Anti-DN/Ivey pool?

[SrslySirius]

I don't have $5k to splash around, but I would really like to bet against Ivey r Negreanu winning a bracelet this summer. Daniel is offering this bet at EVEN MONEY, but has set the minimum wager at $5k. Even if you think both of these guys are superhumans with 700% ROIs, this bet is ridiculous. I'm not usually a gambling man, but I'd love to put a few hundred down on this. Anyone else?

[cmoney]

I don't have $5k to splash around, but I would really like to bet against Ivey r Negreanu winning a bracelet this summer. Daniel is offering this bet at EVEN MONEY, but has set the minimum wager at $5k. Even if you think both of these guys are superhumans with 700% ROIs, this bet is ridiculous. I'm not usually a gambling man, but I'd love to put a few hundred down on this. Anyone else?

Is this for real? Seems too good to be true..

[SrslySirius]

I don't have $5k to splash around, but I would really like to bet against Ivey r Negreanu winning a bracelet this summer. Daniel is offering this bet at EVEN MONEY, but has set the minimum wager at $5k. Even if you think both of these guys are superhumans with 700% ROIs, this bet is ridiculous. I'm not usually a gambling man, but I'd love to put a few hundred down on this. Anyone else?

Is this for real? Seems too good to be true..

I know, right? But it's definitely for real.

http://f5poker.com/poker-news/2014/5...ing-phil-ivey/

[DJ_Chaps]

Ivey is 100% shipping something this year. You read it here first. GL braj.

[DJ_Chaps]

Ivey is 100% shipping something this year. You read it here first. GL braj.

4th post in this thread. I am your new wormhole.

[adamantium]

not gonna lie, took great pleasure in ivey winning this

[shortbuspoker]

I don't have $5k to splash around, but I would really like to bet against Ivey r Negreanu winning a bracelet this summer. Daniel is offering this bet at EVEN MONEY, but has set the minimum wager at $5k. Even if you think both of these guys are superhumans with 700% ROIs, this bet is ridiculous. I'm not usually a gambling man, but I'd love to put a few hundred down on this. Anyone else?

Is this for real? Seems too good to be true..

It's legit. The only caveat is that you have to escrow the money if he doesn't know you. That's not really unreasonable either.

[simpdog]

I don't have $5k to splash around, but I would really like to bet against Ivey r Negreanu winning a bracelet this summer. Daniel is offering this bet at EVEN MONEY, but has set the minimum wager at $5k. Even if you think both of these guys are superhumans with 700% ROIs, this bet is ridiculous. I'm not usually a gambling man, but I'd love to put a few hundred down on this. Anyone else?

SUMMER only? No wsope or wsopa or some fake wsop tourney coming up with 2 entries for 10 million (DN + Ivey)?

I'm in for 1k if Druff brokers it.

[simpdog]

Since 2000

Ivey has won 5 different years (6 if you include Asia)
DN has won 3 years (4 if you include Asia/Europe)

They have won 8/14 years excluding Europe/Asia.

Since 2008 though, they are 2/6 excluding Europe/Asia. Bigger fields/better players/Ivey skipping out.

I thought it was slam dunk but maybe just +EV but not much.

[SrslySirius]

Since 2000

Ivey has won 5 different years (6 if you include Asia)
DN has won 3 years (4 if you include Asia/Europe)

They have won 8/14 years excluding Europe/Asia.

Since 2008 though, they are 2/6 excluding Europe/Asia. Bigger fields/better players/Ivey skipping out.

I thought it was slam dunk but maybe just +EV but not much.

Yes, this is summer only.

I don't think using results from the last 13 years is the best way of looking at it. It's not a very large sample size in terms of tournaments played, and while I respect both players, I think luck has played a large factor and that they're both running well above expectation.

Assuming he played 30 events per year on average, Phil Ivey won a bracelet in 2.3% of the events he played. That's an outlier, even if he is arguably the best player in the world. His true chances of winning a given tournament are waaaaaaay lower than that, especially with modern field sizes.

[SrslySirius]

Average field size at the 2013 WSOP was 1,281. It will probably be bigger this year, but let's be conservative and assume it's the same.

