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Thread: 2014 kentucky derby (free program + analysis picks)

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    2014 kentucky derby (free program + analysis picks)

    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1484318

    i will update this w/ analysis and other race handicrapping that i find on the internetz...please do the same

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    wall street journal -predictiform

    http://blogs.wsj.com/dailyfix/2014/0...entucky-derby/


    ----------------------------------------

    1 Vicar’s In Trouble comes to Kentucky as the from the 1 hole. He is going to have the break perfectly and get right to the front but if he gets a clean break and can get right to the front he will have the shortest trip around.

    2 Harry’s Holiday is an easy toss. He has not won any graded stakes races. If the derby is his first one I would be extremely shocked. Lets be realistic, he simply does not belong here.

    3 Unce Sigh is a New York based horse that had a nice rivalry with Samraat throughout the spring battling head to head with him in a few races at Aqueduct. He never finished ahead of Samraat so based on that its hard to like him in this spot. Based on his post position i'd ecpect him to head right up front heading into the first turn. I just don't see a scenerio that has him in contention coming down the stretch
    .

    Danza won the Arkansas Derby at odds of 41-1 and he did it in a . With only 4 lifetime starts its hard to get a read on him. But his Arkansas Derby was so impressive that I am going to play this horse under California Chrome in most if not all of my exotic bets. To play devil’s advocate a lot of time when a horse improves that much in one race there is a bounce factor. But I can not ignore that performance in Arkansas. Big time win…
    California Chrome is this years rags to riches story. His owners bought his Dam (Mother), Love theChase, for $8,000. They then bred Love the Chase to an unproven California based stallion called Lucky Pulpit for $2,500. The result: the millionaire and possibly the most unlikely Kentucky Derby favorite ever, California Chrome.Over the who is considered by many to be one of the greatest horses of all time. Ribot was considered the ultimate ‘Super Horse’.Undefeated in sixteen races, he won over all distances, from 5 furlongs to 1 ¾ miles in three different countries and on all types of track conditions. Flat out - California Chrome is special.

    Samraat was undefeated in his first 5 starts until his 2nd place finish in the . Another horse who likes to run in front running fashion should contribute to a fast moving pace. When you run 6 career starts and finish in first in 5 of them and 2nd in the other its hard to say that this horse is not a contender. However horses coming out of NY haven't fared too well in recent history. Not one of my favorites but at the same time you can't totally ignore him.

    We Miss Artie has not raced since he won the Grade 3 over an artificial surface on March 14th. Look, these 20 horses who enter the gate on the first Saturday in May are all premium talent. Every year 30,000 thoroughbred horses are born, 15,000 actually make it to race, only 20 make the gate on Derby day, 1 wins and is considered the greatest of his generation. This is not that horse.

    General A Rod ran some . He finished in the money in all 5 of his career races and finished 3rd in the Florida Derby. Not a bad horse by any means but I think he might be in a little over his head here. Post position 8 is considered a premium spot to be in so if he hit the top 4 I wouldn't be that surprised but you can't bet every horse and have to make some tough tosses.
    Vinceremos is a Todd Pletcher horse and enters the field coming off of a last place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes. That clearly wasn't his day. Maybe he didn't like the synthetic track. Good thing for him is that the Derby is run on dirt. All of his other 4 races were on dirt finishing with and 2 second place finishes. He has not really beaten any quality horses and is kind of a tough horse to get a read on. This is the type of horse that could finish dead last or could surprise everyone at huge odds and finish 3rd or 4th and lead to a lot of torn up tickets and huge payouts. Based on entering the Derby off of a last place finish you have to toss this horse.
    Wildcat Red is a fighter. Another front running horse, but a front running horse that will fight to the end. He comes to Kentucky off of a 2nd place finish in the . This horse will not quit. In his race previous to the Florida Derby he battled General A Rod nose for nose all the way around the track and prevailed in the end. He has won 5 of his career 7 starts and his 2 losses were less than a ½ length combined at the wire. His pedigree says he can't stay the distance as these horses stretch out to 1 ¼ miles but pedigree can not measure heart and this horse might have the biggest. What he has to do is a tall task considering his pedigree, front running style, and what should be a blazing pace but if any horse in this race is going to be able to withstand the pace its Wildcat Red. I think he has a chance to be right there coming down the stretch. I will play him heavy under California Chrome in exotics.
    Hoppertunity - SCRATCHED
    Dance With Fate enters the Derby coming off a win in the Grade 1 and was a non factor finishing 8th. Although I may consider playing this horse on the back end of a few tri and super bets based solely on the fact that the Blue Grass is one of the big 6 prep races and a win that can’t be totally ignored.
    Chitu is an interesting horse. He has only made 4 starts and had won 3 of them with one second place finish. He has not raced since March 14th, winning the .
    Medal Count is another horse that is unproven on dirt. He comes to the Derby off a 2nd place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes on synthetic. In 7 career races he has only raced twice on dirt finishing 5th and 11th. However he is steadily improving and in his last race in the Blue Grass Stakes he finished 2nd off only 8 days of rest. Word out of Churchill is he has actually taken quite nicely to the track. Deep longshot play.
    Tapiture is a horse that for whatever reason im very indifferent about. I thought he was overrated going off at 2-1 in the and my gut turned out to be right. He finished a well beaten 4th 7 lengths behind the leader. In all fairness he was stuck out with a 4-5 wide trip. However in his previous 2 races before the Arkansas Derby he did finish ahead of Ride On Curlin who I kinda like. Originally I was going to toss this horse but the more I think about it Im going to thro him in on my tri.
    Intense Holiday was not one of my favorites. But the buzz out of Louisville is that this horse has worked great over the surface and is primed to run a big race. He finished 2nd to Vicar’s In Trouble in the Louisiana Derby and actually beat Vicar’s In Trouble 1 month before in the . He has won 2 of his 8 lifetime starts and he is battle tested considering his last 6 races are all graded stakes races. Based on the buzz he is creating alone i'm going to have to find a way to play him in exotic bets.
    Commanding Curve comes to Louisville off of a 3rd place finish in the Louisiana Derby. He has finished behind Vicar’s in Trouble and Intense Holiday in both of his last 2 races. I don't believe he can be a factor. Toss
    Candy Boy comes out of a 3rd place finish in the . He has 2 wins in 7 career starts. I do think he is the type of horse that can get the distance. I just don't know if he is fast enough. A month ago he was considered a much better prospect. He looked like a 2nd tier horse (or 3rd tier if tier 1 is California Chrome by himself) in the Santa Anita Derby. However would not be shocked if he was passing tired horses in the stretch to come up and hit 3rd or 4th… but I think thats his best case scenario.
    Ride On Curlin is the son of North America’s richest race horse and 2007 Kentucky Derby runner up Curlin. He has 9 career races and has not won a race over 6 furlongs but has finished top 3 in 8 of the 9. The other being a 4th place finish back in September. In his last race he finished 2nd to Danza in the . This horse for whatever reason has a tendency to get stuck wide around turns thus although he isn't winning these races he is covering a lot of ground. If he could get a good trip for once and can save some ground he may be able to conserve some energy for a stretch run. Word out of Churchill is he is full of energy right now. I would be shocked if he won the race but i will use him on the back of a few trifecta and superfecta bets.
    Wicked Strong is a horse that kinda came out of nowhere to win the Wood Memorial. He (2nd place finisher in the 2010 Derby)
    21. Pablo Del Monte gets into the derby following the scratch of Hoppertunity. He comes off of a third place finish in the Blue grass Stakes. I dont see him as any type of contender so no changes to my betting strategy based on this horse.





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    HORSE ANDREW BEYER'S ANALYSIS ODDS
    1. Vicar's In Trouble

    Trainer: Mike Maker
    Jockey: Rosie Napravnik
    Napravnik bids to become the first female jockey ever to win the Run for the Roses. She has an outside chance -- she rode this colt to a decisive victory in the Louisiana Derby.
    30-1

    BSF: 97
    2. Harry's Holiday

    Trainer: Mike Maker
    Jockey: Corey Lanerie
    How seriously can you take an ex-claimer whose biggest victory came in the 96Rock Stakes at Turfway Park?
    50-1

    BSF: 85
    3. Uncle Sigh

    Trainer: Gary Contessa
    Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
    Six months ago, Contessa told the owner, "We're going to run in the Kentucky Derby." He immediately regretted this premature promise, but the colt earned his way here with two second-place finishes in New York stakes.
    30-1

    BSF: 96
    4. Danza

    Trainer: Todd Pletcher
    Jockey: Joe Bravo
    Pletcher's colt made an astonishing improvement to win the Arkansas Derby at odds of 41 to 1. If he improves further, he would be a strong contender.

    10-1

    BSF:102
    5. California Chrome

    Trainer: Art Sherman
    Jockey: Victor Espinosa
    With four straight victories by a combined total of 24 lengths, the modestly bred colt from California deserves to be a solid favorite. But he's no lock: The presence of several other speedsters in the field means that he'll be under pressure from the start

    5-2

    BSF:108
    6. Samraat

    Trainer: Rick Violette
    Jockey: Jose Ortiz
    Quick colt won five straight races in New York before Wicked Strong beat him in the Wood Memorial. Trainer has total confidence in 20-year-old jockey, the youngest in the field.
    15-1

    BSF: 96
    7. We Miss Artie

    Trainer: Todd Pletcher
    Jockey: Javier Castellano
    He's never won on dirt, he has trained poorly and Pletcher is lukewarm (at best) about running. But Eclipse Award-winning owner Ken Ramsey loves the limelight and wouldn't pass up a chance to be in the Derby.

