nice betting race.
i like a couple of longshots.
dance with fate and asserting bear....also looking at the hippzster...will likely pair w/ a couple of the fav/speed horses
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1661550
nice betting race.
i like a couple of longshots.
dance with fate and asserting bear....also looking at the hippzster...will likely pair w/ a couple of the fav/speed horses
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1661550
Agreed that this is a superb betting race. As usual, there are a lot of questionmarks because of the surface which will require skillful strategic alternative betting strategies. Also, the big field raises trip issues. I think the three horses likely put forth the best performances are -- Extrasexyhippzster, Pablo Del Monte, and Vinceremos.Originally Posted by mulva
Pablo Del Monte is undefeated over the surface running two huge blow out performances. He is the ultimate horse for course. He has been running credibly on dirt. My biggest issue with him is that I absolutely hate his jockey (Victor Espinoza). The guy is at least accustomed to riding on the plastic and the horse has a good post, so maybe he will not blow the first turn. I wish they put Desormeaux back on him. There is also a questionmark on this horse's ability to get the distance (although the Giant's Causeway in him helps a lot).
Extrasexyhippzster has a ton going for him. He has great speed figures. He is bred to love the plastic (His mother loved the Presque Isle surface). His jockey is an excellent local jockey, very competent, but not terribly experienced in the Grade 1 large field atmosphere. I like him better than Espinoza and the horse has a good post, good tactical speed, and should find a good trip. The questionmark on this horse is also the distance. Like Pablo Del Monte, he has only had one two turn race and like Pablo Del Monte, it was his worst.
I think that Medal Count is a toss and he should be second choice and take a lot of money. I also think Bobby's Kitten doesn't have to be there. I am not going to toss him, but I am going to make sure if my horses run in, that I do not have to have him with my horses to hit. While he (Bobby's Kitten) is a solid enough horse, he is not so good to justify his likely favoritism in the race.
Vinceremos would likely be an easy standout/single but for his awful post and likely loss of ground on the first turn. Nevertheless, he remains a very live horse in this spot. Unlike the others I spotlight, this guy has run twice around two turns and handled it beautifully. Grade 3 winner and Grade 2 second at 1 and 1/16th. Never tried the plastic before, but pedigree looks like he should be able to handle it. Prado is off due to injury and Leparoux knows this track well. Leparoux tends to either give phenomenal rides or disaster rides. I tend towards this horse getting a decent trip because the horse seems to put himself in the right place. the real questionmark to me is whether he is good enough to give up the ground he will lose on the first turn.
i don't like vince from this post at all. the hipster is a shot in the dark..there are questions...he may be too cheap, can't get the distance, or take to the track...lol..(why am i even considering him).but he couldn't grab the track at all in his last start at aqueduct....as for pablo..i have to let this horse beat me...seems like a wiseguy horse for the course, and ward always blows smoke up everybody's ass..you can't be serious about a TC horse with his pattern of races...Agreed that this is a superb betting race. As usual, there are a lot of questionmarks because of the surface which will require skillful strategic alternative betting strategies. Also, the big field raises trip issues. I think the three horses likely put forth the best performances are -- Extrasexyhippzster, Pablo Del Monte, and Vinceremos.
Pablo Del Monte is undefeated over the surface running two huge blow out performances. He is the ultimate horse for course. He has been running credibly on dirt. My biggest issue with him is that I absolutely hate his jockey (Victor Espinoza). The guy is at least accustomed to riding on the plastic and the horse has a good post, so maybe he will not blow the first turn. I wish they put Desormeaux back on him. There is also a questionmark on this horse's ability to get the distance (although the Giant's Causeway in him helps a lot).
Extrasexyhippzster has a ton going for him. He has great speed figures. He is bred to love the plastic (His mother loved the Presque Isle surface). His jockey is an excellent local jockey, very competent, but not terribly experienced in the Grade 1 large field atmosphere. I like him better than Espinoza and the horse has a good post, good tactical speed, and should find a good trip. The questionmark on this horse is also the distance. Like Pablo Del Monte, he has only had one two turn race and like Pablo Del Monte, it was his worst.