Your average break-even player has a 0.07% chance of winning each event. But Phil Ivey is a superhuman genius and can will himself to win flips via telekinesis, or maybe edge sorting, so he has an ungodly 600% ROI and 0.4% chance to win each event.

If he plays a grueling 45 event schedule, that gives him a 16.6% chance of winning a bracelet.

If we assume that Daniel Negreanu is equally god-like and puts in the same volume, we're still big favorites to win.

[simpdog]

Average field size at the 2013 WSOP was 1,281. It will probably be bigger this year, but let's be conservative and assume it's the same.

Your average break-even player has a 0.07% chance of winning each event. But Phil Ivey is a superhuman genius and can will himself to win flips via telekinesis, or maybe edge sorting, so he has an ungodly 600% ROI and 0.4% chance to win each event.

If he plays a grueling 45 event schedule, that gives him a 16.6% chance of winning a bracelet.

If we assume that Daniel Negreanu is equally god-like and puts in the same volume, we're still big favorites to win.

Right so this runs with the more recent data of they are 2/6 in the last 6 years.

Problem is you also can't do this bet every year for 50 yrs to gain the EV. This is a one time deal.

[Crowe Diddly]

Average field size at the 2013 WSOP was 1,281. It will probably be bigger this year, but let's be conservative and assume it's the same.

Average field size is deceptive. Sure, the NLH tourneys will always have well over a thousand runners, but the stud games, the mixed games, PLH, those are way more likely to go off with 150-300 runners, none of them even sniffing 1K runners.

[uthglitch]

Since 2000

Ivey has won 5 different years (6 if you include Asia)
DN has won 3 years (4 if you include Asia/Europe)

They have won 8/14 years excluding Europe/Asia.

Since 2008 though, they are 2/6 excluding Europe/Asia. Bigger fields/better players/Ivey skipping out.

I thought it was slam dunk but maybe just +EV but not much.

Yes, this is summer only.

I don't think using results from the last 13 years is the best way of looking at it. It's not a very large sample size in terms of tournaments played, and while I respect both players, I think luck has played a large factor and that they're both running well above expectation.

Assuming he played 30 events per year on average, Phil Ivey won a bracelet in 2.3% of the events he played. That's an outlier, even if he is arguably the best player in the world. His true chances of winning a given tournament are waaaaaaay lower than that, especially with modern field sizes.

Hey sirious.

Since you love super human Ivey so much. Just wondering how his super sperm tastes when he came in your mouth? Since he did steal millions from people and all you can do is jock him.
I have to assume that he shot a gooey load in your fan boy mouth. If I'm wrong oops.

[DJ_Chaps]

Yes, this is summer only.

I don't think using results from the last 13 years is the best way of looking at it. It's not a very large sample size in terms of tournaments played, and while I respect both players, I think luck has played a large factor and that they're both running well above expectation.

Assuming he played 30 events per year on average, Phil Ivey won a bracelet in 2.3% of the events he played. That's an outlier, even if he is arguably the best player in the world. His true chances of winning a given tournament are waaaaaaay lower than that, especially with modern field sizes.

Hey sirious.

Since you love super human Ivey so much. Just wondering how his super sperm tastes when he came in your mouth? Since he did steal millions from people and all you can do is jock him.
I have to assume that he shot a gooey load in your fan boy mouth. If I'm wrong oops.

LOL @ Ivey stole.

[SrslySirius]

Yes, this is summer only.

I don't think using results from the last 13 years is the best way of looking at it. It's not a very large sample size in terms of tournaments played, and while I respect both players, I think luck has played a large factor and that they're both running well above expectation.

Assuming he played 30 events per year on average, Phil Ivey won a bracelet in 2.3% of the events he played. That's an outlier, even if he is arguably the best player in the world. His true chances of winning a given tournament are waaaaaaay lower than that, especially with modern field sizes.

Hey sirious.

Since you love super human Ivey so much. Just wondering how his super sperm tastes when he came in your mouth? Since he did steal millions from people and all you can do is jock him.
I have to assume that he shot a gooey load in your fan boy mouth. If I'm wrong oops.

Hey idiot.

I was doing a best-case analysis, being extremely generous in terms of ROI and volume to drive the point home that winning bracelets is fucking hard, even if you're impossibly good.

Before you ask, no, I don't think Negreanu has a 600% ROI either. Or can manipulate cards with his mind.