    50-1

    BSF: 89
    8. General a Rod

    Trainer: Mike Maker
    Jockey: Joel Rosario
    No jokes about performance-enhancing drugs, please. He's named after Armando Rodriguez, who owned the colt until he sold him Monday. Probably a smart move. Derby distance is probably too long for the speedster.
    15-1

    BSF:101
    9. Vinceremos

    Trainer: Todd Pletcher
    Jockey: Joe Rocco Jr.
    Lone stakes victory -- by a nose -- came against a weak field at Tampa Bay Downs. He's not going to help Pletcher's Derby record, currently 1-for 36.

    30-1

    BSF: 90
    10. Wildcat Red

    Trainer: Jose Garoffalo
    Jockey: Luis Saez
    Tenacious front-runner won two stakes at Gulfstream this winter and lost a photo in another. But neither his running style nor his pedigree suggests that he wants to go 1 1/4 miles.
    15-1

    BSF:101

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    12. Dance With Fate

    Trainer: Peter Eurton
    Jockey: Corey Nakatani
    He captured the Blue Grass Stakes -- which is not necessarily a recommendation. Since Keeneland installed Polytrack, Blue Grass winners have fared poorly in the Derby. This stretch-running colt appears to be much better on synthetic tracks than on dirt.
    20-1

    BSF: 9713. Chitu

    Trainer: Bob Baffert
    Jockey: Martin Garcia
    He has high speed, and he has a three-time Derby-winning trainer. The negatives: He hasn't raced since March 23 and he's been suffering from a rare hoof condition called seedy toe. Baffert was uncertain last week about running in the Derby -- not a good sign.


    20-1

    BSF:10214. Medal Count

    Trainer: Dale Romans
    Jockey: Robbie Albarado Jr.
    Longshot appears to prefer running on turf or synthetic tracks, but Romans' prior Derby entrants have done surprisingly well when they look unimposing on paper.
    20-1

    BSF: 9415. Tapiture

    Trainer: Steve Asmussen
    Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
    Not the sentimental favorite. A PETA video accuses Asmussen of treating horses inhumanely and suggests (without proof) that Santana has used a buzzer -- an illegal device to make horses run faster by giving them electrical shocks.


    15-1

    BSF: 9816. Intense Holiday

    Trainer: Todd Pletcher
    Jockey: John Velazquez
    Stretch-running winner of the Risen Star Stakes needs to improve, but he could do so. Clockers like the way he has trained at Churchill Downs this week.


    12-1

    BSF: 9717. Commanding Curve

    Trainer: Dallas Stewart
    Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan
    When Ring Weekend got sick, this stretch-runner moved from No. 21 to No. 20 on the list of qualifiers. His best race was a third-place finish in the Louisiana Derby.
    50-1

    BSF: 8918. Candy Boy

    Trainer: John Sadler
    Jockey: Gary Stevens
    Stevens has won the Derby three times, and at 51 he is still riding in great form. His mount has been running well in tough California competition, but California Chrome beat him soundly in the Santa Anita Derby.
    20-1

    BSF: 9619. Ride on Curlin

    Trainer: William Gowan
    Jockey: Calvin Borel
    Borel has won the Derby three times; His rail-hugging ride on 50-1 Mine That Bird was one of the greatest in the race's history. He'll need some wizardry this year; His mount has never won a stakes race.
    15-1

    BSF: 9820. Wicked Strong

    Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens
    Jockey: Rajiv Maragh
    Allen Jerkens, one of the all-time great trainers, never won a Derby, but his son could do it here. Colt rallied to win the Wood Memorial impressively, and he could benefit from a fast pace in this field.
    8-1

    BSF:10421. Pablo del Monte

    Trainer: Wesley Ward
    Jockey: Jeffrey Sanchez
    Longshot was No. 21 on the eligibility list, but he got a chance to run after Hoppertunity was scratched because of an injury. He may be the fastest colt in the field, and he could have the early lead—for a while.
    50-1

    BSF: 91

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    1) Vicar’s In Trouble: A small compact horse, who seems to be a few sizes too small for the added distance of this race (at least for now). He was able to dictate the early going in the Louisiana Derby, setting a moderate pace which was enough to secure the win. Prior to that, Vicar’s in Trouble was easily passed in the stretch in the Risen Star, hanging on for an unconvincing third. That’s troubling and suggests he’s one the many speed horses in this race. The pedigree of this colt has sprinting written all over it. Capable rider, but don’t see it happening. Oddsmakers have him around 20-1, and that seems fair.

    2) Harry’s Holiday: There’s usually a horse or two in every Derby field that you can safely put a line through. Only decision here is what colour pen you prefer: red or black?

    3) Uncle Sigh: An interesting longshot who came close to getting a second win in the Withers and Gotham. A subdued effort in the Wood Memorial had him trail early and never really get into contention. The first of two contenders who only have a single win in their records. Trainer Gary Contessa has opted to use blinkers on Uncle Sigh for the first time in this race. When pressed for a quote, Contessa has said “I don’t think they will hurt him”. Ok sure, but can they help him??

    4) Danza: Yes, he was named after that actor. In recent years, the Arkansas Derby has a knack for producing lightly raced horses who are competitive in big races. Could Danza follow in the storyline of Curlin and Bodemeister? If so, expect a close but no cigar moment in the Kentucky Derby for Danza. Most Derby watchers prefer to see a few more races in a potential contender and so far they’ve been right. It doesn’t help that he’s been running in some very small fields, with the largest being the eight horse Arkansas Derby. He’ll have to navigate a much bigger field and avoid getting blocked late. He had a golden trip in the Arkansas Derby, but he also moved very gamely to win. I can’t say there was anything flukey about it. My initial take had him around 15-1 but I noticed a few bookmakers have lined him up between 8-1 and 10-1. I don’t like using pedigree as a deciding factor but there is some nice lineage in this one. Hard not to like despite the lack of experience.

    5) California Chome: California Chrome has been declared the clear favourite this year. He’s been breezing through the Southern California circuit, taking everything from state-bred stakes to the Santa Anita Derby. He’s had an easy time of it, winning by multiple lengths. His last race couldn’t have been setup better by the early speed horse. The first caveat I’d like to present: California form doesn’t translate into easy success when shipping out East. I have reservations on that blend of dirt they use at Santa Anita, where early speed holds and it’s almost like racing on pavement at times. Second point: I’m also not overly confident about the jockey, but to his credit he won the Derby back in 2002 with War Emblem. Still, I can’t get past the thought of some kind of trip trouble or tactical mistake early. Finally, handicapping aside, you always get superstitious when ownership guarantees a win….this game has ways of keeping the brash humble. To be honest, I thought I’ll Have Another was a more impressive horse than California Chrome, despite the latter’s slightly faster win in the Santa Anita Derby.

    6) Samraat: Along with Wicked Strong, he’s another horse who’s taken the NY route to Louisville. He’s only been entered in graded stakes this year, so you know the connections rate this one highly. As for my take, he just held on for a win in the Gotham with two other horses right behind, so that wasn’t overly exciting stuff. It also looked like he had to be ridden quite hard to get the narrow advantage. Later, in the Wood memorial, he stalked the early speed and looked promising during the second turn, but his late run was quite lacking in comparison to eventual winner Wicked Strong. In fact, he again had to labour to earn second place over post-time favourite Social Inclusion. Another tough effort would be too much I think…

    7) We Miss Artie: Similar story to Dance with Fate: a pedigree for the turf, and having early success on artificial surfaces and grass. His worst performances have come on the dirt, both being graded stakes (Fountain of Youth and Breeders’ Cup juvenile). His win in the Spiral looked visually impressive; it never seemed he was going to catch the two horses ahead of him. It’s going to take more than a win in the Spiral to be a Derby contender though. Good horse but wrong race…

    8) General A Rod: Further down the list of Derby contenders, we find General A Rod. He was locked in a battle throughout the Fountain of Youth with Derby hopeful Wildcat Red. Wildcat Red got the head bob in that one, and it was truly an even effort by both horses. The Florida Derby had a bit more distinct result: stalking behind Wildcat Red, General A Rod had a great opportunity to win the race. Unfortunately, he was slowly plodding at the far turn and seemingly indifferent towards getting a better placing. You like to see a horse have a better showing going into the Derby, but there’s time in his career to show something more. Joel Rosario has opted to ride this horse again, and he’s got enough racing experience to avoid a speed duel.

    9) Vinceremos: Clearly did not like the polytrack at Keeneland, with a fourteenth place finish in the Blue Grass. Has had better success on the dirt, running a determined second in the Tampa Bay derby. Can’t overlook the fact he hasn’t beaten much in the way of competition and will be facing more accomplished horses. His last effort and running against weaker company makes him a great contrarian play however. He hasn’t had a chance to prove what he can do against better company. The betting public will likely send him off at an inflated price. Could hit the board.

    10) Wildcat Red: Has raced exclusively at Gulfstream Park, starting last September in an eye-opening maiden win by eight lengths. A promising start in two year-old sprints has translated into game performances at a distance in 2014. Setting a fast pace in the Fountain of Youth, Wildcat Red was pushed to the limit near the wire but held on for the win. A heastrong horse, he again led in the Florida Derby, setting a more sensible pace. As challenges started to fly at the far turn, he was able to assert himself in the late going and almost pulled off the victory, settling for a close second. Attempting to wire the Kentucky Derby would be a high risk, low reward strategy, unless coming in 14th holds some kind of special merit. Of note is the carousel of jockeys this horse has had. Luis Saez gets the call this time, and hopefully his big race success with Will Take Charge can help with the timing and patience needed to win the Derby.

