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Thread: FAO Stock geeks: My NIA type pick for the next while

  1. #1201
    Quote Originally Posted by Tellafriend View Post
    Ive recently bought some nwl vig khc ete fgp f nymt google ipay on this weakness. Really like nwl
    Here for long term hold and appreciation. Will prob add to my visa tomorrow.
    ETE is junk. They're rolling up ETP very soon but acknowledged they won't be increasing their distribution until certain debt thresholds are met and they are a couple years away from being met even though cash flow will start increasing bigly the next few quarters. It's a real sad situation. You'll collect a safe 6% distribution but don't expect much stock appreciation. If income is your thing then sure it's fine. If you're looking to multiply your money you won't do any better than CRC. If oil continues to rise as I expect that stock will be an absolute beast. It was around $8 a year ago at this time. It's the most leveraged to the price of oil in its space with a couple other companies somewhat close but nothing is like CRC. CRC has world class assets at a bargain price. NAV at $85 BRENT is 23 Billion and they trade at 2. Need I say more?

    If you believe in a lower for longer oil price then CRC is not your stock. In my opinion there is no bear case for oil. They've all run their course and struck out. The cure for low oil prices are low oil prices. Years of underinvestment in the space is catching up. Shale has enormous depletion rates and tier one acreage is running out. You'll get a boost late next year when more pipelines come online but it will be too little too late by then. The mother fuckers short oil are going to be getting a rude awakening the next few months. Refinery maint season ends next couple weeks and Iran sanctions kicking in early Nov. Things gonna get ugly. YRMV

  2. #1202

  3. #1203
    Platinum thesparten's Avatar
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    Guys guys...

    What's a single good play too take advantage of this $50 oil thinking that it definitely had to go up..

    I bet 9k on the china deal which is imploding right now..
    Baba, nmm

    I switched over to folio investing platform which allows fractional shares so I just buy dollar amounts and try too make some percentage,s..

    It's not working out very well lololol lololol.
    Last edited by thesparten; 12-04-2018 at 12:37 PM.

  4. #1204
    Quote Originally Posted by thesparten View Post
    Guys guys...

    What's a single good play too take advantage of this $50 oil thinking that it definitely had to go up..

    I bet 9k on the china deal which is imploding right now..
    Baba, nmm

    I switched over to folio investing platform which allows fractional shares so I just buy dollar amounts and try too make some percentage,s..

    It's not working out very well lololol lololol.
    Why does oil HAVE to go up? Whatís the bet?

    OPEC doesnít exist anymore.

    Itís the Wild West.

    Texas pumps as much as Iraq.

  5. #1205
    Platinum thesparten's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by thesparten View Post
    Guys guys...

    What's a single good play too take advantage of this $50 oil thinking that it definitely had to go up..

    I bet 9k on the china deal which is imploding right now..
    Baba, nmm

    I switched over to folio investing platform which allows fractional shares so I just buy dollar amounts and try too make some percentage,s..

    It's not working out very well lololol lololol.
    Why does oil HAVE to go up? What’s the bet?

    OPEC doesn’t exist anymore.

    It’s the Wild West.

    Texas pumps as much as Iraq.
    Fair point!!!!

    Qatar is leaving opec also..

    I actually thought my last post was investment genius..
    Now you see my issues (among many).

    It took me over a year to save 25k to fuck around with and a couple of months too fucken blow it with nothing too show..
    Last edited by thesparten; 12-04-2018 at 01:26 PM.

  6. #1206
    I have decided to get a bunch of American Airlines AAL. @$30 and sit on them for a year or so a friend told me there is good potential for them to go near $50
    all hail Hydra



    Originally Posted by DanDruff:Since I'm a 6'2" Republican with an average-sized nose and a last name which doesn't end with "stein", "man", or "berg", I can hide among the goyim and remain undetected unless I open my mouth about money matters.

  7. #1207
    hesitate to put this here because you can get your ass raped in a hurry if you get involved in futures, but I will be very, very, very surprised if we see sept/dec corn futures trade in the low 400 range...

    Midwest weather has been absolute AIDS during planting season and in many of the high producing states they were well, well behind in getting corn into the ground this year...corn is a very delicate plant that really has problems dealing with a lotta heat during it's growth...and given when the farmers got most of this shit into the ground if we get a july/aug heatwave in the Midwest we are headed deeper down the path of having a really shitty crop...

    EDIT: don't buy the CORN ETF, forgot specifically how it's structured but it's some combo of nearest month futures, 2nd month futures, and year out futures...so you can lose money when it rolls the futures contracts even if corn goes up...

