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Thread: Anti-DN/Ivey pool?

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    Anti-DN/Ivey pool?

    I don't have $5k to splash around, but I would really like to bet against Ivey r Negreanu winning a bracelet this summer. Daniel is offering this bet at EVEN MONEY, but has set the minimum wager at $5k. Even if you think both of these guys are superhumans with 700% ROIs, this bet is ridiculous. I'm not usually a gambling man, but I'd love to put a few hundred down on this. Anyone else?

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    Platinum cmoney's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SrslySirius View Post
    I don't have $5k to splash around, but I would really like to bet against Ivey r Negreanu winning a bracelet this summer. Daniel is offering this bet at EVEN MONEY, but has set the minimum wager at $5k. Even if you think both of these guys are superhumans with 700% ROIs, this bet is ridiculous. I'm not usually a gambling man, but I'd love to put a few hundred down on this. Anyone else?

    Is this for real? Seems too good to be true..
    :freelewfather

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    Quote Originally Posted by cmoney View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by SrslySirius View Post
    I don't have $5k to splash around, but I would really like to bet against Ivey r Negreanu winning a bracelet this summer. Daniel is offering this bet at EVEN MONEY, but has set the minimum wager at $5k. Even if you think both of these guys are superhumans with 700% ROIs, this bet is ridiculous. I'm not usually a gambling man, but I'd love to put a few hundred down on this. Anyone else?

    Is this for real? Seems too good to be true..
    I know, right? But it's definitely for real.

    http://f5poker.com/poker-news/2014/5...ing-phil-ivey/

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    Nova Scotia's #1 Party Rocker!!!!11 DJ_Chaps's Avatar
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    Ivey is 100% shipping something this year. You read it here first. GL braj.

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    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SrslySirius View Post
    I don't have $5k to splash around, but I would really like to bet against Ivey r Negreanu winning a bracelet this summer. Daniel is offering this bet at EVEN MONEY, but has set the minimum wager at $5k. Even if you think both of these guys are superhumans with 700% ROIs, this bet is ridiculous. I'm not usually a gambling man, but I'd love to put a few hundred down on this. Anyone else?
    SUMMER only? No wsope or wsopa or some fake wsop tourney coming up with 2 entries for 10 million (DN + Ivey)?

    I'm in for 1k if Druff brokers it.

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    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Since 2000

    Ivey has won 5 different years (6 if you include Asia)
    DN has won 3 years (4 if you include Asia/Europe)

    They have won 8/14 years excluding Europe/Asia.

    Since 2008 though, they are 2/6 excluding Europe/Asia. Bigger fields/better players/Ivey skipping out.

    I thought it was slam dunk but maybe just +EV but not much.

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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Since 2000

    Ivey has won 5 different years (6 if you include Asia)
    DN has won 3 years (4 if you include Asia/Europe)

    They have won 8/14 years excluding Europe/Asia.

    Since 2008 though, they are 2/6 excluding Europe/Asia. Bigger fields/better players/Ivey skipping out.

    I thought it was slam dunk but maybe just +EV but not much.
    Yes, this is summer only.

    I don't think using results from the last 13 years is the best way of looking at it. It's not a very large sample size in terms of tournaments played, and while I respect both players, I think luck has played a large factor and that they're both running well above expectation.

    Assuming he played 30 events per year on average, Phil Ivey won a bracelet in 2.3% of the events he played. That's an outlier, even if he is arguably the best player in the world. His true chances of winning a given tournament are waaaaaaay lower than that, especially with modern field sizes.

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    Average field size at the 2013 WSOP was 1,281. It will probably be bigger this year, but let's be conservative and assume it's the same.

    Your average break-even player has a 0.07% chance of winning each event. But Phil Ivey is a superhuman genius and can will himself to win flips via telekinesis, or maybe edge sorting, so he has an ungodly 600% ROI and 0.4% chance to win each event.

    If he plays a grueling 45 event schedule, that gives him a 16.6% chance of winning a bracelet.

    If we assume that Daniel Negreanu is equally god-like and puts in the same volume, we're still big favorites to win.

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    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SrslySirius View Post
    Average field size at the 2013 WSOP was 1,281. It will probably be bigger this year, but let's be conservative and assume it's the same.

    Your average break-even player has a 0.07% chance of winning each event. But Phil Ivey is a superhuman genius and can will himself to win flips via telekinesis, or maybe edge sorting, so he has an ungodly 600% ROI and 0.4% chance to win each event.

    If he plays a grueling 45 event schedule, that gives him a 16.6% chance of winning a bracelet.

    If we assume that Daniel Negreanu is equally god-like and puts in the same volume, we're still big favorites to win.
    Right so this runs with the more recent data of they are 2/6 in the last 6 years.