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    12) Dance with Fate: Don’t think I gave this one much of a shot in last year’s Breeders’ Cup juvenile, but his career in 2014 has seen him bag the Blue Grass at Keeneland. All three 2014 races have been on artificial dirt or turf, which makes one wonder about his tepid efforts at Santa Anita (fast dirt?). Was that end of season fatigue or is he better on surfaces that allow for more traction like grass? He seemed to relish the Keeneland polytrack, making a “sweeping move” six wide. More proof for the latter theory I suppose. In past years, I’ve taken a stand against winners of the Blue Grass, arguing the race is not significant for the Derby while contested on polytrack. Seems like Keeneland officials agree: they’re switching back to a natural dirt surface in 2015. Could this decision change if Dance with Fate wins the Kentucky Derby? Funny things can happen in this game…

    13) Chitu: The least experienced horse in the field, with four career races. Yet, he has managed to win or come second in all of them. Chitu will be going against Derby history on lightly raced horses; don’t say you weren’t warned. Nothing to dislike in his Sunland Derby performance, but it wasn’t an authoritative win either. The only highlight in that race was fending off a weak challenge from rival Midnight Hawk. Was he ducked out of more competitive prep races in order to secure a Derby spot? I’m thinking yes…

    14) Medal Count: I can’t make a strong case for this one based on his CV. Two dirt routes against good company were near disastrous. Bettors’ weren’t fooled either, sending him off at 44-1 and 27-1 in those races. His sire Dynaformer has produced a Derby winner in Barbaro, but Barbaro also won the Florida Derby. Medal Count was nine lengths behind the runner up of this year’s Florida Derby winner. His running style makes him live for the trifecta and superfecta, but don’t think he will be in a position to actually win the Derby.

    15) Tapiture: When a horse breaks his maiden in a graded stakes race, it’s a sign he’s well regarded. Tapiture made good on that early confidence by ownership, winning his first race of 2014 at Oaklawn, the Southwest. He had a good trip near the rail, and was able to assert himself at the top of the stretch. He seemed to lug out when the race was nearing completion. Racing mid-pack in his second race of 2014, the Rebel, he encountered some bumping in the stretch when making his final move. I don’t think it was enough to cost him the race though, as eventual winner Hoppertunity had a worse trip. In his final prep, the Arkansas Derby, he had to chase down some pacesetters but again lugged out and drifted in the stretch. Either he’s not able to hold his focus to finish the race, or he has difficulty completing route races. Either way, I don’t think he’s ready or capable or winning come May 3rd.

    16) Intense Holiday: Has a fair bit of racing experience, including a lengthy two-year old season. He looked ready to make a big move in the late stages of the Holy Bull, but perhaps lack of conditioning prevented him from improving. Looking at his last two races, his effort in the Risen Star was outstanding, going five or six wide and doing all the right things in the stretch. He literally needed the entire stretch run to catch Albino, which says he may be a slow accelerating horse. Racing at Churchill Downs could suit him if he’s not too far back (the sharp turns could be his undoing), as the track has a long stretch. Good tactics by Rosie Napravnik aboard Vicar’s In Trouble denied him a chance at winning the Louisiana Derby, but he could also have been dulled by the effort in the Risen Star. It’s been a few years since a horse from the Louisiana Derby took one of the Triple Crown legs (Grindstone, 1996). Could this be the year?

    17) Commanding Curve: A late running sort of horse who has been too far back in the field to have any impact on his races in 2014. Breaking from post seventeen isn’t going to make things any easier. Also has the distinction of being the second entrant in the field with only a maiden win to their name. Other than Giacomo, I’m not familiar with any Derby winner who took the big race as his second career win.

    18) Candy Boy: Any merits this horse has will be overshadowed by California Chrome. Soundly beat by him in the Santa Anita derby, his promising win in the Robert B Lewis became a distant memory. Not sure if this race is the ideal distance for him also. He could be much better at a mile. Passing here.

    19) Ride On Curlin: Never a bad thing to see one of Curlin’s progeny in the Derby. He’s also got 9 career races in the bag, making him the second most experienced horse after California Chrome. A bit discouraged he was not able to win any of his 2014 prep races, coming third (twice) and second by multiple lengths. While his racing in the Southwest and Rebel efforts could have been better, I will cut some slack in the Arkansas Derby. He did the best he could coming in second after being fanned very wide at the final turn. Could he be peaking at the right time?

    20) Wicked Strong: He’s got six races in his career, and has been steadily improving as a three year old. An absolute clunker in the Holy Bull was amended with a solid allowance race and breakthrough win in the Wood memorial. His Wood memorial race was exciting stuff: staying about mid-pack in the field during most of the race then breaking off with a driving finish despite being four wide. His motion seems a bit gangly and far from smooth striding but that could improve with maturity and more race experience. I think his price is a touch short if his morning line of 8-1 holds, but he deserves consideration. I’m not too concerned about his post position of 20.

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    Mike Diliberto, Metairie
    Resume: Morning line oddsmaker at Fair Grounds since 1991.
    Derby handicapping tip(s): I look for horses that have finished first or second in their last race. I'm looking for a horse in good form, are training well at Churchill and moving forward. I like a horse that can accelerate in the Derby because it can help them avoid trouble with so many horses in the field.
    Analysis: Danza ran a fantastic race in the Arkansas Derby. His time was only a fifth of a second off what Will Take Charge ran in the previous race. And Danza finished the last quarter (of a mile) in 12 and 2/5th seconds. If he can improve, I think he'll be tough to beat. Dance With Fate's win in the Blue Grass was extraordinary. He made a powerful wide move on the turn and showed an impressive turn of foot. I can think he can handle the (switch to) dirt. It's no surprise if California Chrome wins. But I think he's run his two best races already and could get compromised by the speed inside of him if he doesn't break well.
    Picks: 1. Danza; 2. Dance With Fate; 3. California Chrome.
    Long shot: Wicked Strong.

    Jeff Duncan, New Orleans
    Resume: NOLA.com/The Times-Picayune columnist
    Derby handicapping tip(s): Look for horses with tactical speed that can stalk the early pace setters and make a bold move on the far turn. I don't like deep closers because they often are asked to do too much and can find trouble. And I don't like early speed horses, for obvious reasons. I also favor horses with strong connections that have prior Derby success.
    Analysis: Todd Pletcher's 1-for-38 Derby record is head-scratchingly abysmal. But the man knows how to train a thoroughbred. I'm not sure Intense Holiday was totally cranked up for the Louisiana Derby as his connections already had enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby at that point. This is the race they were pointing toward all along and he's looked fantastic all week. If not for Intense Holiday's impressive week, I'd have picked Danza to win. He improved dramatically in his first start around two turns. Medal Count's tactical speed and toughness is a lethal combination.
    Picks: 1. Intense Holiday; 2. Danza; 3. Medal Count
    Longshot: Ride On Curlin.

    Patrick McGoey, New Orleans
    Resume: Attorney; two-time Breeders Cup Betting Challenge winner.
    Derby handicapping tip(s): There is always a fast pace in the Derby, so I favor mid-pack and closing horses. I do not use the horse who draws the No. 1 hole. Horses must be working well to win the Derby. Horses play like they practice. Their last two works are key. The Derby winner usually improves almost 10 points from their last race, and you can see they are improving by watching their works.
    Analysis: California Chrome has the most impressive resume and is working well, but I am not sure his pedigree says he will get the distance. I have won the Breeders Cup Betting Challenge twice beating a prohibited California favorite (Game On Dude), so I am going to try and beat California Chrome. Wicked Strong will get the distance and his last work was very good. He will be picking up horses down the stretch for sure.Danza has a lot of upside. If he can improve from his last race, he will be right there.Dance With Fate will get the distance and take to dirt. He should be a good price.
    Picks: 1. Wicked Strong; 2. Dance With Fate; 3. Danza.
    Long shot: Medal Count.

    Tim Rice, Covington
    Resume: Attorney; Derby handicapper since 1980; author, "Broke In A Tangle."
    Derby handicapping tip(s): With rare exception we are betting on a horse to do something he has never done before: Run 1 ¼ miles. That is why I place a lot of emphasis on pedigree and a 2-year-old foundation. Usually half the field can be safely eliminated with just those two criteria. A couple of 2-year-old starts and a winter break is a great foundation for a Derby prospect. And on pedigree, the female family is just as important as the sire. If there are several generations of stayers (preferably graded stakes winners) in a female family, that means a lot to me. I do not put a lot of weight on the jockey but definitely on the trainer. Not so much a Derby winner but a record of success and patience with his horses. That takes some work as it is not a factor easily discerned from past performances. I do not believe in the old "throw out the last race" adage but I think most people put far too much into the most recent start. A holistic approach is very important in this race. How a horse does once they arrive at Churchill is also a factor. Visualize the race. Who will take the lead? Will he have a lot of pressure or not? That tells you whether the stalkers and closers have a shot or a Spend A Buck, Winning Colors, or War Emblem will steal the race. In the end, of course, it is a stab but a calculated one. Racing luck can make or break your chances.
    Analysis: Wicked Strong is trained by Jimmy Jerkens, who like his Hall of Fame father Allen, is defined by the term "old school." With the Jerkens', the horse always comes first. Impatient owners need not apply. After two dull efforts at Gulfstream over the winter, where his dislike of the short stretch was apparent, he woke up when shipped back to New York and outran his 15-1 morning line odds. He is reunited with his Remsen Stakes rider, the under-appreciated Rajiv Maragh, who piloted Mucho Macho Man to a third place finish in the 2011 Derby. We expect improvement here.Dance With Fate is being ignored because his win in the Blue Grass Stakes was over the synthetic surface at Keeneland. Crafty West Coast conditioner Peter Eurton picks his spots well which leads us to dismiss his negative comments about the colt's chances on dirt after the Blue Grass Stakes. Rider Corey Nakatani was second aboard Nehro in the 2011 Derby and has won nine Breeder's Cup races. Last year our ultra-pick was a Dallas Stewart trainee (Golden Soul) that drew in after a late scratch. Same circumstances...same trainer. Karma rules. I think Candy Boy is being overlooked at a price. Commanding Curve could well be the longest of the long shots.
    Picks: 1. Wicked Strong; 2. Dance With Fate; 3. Candy Boy.
    Long shot: Commanding Curve.

