You and I have a lot of fun but that is sickeningOriginally Posted by Dan Druff
The OT frequency has to be mathematically impossible
You and I have a lot of fun but that is sickening
The OT frequency has to be mathematically impossible
At least I felt the pain too.You and I have a lot of fun but that is sickening
The OT frequency has to be mathematically impossible
Raps played like shit first half, then should have won in regulation. Are up 107-102 in OT and then you let Detroit go on a 10-0 run. WTF?
Reffing was awful IMO as well. They were on the Pistons all the way.
Hawks made us sweat that one out.
I feel this is the hockey gods saying, 'yeah here's a little refund from DAL last night'...
+120 with 10 minutes to go in the period...nice little plus money on those two teams...
my book still had a live line up with 45 seconds to go...+950/-2000...thought to myself, that crazy fucker san mighta just put some lunch money on the over there...
I bet down to 1.0 +125
Gonna frame that picture with your scoreboard & time, GBCP
Right up there with Bobby Orr diving after goal
Last edited by Sanlmar; 03-03-2019 at 07:56 PM.
The real problem is the first period picks were 3-0. stick to the plan
0-2 smaller bets on Raptors + Florida puck line.
Need the Hawks over 6.5 to make it a really nice day and end a great week.
No 1st periods tomorrow for me.
Buffalo at home ML is my only NHL play and San told me if I bet NBA tomorrow even $1 I really will have to go to GA on Tuesday.
Clippers Lakers with no wager.
Night off
Shout out to Onsestep for betting Kyrie Celts fail. Lakers east
great day boys...looking forward to the full slate on Tuesday...
thanks again simp...
Simp was feeling bad about Druff’s wagering troubles. He thought I might take another crack at some wagering theory but this time with a little less vitriol.
I told Simp starting a GoFundMe page for Druff would be more productive. Druff just ain’t that fluid mentally.
Druff’s post above indicates Druff is aware of some elementary wagering theory. This is good. Let’s escalate the thought and theory.
I took some time and thought I’d use the NBA totals as a relatable analogue.
In 2014-15 51% of NBA teams would reach a 100 points. This year it’s like 89%.
Scoring is up for many reasons.
NBA teams were called for 19.9 fouls per game last season; this season, it's up to 23.1.
The league's officials are emphasizing what the NBA calls "freedom of movement" this season, an effort to clean up some of the extra contact that happens away from the ball and impedes offensive players from cutting and getting open. There are tighter whistles.
The NHL is doing similar things with officiating. Imagine instead of a free throw we removed a player from the opposing team. What might the effect be on scoring?
Tempo is being pushed and more 3’s are being taken. This applicable equally to both the Blackhawks as the Warriors.
Now imagine that the books still offered a NBA 100 point team total and the only adjustment they made was with the juice?
What if the NHL still offered a line each of the 3 periods that was 1.5 but the average total score was 6? All they did was adjust the juice.
Addendum: there are other details with respect to how overnight lines are floated and set by non US facing global books and how NHL is vastly less efficient at 8am vs NBA.
This is too advanced for this discussion. Oh, snap. I did it again.
Last edited by Sanlmar; 03-04-2019 at 12:03 PM.
great post san...you sir are 100% correct...will be interesting to see what happens next year with this...but hell they aren't gonna adjust the 1.5, might as well pound 'em while we can...
that's why I brought up the point of arb-ing a few pages back...the overnight and day ahead lines I can get on certain heavy over teams are a pittance compared to what they settle at...im gonna look at what i get at open and see if i want to do it tomorrow...don't know if there's gonna be enough juice behind the teams i want to do it on (PIT/TB, maybe DAL but the under juice doesn't seem to pop as much)...ideally you get these overs in the -150 range and hope they pop to -220 by puck drop...you aren't gonna make a shitton doing it, maybe $100 or so if you float $1000 on the OVER, but hey a free bottle of bourbon and a few cigars ain't bad for letting the markets do what they're gonna do...
if i remember, ill post my early lines when they are set sometime this evening and see what we are around puck drop...
Still just on Buffalo.
If you're feeling REALLY frisky and have money to waste, take Tor/CGY under 1.5 first period for +155 or better.
nothing like simp approved degening action...
Lakers/clippers O234.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the total was 250.
Thought we had a night offnothing like simp approved degening action...
MOBILE - HOCKEY - NHL - 18 BUFFALO SABRES -125 FOR GAME
Maybe it's time to do overs, since I'm such a tremendous OT magnet.
Even Sanlmar admits he's astounded by this.
Here's a pick where I WON'T be unhappy to see OT:
New Orleans at Utah - OVER 231
Starts 6:05pm PT
BTW, in case you're worried about Davis and his illness, he's going to play tonight.
Okafor is out though.
Never mind, I retract the pick. Anthony Davis ISN'T playing. The report I read was incorrect.
I deleted the pick which I posted a few minutes ago.
Forget it. Haven't bet it yet.
Never never mind.
Anthony Davis IS playing, and the pick is back on.
Screwed up info went over the wire, and was reported that he was sitting.
However, here's the clarification from rotoworld.
Updating a previous report, Anthony Davis (illness) will play on Monday against the Jazz.
An earlier report from a Utah beat reporter stated that Davis would be taking the night off, but Pelicans' head coach Alvin Gentry just confirmed that AD will indeed be out there. He'll still have his minutes monitored, so Cheick Diallo could have a solid evening with Jahlil Okafor (ankle) unavailable. Davis owners can go ahead and get him active, and with no back-to-back sets this week, there's a chance AD suits up for all four games.
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