*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[snake_in_the_ass]

Good game. Cashed Jags ticket. Now I am laying a huge one on Vikings -160.

[Sanlmar]

Hoped you hedged bro

I took a little

Worst part is I promised someone I would watch that Tom Brady Facebook movie if the Pats won

The loss can’t be fully calculated yet

[jsearles22]

Last minute bets on this NFC game?

[Sanlmar]

Last minute bets on this NFC game?

I took Vikings -3.

Just a degenerate play.

[jsearles22]

Last minute bets on this NFC game?

I took Vikings -3.

Just a degenerate play.

I ended up just doing a big teaser, Phi +9 and over 33

[BeerAndPoker]

Nick Foles trying to keep this job for next year or get traded and earn a big payday.

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

Nick Foles trying to keep this job for next year or get traded and earn a big payday.

hellllllllllllllllllllllllo Washington...

[Sanlmar]

Nick Foles trying to keep this job for next year or get traded and earn a big payday.

hellllllllllllllllllllllllo Washington...

Foles giving thanks to god. He can thank him personally at the Super Bowl.

He wears number 12

[Daly]

Looks like when the smoke clears it will be 5.5-6 and 47.5-48

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

Looks like when the smoke clears it will be 5.5-6 and 47.5-48

and interesting tidbit on that...if wentz was the starter the westgate says it would be a pick 'em...jesus foles is worth 6 points to the pats...

[Dan Druff]

I know lots of people who took teasers on these recent games.

As long as you understand how intensely -EV typical teasers are, then it's your money and I'm not going to question it.

If you're betting to win money, though, you really should avoid them for the most part.

If you really want to be a degen with 2 or more games, at least take a parlay so you'll hit a nice score when you get lucky and win. A typical teaser gives you the worst of both worlds of a huge house edge and no opportunity to win big.

Regarding teasers, use the following rules and you will be fine:

- Don't tease totals
- Only tease if the original line is -8.5, -8, -7.5, +1.5, +2, or +2.5
- Even when the original line is one of those listed above, try to stick with only teasing low and medium-total games (the lower, the better)
- Avoid teasing teams which have a problem with playing inconsistently and getting blown out fairly often

[jsearles22]

I know lots of people who took teasers on these recent games.

As long as you understand how intensely -EV typical teasers are, then it's your money and I'm not going to question it.

If you're betting to win money, though, you really should avoid them for the most part.

If you really want to be a degen with 2 or more games, at least take a parlay so you'll hit a nice score when you get lucky and win. A typical teaser gives you the worst of both worlds of a huge house edge and no opportunity to win big.

Regarding teasers, use the following rules and you will be fine:

- Don't tease totals
- Only tease if the original line is -8.5, -8, -7.5, +1.5, +2, or +2.5
- Even when the original line is one of those listed above, try to stick with only teasing low and medium-total games (the lower, the better)
- Avoid teasing teams which have a problem with playing inconsistently and getting blown out fairly often

I disagree with you and I will articulate why. NFL playoff games, especially conference championships and Super Bowls, are historically close. The lines on the games reflected as much. I understand Wong teasers and will expound. Yesterday I was leaning towards Phi +3 but I didnt love it. Liked it, probably a small bet, but didnt love it. Now +9 is completely different. I loved the idea of getting 9 points in this spot. So what did I have to sacrifice to get that? I did a teaser and pushed the total down to 33. In my mind it was extremely unlikely that it wouldnt go over 33. Possible obviously but unlikely. So I traded the small chance it goes under 33 for the opportunity to get 9 points instead of 3.

The counter argument is why not just parlay and get 2.5X if I win (which I would have). But in order to do that I would have to take +3, which I didnt love and couple that with o39 which I also didnt love. I was willing to trade the 6 extra points (which again is HUGE in NFL playoff games) and shoot for a lower side over

Summary- I was going to take Phi +3 -110. To me taking PHI +9 and o33 -110 was actually the better bet. +3 to +9 is almost a wong type teaser (crossing the 3 from push to win and also crossing the 7 line). I bet 2 units for me instead of the 1 I typically bet. So hitting both gave me almost the same payout as a parlay but I felt like I was much more likely to win. Sure I risked one extra unit but the +9 and o33 felt right

[ErickAA]

I know lots of people who took teasers on these recent games.