    Chad Schexnayder, Metairie,
    Resume: Former director of publicity at Fair Grounds; veteran handicapper, tournament player
    Derby handicapping tip(s): Eliminate the No. 1 hole after the post position If Lookin at Lucky couldn't do it in 2010 then none of these horses will. Breeding is important but more important is the way they handle the race track in the 5-6 days leading up to it and with the power of HRTV, TVG and numerous online sites even if you are not there you can get all the info you need in advance to make your selection. Three-year-old colts this time of year improve by leaps and bounds so you want to have a horse that is trending to run the best race of his life. Orb, Animal Kingdom, I'll Have Another, Barbaro, Supersaver, Big Brown all had great Derby weeks.
    Analysis: Dance With Fate is the only horse in the race to beat California Chrome (albeit as a 2-year-old). His running style is ideal and you always want to have a horse you think is going to go off at 20-1 or so as one of your keys. It's California Chrome's race to lose but how will he handle being out of California for first time? He will have the target on his back, which means 19 other horses will know where he is. That is why it is so hard for a favorite to win the Derby but on strict numbers he is way above anything else in this field. Trainer Todd Pletcher should have Intense Holiday's cross-firing fixed from Louisiana Derby. Will close ground. I also will have a ticket on We Miss Artie only because that is my dad's name and I will never hear the end of it if he wins.
    Picks: 1. Dance With Fate; 2. California Chrome; 3. Intense Holiday.
    Longshot: General A Rod

    Gary West, Dallas (New Orleans native)
    Resume: ESPN.com columnist; former turf writer at Dallas Morning News & Fort Worth Star-Telegram.
    Derby handicapping tip(s): "Look for athletic, agile horses that can handle the turns at Churchill Downs because that's often where this race is won. Wayne Lukas used to tell his riders to make their move when they see the track kitchen (approaching the far turn) at Churchill. The Belmont is won by power punchers. The Derby is won by athletes."
    Analysis: "I like the way Intense Holiday and Danza have trained this week. Both are athletic horses who have proven they can make a sustained move on the turns. Intense Holiday made a nice move in both the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby."
    Picks: 1. Intense Holiday; 2. Danza; 3. Wicked Strong.
    Long shot: Medal Count

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    Main Contenders
    California Chrome – California Chrome doesn't stick out in this year's Kentucky Derby, but its close. Averaging a six-length margin of victory in his last four races, including the Santa Anita Derby (which I'll Have Another won in 2012 before winning the Kentucky Derby) California Chrome has been in front by at least the same margin at the 8th pole as he has been at the finish in those four races. In recent history, the horse in front at the eighth pole in the Derby has won more often than not, because most of the others are feeling the effects of running the mile and one-quarter distance they had not run previously, so if California Chrome runs as he has in those recent races he's going to be the one to catch in the final stages of the race. Two races back, California Chrome earned a career best and field high 109 Equibase Speed Figure and even though he regressed to a slightly lesser 106 figure last out he won easily and clearly could have run faster if required. Similarly, last year's Derby winner Orb exhibited the same pattern of Speed Figures, earning a 97 figure in the Derby after a 105 in the Fountain of Youth Stakes before his decisive victory in Louisville. Jockey Victor Espinoza recently remarked that he has only given California Chrome a tap with the whip one time in those four recent wins, which also suggests the colt may not have run as fast as he is capable.
    From humble origins, as his sire stands for a $2,500 stud fee and his dam was purchased for the lowly price of $8,000, California Chrome has the breeding to get the mile and one-quarter trip and win the Derby as his great grandsire is 1992 Belmont Stakes winner A.P. Indy, who was a son of 1977 Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew. With the ability to sit in about fourth place in the early stages of the Derby behind likely pacesetters and pressers Vicar's In Trouble, Wildcat Red and General a Rod (among others), California Chrome looks like the one to beat in this year's Kentucky Derby.








    AMERICA'S BEST RACING









    Dance With Fate - One of the keys to choosing who may run well in the Derby is to try to determine who might peak on Derby Day, not in their next start or the one previous. Dance With Fate may be that type of horse. He started his 3-year-old campaign in January winning a non-stakes race then led late and settled for second in the El Camino Real Derby in Northern California. Coming to Kentucky for the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes last month, Dance with Fate rallied from 10th of 14 in the early stages and was in front at the eight pole, holding his lead nicely to the wire, that move being significant to a potentially winning effort in the Derby as well. Having earned a career best 108 Equibase Speed Figure in that victory, one point shy of California Chrome's 109 best figure, and with potential improving to do in his fourth start as a three-year-old, Dance With Fate should be passing most if not all of the other 19 in the Derby and could post the upset win.
    Danza – Although his win at 41.30-to-1 odds in the Arkansas Derby caught bettors by surprise, in retrospect a good effort was not totally unexpected as that race was only his second start as a three-year-old and, perhaps more importantly, his second following a return from seven months off. Having shown promise as a two-year-old in top company when third in the Saratoga Special, apparently the time off did the colt a world of good as he improved from an 82 Equibase Speed Figure in his comeback to a 103 figure in the Arkansas Derby. Perhaps more importantly, Danza showed excellent acceleration when asked, leading with an eighth of a mile to run and widening from there. With improving to do in his third start as a three-year-old and as one of the four entrants in the race trained by North America's leading trainer, Todd Pletcher, Danza could take another step forward and be a strong factor in the Derby.
    Medal Count - Medal Count finished second to Dance With Fate in the Blue Grass Stakes, coming back on just seven days rest. The Derby will be his third start in four weeks but he appears to be the kind of "iron horse" of days gone by that can handle that amount of racing, perhaps thrive on it. As a son of Dynaformer, sire of 2006 Derby winner Barbaro, Medal Count should have little issue successfully running the mile and one-quarter of the Derby, and as he too is on a three race pattern of improvement with figures of 91, 103 and 106, he deserves a good deal of respect in this year's run for the roses.
    Wicked Strong - Wicked Strong didn't make his first start as a three-year-old until late January and ran poorly (9th) in that race, the Holy Bull Stakes. However, two races later the light bulb really went on as he rallied to win the Wood Memorial Stakes by three lengths in a field of 10, earning a 107 figure in the process. Remembering that a key to choosing who can win the Derby is determining who might have peaked and who has yet to peak, Wicked Strong may still have some improving to do and if so is yet another to respect when considering our wagers in this race.
    For any exotic wagers played such as the exacta, trifecta or superfecta, I would strongly recommend you consider Commanding Curve, who will go to post at high odds. He is making his third start as a three year old and had trouble in his first start of the year when 6th in the Risen Star. In his second start of the year, Commanding Curve was bumped to last of 10 at the start but came rallying late to finish third, earning a career best 96 figure that could be markedly improved upon in his third start as a three-year-old.








    HATS OF THE KENTUCKY DERBY









    The rest of the Derby field (with best representative Equibase Speed Figure); Candy Boy (97), Chitu (103), General A Rod (105), Harry's Holiday (99), Intense Holiday (106), Ride on Curlin (104), Samraat (108), Tapiture (105), Uncle Sigh (103), Vinceremos (96), Vicar's In Trouble (105), We Miss Artie (100), Wildcat Red (106) and Pablo Del Monte (103).

  9. #9
    Platinum ShadyJ's Avatar
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    1.Cali chrome

    2. Candy Boy


    Bank it

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    Diamond mulva's Avatar
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    danza was such a beast last race. horse is a must use in the derby

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    VICAR’S IN TROUBLE- A Louisiana bred winning the Louisiana Derby is a rare
    occasion and a Louisiana bred running in the Kentucky Derby is rarer still. But VIC is no
    ordinary La-bred being by the accomplished INTO MISCHIEF. Will be one of many
    vying for early command but think his distance limit was reached in his last win at nine
    furlongs. Past that point, we think this VICAR will be a missing parson.

    HARRY’S HOLIDAY- Lost a heartbreaker in the SPIRAL STAKES when ARTIE nailed
    him at the wire by s dirty nose. Contended briefly in the BLUE GRASS before stopping
    cold mid-race and finishing twelfth of thirteen. Bred to go long and owns a maiden
    claiming win over the Louisville surface. That’s not enough to make us wild about
    HARRY.

    UNCLE SIGH- All of this New York bred’s races have been at Aqueduct and apart from
    his disappointing fifth in the WOOD, he has battled down to the wire every time. Sire is
    beaten Derby favorite INDIAN CHARLIE who gets lots of hard knocking racehorses that
    do not extend to a mile and a quarter. That final eighth at Churchill will have backers
    letting loose a SIGH and crying UNCLE.

