Anti-DN/Ivey pool?

[Sidewinder]

Haralabos Voulgaris @haralabob · 23m
That Ivey and @RealKidPoker to win a bracelet bet at even money was straight up stealing.

Haralabos Voulgaris ‏@haralabob 2m
I said right price was -200 or so RT @chinamaniac: @haralabob Did you calculate odds on it and bet it ? or just monday morning Qbing?

Would love to see these calculations, because that makes zero sense to me.

I think he is giving Ivey/Negreanu too much credit.

Keep in mind that we ended up losing on a $1500 event with almost 500 entries. Losing this way was actually kind of a fluke. If we were going to lose, I was almost sure it would be in one of the events I marked "blue" or "purple" (i.e. field of less than 200).

With that said, obviously Haralabob is an expert at figuring out betting odds, so I won't dismiss what he's saying.

He has their edge over the field way higher than we did.

[WillieMcFML]

dieIveydie coming soon!

[4BET]

Druff what color tourney was this lol..?

red

Not even one of the ones I was really worried about, to be honest.

Ivey had been playing the 50k when this started, I didn't even know he was in this till day 2, The fucking enter whenever you want rule is what cost us, This rule is bullshit, Should be closed 2 hours after it starts. This allows them to enter up to 7 hours late with a short stack and fire away and if they win a few pots which are big at this point then they are right at the top of the chips counts, DN did this a few times

[Daly]

Haralabos Voulgaris @haralabob · 23m
That Ivey and @RealKidPoker to win a bracelet bet at even money was straight up stealing.

Haralabos Voulgaris ‏@haralabob 2m
I said right price was -200 or so RT @chinamaniac: @haralabob Did you calculate odds on it and bet it ? or just monday morning Qbing?

Oh you think?

Seriously what a dickhead thing to say.

Where was all of this -200 talk and "straight up stealing" when we were looking at the One Drop and the $10K Stud 8 left for big tournaments.

[JimmyG_415]

Haralabos Voulgaris @haralabob · 23m
That Ivey and @RealKidPoker to win a bracelet bet at even money was straight up stealing.

Haralabos Voulgaris ‏@haralabob 2m
I said right price was -200 or so RT @chinamaniac: @haralabob Did you calculate odds on it and bet it ? or just monday morning Qbing?

Would love to see these calculations, because that makes zero sense to me.

I think he is giving Ivey/Negreanu too much credit.

Keep in mind that we ended up losing on a $1500 event with almost 500 entries. Losing this way was actually kind of a fluke. If we were going to lose, I was almost sure it would be in one of the events I marked "blue" or "purple" (i.e. field of less than 200).

With that said, obviously Haralabob is an expert at figuring out betting odds, so I won't dismiss what he's saying.

http://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sho...l=1#post241224

[simpdog]

Not only is DN having an amazing WSOP, but his assistant is chipleader in the women's event.

[shortbuspoker]

After hearing Druff declare our bet a winner on the last podcast, I had a feeling we were doomed. I looked at the pictures of the final table and it was obvious none of them had the heart to win. Some idiot in a faggy hat, some old jewish nit, etc. Every picture I clicked on, instead of the image of the player I just got a white flag waving back and forth.

This old nit has zero chance to beat Ivey heads up. Not that it matters, feels like for about 50k he takes a dive.

Guess the news, we lose.

[Crowe Diddly]

He is full of shit, I don't have proof as the tweet had already been deleted, but I did I post this early on,
he put the line at 250 on the no, they won't win one.

Maybe you are the one full of shit?

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/haralabob/status/466401536051249152

[DJ_Chaps]

Ivey is 100% shipping something this year. You read it here first. GL braj.

4th post in this thread. I am your new wormhole.

[adamantium]

not gonna lie, took great pleasure in ivey winning this

[4Dragons]

TAKE IT DOWN

[JimmyG_415]

He is full of shit, I don't have proof as the tweet had already been deleted, but I did I post this early on,
he put the line at 250 on the no, they won't win one.

Maybe you are the one full of shit?

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/haralabob/status/466401536051249152

I came here to edit my post to say "I might have read it wrong, but"........." in place of the "he is full of shit" part.
That is funny, I was totally off.
I couldn't find the tweet before I posted, so I must've assumed he was betting the no, I mean seriously, how could you possibly come up w-2.50 that they would win one?

