*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[ErickAA]

I was out of town all weekend with minimal internet access so didn’t do any sports betting, which is unfortunate because I would have faded lakers for sure. I will say as far as tanking goes, with the new lottery system it seems it is more important to focus on teams that can go up or down a tier than absolute placement.

The knicks for example are pretty much assured to be in the top 3, so they can actually play to win moving forward without risking anything. Whereas teams like the lakers and mavs can benefit greatly by dropping down a tier, so they are incentivized to lose.

I am busy this morning but will study the situation later today to see how to proceed moving forward.

[LegalizeMeth]

wheres simpdog at? I need to re-coup my poker losses

[simpdog]

Sent this to my supervisor for approval. Simp may be in a school play or something today. He hasn’t responded

He also hates when I post too much in the thread. He is the face of the franchise. I like talking wagering. It’s hard after a good day to stay calm.


I pulled the trigger and will unwind if he hates anything.

Woke up early

Standard Over 1P
Tampa/Toronto -195
Arizona/Chicago -180
San Jose/Minnesota -155

Under 1P
Carolina/Colorado +120

2 Team Parlay +164
Arizona/Chicago over 6.5 -110
Philly ML -260 Simp HATES the Senators

I got Celtics last night -1.5 vs Clippers.
Celts Young star Tatum is out tonight. Coin flip now

Gordon Hayward finally ballin'. Ankle looks good

Verminator, did you play tanking Dallas ML last night? I forgot

Only about 14 more NHL games. Lot will be meaningless now. It could even get dangerous if we use standard strategy at the end. Much sadness.

Running short on time. So I'm just cosigning a few picks.

Take the standard plays Tampa,Hawks,Sharks over 1st period.

Take Flyers ML or puck line. Take Hawks over for game.

But the most important reminder today is don't bet NBA.

[Sanlmar]

But the most important reminder today is don't bet NBA.

I have a weakness for Marlboro cigarettes, long legs and NBA. None of them are good for me.

I bought out of Celts Clippers

When Moe waddles up to the podium Friday at GA you tell ‘em I spent good juice to fight my vice

TABLET - BASKETBALL - NBA - 531 BOSTON CELTICS -1½ -110 FOR GAME

MOBILE - BASKETBALL - NBA - 532 LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS +2 -113 FOR GAME

[Dan Druff]

Sorry simp

Gotta go against your hometown

My second spread pick of the year:

Cleveland +8.5 vs. Toronto

Starting at 4:05 PDT

[Dan Druff]

In fact, I'm deciding to go half-and-half.

Half Cleveland +8.5
Half Cleveland moneyline +350

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

the weather was never in doubt...

[Sanlmar]

the weather was never in doubt...

Prilosec & LFG™

The refs are swallowing whistles and that’s concerning.

[Dan Druff]

In fact, I'm deciding to go half-and-half.

Half Cleveland +8.5
Half Cleveland moneyline +350

With this shitty Cleveland team consistently maintaining a 5-ish point lead so far, I'm happy with my decision to do a half-and-half.

[simpdog]

Didn’t sweat Tampa one bit

[Dan Druff]

Y'all gotta pay attention to what I've been doing with these NBA dogs.

I think I've found my new niche.

Provided Cleveland doesn't shit the bed, I'll be 4-0:

2/27 Chicago +140 at Memphis
3/7 OKC +145 at Portland
3/8 Memphis +180 at Utah
3/9 Cleveland +350 vs Toronto (still pending)

[simpdog]

Druff to be fair the viewers aren’t happy with 4-0 since 2/27

In hockey we went 4-1 yesterday and likely 3-1 tonight.

[Dan Druff]

Druff to be fair the viewers aren’t happy with 4-0 since 2/27

In hockey we went 4-1 yesterday and likely 3-1 tonight.

4-0 is not exciting by itself. A monkey flipping coins can go 4-0 eventually.

4-0 is even less exciting if you're picking big favorites.

For example, if picking four -200 favorites, you will go 4-0 about 20% of the time.

However, four sizable dogs out of four is a different story.

I hit +140, +145, +180, and +350.

That's the equivalent of going 9-0 on -110 spread or over/under picks.