    DANZA- This has to be the wise guy horse since he is named for wise guy actor Tony
    Danza. This colt showed early promise at two but was on the shelf for several months
    before a so-so three-year-old bow in an allowance race at Gulfstream. Then he sprung a
    shocker dusting the Arkansas Derby field at 40-1. Sire STREET BOSS was a sprinter but
    has a classic pedigree. As impressive as that effort in Hot Springs was, have to question
    whether four lifetime starts afford enough bottom for the Derby trip.

    CALIFORNIA CHROME- Impossible to quarrel with his favoritism after his launch from
    Cal bred competition to Grade I Stakes winner. He has demonstrated multiple gears in
    his climb and quieted the pedigree snobs. The extra furlong and bounce factor are about
    the only hopes for naysayers. Backers will be paraphrasing Paul Simon:
    “Momma don’t take my CALI-CHROME away”.

    SAMRAAT- Gets his name from the Hindu word for emperor and he certainly ruled
    until his second place finish in the WOOD. His five race clean sheet included the
    WITHERS and GOTHAM Derby preps. Toughness is undeniable but pedigree and race
    record suggest the Derby distance may put this yogi in a twist.
    13

    WE MISS ARTIE- Has a couple of decent dirt efforts but best stuff is on turf and poly
    which is no surprise given the record of Dad (ARTIE SCHILLER) on the greensward. If
    he handles the Churchill dirt, he should be coming late but a reach to expect a
    duplication of ANIMAL KINGDOM’s double in the SPIRAL STAKES and DERBY.

    GENERAL A ROD- Actually not named for the NY Yankees juicer although this colt
    always runs with plenty of juice. His pedigree and maiden win suggest a classic closer.
    But since the addition of blinkers, he seems to always yearn for the front end. That was
    certainly a factor in his fading third in the Florida Derby. Too much talent here to throw
    out but the GENERAL must retreat early in this one to have a shot.

    VINCEREMOS- Translates from the Spanish to “we will conquer” and conquer he did in
    the last TAMPA DERBY prep. Followed that with respectable second in the main event
    then but bombed in the BLUE GRASS which can probably be thrown out due to
    polytrack. VINCE sports a money pedigree but would not be in here without late
    defections in the top twenty. Always respect a Pletcher entry but afraid this one will
    translate to “we were conquered.”

    WILDCAT RED- With acknowledgement to former President W, we definitely
    misunderestimated RED. We saw him as a one dimensional sprinter but he came with a
    neck of sweeping the three graded stakes for three-year-olds this winter in Florida.
    Derby distance looks beyond his pedigree but then so did the Florida Derby. If he
    outruns his bloodlines again, WILDCAT could well be the wild card.

    HOPPERTUNITY- Leader of the Baffert group has five starts but uh-oh, none at two.
    Cue the Apollo Curse once again. That said while his second to CAL-CHROME in the
    S.A. Derby appeared to be in another zip code from the winner, it was a plenty good
    effort. HOPPY was the same distance behind C.C. as FERDINAND was behind SNOW
    CHIEF in the 1986 S.A. Derby and we know how that turned out. Any HOPPERTUNITY
    knocks are issued at your peril.

    DANCE WITH FATE- Appropriately named as this colt is coming to the Derby with only
    three weeks rest and a preference for synthetic surfaces and grass. His BLUE GRASS
    win showed a classic closer’s pattern that should play well on Saturday but he’ll have to
    DANCE beyond his sire, TWO STEP SALSA.

    CHITU- No idea what his name means but from what we’ve seen it means speed. In first
    big test in the last prep for the SANTA ANITA DERBY, he just failed to last to CANDY
    BOY. He followed that with a dusting of MIDNIGHT HAWK and COMMISSIONER in
    the SUNLAND DERBY. Sire HENNY HUGHES was all speed but lots of staying power
    on the dam side. Baffert doesn’t take them to Louisville for the juleps. CHITU won’t
    cheat you.

    MEDAL COUNT- Although he shares DYNAFORMER as sire with ‘06 Derby champ
    BARBARO, this guy has been a total grass-poly specialist. His two dirt efforts have been
    no-COUNT. Nice close to be second in the BLUE GRASS may garner some support but
    hard to see a MEDAL for him in Louisville.

    TAPITURE- Has been on lots of Derby watch lists since his win last November in the
    IROQUOIS at Churchill. Lost narrowly to HOPPORTUNITY in a roughly run stretch
    battle in the final ARKANSAS DERBY prep. Sent off at 2/1 in the DERBY itself, he failed
    to show up and finished a distance fourth to DANZA. A best effort could put him in the
    mix but hard to predict that.

    INTENSE HOLIDAY- Steady if unspectacular performer appeared to be a Pletcher
    backup before injury to FLORIDA DERBY winner CONSTITUTION. Now may be barn’s
    best shot. Running style and pedigree suggest he will get the trip and despite his name
    he never takes a day off. With a spring break, he could hit the board.

    COMMANDING CURVE- Took four shots at two to become a winner but hit the board
    in all three Churchill starts. We bet him in the La. Derby and his third place finish came
    after being clobbered leaving the gate. Running style and pedigree scream a mile and a
    quarter but he has yet to deliver a COMMANDING effort. Needs to move forward or we
    will see a hanging CURVE.

    read rest here
    http://innisfree.org/PDFs/2014.pdf
    Last edited by mulva; 05-01-2014 at 04:47 PM.

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    PFA Boxing Guru JMM's Avatar
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    I have fixed odds bets on Intense Holiday at 16/1 and Tapiture at 28/1.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JMM View Post
    I have fixed odds bets on Intense Holiday at 16/1 and Tapiture at 28/1.
    tapiture's last race was poor. i'm not willing to give him a mulligan for it. but if you can, the odds will be juicy.

    intense holiday seems to be a horse that's taken to the track

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    This year’s race is filled with horses with early speed. A rapid pace seems assured. Unless the track is “tricked up” to favor
    frontrunners (something that’s been known to happen at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby day), the race should set up for
    stamina horses that come from off the pace. That’s going to guide my selections here.

    The Derby undercard is run all day with the first race going off at 9:30 central time. It is important to watch how the dirt races play
    out and adjust strategy accordingly. Making picks now is picking blindly.

    The most touted horse in the field is California Chrome. He is coming off romping wins in California and his speed figures top this
    field. His 77-year old trainer and “regular guy” owners would make for a great story. The story racing leaders most fear is a win
    by Tapiture, trained by Steve Asmussen. An undercover PETA video of Asmussen’s New York division has rocked racing and
    would be another black eye for a sport that keeps hitting itself in the face. And, yes, Tapiture has a chance.

    I’ll assess each horse in the field in post position order.

    THE FIELD

    #1 - VICAR’S IN TROUBLE---He’s in trouble alright. The #1 post position is absolute death in the Derby. Horses get pinned on
    the rail in the long front stretch and lose all position. It’s too bad because this horse was going to be one of my top picks, He’s
    never run a bad race and will take lots of betting action because female Derby bettors love betting jockey Rosie Napravnik, one
    of the two best women riders in history.

    #2 - HARRY’s HOLIDAY---A bad post position and a lousy run in his last race make him an unlikely longshot.

    #3 - UNCLE SIGH---This one is likely to be gunned into the hot early pace but I don’t think he’s good enough to stay the
    distance.

    #4 - DANZA---He’s run only four times and only twice this year but his last race was a smashing win in the Arkansas Derby at
    odds of 42-1. Some think he had a perfect trip and will regress but I think he’s a natural route horse who is rounding into his own
    and is still improving. The post position isn’t great but jockey Joe Bravo may be able to save ground and pounce at the top of the
    stretch. Trainer Todd Pletcher is regarded as the best in the game but this horse seems to have caught him by surprise. I think
    he’ll take tons of betting action because of his strong appearance in training all week at Churchill. A big shot to win it all, and yes
    he is named after actor Tony Danza.

    #5 - CALIFORNIA CHROME---He’s won four in a row and all have been romps. He has early speed but has also finished with
    gusto. So why do I dislike him in the Derby? I have a theory (lots of them, actually) that horses who are used to easy races with
    little traffic get discouraged and tend to quit when bounced around in the rodeo-like Kentucky Derby field. Besides, he’s likely to
    be the betting favorite and others offer better value. If he does win, it’ll be a great story.

    #6 - SAMRAAT---This is one of the few speed horses I give a shot to. He’s shown the ability to run from just off the pace and has
    won five of his six career starts. He is suspect at the distance.

    #7 - WE MISS ARTIE---Trainer Pletcher didn’t want to run him but was overruled by Derby-obsessed owner Ken Ramsey.

    #8 - GENERAL A ROD---Another gunner who will have to overcome a very fast pace. He is a remarkably game horse who never
    quits and has a top trainer and rider in his corner. I neither like nor dislike him.

    #9 - VINCEREMOS---He was 14th in his last race by 28 lengths. Horses who run like that coming into the Derby never ever win.

    #10 - WILDCAT RED---I think most of the speed horses will spit it out and this one is likely to be one of them. He is a real fighter
    and has never been worse than second in seven starts. His breeding, however, isn’t that of a Derby horse.

    #11 - HOPPERTUNITY---Scratched.

    #12 - DANCE WITH FATE---He just won the Blue Grass at Keeneland but that was on a synthetic track. His dirt races have been
    so-so at best. But he has finished well in most of his races and the pace will help him. Every year one or two horses confuse me
    and this is one of them.

    #13 - CHITU---Yet another speed horse, this Baffert trainee beat easier competition in New Mexico to get here. I’d give him more
    of a chance if there weren’t so many other early speed types.