  8. #1208
    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    hesitate to put this here because you can get your ass raped in a hurry if you get involved in futures, but I will be very, very, very surprised if we see sept/dec corn futures trade in the low 400 range...

    Midwest weather has been absolute AIDS during planting season and in many of the high producing states they were well, well behind in getting corn into the ground this year...corn is a very delicate plant that really has problems dealing with a lotta heat during it's growth...and given when the farmers got most of this shit into the ground if we get a july/aug heatwave in the Midwest we are headed deeper down the path of having a really shitty crop...

    EDIT: don't buy the CORN ETF, forgot specifically how it's structured but it's some combo of nearest month futures, 2nd month futures, and year out futures...so you can lose money when it rolls the futures contracts even if corn goes up...
    So what specifically do you suggest we buy?

  9. #1209
    Quote Originally Posted by Tellafriend View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    hesitate to put this here because you can get your ass raped in a hurry if you get involved in futures, but I will be very, very, very surprised if we see sept/dec corn futures trade in the low 400 range...

    Midwest weather has been absolute AIDS during planting season and in many of the high producing states they were well, well behind in getting corn into the ground this year...corn is a very delicate plant that really has problems dealing with a lotta heat during it's growth...and given when the farmers got most of this shit into the ground if we get a july/aug heatwave in the Midwest we are headed deeper down the path of having a really shitty crop...

    EDIT: don't buy the CORN ETF, forgot specifically how it's structured but it's some combo of nearest month futures, 2nd month futures, and year out futures...so you can lose money when it rolls the futures contracts even if corn goes up...
    So what specifically do you suggest we buy?
    caveat, not an investment advisor and you could get fucked on this one...if you had a little money burning a hole in your pocket and had availability to buy futures, i'd wait for a little pullback in SEP futures to somewhere in the 440-445 range or DEC in the 450-455 range with a stop 20 cents lower...i sold puts before the last USDA report and those have gone right in my favor...waiting for that pullback to sell some more...

    honestly at this point i don't know if a big supply number (aka the size of the crop) can happen...the supply/demand of corn is gonna have to be balanced by demand destruction so i believe we're gonna have to find a price where that happens...errrrrrrrrrrbody likes round numbers so im guessing that happens somewhere in the $5+ range...

    think this shit could hurt businesses that derive a nice chunk of their revenues from fertilizer...lotta farmers have a lotta acres under water and aint gonna plant 'em so they're not gonna need to fertilize fields this year...

    just know that this trade comes with some risks...mother nature can be a fickle lady...there's a decent probability is that this is gonna be a rough crop since it has started off way behind (tough to play catch up with mother nature) and price is gonna have to get to a point where the ethanol guys, hog/cow guys, and other countries are like 'fuck this' and stop buying, but think at this point we still have a ways to go...

    EDIT: and if you do this don't fucking get greedy thinking price is gonna go up and up and up and up...i was on a grains desk for 2 years and my idiot boss thought that corn was gonna go to like $10/bushel (think this woulda been in like mid 2010) and positioned himself for that fact...well at a certain price those guys mentioned above aint gonna buy corn...they'll cull hurds, stop crushing corn for ethanol, or foreign entities will just stop buying...this is where you thank mother nature for the cool/wet spring and for the 30-40 cents a bushel and move on...

     
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      Tellafriend:
    Last edited by GambleBotsChafedPenis; 06-18-2019 at 08:27 PM.

  10. #1210
    here's another tidbit on the corn shit that I forgot about...im pretty sure im accurate on this, but take it with a grain of salt because I've been outta the game for quite a long time now...

    so every week the CME group will break down the market based on positions held by producers/managed money/swap dealers/others...the one we would most of the time look at would be managed money because that's obviously the biggest money and they really don't have a horse in the race so to speak...producers are in the market to hedge their production, managed money will go where they think the performance will be (whether that be up or down)…

    so as youll notice before this shit storm started managed money was short as fuck corn...the peak of this shortness was on april 23 where they were short 530K contracts vs a long of 186K contracts and spreads (buying one month of corn and selling another month of corn) of 225K...so managed money was net short roughly 340K contracts of corn and had 940K total contracts outstanding...spreads are neutral in length since you are buying 1 and selling 1...

    fast forward to the last commitment of traders...managed money was long 252K contracts, short 130K contracts and spread 223K contracts...so managed money was net long 80K contracts of corn and had 600K contracts outstanding...

