santa juanita + wood memorial pp

[mulva]

lol @ half the horses in the santa anita..

santa anita

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1337296

wood memorial

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1309100

[mulva]

look at this horse, kid cruz running in the wood memorial.

legendary trainer bill mott and black swan stables put this horse in a maiden claiming race for 50k late last year as a 2yr old. he was put in the maiden claiming because of his initial poor start on turf in MSW.

linda rice claimed the horse after the 6L maiden win and has since won a 100k race .


here's the goof..after BLACK SWAN STABLES had to release the horse to rice, they approached her to buy back a minority ownership.


the new owners agreed a week after they claimed the horse to sell back some,..now i'm sure they wish they hadn't sold any back.


so much fail on the part of bill mott and black swan stables (john destefano)


here is the horse winning it's last race..last to first

[Lurker1998]

Agree with Mulva that it is remarkable that there are so many maidens and NW1X horses in the SAD. Also, Kid Cruz is something. What a claim. I have a ton of interesting claiming stories.

Will look at the races overnight tonight and post any thoughts I might have. I can tell you I do not like Social Inclusion at all and if he manages to win the Wood, I think he will be a massive bet against in the Derby (if he makes it to the Derby, he looks to me like a horse with a lot of issues and I cannot believe they will manage to keep him together long enough....especially off another huge effort in the Wood if he gives one). I think the locally based horses are very underrated due to their being NYBreds....I think if they were KYBreds people would think they are a lot better.

FYI, in the SAD, there is a lot of steam that the Hofmans horse has been working lights out. Based on morning work, he is supposed to look really good. You need to take stuff like that with a grain of salt, but I also think you need to forgive the effort first time off the layoff and try to figure out where he is off his effort in Del Mar. The Derby is obviously a jockeys' race as the huge field produces serious trip troubles. I think Talamo is one of the most underrated riders out there. If I had Derby horse and could have pick of jockeys, he could conceivably be my top pick, yet he doesn't have a Derby horse yet. If this horse runs well (that is a very big if), and Talamo is on him in the gate at Churchill, I think that moves him up.

[mulva]

Agree with Mulva that it is remarkable that there are so many maidens and NW1X horses in the SAD. Also, Kid Cruz is something. What a claim. I have a ton of interesting claiming stories.

Will look at the races overnight tonight and post any thoughts I might have. I can tell you I do not like Social Inclusion at all and if he manages to win the Wood, I think he will be a massive bet against in the Derby (if he makes it to the Derby, he looks to me like a horse with a lot of issues and I cannot believe they will manage to keep him together long enough....especially off another huge effort in the Wood if he gives one). I think the locally based horses are very underrated due to their being NYBreds....I think if they were KYBreds people would think they are a lot better.

FYI, in the SAD, there is a lot of steam that the Hofmans horse has been working lights out. Based on morning work, he is supposed to look really good. You need to take stuff like that with a grain of salt, but I also think you need to forgive the effort first time off the layoff and try to figure out where he is off his effort in Del Mar. The Derby is obviously a jockeys' race as the huge field produces serious trip troubles. I think Talamo is one of the most underrated riders out there. If I had Derby horse and could have pick of jockeys, he could conceivably be my top pick, yet he doesn't have a Derby horse yet. If this horse runs well (that is a very big if), and Talamo is on him in the gate at Churchill, I think that moves him up.

i disagree about SI. while the horse only had 2 starts, he was a beast of godly proportions in his track record performance last out. there are a few things that bother me about him in the wood. firstly,..the wood has quality horses in it.....most/all are eligible to get better..and that's just the lower portion of the talent in this race...secondly,..his post and the speed directly inside him. sammy and sigh will both be gunning..if kristo, moon and harpoon go..what then?..... i don;t know which horses inside of them might want to leave for position....that just means SI will have to work that much harder if he wants the front end and he might not make it....the owner/trainer of this horse had a plan of entering this race and then going to pimlico....that has since changed w/ his track record performance, and now they want the derby....so SI should be souped up once again.

as for the SA race...the chrome is a standout...but 2nd/3rd is up in the air....schoolrox is so much of a wildcard he can go either way in terms of performance....and his odds will be sweet underneath chrome.

prettyboy/dublin/big tire are inseparable....you can't just use one of them and expect to make the right call if any of them decide i'm ready to improve and get 2nd/3rd.

candy boy will be overbet, but he's being prepped for this race, and if he's anything 2/3rd will be easy for him.....can' toss baffert either..could be in good position, but something tells me he might bounce...but i wouldn't bet on that happening....position will be key

[mulva]

Kid Cruz, considered by some to be a live longshot in Saturday’s Grade 1, $1 million Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, will scratch from that race, trainer Linda Rice said Friday.

they will scratch because of a sore shoulder and look to the ark derby----i think this is as mart move for the cruz camp....the wood has so much talent in it. the ark derby shouldn't...and imo the connections want center stage TC coverage, and the ark will be an easier path if the horse is good enough.