    #14 - MEDAL COUNT---Here’s my longshot. I give this horse a major chance to win at huge odds. He woke up with two big
    races in April on Keeneland’s synthetic track. But his workout last Saturday at Churchill Downs was outstanding and his physical
    appearance suggests he is feeling great. He will come from well off the pace in a race where that style should work to his favor.
    His breeding says he will run all day. While he clunked in his only run on dirt this year, that was on a speed-favoring Gulfstream
    Park track. He will need to step up significantly to win the Derby but all sorts of factors point to him as the horse who will most
    benefit from a pace meltdown.

    #15 - TAPITURE---He never ran a bad race in his life until a clunker last time in the Arkansas Derby. He’s been one of my top
    two Derby choices all year but the last race raises legitimate questions. If you toss out his last race, a strong case can be made
    here for a win.

    #16 - INTENSE HOLIDAY---Trainer Pletcher usually babies his talented three year olds but this one will be making his fourth
    start of the year and is a hard-knocker who should appreciate the distance. He’ll be ridden for the first time by John Velazquez
    who has teamed up for lots of key wins with Pletcher. He’s is a closer and that’s the style I want in this race. One of four or five
    with a real good chance.

    #17 - COMMANDING CURVE---He’ll be one of the longest shots in the field but does have a chance to clunk up and finish in the
    trifecta or superfecta. A win would be a surprise.

    #18 - CANDY BOY---He’s been overshadowed on the west coast by California Chrome but this horse always fires and has
    looked great this week at Churchill Downs. He had an excellent workout over the track Saturday and his trainer made the wise
    decision to send him to Churchill Downs earlier than the other California horses. Gary Stevens, the Derby color commentator on
    NBC for years before coming out of retirement last year, is the jockey and he is still one of the best.

    #19 - RIDE ON CURLIN---This is a well-bred horse who was bypassed at public auction because he looks like a mess. He was
    bought by a low profile owner and trainer who have struck gold with him as he fires in every race. He was a solid second to
    Danza in Arkansas three weeks ago. I think he’s going to run another big one and has an excellent shot to finish in the top
    four. Make sure he’s in your trifecta and superfecta wagers.

    #20 - WICKED STRONG---Talk about mixed signals. He has a bad post position but the right running style. He ran a huge race
    to win the Wood Memorial last out but ran poorly in his other two 2014 starts. His trainer kept him in New York for his last
    workout (I think that’s a bad idea) but he is almost perfectly bred for this race. This is the other horse that has me befuddled.

    #21 - PABLO DEL MONTE---This one made it into the field only because of the late scratch of Hoppertunity. The outside post

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    May 1, 2014 | By Jon White
    This is my 400th Xpressbet.com column. This also is my 10th Kentucky Derby column for Xpressbet.com. I wrote my first such column in 2005. The headline was “A Closing Argument Upset?” I made the case for Closing Argument to win the Kentucky Derby that year primarily on the basis of my Derby Strikes System.

    In 1999, I came up with nine key factors to determine how a Kentucky Derby candidate looks from both a tactical and historical perspective. For each of the nine categories in which a horse doesn’t qualify, the horse gets a strike. The nine key factors are explained at the end of the column.

    Closing Argument had zero strikes. I also projected he had an excellent chance to be first or second with an eighth of a mile to run. If that turned out to be the case, he would be in a prime position to win the Run for the Roses as a longshot.

    Virtually ignored in the wagering, Closing Argument was sent off at 71-1 in the Kentucky Derby. And it did turn out that he had the lead with a furlong to go. From that point, he remained in the lead until being overtaken in the final yards by 50-1 Giacomo.

    Though Closing Argument did not win the roses, he did pay $70 to place. That remains the highest place payoff in the history of the race.

    In my 2012 Kentucky Derby column for Xpressbet.com, I’ll Have Another was my selection to win. He had only one strike. I’ll Have Another got the job done and paid $32.60.

    In 2013, Orb was my selection to win in my Kentucky Derby column for Xpressbet.com. He had zero strikes. Orb won and paid $12.80.

    Here are my selections for 2014:

    1. Dance With Fate
    2. California Chrome
    3. Wicked Strong
    4. Medal Count

    Most people agree California Chrome is the horse to beat. There is no doubt he is going to be the favorite. Can Dance With Fate finish in front of California Chrome? You bet he can. Heck, Dance With Fate already has done it.

    California Chrome and Dance With Fate both ran in last year’s roughly run Grade I Del Mar Futurity. California Chrome did not have the best of trips and finished sixth. Dance With Fate’s trip was much worse and he nearly won.

    Approaching the far turn, California Chrome and Dance With Fate were right next to each other. California Chrome was outside Dance With Fate.

    With heavy traffic on the far turn, Dance With Fate dropped back to last in the field of 11. His rider, Rafael Bejarano, then had to decide whether to stay toward the inside and risk getting blocked or go to the outside and risk going wide. Bejarano opted for the latter. Dance With Fate found himself so wide coming into the stretch he nearly ended up in the Pacific Ocean. Nevertheless, he charged home down the middle of the track. In the final 70 yards, Dance With Fate blew past California Chrome.

    Dance With Fate finished second, a half-length behind Tamarando. Immediately past the finish, Dance With Fate was in front. Not long after the finish, he was about three lengths in front. California Chrome finished sixth, but certainly didn’t disgrace himself in that he lost by only two lengths.

    Granted, that race was on Del Mar’s synthetic footing (Polytrack). California Chrome has gone on to win three races this year on dirt -- the California Cup Derby by 5 1/2 lengths, Grade II San Felipe by 7 1/4 lengths and Grade I Santa Anita Derby by 5 1/4 lengths.

    Many have said they believe Dance With Fate is “more of a synthetic/turf horse” than a dirt horse. That’s fine with me. That is one of the reasons Dance With Fate is going to be a nice price in the Kentucky Derby. He is 20-1 on Mike Battaglia’s official Kentucky Derby morning line.

    People in racing sometimes draw conclusions without sufficient evidence. California Chrome himself is an example of that. His first five starts were on synthetic footing. He won two of those races. In his first start on dirt, he finished sixth in the Golden State Juvenile at Santa Anita last Nov. 1. At that point, California Chrome certainly looked like he was more of a synthetic horse. But that’s the folly of drawing a conclusion without sufficient evidence. California Chrome isn’t just a synthetic horse. He is three for three on dirt this year.

    Dance With Fate has competed twice on dirt. He did not win either time. In his first start on dirt, he finished second in a Grade I race, the FrontRunner at Santa Anita last Sept. 28. Was that the strongest field in the world? No. But any way you slice it, finishing second in a Grade I race was far from an embarrassment on dirt.

    I happen to like Dance With Fate’s other dirt race even better. He finished eighth in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita last Nov. 2. If you just look at his running line in his past performances, it appears he did not run well at all. But that’s really not true. It’s a much better performance than most people realize.

    Dance With Fate started from post 2. He broke a tad sluggishly. Smarty’s Echo, departing from post 1, veered out a bit immediately after the start. Mexikoma, leaving from post 3, veered in sharply immediately after the start. Thanks to Smarty’s Echo and especially Mexikoma, Dance With Fate was cut off at the beginning of the 1 1/16-mile event. The official Equibase chart says Dance With Fate “was squeezed back at the break.” That’s an understatement. He was annihilated at the break, much like Secretariat in his career debut. After Dance With Fate’s troubled start, he was next-to-last in the field of 13 approaching the first turn.

    Approaching the backstretch, Dance With Fate started a rally. He sustained that rally all the way down the backstretch and around the far turn. He even nearly reached even terms with eventual winner New Year’s Day nearing the quarter pole. Understandably, considering Dance With Fate had started his rally so soon in the race, he ran out of steam in the stretch, He finished eighth. But his rally is an indication that he is able to run well on dirt.

    Not surprisingly, considering California Chrome is going to be the Kentucky Derby favorite, much attention was focused on his workout last Saturday at Los Alamitos. He worked five furlongs in :58 1/5.

    Meanwhile, not much attention was paid to Dance With Fate’s four-furlong workout the same morning at Santa Anita. His work was on dirt. Dance With Fate zipped four furlongs in :47 flat. Not bad for someone who supposedly is more of a synthetic/turf horse. It was the second fastest of 62 four-furlong works Saturday at Santa Anita.

    Actually, I consider Dance With Fate’s :47 flat drill to be a huge sign that he is going to run well in the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Peter Eurton has said his main concern with Dance With Fate is the three weeks between the colt’s victory in the Grade I Blue Grass on synthetic footing (Polytrack) at Keeneland and the Kentucky Derby. Eurton wishes the colt could have more time between the two races.

    Inasmuch as Eurton is concerned about the three-week time between starts, you can bet he was not looking for a particularly fast work last Saturday. Yet the colt zipped four furlongs in :47 flat.

    Eurton tweeted: “Couldn’t have been happier with Dance With Fate’s morning breeze.”

    The next day, Eurton tweeted: “Dance With Fate looking very good from yesterday’s breeze.”

    There are other reasons why I’m picking Dance With Fate to win the roses. He’s coming off back-to-back 1 1/8-mile races. I really like that a lot going into a 1 1/4-mile race.

    Another reason I like Dance With Fate is it appears this year’s Kentucky Derby will have a fast pace to set it up for his rally. I see no less than eight horses who possess the early zip to be pace factors. They are, listed alphabetically, California Chrome, Chitu, General a Rod, Harry’s Holiday, Samraat, Uncle Sigh, Vicar’s in Trouble and Wildcat Red.

    But even though Dance With Fate has a come-from-behind style, my Derby Strikes System points out he nevertheless has the capability of being first or second -- i.e., in the prime position to win -- with an eighth of a mile to go in the Kentucky Derby.