I think that Medal Count is a toss and he should be second choice and take a lot of money. I also think Bobby's Kitten doesn't have to be there. I am not going to toss him, but I am going to make sure if my horses run in, that I do not have to have him with my horses to hit. While he (Bobby's Kitten) is a solid enough horse, he is not so good to justify his likely favoritism in the race.
Vinceremos would likely be an easy standout/single but for his awful post and likely loss of ground on the first turn. Nevertheless, he remains a very live horse in this spot. Unlike the others I spotlight, this guy has run twice around two turns and handled it beautifully. Grade 3 winner and Grade 2 second at 1 and 1/16th. Never tried the plastic before, but pedigree looks like he should be able to handle it. Prado is off due to injury and Leparoux knows this track well. Leparoux tends to either give phenomenal rides or disaster rides. I tend towards this horse getting a decent trip because the horse seems to put himself in the right place. the real questionmark to me is whether he is good enough to give up the ground he will lose on the first turn.
the hipster's last race..i have to say if there was something wrong, he still spit it out late..this doesn't bode well for the distance..
i have to say i really like the 1 horse,asserting bear. i don't like the jock, but she may be familiar w/ the horse and more manageable to the trainer. last was a sneaky good race and he could be in good position just behind the leaders...distance and surface presents no problems
.if i was in one of those horse handicapping contests i would prolly shoot one of my bullets on this 15-20-1 shot..
i think it's hard not to use napravnik as well..last was a monster...i'm hoping both the 1 and 4 aren't cheap..
right now i'm looking at
145811..and something w/ the 2 on it...but something tells me not to put so much emphasis on the spiral...so i will have to look thingsover more....one thing is for sure....i won't be using pletcher or romans. if they beat me from out there, sobeit
spiral
cut and paste stuff
Bluegrass Stakes 2014 Preview
Published by admin on April 9, 2014 | Leave a response
An over-fill field of horses has targeted the Bluegrass Stakes in 2014. Some crazy upsets and strange fractions and running styles have populated this field the last few years. Street Sense and Dullahan, are a couple of horses who have used this as a prep to finish in the money in Louisville. All the entrants are currently short of making the derby on points. So top 2 positions will be jockeying for possible Derby starts. Since All Weather Surface installed – favorites are zero for seven.
Bobby’s Kitten is the proven class. Runs a solid race every time. Opened his career with a tough loss and then came back with back to back wins in a maiden race and the Pilgrim stakes. Best races have been on the engine and has done well with fast fractions and slow fractions. In the Breeder’s Cup he set fast fractions and yielded late to quality European opposition. Nobody in this field fits that mold. Bobby’s Kitten has been pointed to a 2-race campaign all spring. His comeback win was an easy spot at Tampa Baby, setting the pace and rating nicely in the facile score over the talented Global View. Solid workout tab since last race. Progeny of Kitten’s Joy love the polytrack at Keeneland. Distance and surface should not be an issue. Expecting a big race. This is his Golden Ticket to the Kentucky if he can finish in the top 2. Below is the workout last week by Bobby on the Poly. A Prrrrrfect work. Stay Calm and Buy a Kitten’s Joy!
Casiguapo makes his first start since a disappointing sprint race at Gulfstream back in early February. May have peaked as a juvenile as he regressed the latter half of 2013. Bargain purchase for 5K has earned over 287,000 and growing. Running style suggests he may come off the pace in this race.
Big Bazinga comes in off a Spiral Stakes start and finished evenly after running behind the leaders early in the race and tucking in towards the rail coming into the stretch. Was outrun late in that race and not sure if he is ready to take on some classy turf and All Weather horses in this race. Longshot.
Dance With Fate has been banging heads on the west coast with Tamarando and came up a head short at Golden Gate in the El Camino Real Stakes. Running style has been that of a closer and has the ability to press the pace. Faces tougher horses and deep field of horses. May be overmatched in this field with some proven All Weather surface ability and not sure if I want to take a low price in a race with a full field.