[Sanlmar]

For example, if picking four -200 favorites, you will go 4-0 about 20% of the time.

What kind of Chinese math is that?

glad you hit something.

[Dan Druff]

For example, if picking four -200 favorites, you will go 4-0 about 20% of the time.

What kind of Chinese math is that?

glad you hit something.

Chinese math is the best math. Remember who always did the best in math class in high school?

But yes, I'm telling the truth. If you bet four -200 favorites, you will go 4-0 about 20% of the time.

Or, put a different way, if there were four -200 plays available every day, a monkey could be trained to auto-fire on them, and he would go 4-0 once every five days on average.

This is why I avoid big favorites. Hard to get an edge on those. It's very tough to tell whether your -200 bet should really be lined at -280.

The real gold is found in sides/totals (-110/-110) and underdog picks. Finding good dogs can be really profitable, as you will clean up if you're right just half the time.

My MLB strategy involves only betting totals and moneylines which are either dogs or -140 or better.

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

fuck the flyers

[simpdog]

fuck the flyers

No shit that was a tough one.

2-2 on the day rather than a nice 3-1 day.

I dumped more on the Hawks then anything else but still I'm disappointed. Ottawa is full of young kids and they keep hanging on to 1 goal losses.

[Sanlmar]

What kind of Chinese math is that?

glad you hit something.

Chinese math is the best math. Remember who always did the best in math class in high school?

But yes, I'm telling the truth. If you bet four -200 favorites, you will go 4-0 about 20% of the time.

Or, put a different way, if there were four -200 plays available every day, a monkey could be trained to auto-fire on them, and he would go 4-0 once every five days on average.

This is why I avoid big favorites. Hard to get an edge on those. It's very tough to tell whether your -200 bet should really be lined at -280.

The real gold is found in sides/totals (-110/-110) and underdog picks. Finding good dogs can be really profitable, as you will clean up if you're right just half the time.

My MLB strategy involves only betting totals and moneylines which are either dogs or -140 or better.

The guys think you are trolling. I promised just one post.

But yes, I'm telling the truth. If you bet four -200 favorites, you will go 4-0 about 20% of the time.

This is true if you are picking randomly as you appear to do with totals.

From yesterday

Sizzle used the term “value”. Druff influence.

Tampa -190 implied odds 66%. Tampa 1P 73%

Not gonna get into the other math that improves the expected profit.

Low or plus odds does not necessarily mean value.

It’s almost over anyway

We move on

The second I pushed enter on -190 I was +EV

Tampa of course won.

[Sanlmar]

Dear Druff

Standard Over 1P
Tampa/Toronto -195 W
Arizona/Chicago -180 W
San Jose/Minnesota -155 L

Under 1P
Carolina/Colorado +120 W

2 Team Parlay +164 W
Arizona/Chicago over 6.5 -110
Philly ML -260 Simp HATES the Senators

4-1-0

3.3 units

I won’t run like this in baseball but this has been almost routine in NHL. I had the wisdom to see a positive EV spot.

I don’t know shit about hockey. It’s just math.

[Dan Druff]

Sanlmar, the problem is you are just pressing buttons without thinking about what you're doing, and why.

This is what the books want you to do.

Human nature leads you to want to bet on what appears to be the more likely outcome, and of course human nature dictates you enjoy winning and dislike losing.

Joe bets four -200 favorites. He goes 2-2. Joe knows he didn't break even, but it kind of feels like he did. In reality, if Joe bet $200 on each game, he's down $200 despite going 2-2.

Mike bets three underdogs of +240 each. He goes 1-2. If he bet $200 on each, he finishes up $80. Yet Mike still feels annoyed, as if he lost. He knows he won, but he feels frustrated that 2 of his 3 picks lost. In fact, losing 2 out of 3 makes him not want to attempt to pick other dogs in the futre. After all, what if he goes 0-3 tomorrow?

This is what the books count on. They want you to fire on that -190 and feel great when it wins.

If you can fire that -190 and win 2/3 of the time (long term), then great. You're a +EV bettor.

But if that -190 only wins 60% of the time, you'll slowly bleed your money away, and won't know where it went.