40s. I probably should have less fixed income.Originally Posted by Pooh
How old are you? I'm in the S&P almost exclusively. I'm staying away from fixed income, period.
40s. I probably should have less fixed income.How old are you? I'm in the S&P almost exclusively. I'm staying away from fixed income, period.
SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798
PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL
I don't think beating the market is largely luck. I have been doing it for 15+ years. I buy stocks that people hate and sell/short stocks that people love. I was long the housing stocks when they were in the dumps and when PLOL came on this site and said LEN was his #1 pick...it was pretty much a CMONEY type of lock that they would tank. Right now everyone hates gold, silver, and the mining stocks. Even those who preached for years about gold hate it. I am loading up huge on the mining stocks right now: NEM, RGLD, ABX, GG, SLW. Why? Because everyone hates them. I am expecting them to rally 50-100% across the board and then I will sell them. Might take several months but I am patient.+1Not sure how many people here invest in the market or follow the economy. I've been following it for about 15 years and find it very interesting. I'm more or less a buy and hold dollar cost average investor so I will continue to invest regardless of what will happen in the future.
I predict the market will tank like nobodys business once they announce the big bad taper. We haven't had a 10% correction now in over a year which is unheard of. We're at the point now where the market actually goes down if there are strong economic numbers. Today was a great example.
I predict close to a 20% correction once they announce a reduction of QE. I also believe it will be a quick 20%..probably over the course of two months. After that I see the market rising to new heights, provided the economy sustains.
I don't believe 2014 will be an overall positive year in the markets especially given the past two years.
In non-taxable accounts I hold solid blue chip dividend-paying stocks with automatic reinvestment, a few funds for diversification, and a few high grade corporate bonds. In taxable accounts I hold high grade munis and treasuries, the market price of which I don't care about because I don't want to sell them, I want them to generate income so I can buy more. There is no special strategy that outperforms the market in the long term except what Einstein called the magic of compound interest (automatic reinvestment). People sometimes beat the market with a given strategy (a.k.a. a gamble) but it is mathematically proven that this is largely luck, like that Black Swan guy who made a huge gamble and happened to win and now people foolishly buy his books thinking he knows some secret about the market. There is no need to try to predict the short term or care what happens in the short term except that if you have spare cash laying around you should buy on dips. If you have serious amounts of cash like Warren Buffet then a different set of opportunities opens up for you and you can beat the market--like when Buffet lent billions to Goldman in the form of preferred stocks with a guaranteed dividend. For most of us though, just sit tight and let it accumulate, and get more conservative as you get older. Easy game.
Oh and LOL @ gold.
IAG and EXK are my favorites in the space....I don't think beating the market is largely luck. I have been doing it for 15+ years. I buy stocks that people hate and sell/short stocks that people love. I was long the housing stocks when they were in the dumps and when PLOL came on this site and said LEN was his #1 pick...it was pretty much a CMONEY type of lock that they would tank. Right now everyone hates gold, silver, and the mining stocks. Even those who preached for years about gold hate it. I am loading up huge on the mining stocks right now: NEM, RGLD, ABX, GG, SLW. Why? Because everyone hates them. I am expecting them to rally 50-100% across the board and then I will sell them. Might take several months but I am patient.
I have been waiting for a correction for so long to get more of the401k allocated to stocks but the market just keeps going up due to QE so I have a chunk just gathering dustNot sure how many people here invest in the market or follow the economy. I've been following it for about 15 years and find it very interesting. I'm more or less a buy and hold dollar cost average investor so I will continue to invest regardless of what will happen in the future.
I predict the market will tank like nobodys business once they announce the big bad taper. We haven't had a 10% correction now in over a year which is unheard of. We're at the point now where the market actually goes down if there are strong economic numbers. Today was a great example.
I predict close to a 20% correction once they announce a reduction of QE. I also believe it will be a quick 20%..probably over the course of two months. After that I see the market rising to new heights, provided the economy sustains.
I don't believe 2014 will be an overall positive year in the markets especially given the past two years.
Gold has been over priced for years, and is finally coming back down to acceptable levels. Also... bitcoins LOL... no but really if I could buy leap puts on bitcoins at $800 I'd so do it.
Amen to the LEAPS
I expected more inflation with all the QE...the game is sooo rigged its not funny
To taper or not to taper. We'll find out tomorrow...early afternoon. Its fifty fifty right now as to whether they reduce QE and if they do it will probably only reduce to around 70 B a month compared to 85 B now.
