really amazing how much prices move...when I made my post at 9AM ET the prices were still at where I got them last night...now the lightning is 35 higher...interestingly enough CHI is only 9 higher...Originally Posted by simpdog
really amazing how much prices move...when I made my post at 9AM ET the prices were still at where I got them last night...now the lightning is 35 higher...interestingly enough CHI is only 9 higher...
Ducks are an under team.really amazing how much prices move...when I made my post at 9AM ET the prices were still at where I got them last night...now the lightning is 35 higher...interestingly enough CHI is only 9 higher...
Hawks burned everyone against Colorado too.
yeah that's the only reason the price is semi reasonable on them...TB seems to be undeterred by any of that shit...always worries me paying a big price when an under team is involved...maybe shoulda waited to live bet 'em, get like 130/140 and let the chips fall...oh well...Ducks are an under team.
Hawks burned everyone against Colorado too.
I most likely wont be firing on this, but if you want a line that smells like absolute shit, @NOVA (-5) v. MARQ...
as I've mentioned I watch damn near every NOVA game...team has looked like dogshit recently...blew an early 16 point lead against STJ, which shouldn't happen to this team...got trucked by GTWON and then again by X...I would say NOVA has hit a wall, but it's more like the wall has been coming at them at 200 MPH and hit them...
now the most consistent/probably best team in the BE comes to NOVA and they are getting 5?!?!? that doesn't compute...you need some Degen action at 9PM ET and want to fire small i'd take NOVA (-5) because it absolutely makes zero sense for NOVA to be favored, let alone by that much...
Hawks o1.5 1p
Tampa o1.5 1p
Devils o1.5 1p
Hope you got them early the juice is pretty hefty now.
Smaller
Oilers/Leafs u1.5 1p
Avs/Canucks u1.5 1p
Last minute:
Houston at Charlotte - Under 227
Fired these.
Got +130 on Leafs under, +100 on Canucks under
Here's my first sides NBA wager this season. Well, it's actually a moneyline.
Chicago +140 at Memphis
simp, since I've only been closely watching your NHL stuff recently, how have the 1st period overs done when the large favorite lines are factored in?
I am no NHL expert by any means, but from a strict sportsbetting theory standpoint, it is tough to make money betting on heavy favorites over the long term. This is especially true because these tend to be very "public", as the average sportsbettor likes both favorites and overs (and these tend to be both).
From a theoretical standpoint, strategically selected 1st period unders might be the real gem here (which is why I fired on those today and skipped the overs).
I'm not saying all public plays are bad (look at fading Ottawa last night, which was a golden pick, despite my initial grumbling about the 1st period), but I would be interested to know how these over 1st periods are doing money-wise.
Leafs under looked great crossing the 10 minute mark 0-0.
Now Oilers scored, and I have to sweat out the final 8 minutes.
Damnit.
Don’t have the time to run throw the record and the returns again.
Suffice it to say that the game has changed in several fundamental ways. The market is just now catching up - a little bit.
If the average score is 6 and there are 3 periods but I offer 1.5 like 2009 what do you think is gonna happen?
The way lines are set overnight leans toward the European side and the NHL sharps really aren’t participating.
There are opportunities with books that are completely out to lunch early that I don’t have access to.
This isn’t regression to mean stuff or anything you are experienced with aside from NBA kind of. Still don’t think you have caught up there either
kid is right...price is everything with these...I got TB at 190 before I went to bed...didn't feel super about it, but last I checked it was 225/230...
with a team hitting almost 80% against a team that leans over (NYR) 190 is a pretty damn good price even though it seems like you are paying out the ass...
I could buy Simp a lap dance but instead I’m treating myself to this Lakers fade.
If Lakers lose I can cash my futures tomorrow
MOBILE - BASKETBALL - NBA - 527 NEW ORLEANS PELICANS +195 FOR GAME
Lakers are dreadful ATS and taking points prolly woulda been right but this is about fun.
Anthony Davis claims he is sitting 4th qtr. we will see.
Love to continue talking wagering but I’m prolly in the wrong place.
Markets adjusting to changes in sport - and those rare opportunities
MLB tossing ideas out there like raising the mound or going from 60’6” to 61 or 62. Might there be an opportunity? What if the first 70 games revealed a 62-8 trend and no one yet adjusted?
Or you could just fade it. I shot Simp a story about Druff’s brother who is down 300k so far fading the 1P’s
Kentucky dropped to +800, from +1400, to win the NCAA championship.....
"Druff would suck his own dick if it were long enough"- Brandon "drexel" Gerson
"ann coulter literally has more common sense than pfa."-Sonatine
"Real grinders supports poker fraud"- Ray Davis
"DRILLED HER GOOD"- HONGKONGER
So far I have small bets on Kentucky, Nevada and LSU
So far I have small bets on Kentucky, Nevada and LSU
I think Zion Williams has his eye on the prize, the NBA, without Zion playing like a beast, duke fails to win.
Kentucky looks more and more like the winning ticket...
Also, I like Nevada because their road to the final four is probably going to be easier than the rest of the top 10 teams, so :whynot
Nevada at +2200 atm..
"Druff would suck his own dick if it were long enough"- Brandon "drexel" Gerson
"ann coulter literally has more common sense than pfa."-Sonatine
"Real grinders supports poker fraud"- Ray Davis
"DRILLED HER GOOD"- HONGKONGER
Was correct about Chicago. Hit that one on the ML.
The Charlotte under was good for 3 quarters, but the terrible first quarter (74 points) sunk it. It lost by 4.
Lost both of simp's unders. Ouch.
Ouch 1-4 today.
6-0 yesterday though so 7-4 over both days.
This isn’t a guaranteed system that wins 90% each day.
Let’s hope tomorrow gets back on track. But at the same time if you are cherry picking a few games don’t expect to win. It’s still hitting at 75% or higher.
still in the green, that's all that matters...
the great san quote of sports betting prevails here...
we move on...
I’m watching Blackhawks Ducksstill in the green, that's all that matters...
the great san quote of sports betting prevails here...
we move on...
About 8 mins left Ducks 3 Hawks 2
I got my finger hovering over Hawks ML +475 —> +500 —> +525
The moral of the story is the intensity and Blackhawks Kane. 8 minutes is an eternity. It’s balls out. The best team runs pretty true in hockey.
It was the right bet and I was considering it.
Hawks end up winning and I never pushed the button. That’s fine.
Simultaneously, it’s Lakers Pelicans .... score is 5 or less difference 4th qtr. Anthony Davis sitting on the sideline from late 3rd on.
Pelicans would win if AD would just play the final 3 minutes. NOPE. It’s not about winning. There are more important things. It’s the NBA. It’s wrestling.
Its
Always feel like an idiot when I bet it. I know better. Lakers will choke on a dick in the long run.
God, grant me the strength to stop betting the NBA
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