Coltimus Prime disappointed in the Tampa Bay Derby, but goes back to preferred surface. Showed talent and speed at Woodbine as a juvenile and is capable of improving on the 2nd start of form cycle. Ultimately may be prepping for bigger things North of the border. Possibly part of the pace but prefer others to set the pace. Should finish in top half of field.
Extrasexyhippszter was overmatched in Gotham Stakes and on paper looks over-matched in this race. The Laurel/Park/Delaware form is not holding up well in the Derby preps this season. Can’t endorse. I’m not sure why he is in this race.
Harry’s Holiday was originally going to train up to the Kentucky Derby, but with points being needed to make the race, they are forced to enter the Bluegrass looking for a 4th place or better finish. Outran his odds in most recent race and adds some speed and pace pressure. Last race was a big effort on Turfway surface. Now goes up in class. Hard to imagine him in the top 4 with this group of horses.
Divine Oath is undefeated with two nice wins on the turf. Last race rallied into a furious pace winning with a big closing rush down the lane. If the pace is hot and collapses this guy will be running late. Would not be a complete surprise to see him in the winners circle and fits better than some of the horses in this race. Currently on the Also Eligible list looking in.
Pablo Del Monte is 2 for 2 at Keeneland. Disappointed with a soft winter campaign. Has been knocking heads with Wildcat Red and General A Rod in his past performances. Talented runner last fall has had bizarre schedule. Shipped West for a Turf race. Ran in dirt races. Went to Ocala. Not much of a game plan but back on surface where he has shown speed and won a couple of races. Look for an improved effort and is intriguing on this surface at a price.
Asserting Bear finished a competitive 4th in the Spiral Stakes. Rough trip in that race getting shuffled back on the turn, then making a move entering the stretching and diving to the inside and was running late to complete the Super. Best races have been on the All Weather surface and with 2 prep races may be able to go back to a career top in this race. Fits on class and distance should not be a problem. Solid distance horse names are in the pedigree in Assert and Lemon Drop Kid. Still has some upside.
Gala Award goes to the All Weather surface with 3 straight solid turf efforts. His last race on a fast, front-running turf course he won a thrilling stretch run in the Palm Beach over a game Mr. Speaker. Big price tag as a September purchase for 1.5 million dollars. Palm Beach has been a productive Turf to poly prep over the years and running style suggests he can force the pace or sit right off the pace. Second most likely winner to Bobby’s Kitten and in with a big chance. Post position draw did him no favors. May have to use some early zip to establish position.
Coastline is a son of Speighstown who have done well on the Synthetic surface. Woke up in his last race in the Spiral Stakes and while finish 3rd pressed the pace with a 3-wide trip in slow time. His Oaklawn races were sub-par and not sure if he improved in last race or faced a lower quality of horses. But he has shown ability at times as a juvenile and should like the poly. Hard to toss and his running style puts him at a disadvantage with Gala Award and Bobby’s Kitten with proven speed and proven class. Still think he makes some money this summer running in a lot of Derby’s.
Medal Count wheels back in the Bluegrass on a one-week turn-around after dominating the washed off the turf Transylvania Stakes on opening day. Horse has talent. Distance pedigree and he seems to like the surface. Won in-hand last week and skipped over the surface. Tough post position but may be able to come right back with a top 3 finish. One of the top contenders.
Vinceramos is a son of Pioneerof the Nile has shown grit and determination in all 4 career starts. His debut race came in a rainstorm at Gulfstream where he chased a front-running slop monster. In his second race he took the lead in midstretch and then kind of waited late while shortening stride and holding on to the victory. At Tampa Bay he rode the rail to an upset victory in a strange race. The fractions were moderate at Tampa Bay in the Sam F Davis, but he slipped through on the rail when the speed contested and weakened into to the turn. Taking the lead he looked like he was home and several horses came running late and he snagged the victory. In the Tampa Bay Derby he chased the front-runner Ring Weekend around the track and held off Conquest Titan and Surfing USA down the stretch. Recent works indicate fitness and his sire was very strong on the synthetic surface. Speed Figures are on the slow side, but the move to poly neutralizes that. Possible he could improve in this spot.