Personally, I feel they will hold off until next meeting at least. I don't think they pull the trigger before the holidays. I could be wrong on this one since every major economic report in the last month has been better than expected. This could really go either way.
There may be enough voices among the voting members of the Fed that will push tapering off until next year. Plus, this decision really should be made under the the new Fed chair.
I have nothing more than a guess, but I believe the Fed will taper tomorrow with a very small amount and more clearly outline what can be expected in the future. Even no tapering isn't likely to change the cemented view that the Fed is approaching the end of its monthly purchases.
They can't taper and never will be able to , even a whisper of it freezes the market as everyone prepares to sell off lol . The market is completely reliant on QEinfinity and FED knows it . They will only ever talk about tapering , you will never see them buy less bonds or MBS (junk lol) they will buy more before they buy less . Keynesians are funny people lol !
Don't ever doubt me.
you honestly have no clue what you're talking about. Nice.
Thanks for your expertise. The Fed announced the tapering yesterday and the market shot up 3%.
:gtfo
SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798
PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL
Ya they really tapered a lot lol (still buying 75 billion of assets no one else wants)! They also announced that they would continue to magically keep interest rates at 0% or negative lol ! You continue believing that you can print money to infinity , history proves you can't but the music continues to play for now .Thanks for your expertise. The Fed announced the tapering yesterday and the market shot up 3%.
:gtfo
Well see how the market is doing once FED stops the easy money , oh wait that will never happen until we lose reserve currency status .........
You have one big problem with the angle you are running here. It's not that you are wrong, eventually you (and the rest of the zero hedge crowd) will be dead right. The problem you have is you are making it sound like this ponzi is going to come crashing down tomorrow where in all likelihood its going to go on for many many more years. The entire world is in on this little scam we got going here and almost everyone is agreeing to the same lie afloat in order to keep the status quo going. The rest of the world is as vested as we are in keeping the current economic model going because when it all comes crashing down it's not just the USA thats going to plunge into the darkness.Ya they really tapered a lot lol (still buying 75 billion of assets no one else wants)! They also announced that they would continue to magically keep interest rates at 0% or negative lol ! You continue believing that you can print money to infinity , history proves you can't but the music continues to play for now .
Well see how the market is doing once FED stops the easy money , oh wait that will never happen until we lose reserve currency status .........
It's the old investment adage, the market can stay irrational much longer then you can stay solvent.
Pooh may have started another winning thread to rival..
Red Sox > Tigers - Chinamaniac
The Seahawks Own Your Face - Tony Bags
What a day. Yesterday was awful too. But you knew which way the wind was blowing this morning and there was almost no risk of being reversed. Smooth.
Dow -318.24
Nasdaq Composite -83.32
Stocks tanked and never threatened to rebound. Lotta action.
Not long term short but generally I agree that a correction is long overdue.
Pooh has no fucking clue. As soon as she said he'd never had a losing year in the market and that anyone who is not a dumbass should always expect returns I stopped listening to him. I mean seriously would you ever trust a tout that claims he can consistently pick 75 percent winners. I mean of course you would never ever do that. No one would. This is the same shit.
I don't recall ever saying I've never had a losing year in the market. I was clear when I said all my money is in the S&P. I made 30% last year. How much did you make? And yes, I took out 150k yesterday. If you don't believe me, then send Druff 1k and I'll prove it.
Pooh has no fucking clue. As soon as she said he'd never had a losing year in the market and that anyone who is not a dumbass should always expect returns I stopped listening to him. I mean seriously would you ever trust a tout that claims he can consistently pick 75 percent winners. I mean of course you would never ever do that. No one would. This is the same shit.
There's more to come in the market I think. Downtrends are usually somewhat short and violent.
Im just looking at my chart waiting for the gap down shortly (/ES).
yeah, i'll be waiting til sunday night. im a dumbass and didnt realize its friday.
Why am I sending Druff 1K? I never once doubted that your Dad gave you tons of money.I don't recall ever saying I've never had a losing year in the market. I was clear when I said all my money is in the S&P. I made 30% last year. How much did you make? And yes, I took out 150k yesterday. If you don't believe me, then send Druff 1k and I'll prove it.
There's more to come in the market I think. Downtrends are usually somewhat short and violent.
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