Portland +3 -105
Portland under 210.5
That's all. Only 5 picks.
verminaard will be proud.
Portland +3 -105
Portland under 210.5
That's all. Only 5 picks.
verminaard will be proud.
the waaaaaaaaaaaaay too early discussion of 2018...
interesting...is it me or is anybody else not really giving a fuck they have to face the AFC west next year? I mean if they get the KC game at home those are all winnable games...obviously a lot is gonna depend on how they spend that 100 mill and what they do with the draft picks, but lynch at least seems semi-competent in his first year...
You are correct that +3 to +9 is not as bad as some other non-Wong teasers, but it's a huge difference from +2.5 to +8.5. The only time +3 to +9 is appropriate is if the +3 is marginal and is +2.5 at many books anyway AND it's +3 and -120 or worse, and the minus whatever drops off in the teaser. This used to happen at Bovada when they would offer +3 -125 instead of +2.5 -110 everywhere else, and I would tease that to +9 and basically get 6.5 points for the price of 6. LOLOriginally Posted by jsearles22
I disagree with you and I will articulate why. NFL playoff games, especially conference championships and Super Bowls, are historically close. The lines on the games reflected as much. I understand Wong teasers and will expound. Yesterday I was leaning towards Phi +3 but I didnt love it. Liked it, probably a small bet, but didnt love it. Now +9 is completely different. I loved the idea of getting 9 points in this spot. So what did I have to sacrifice to get that? I did a teaser and pushed the total down to 33. In my mind it was extremely unlikely that it wouldnt go over 33. Possible obviously but unlikely. So I traded the small chance it goes under 33 for the opportunity to get 9 points instead of 3.
The counter argument is why not just parlay and get 2.5X if I win (which I would have). But in order to do that I would have to take +3, which I didnt love and couple that with o39 which I also didnt love. I was willing to trade the 6 extra points (which again is HUGE in NFL playoff games) and shoot for a lower side over
Summary- I was going to take Phi +3 -110. To me taking PHI +9 and o33 -110 was actually the better bet. +3 to +9 is almost a wong type teaser (crossing the 3 from push to win and also crossing the 7 line). I bet 2 units for me instead of the 1 I typically bet. So hitting both gave me almost the same payout as a parlay but I felt like I was much more likely to win. Sure I risked one extra unit but the +9 and o33 felt right
Anyway back to this situation. Your big problem was having to tease the total 6 points, which is a disaster. So you were combining a teased total (horrible) and a teased solid +3 (bad but not horrible).
Had you teased two +3 games, that would be a bit more reasonable, but still very -EV.
Books make a ton of money from people who rationalize that they love the line if they could just get an extra 6 points, and those people ignore how much they're giving up by turning a parlay into essentially a 1-bet payout.
In the Atlanta game, the Jazz took 5:12 (!!) to score their first point, but are only down by 1 after about 7 minutes of play.
Score is 8-7.
The sad thing was that I almost took THAT under, but part of me didn't like it, so I skipped it. Sharps liked the under in that game.
Druff owning the thread on Teaser knowledge.
3, 4 6 & 7 are by far the most valuable numbers in football. 10, 13 and 14 are valuable but not quite as much as the single digit key numbers.
If you can cross all of them it's worth taking the pay reduction. If you can't then it better be a super duper low total where points are at a premium. If we ever had a football game with a total in the 20's I'd tease both sides.
Houston is having a hard time scoring as expected. But who knew Miami would explode for 26 points in less than 8 min?
Ugh.
Still early though.
Memphis off to another bad start. I don't know why I ever back them. If I saw my record picking them, I would probably never do it again.
I don't either especially when at the start of the NBA season u said how much Memphis sux?
I go to u for my NBA. Im boycotting Memphis picks from here on out
I'm also boycotting Memphis picks.
3 of my other 4 are solid gold so far, and the last one (Portland +3) is kind of a toss up.
Memphis a disaster as usual.
Mad at myself.
2 blowout winners in the books
Memphis within 1!
Other 2 picks leading
No idea how I did it but I accidentally did a 5 teams parlay. 20 to win 500. Glad it was only 20 or I would nervous now. Will be 100 going to free roll if it hits!
Fox already lost.
Markkanen points and rebounds probably a loser thanks to a combination of an inexplicable 14 rebound game and 2/3 free throws being made after an absolutely moronic foul on an already contested 3 point shot at the buzzer to send it to overtime.
Oh well, don't want to start bitching about every play that doesn't go my way, just didn't have it today. Hopefully we can salvage a 1-2 day.
Thanks to Druff for the winners so far. Let's go Portland!
Edit: And Markkanen immediately gets a rebound and a dunk in OT to kill it.
Edit2: And now fucking double OT. Jesus.
Last edited by KidPresentable; 01-22-2018 at 07:47 PM.
Memphis takes it
Coming down the home stretch, both Portland picks gonna be close, though both are favored to win at the moment.
Go Portland, but not too much so we don't have too high of a score.
This is some ending.
Critical video ruling right now in a 100-99 Denver game. Sadly overturned and Denver has the ball with 9.2 seconds. This makes it way more likely that Denver either wins by 3 (so I go 4-0-1) or it goes into OT (I go either 4-1, 3-1-1, or 3-2).
Portland got TWO critical offensive rebounds, and then blew it by Lillard losing the ball.
102-99 Denver, Portland ball. Awful given that it was 95-90 Portland a short time ago.
Definitely don't want a game-tying 3, though if Denver could win on the last possession that could help me.
Edit: Now 102-101 after a strange 2-point attempt for Portland, Denver ball.
Charham still takes the parlay, though only a 4-teamer instead of a 5-teamer.
104-101 final, Denver wins. End up with just my third tie in well over 225 picks.
4-0-1 day.
131-93-3 record.
I'm now 18-6-1 in my last 25.
Bah. A 1-2 night brings us to 14-5.Fox already lost.
Markkanen points and rebounds probably a loser thanks to a combination of an inexplicable 14 rebound game and 2/3 free throws being made after an absolutely moronic foul on an already contested 3 point shot at the buzzer to send it to overtime.
Oh well, don't want to start bitching about every play that doesn't go my way, just didn't have it today. Hopefully we can salvage a 1-2 day.
Thanks to Druff for the winners so far. Let's go Portland!
Edit: And Markkanen immediately gets a rebound and a dunk in OT to kill it.
Edit2: And now fucking double OT. Jesus.
Tailed you on all your plays, Druff. Thanks for making it a profitable day.
I chose to make a full moneyline bet on Atlanta +131, and no spread bet. It won easily.
I chose to make a half moneyline +140/half spread bet on Memphis. It had to come back and looked bad for much of the game, but it won outright.
I chose to make a full spread bet on Portland, and no moneyline.
All three were roughly the same spread, but Portland I had the least faith in winning outright, whereas Atlanta I had the most faith.
I ended up being 100% correct on those assessments.
Great day. So close to sweep. And yes the tie in the parlay meant I hit for 200, little bonus money. Thought it might push the thing with that tie.
How did it go down to 200 from 500?Great day. So close to sweep. And yes the tie in the parlay meant I hit for 200, little bonus money. Thought it might push the thing with that tie.
Sounds like they ripped you off.
You sure it wasn't 400 to 200?
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