[Lurker1998]

well, just handicapped both races and find both very unappealing from a betting standpoint. i do not feel there is any way to bet either of these races where there is an angle against the way the crowd is likely to bet it. I find way more interesting the likely impact on the Derby.

I think Social Inclusion has a low chance of making the Derby at all. if he does get there, he will be a collosal bet against. As far as in the Wood, I can't see betting on him or against him. part of me will just root for him to blow away this field so that the Derby odds will get tasty for other horses. he has had too little time in between his races and his blow out fig was simply too huge an effort for a horse of his age to be able to duplicate any time soon (and if he does, it has to take a toll, especially without giving him sufficient recovery from such efforts). The Gotham pair look obvious and both should run well again and be right there. The interesting horse in the Wood is Shivarelli...this horse has not run since before Social Inclusion's debut. Eddie Kenneally is handling this horse beautifully. Who knows if the horse will be good enough (I think so), but there is no question that Kenneally is givng this horse every chance to be a good one. Comparing the handling of Shivarelli to Social Inclusion tells the story if you ask me....>Shivarelli should have a nice long and good career and do very well. Social Inclusion has really been rushed and he is going to pay for that later down the line. I think the owner is a nut job. He must not care at all about money....to be offered $8 million for 75% of the horse was an insanely good offer. The value of this horse is going to be way less in just one month (although it could go up with a good Wood effort).

The Santa Anita Derby is almost most unappealing. California Chrome should have everything his own way and should wire the field. But zero value at the odds he will be. The big problem I see is that if he ends up firing off a big effort, he could easily fire his KY Derby shot in this race. If I had this horse, he woudl not be racing this weekend...this horse has already done plenty and should have just been trained into the KY Derby. I do not feel as pessimistic about his future as I do about Social Inclusion. If he can win the SA Derby with a moderate effort, he will look pretty strong for the Derby with really only the pace issue being the knock on him. I like Baffert's horse better than Sadler's, but there is no value there. There is zero interesting in this race and I would never bet it.

if i had to bet one of these races (my preference would be to skip), I would just do a 4 horse exacta box in the Wood of 7,8,10,11. However, i wouldnt feel great about it.

[mulva]

you're looking deep w/ shivarelli...price should be right..another longshot that's trending up is mott's, los borracho's...prolly the longest shot on the board, and can't dismiss 100% either..some like wicked strong but i'm not one of them

my longshots will be noble moon and harpoon. harpoon is sitting on a big race imo, and should be forwardly placed

you could see a contentious pace and it's quite possible that the 8/10/11 all miss the board......and a subsequent $500 to 2k exacta

[HEX]

lol at Social Inclusion's owner's foolishness at not taking the $8M offer for his horse and at his arrogance for thinking it was a foregone conclusion that he was gonna win the Wood. That was the most obvious horse to fade imaginable, and he actually ran better than I expected. Unfortunately, the winner was almost impossible to come up with. I tried to beat him with Uncle Sigh, but that sure didn't work out at all. I feel bad that it wasn't Samraat who beat him, but I think Samraat is still a good Derby horse. California Chrome will be the huge favorite off another really big performance today, but I like Constitution a lot. To bad we won't get to find out how good Shared Belief is until later in the year.

[mulva]

lol at Social Inclusion's owner's foolishness at not taking the $8M offer for his horse and at his arrogance for thinking it was a foregone conclusion that he was gonna win the Wood. That was the most obvious horse to fade imaginable, and he actually ran better than I expected. Unfortunately, the winner was almost impossible to come up with. I tried to beat him with Uncle Sigh, but that sure didn't work out at all. I feel bad that it wasn't Samraat who beat him, but I think Samraat is still a good Derby horse. California Chrome will be the huge favorite off another really big performance today, but I like Constitution a lot. To bad we won't get to find out how good Shared Belief is until later in the year.

if uncle sigh didn;t get left in the gate, he would have left as well, and likely been right there...+ SI might have been off the board if he did. the dynamics changed....shivarelli ran well for 4th...and wicked strong finally got things right.....

i wonder what's next for SI...and you're right ...not taking 8mil for 51% has fail written all over it, considering that GP was playing fast and records were being made by other horses as well