Fucking guy is impressive.

[simpdog]

TAKE IT DOWN

TOOK IT DOWN

[shortbuspoker]

Then while this is going on only a few days before the One Drop, the Bellagio throws a $100K that draws 85 people. 4 way chop at the end- Dan Smith $2,044,766, Jason Mercier $1,622181 Tom Marchese $1,465,451 and Jason Somerville $1,327,352. Expected to be the third highest prize pool of the summer including the WSOP.

[blueodum]

I think Druff ignored or underestimated the "closing factor". Remember the bet was not about EV, but bracelets and the two are not the same.

The most important factor to consider is - given X number of final tables, how effective is the player relative to the field at closing. There are many players who make final tables with relative ease that can't finish and others who seem very good at it. Ivey, by track record, is very good at it.

A low buy in 500-player 8-game tournament is right in Ivey's wheelhouse as many of the players will totally suck at several games and almost none will be as well rounded. Plus you can expect a relatively soft final table because of the low buy in and because many of the good players will have been busy with the 50K and 10K limit holdem.

[simpdog]

Then while this is going on only a few days before the One Drop, the Bellagio throws a $100K that draws 85 people. 4 way chop at the end- Dan Smith $2,044,766, Jason Mercier $1,622181 Tom Marchese $1,465,451 and Jason Somerville $1,327,352. Expected to be the third highest prize pool of the summer including the WSOP.

Mercier won with TT vs Smith's AA with 5 left. Otherwise hr is out in 5th for 600k

1 million dollar perfect timing to lay a beat down. Smith did still get the most so he must have had a food chip lead.

Also sucks for Doug Polk who busted 5th

[sonatine]

Maybe you are the one full of shit?

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/haralabob/status/466401536051249152

I came here to edit my post to say "I might have read it wrong, but"........." in place of the "he is full of shit" part.
That is funny, I was totally off.
I couldn't find the tweet before I posted, so I must've assumed he was betting the no, I mean seriously, how could you possibly come up w-2.50 that they would win one?

Fucking guy is impressive.

About 70 events... with a thousand random people in each, .1% you win one.. * 70 = 7% chance of winning... * 2 people = 14% chance strictly based on math.


So if you assume Ivey and DN are 15x better prepared to win a bracelet than the average poker herb, right there you have -210 odds for a bink.

HV put them at just over 15x, obv.

[sonatine]

And yes some of the events run in parallel but also some of the events have only 500 people, so on, so feel like the math proofs out to the -250 range well enough.

[zealanddonk]

I think Druff ignored or underestimated the "closing factor". Remember the bet was not about EV, but bracelets and the two are not the same.

The most important factor to consider is - given X number of final tables, how effective is the player relative to the field at closing. There are many players who make final tables with relative ease that can't finish and others who seem very good at it. Ivey, by track record, is very good at it.

A low buy in 500-player 8-game tournament is right in Ivey's wheelhouse as many of the players will totally suck at several games and almost none will be as well rounded. Plus you can expect a relatively soft final table because of the low buy in and because many of the good players will have been busy with the 50K and 10K limit holdem.

You have to balance that against the rumour that Ivey was going to play more cash and less tournaments as WSOP went on.
Probably the only plus side from this, EM2 was betting against Ivey only, so he's in the same boat as you.

[BetCheckBet]

I came here to edit my post to say "I might have read it wrong, but"........." in place of the "he is full of shit" part.
That is funny, I was totally off.
I couldn't find the tweet before I posted, so I must've assumed he was betting the no, I mean seriously, how could you possibly come up w-2.50 that they would win one?

Fucking guy is impressive.

About 70 events... with a thousand random people in each, .1% you win one.. * 70 = 7% chance of winning... * 2 people = 14% chance strictly based on math.


So if you assume Ivey and DN are 15x better prepared to win a bracelet than the average poker herb, right there you have -210 odds for a bink.

HV put them at just over 15x, obv.

Except some events have 100 people, hence why averaging is bad idea here. You have to look at events individually.

Druff did a good job breaking this down in other thread explaining that really only a few events mattered (low entry). The big question was trying to calculate Ivey and Daniel's ROI. All they really needed was to be 2-3 times (ROI 100-200) to make it an easy profitable bet for them. If they were 15x more likely this bet is like -1000 for them.

Druff had been pinning them around 30-50% ROI I think. Hence why he took the bet