The Pace:
Bobby’s Kitten does his best running dictating the pace and letting his class take him to the lead and letting others chase. Turf races as a juvenile were slow fractions against other horses who could not keep up. Gala Award will stalk as a presser, but post position hurts. Coastline is capable of showing speed on this surface. Pace could get contested. A contested pace at Keenelaland poly usually results in favoring closers.
The Choice:
Favorites are a very poor bet in Graded Stakes Races and in the Bluegrass since going to Polytrack. But Bobby’s Kitten looks like the play, based on class, speed and form and should like the distance. This is his prep to make the derby and assume they are all in. Expecting a big effort from Bobby’s Kitten. Gala Award deserves an upset change. Next Group of horses is Pablo Del Monte, Coastline, and Asserting Bear.
Post some picks, I know nothing about horse racing but love betting on it. Definitely gonna watch this later
i'm going to box the 1458 - the position on these horses should be good. two up front and 2 close behind.....the four horse ran such a huge race w/ naprvnik last out, i'm worried about a bounce..but i can't toss...i'm also playing 5-2 and 5-9 str8..i would like to mix in some 20-40-1 long shots on my main ticket, but i don't want to get involved that much and box five of them, let alone 6 of them...but in not doing this i eliminate my chances at a 500 to 2k exacta..i guess it could pay 5 hundo for 1-4 finish. but it will prolly be closer to 3bills if it hits
only a cheap $14 investment...w/o the win bet
last horse out was coastline. too much inside speed and his post decided it for me...hope it doesn't haunt me....i'll take a stand against pletch and romans without any regret..the low prices vs post makes it easy for me to do so.
i want to play both the 1 and 8 to win.....have to see odds before i do.... if i had any balls i would throw a c-note on both.
Last edited by mulva; 04-12-2014 at 06:53 AM.
This really is one of the best betting races I have seen in a long time.
I really think the 5 and the 14 are bet against bets here.
I totally tossed the 14 and only used the 5 in one bet.
Now it is just trying to figure out which long shots will get there as I don't see a lot of difference in about 6 of these horses. Should be a great race.
April 12 3:59 PM Keeneland 11 $0.50 TR (PWHL) 4, 5 / 4, 5, 12 / 2, 4, 5, 12 $4.00
April 12 3:57 PM Keeneland 11 $0.50 TR (PWHL) 4 / 3, 6, 11 / 3, 6, 11 $3.00
April 12 3:56 PM Keeneland 11 $0.10 SF (PWHL) 3, 12 / 3, 4, 6, 12 / 2, 3, 4, 6, 11, 12 / 2, 3, 4, 6, 11, 12 $7.20
April 12 3:53 PM Keeneland 11 $0.50 TR (PWHL) 12 / 4, 6, 9 / 4, 6, 9 $3.00
April 12 3:51 PM Keeneland 11 $1.00 EX (BOX ) 4, 7, 12 $6.00
April 12 3:51 PM Keeneland 11 $1.00 EX (BOX ) 2, 3, 4 $6.00
Shows how tough this game is.....you correctly tossed the favorite and second choice in a 14 horse field and you still could not get a piece of the exacta. I am in the same boat as you. Was licking my chops on this one. The good news is this is the last plastic surface meet at Keeneland. This result was purse plastic specialists. The top five finishers were all horses that had won on the plastic previously 4th and 5th place being rank outsiders. There were 6 horses who never raced on the plastic including the 2 top choices we both threw out, but also two of the three horses I liked. Should have learned my lesson years ago to just pass on betting on the plastic. Oh well.
Solid Write up Abrown. Appreciate seeing the betting style and the thought process behind the wager. Even when trying to beat a fave there are so many variations in a large field. Makes it tough to cover all the possibilities without dropping some serious coin covering the alls and whatnot. The parimutual gambling is such a tight line. Large takeout is tough to beat unless you are snagging a decent ADW rebate.
California Chrome is the only horse gaining steam nearing the Derby. Bayhern flopped and will not qualify, and Danzo is a Pletcher joke entry.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Reply With Quote