    Dance With Fate does not get a strike in Category 4, “the eighth pole factor,” which I consider to be one of the most important categories in my Derby Strikes System. A horse gets a strike in Category 6 if he or she has not been first or second with an eighth of a mile to run in either of their last two starts before the Kentucky Derby. Many people have the perception that the Kentucky Derby is won by a horse coming on in the final furlong. But rather the race often is decided BEFORE the final furlong. In the vast majority of cases, the winner makes “the winning move” on the far turn and is first or second with a furlong remaining. That’s often even the case with a winner who came from far back, like Street Sense, Mine That Bird or Orb. History tells us the “eighth pole factor” is significant because 48 of the last 51 Kentucky Derby winners were first or second with a furlong to go in the Run for the Roses.

    I love the fact Dance With Fate has been in front with a furlong to go in each of his last two races. This is in contrast to another come-from-behind type, Wicked Strong, the 8-1 third choice on the morning line, who does get a strike in Category 6.

    In Wicked Strong’s last two races, he has been fourth and sixth with a furlong to run. This suggests to me that instead of being first or second with a furlong to go in the Kentucky Derby, Wicked Strong might be coming on in the final furlong, perhaps too late to win the race.

    Something else I like concerning Dance With Fate is his rider, Corey Nakatani. He has been riding quite well. Yes, he has never won the Kentucky Derby. Nakatani is 0 for 16 in it. He did finish second in 2011 aboard Nehro (Animal Kingdom won).

    I believe Nakatani is without a doubt one of the best active riders to have never won the roses. I can’t help thinking there is a Kentucky Derby with his name on it. Don’t forget, at the start of the year, many thought Nakatani would win the Kentucky Derby with Shared Belief, who was voted an Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male of 2013. However, Shared Belief got derailed from the Derby trail due to a nagging foot problem. How ironic would it be that Nakatani lost that Kentucky Derby early favorite only to still win the race with Dance With Fate? If that occurs, one might think it was fate.

    CALIFORNIA CHROME’S DOMINANCE

    California Chrome, the 5-2 Kentucky Derby morning-line favorite, has won his last four races by a combined 24 1/4 lengths. Jeremy Plonk, whose weekly Countdown to the Crown is a “must read” for any serious horseplayer, has come up with quite a stat regarding California Chrome. Plonk told me he has Kentucky Derby past performances going back to 1906 (mine only go back to 1955).

    California Chrome is the only horse Plonk could find since1906 to go into the Kentucky Derby off four consecutive victories by five lengths or more going all the way back to 1906. Not even such greats as Count Fleet, Citation, Native Dancer, Swaps, Secretariat, Seattle Slew or Spectacular Bid had done that.

    Meanwhile, California Chrome also is attempting to become the first California-bred to win the roses since 1962. Only three Cal-breds have ever won the Kentucky Derby: Morvich in 1922, Swaps in 1955 and Decidedly in 1962.

    Art Sherman trains California Chrome. Sherman was an exercise rider for the great Swaps.

    All things considered, I think California Chrome is a deserving Kentucky Derby favorite. His Santa Anita Derby triumph was impressive in terms of both the 5 1/2-length margin and final time of 1:47 2/5. The only Santa Anita Derby winners to post a faster final time were Lucky Debonair (1965), Sham (1973) and Indian Charlie (1998), who each completed 1 1/8 miles in 1:47 flat. Hill Rise, like California Chrome, recorded a final time of 1:47 2/5 when he won the 1964 Santa Anita Derby.

    However, California Chrome does need to break alertly this Saturday, something he did not do in the Santa Anita Derby. If he does not break alertly in the 20-horse Kentucky Derby, he could be in big trouble. A sluggish start in the Run for the Roses can result in a horse being 10th to 20th early. And if California Chrome is 10th to 20th early, there is a good chance the Cal-bred drought is going to continue this year.

    DERBY STRIKES FOR EACH ENTRANT

    According to my Derby Strikes System, it is very likely this year’s Kentucky Derby winner will have zero strikes or one strike. That’s because since 1973 (as far back as the system can go inasmuch as that was the year stakes races were first graded in the U.S.), 85% (35 of the 41) of the Kentucky Derby winners have had either zero strikes or one strike. The strikes for each Kentucky Derby winner since 1973 are listed later in this column.

    When I try to pick the Kentucky Derby winner, I have made it my policy to throw out those entrants who have two or more strikes.

    I also am taking a stand this year against Hoppertunity, the 6-1 second choice on the morning line, even though he has just one strike. I certainly am not saying Hoppertunity can’t win the roses, especially since he does have only one strike. But his one strike comes in Category 8, “the raced as a 2-year-old factor,” which I consider to be the most important category.

    If a horse gets a strike in Category 8, I regard it as a huge negative. Only one horse, Apollo in 1882, has won the Kentucky Derby without having raced as a 2-year-old. That means there now have been 131 straight Kentucky Derby winners who did race at 2.

    This year’s Kentucky Derby entrants with zero strikes or one strike are:

    ZERO STRIKES
    California Chrome
    Intense Holiday
    Medal Count
    Samraat
    Wildcat Red

    ONE STRIKE
    Candy Boy (Category 3)
    Dance With Fate (Category 4)
    Hoppertunity (Category 9)
    Wicked Strong (Category 3)

    Based on the Derby Strikes System, it is not impossible for a horse to win the Kentucky Derby with two strikes, but it is unlikely. Only 12% (5 of 41) of the Derby winners since 1973 have had two strikes. This year’s entrants with two strikes are:

    TWO STRIKES
    Chitu (Categories 4 and 6)
    Danza (Categories 1 and 6)
    General a Rod (Categories 2 and 6)
    Harry’s Holiday (Categories 2 and 4)
    Ride On Curlin (Categories 2 and 4)
    Tapiture (Categories 3 and 5)
    Vicar’s in Trouble (Categories 4 and 6)
    Vinceremos (Categories 5 and 6)
    We Miss Artie (Categories 3 and 4)

    According to my Derby Strikes System, a horse with more than two strikes has only a remote chance to win the Kentucky Derby. Of the last 41 Kentucky Derby winners, the only one to have more than two strikes was Mine That Bird. Mine That Bird clearly was an anomaly. This year’s entrants with more than two strikes are:

    THREE STRIKES
    Commanding Curve (Categories 2, 3 and 4)
    Uncle Sigh (Categories 2, 5 and 6)

    By the way, Pablo Del Monte, who is an also eligible, has two strikes (Categories 2 and 4).

    Here are each Kentucky Derby’s winner’s strikes since 1973:

    1973 Secretariat (0 strikes)
    1974 Cannonade (2 strikes) categories 3 and 4
    1975 Foolish Pleasure (0 strikes)
    1976 Bold Forbes (0 strikes)
    1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes)
    1978 Affirmed (0 strikes)
    1979 Spectacular Bid (0 strikes)
    1980 Pleasant Colony (0 strikes)
    1981 Genuine Risk (1 strike) category 1
    1982 Gato Del Sol (1 strike) category 3
    1983 Sunny’s Halo (1 strike) category 1
    1984 Swale (0 strikes)
    1985 Spend a Buck (0 strikes)
    1986 Ferdinand (2 strikes) categories 2 and 4
    1987 Alysheba (1 strike) category 2
    1988 Winning Colors (0 strikes)
    1989 Sunday Silence (0 strikes)
    1990 Unbridled (1 strike) category 3
    1991 Strike the Gold (0 strikes)
    1992 Lil E. Tee (0 strikes)
    1993 Sea Hero (2 strikes) categories 3 and 5
    1994 Go for Gin (0 strikes)
    1995 Thunder Gulch (0 strikes)
    1996 Grindstone (0 strikes)
    1997 Silver Charm (1 strike) category 4
    1998 Real Quiet (0 strikes)
    1999 Charismatic (1 strike) category 5
    2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) category 6
    2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
    2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
    2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) categories 2 and 9
    2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
    2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) categories 2 and 5
    2006 Barbaro (1 strike) category 6
    2007 Street Sense (0 strikes)
    2008 Big Brown (1 strike) category 6
    2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) categories 1, 4, 5 and 9
    2010 Super Saver (1 strike) category 4
    2011 Animal Kingdom (1 strike) category 6
    2012 I’ll Have Another (1 strike) Category 6
    2013 Orb (0 strikes)

    These are the nine key factors in my Derby Strikes System:

    1. THE GRADED STAKES FACTOR. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race as a 3-year-old before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition early in the year at 3 and not just at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Since the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983 and Mine That Bird in 2009 have won the Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 3 before March 31.)

    2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES FACTOR. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003 and Giacomo in 2005 are the only exceptions since the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)

    3. THE EIGHTH POLE FACTOR. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Derby, the horse was either first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 48 of the last 51 Derby winners have been first or second with a furlong to run. Since Decidedly won the Derby in 1962 when he was third with a furlong to go, the only three Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Animal Kingdom, third with a furlong remaining in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; and Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second at the eighth pole in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990 and Sea Hero in 1993, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)

    4. THE GAMENESS FACTOR. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Super Saver in 2010, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)

    5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION FACTOR. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Derby distance. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)

    6. THE SUFFICIENT RACING EXPERIENCE FACTOR. (The horse has had at least six lifetime starts before the Derby.) This points out horses who have the needed experience. (Exceptions: Since 1955, Grindstone in 1996, Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, Barbaro in 2006, Big Brown in 2008, Animal Kingdom in 2011 and I’ll Have Another in 2012 have been the exceptions. Grindstone, Fusaichi Pegasus and Barbaro each had made five starts before the Kentucky Derby. Animal Kingdom had made four starts before the Kentucky Derby. Big Brown had made three starts before the Kentucky Derby. I’ll Have Another had made five starts before the Kentucky Derby.)