    Problem is you also can't do this bet every year for 50 yrs to gain the EV. This is a one time deal.

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    Diamond shortbuspoker's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmoney View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by SrslySirius View Post
    I don't have $5k to splash around, but I would really like to bet against Ivey r Negreanu winning a bracelet this summer. Daniel is offering this bet at EVEN MONEY, but has set the minimum wager at $5k. Even if you think both of these guys are superhumans with 700% ROIs, this bet is ridiculous. I'm not usually a gambling man, but I'd love to put a few hundred down on this. Anyone else?

    Is this for real? Seems too good to be true..
    It's legit. The only caveat is that you have to escrow the money if he doesn't know you. That's not really unreasonable either.

    Name:  Daniel Negreanu  RealKidPoker  on Twitter.png
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Size:  33.7 KB

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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by SrslySirius View Post
    Average field size at the 2013 WSOP was 1,281. It will probably be bigger this year, but let's be conservative and assume it's the same.

    Your average break-even player has a 0.07% chance of winning each event. But Phil Ivey is a superhuman genius and can will himself to win flips via telekinesis, or maybe edge sorting, so he has an ungodly 600% ROI and 0.4% chance to win each event.

    If he plays a grueling 45 event schedule, that gives him a 16.6% chance of winning a bracelet.

    If we assume that Daniel Negreanu is equally god-like and puts in the same volume, we're still big favorites to win.
    Right so this runs with the more recent data of they are 2/6 in the last 6 years.

    Problem is you also can't do this bet every year for 50 yrs to gain the EV. This is a one time deal.
    It's a fairly low variance bet, but sure, I wouldn't bet the house on it. But I still want some action.

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    PFA Emeritus Crowe Diddly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SrslySirius View Post
    Average field size at the 2013 WSOP was 1,281. It will probably be bigger this year, but let's be conservative and assume it's the same.
    Average field size is deceptive. Sure, the NLH tourneys will always have well over a thousand runners, but the stud games, the mixed games, PLH, those are way more likely to go off with 150-300 runners, none of them even sniffing 1K runners.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Crowe Diddly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by SrslySirius View Post
    Average field size at the 2013 WSOP was 1,281. It will probably be bigger this year, but let's be conservative and assume it's the same.
    Average field size is deceptive. Sure, the NLH tourneys will always have well over a thousand runners, but the stud games, the mixed games, PLH, those are way more likely to go off with 150-300 runners, none of them even sniffing 1K runners.
    Admittedly, I did forget that the 10k events are coming back, so perhaps the average field size will get smaller. But I can't imagine it will be by a huge amount.

    EDIT: Corrected. You're right, it's not the best way of looking at it. Perhaps I should estimate the field sizes of the small events, calc the chances of winning those events, and add that probability to that of winning the larger field events.

    EDIT 2: Then again, we can't exactly estimate his edge as being massive against those pro-heavy fields. That first probability is probably in the neighborhood of 10%.
    Last edited by SrslySirius; 05-14-2014 at 09:38 AM.

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    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    On another note he's sellling off 50% of his one drop action

    @RealKidPoker 49m
    Selling 50% of my action for One Drop. Email pattylandis@hotmail.com for details if interested in having a piece of me.

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    I haven't crunched any numbers yet, but I'm beginning to suspect that it's too easy to win bracelets this year with stuff like 10k Razz and the 56-player cap in One Drop for this bet to be viable. DN might actually have the best of it here.

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    Diamond PLOL's Avatar
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    I'm prob in for a couple hundo and a sweat
    TRUMP 2024!

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

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    The Bank of Timex has spoken, and it likes DN's side. Well fuck.

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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    He might be willing to do a 5k with me with no escrow. We aren't friends, but he knows me somewhat, and especially appreciates that we share a disdain for the Howard and Annie (even before the Full Tilt debacle).

    It's a good question as to whether or not this is a good bet. The small-field 10k events are where these two will have the best shot at doing it. For example, at the 5k limit hold 'em last year, there were only 170 runners, and I bet it will go down a little this year now that it's 10k. Ivey and Negreanu are both very good at limit hold 'em, as well as other limit games where we will be seeing 10k events.

    Their disadvantage comes due to the fact that, in a small field heavy with pros, the final table becomes more of a matter of who runs the best rather than who is the best. So they will need some luck to win a bracelet, but if they enter enough small-field events, they might have a better than 50% shot at scoring at least one between the two of them.

    Anyway, if people want to escrow through me, I will collect the money and throw in a bit myself, and we can get this done.

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    I'm in for a hundred if it gets done

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    I'm in for atleast a hundo.

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