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    so who fucking cares? well if you think that managed money sees what is going on with the market (and all indications are that they have because their position has flipped from massively short to long) you could look ahead and see that they have a ton of room to get long this market...in april they were net short 340K contracts with 940K contracts of total OI while last week they were only long 80K contracts with 600K contracts of total OI...if these guys start swinging their dicks around it could get interesting...

  11. #1211
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    It took 7-8 years but I think we are about to see the next big Gold Run. Bought some miners last week and I think I’m doubling down over the next 1-2 weeks.

    Deficits are continuing to trend up. The Fed is going to lower rates. A large majority of asset classes are at all time highs in nominal terms. Granted a lot of wealth went up in flames between 2005 and 2008 but there is an incremental 12 Trillion dollars added into the economy since then.

    I’m not one of these lunatics that says hyperinflation and 100K an Oz gold, but I don’t think a 3-5K an Oz gold price is really that far fetched while considering all the ingredients in the pot.

    Been following/Tracking $IAG for a long while - anyone else have any favorites?

  12. #1212
    Gold has been quiet. At least to my ear. Thatís often a good entry point. The deficit isnít a discussion point either. Another positive.

    Itís been a decade since I touched gold or the lunatics who circle that market. They fill your head with poisonous ideas. There is no other market like it.

    I am on the sidelines now.

    I just might take a look.

  13. #1213
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Gold has been quiet. At least to my ear. Thatís often a good entry point. The deficit isnít a discussion point either. Another positive.

    Itís been a decade since I touched gold or the lunatics who circle that market. They fill your head with poisonous ideas. There is no other market like it.

    I am on the sidelines now.

    I just might take a look.

    Oh yeah - they all religious Zealots for Gold. Itís beyond crazy esp when you consider how it really has under performed the market for the last 8 years.

    Iíd appreciate if you had a look San. My chart reading is rusty but it seems like most ETF/Miners are in breakout territory.

     
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      Tellafriend: gold has underperformed for the last 15 years

  14. #1214
    quality trolling...


  15. #1215
    Feelin' Stronger Every Day tony bagadonuts's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Gold has been quiet. At least to my ear. Thatís often a good entry point. The deficit isnít a discussion point either. Another positive.

    Itís been a decade since I touched gold or the lunatics who circle that market. They fill your head with poisonous ideas. There is no other market like it.

    I am on the sidelines now.

    I just might take a look.

    Oh yeah - they all religious Zealots for Gold. Itís beyond crazy esp when you consider how it really has under performed the market for the last 8 years.

    Iíd appreciate if you had a look San. My chart reading is rusty but it seems like most ETF/Miners are in breakout territory.
    I'm interested in San's take on this as well. I'm interested in adding a position as ballast for my portfolio, no more than 5-10%, thinking about splitting it up between GLD and a miner ETF.

    Frankly I'm pretty well versed in equities and debt instruments but I know fuck all about commodities.

  16. #1216
    For any of the MJ guys, I've been studying and building a position in CURLF.

    Anyone else follow it? How about any of the others? They seem to be in a more normal range for now.

  17. #1217
    Quote Originally Posted by tony bagadonuts View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post


    Oh yeah - they all religious Zealots for Gold. Itís beyond crazy esp when you consider how it really has under performed the market for the last 8 years.

    Iíd appreciate if you had a look San. My chart reading is rusty but it seems like most ETF/Miners are in breakout territory.
    I'm interested in San's take on this as well. I'm interested in adding a position as ballast for my portfolio, no more than 5-10%, thinking about splitting it up between GLD and a miner ETF.

    Frankly I'm pretty well versed in equities and debt instruments but I know fuck all about commodities.
    I follow these two guys on twitter...both seem to be pretty solid with their charting...ive been strangling the gold market and added a little heavier to my short put side when I saw the first tweet...4 more trading days to go...


     
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      tony bagadonuts:
      
      Daly: Good stuff

  18. #1218
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Was a little nervous at the Bell this AM but the gold market bounced right back. $IAG held at the previois month high of $3.79 and shot back up to the 9 month high of $3.85.

    Key resistance is at $3.90, $4.00 and 4.24.

    If this thing sees $4.25 it puts $4.95 in play and then $6.25. Anything over $6.25 would be an enormous opertunity.... like a march to the all time High...$11, $16 and $22.


    Letís hope for a BIG move here.

  19. #1219
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Name:  3DE3D8E5-2DF7-445A-8B82-EC3E294802B3.png
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  20. #1220
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    And if it holds today is the day we have been waiting for $4 broken. $4.25 is next and I would be surprised if that isnít tested at some point.

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