    7. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS FACTOR. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Since Daily Racing Form began including blinkers in its past performances in 1987, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Derby.)

    8. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD FACTOR. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exception: Apollo in 1882 is the only Kentucky Derby winner who didn’t race as a 2-year-old. There now have been 131 straight Kentucky Derby winners who raced at as a 2-year-old. Through 2013, the score is 138-1 in terms of Kentucky Derby winners who raced at 2. Going back to 1956, horses unraced at 2 are 0 for 50 in the Kentucky Derby. During that time, the only horses to even place or show were Agitate, who finished third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; and Bodemeister, second in 2012).

    9. THE NOT A GELDING FACTOR. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)

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    The TimeformUS Pace Projector projects that the 2014 Kentucky Derby will be run at a fast pace, and that Uncle Sigh will have the lead at the opening half.



    FREE TimeformUS PPs for the Kentucky Derby
    The Kentucky Derby Package - PPs for ALL races at ALL tracks on Derby and Oaks Day

    Now let's go over the field in post position order, with the morning line odds in parentheses:

    Vicar's in Trouble (30-1): Many handicappers consider this post position to be toxic. We disagree. We think it is a dangerous post position, but one that could well end up working in this colt's favor if he breaks alertly. The Pace Projector shows him in fifth early. We think he could as easily be on the lead, for better or worse. His speed figures have been improving every start. He ran a 100 in winning the Louisiana Derby. He will need a new top to contend here, but off this pattern, he can get it, and he should be saving ground, too. His breeding for this distance is mixed, a question mark. We consider him a viable longshot.

    Harry's Holiday (50-1): Shows no dirt efforts that would make any sort of impact on this field. Has run two decent efforts on synthetic but could not follow up on either of them. We don't see much to like here.

    Uncle Sigh (30-1): Exits strong New York prep races (the Wood earned a powerful Race Rating of 112), where he ran solid speed figures, 105 104 106, while losing to Samraat and Wicked Strong. Adds blinkers, and the Pace Projector shows him on a clear early lead. Like Vicar's in Trouble, he figures to be at the mercy of the pace. Has questionable distance breeding on the sire side. But he has put a string of nice efforts together and he figures to be a nice price. We will keep him in the exotic mix.

    Danza (10-1): Pletcher colt saved all the ground in the Arkansas Derby, where he pulled off a 41-1 shocker. His speed figure of 106 is competitive in here but represents an 18-point top. He is exceedingly unlikely to get a trip that looks anything like his last one. His morning line odds are relatively low. We don't like him in here.

    California Chrome (5-2): We believe that this California-bred is the most talented horse in this field. Visually, we prefer his races over those of any of his opponents. He cruises at high speed, watches his opponents come undone from their efforts, and then steps into his own, laying waste to field after field with consummate style. But there are a lot of question marks here--so many, in fact, that we cannot justify taking odds near 5-2 on him winning this race. He has never raced outside of California. He has looked uncomfortable in traffic. On speed figures, he is slower than two of his opponents. He has reportedly been a bit uncomfortable during his time at Churchill Downs. A contender? To be sure. But to us, he is an underlay.

    Samraat (15-1): This colt has a gorgeous pattern of speed figures: 85 91 106 107 113. His 113 is the second-fastest figure any horse in this field has ever run. He, too, exits strong preps. He is 5 for 6 lifetime. His best speed figure was earned at nine furlongs, which, his breeding notwithstanding, bodes well for his chances of handling an additional furlong. He has a pleasing, stalking style that might get him a reasonable trip in this crazy race. We consider him to be very playable in here. (Note: Samraat is the top selection of our chief figure maker, Craig Milkowski.)


    We Miss Artie (50-1): His dirt top is a 94. His synthetic top is 98. He comes off an uninspiring victory in the Spiral. We don't see a lot of reasons for optimism.

    General a Rod (15-1): Ran a 101 when losing the Fountain of Youth by a head. Lost ground racing wide when finishing third in the Florida Derby. Frontrunner/presser type could be disadvantaged by the pace, but this is a lightly raced colt who is in excellent hands (Maker gets a 96 trainer rating overall), is admirably consistent, and might just have in him the jump he'll need to compete with the best in here.

    Vinceremos (30-1): Too slow on our figures and comes in off an awful effort in the Blue Grass.

    Wildcat Red (15-1): As consistent as they come. Has victories in a Grade 3 and a Grade 2 and was only a neck shy of winning the Florida Derby. But his top speed figure, a 101, leaves him in a position of probably needing to improve significantly to win this.

    Hoppertunity (6-1): Scratched.

    Dance With Fate (20-1): He was visually impressive as he blitzed the field in the Blue Grass after a wide trip, but his speed figure was only a 96. Returns to dirt now. His previous dirt figures fit well enough with his synthetic figures--this despite his receiving a difficult trip in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. His Late Pace rating of 88 is fairly strong in here. He should be running on late and could get into the trifecta, but we don't love his chances of taking down the whole thing.

    Chitu (20-1): Baffert speedster is another who has a nice pattern of speed figures: a 101 (on synthetic), followed by a troubled 94, then a 100 and a 104. There has been considerable speculation about what Baffert's instructions to his rider will be. The Pace Projector shows Chitu in second-place early. He has proven himself capable of stalking the pace. His breeding for the 10 furlongs is a little light on the sire side, but strong on the dam side. Add him to the list of horses who would surprise us, but not shock us, if he won.

    Medal Count (20-1): This colt is getting good at the right time. He lost an awful lot of ground racing wide in the Blue Grass, where he paired his top speed figure of 94. He will need a big new top as he returns to dirt. A tall order, though his breeding is conducive to the 10 furlongs.

    Tapiture (15-1): Keeps grinding away on our speed figures, working his way up to paired 101s. But was no match for Danza in the Arkansas Derby and may have reached the end of the line for now.

    Intense Holiday (12-1): Has reportedly been doing very well this week in Kentucky. He had a deceptively difficult trip in the Louisiana Derby, a race in which he made a nice run that is partially hidden in the running line and ran another 95. He is another who will need to jump to contend, and given his connections, we don't like the chances that his closing odds will reflect the likelihood that he will produce this jump.

    Commanding Curve (50-1): He is our favorite bomb in the 2014 Kentucky Derby. He has improved his speed figure in every start. He had a tough time of it at the start of the Louisiana Derby. He put in a big effort to finish third. A hot pace would very much work in his favor. He draws outside but figures to be taking back and angling over as soon as the gate opens. He has a powerful Late Pace rating of 93. He figures to be a huge price. We consider him a very interesting horse in this spot.



    Candy Boy (20-1): Was no match for California Chrome in the Santa Anita Derby despite running a lifetime-top speed figure of 102. Is reportedly going to change tactics a bit this time--try coming from farther off the pace. His speed figures have been improving. They need to improve more.

    Ride On Curlin (15-1): Has suffered truly awful trips in two of his last three starts, racing extremely wide and losing his chance despite putting in big efforts. For this reason, we do not think his recent speed figures do him justice. A threat to get on the board.

    Wicked Strong (8-1): He is our pick to win the 2014 Kentucky Derby. We feel that he exits the strongest prep: the Wood, which received a formidable Race Rating of 112. He won it by uncorking a visually impressive run. His speed figure for that effort, a 116, is better than the best number his competition has ever run. His Late Pace rating, a 98, is the best in the field. Are we concerned that he will bounce off that huge effort? Yes, this possibility has crossed our mind, but we feel this possibility is outweighed by the chances that he will win the race if he proves capable of putting up a comparable effort today. Moreover, we like the fact that his two best efforts occurred in his two nine-furlong races. No, we don't like his post position. But at morning line odds of 8-1, Wicked Strong has shown us enough to make him our selection.



    Pablo Del Monte (50-1): Seems no match for these.

    The play:

    Win bet on Wicked Strong.

    Use Wicked Strong, Samraat, and Commanding Curve in multi-race wagers.

    In exactas, trifectas, and superfectas, use Wicked Strong and Samraat on top, and include Vicar's in Trouble, Uncle Sigh, California Chrome, General a Rod, Ride On Curlin, and Dance With Fate in lower holes.




    Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/unloc...#ixzz30bzMs6Uq

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    $1 EB
    5/14/16/20, 5/14/15/16/20


    $1 TRI
    5/14/16/20, 5/8/14/15/16/20 , 5/8/14/15/16/20


    Total Bet - $96

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    I've done Dance with fate 20/1 fixed odds e/w

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    I like Vicar's in Trouble best and most likely to hit the super.

    After that, i have a hard time choosing between Samraat and Dance with Fate....both of which look very strong and solid and if not troubled with trip issues should be there. Vicar's in Trouble just has the extra upside of potentially exploding to a new higher level. his established level is good enough and Rosie is good enough to keep him out of trouble.

    After my top three, I will be spreading quite a bit. Easier to say who will definitely NOT be on my tickets.....none of Harry's Holiday, We Miss Artie, Tapiture, or Medal Count. There are a lot of live long shots in there that can clunk up. Beware of Chitu.....Baffert is dangerous with his less heralded horses, this horse has only had 4 races lifetime and definitely has license to improve and develop further.....also, this horse has great spacing off two two turn efforts.

    Good luck everybody, may they all come home safely!!

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    Put 200 in the race with most tickets having #12 on top of tri's, per's and WP bets
    -Allergic to the struggle

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