As long as you understand how intensely -EV typical teasers are, then it's your money and I'm not going to question it.

If you're betting to win money, though, you really should avoid them for the most part.

If you really want to be a degen with 2 or more games, at least take a parlay so you'll hit a nice score when you get lucky and win. A typical teaser gives you the worst of both worlds of a huge house edge and no opportunity to win big.

Regarding teasers, use the following rules and you will be fine:

- Don't tease totals
- Only tease if the original line is -8.5, -8, -7.5, +1.5, +2, or +2.5
- Even when the original line is one of those listed above, try to stick with only teasing low and medium-total games (the lower, the better)
- Avoid teasing teams which have a problem with playing inconsistently and getting blown out fairly often

I disagree with you and I will articulate why. NFL playoff games, especially conference championships and Super Bowls, are historically close. The lines on the games reflected as much. I understand Wong teasers and will expound. Yesterday I was leaning towards Phi +3 but I didnt love it. Liked it, probably a small bet, but didnt love it. Now +9 is completely different. I loved the idea of getting 9 points in this spot. So what did I have to sacrifice to get that? I did a teaser and pushed the total down to 33. In my mind it was extremely unlikely that it wouldnt go over 33. Possible obviously but unlikely. So I traded the small chance it goes under 33 for the opportunity to get 9 points instead of 3.

The counter argument is why not just parlay and get 2.5X if I win (which I would have). But in order to do that I would have to take +3, which I didnt love and couple that with o39 which I also didnt love. I was willing to trade the 6 extra points (which again is HUGE in NFL playoff games) and shoot for a lower side over

Summary- I was going to take Phi +3 -110. To me taking PHI +9 and o33 -110 was actually the better bet. +3 to +9 is almost a wong type teaser (crossing the 3 from push to win and also crossing the 7 line). I bet 2 units for me instead of the 1 I typically bet. So hitting both gave me almost the same payout as a parlay but I felt like I was much more likely to win. Sure I risked one extra unit but the +9 and o33 felt right

Just because "to you" it was the better bet, doesn't mean it actually was. Your argument is about as mathematically sound as someone trying to argue why some weird variation of blackjack you see in all the casinos is higher EV than just playing normal blackjack. Druff is making a general argument based on actual mathematics and statistics, and your counterargument is a N=1 empirical argument based on your feelings. I hope you can understand and appreciate the difference.

I have teased totals myself on occasion, but I did it without any delusion this is ever better than just making a standard bet at -105. The only way this could possibly be true is if you had some sort of model that indicated moving the lines gave you enough higher EV to overcome the increased juice you were paying.

[jsearles22]

I disagree with you and I will articulate why. NFL playoff games, especially conference championships and Super Bowls, are historically close. The lines on the games reflected as much. I understand Wong teasers and will expound. Yesterday I was leaning towards Phi +3 but I didnt love it. Liked it, probably a small bet, but didnt love it. Now +9 is completely different. I loved the idea of getting 9 points in this spot. So what did I have to sacrifice to get that? I did a teaser and pushed the total down to 33. In my mind it was extremely unlikely that it wouldnt go over 33. Possible obviously but unlikely. So I traded the small chance it goes under 33 for the opportunity to get 9 points instead of 3.

The counter argument is why not just parlay and get 2.5X if I win (which I would have). But in order to do that I would have to take +3, which I didnt love and couple that with o39 which I also didnt love. I was willing to trade the 6 extra points (which again is HUGE in NFL playoff games) and shoot for a lower side over

Summary- I was going to take Phi +3 -110. To me taking PHI +9 and o33 -110 was actually the better bet. +3 to +9 is almost a wong type teaser (crossing the 3 from push to win and also crossing the 7 line). I bet 2 units for me instead of the 1 I typically bet. So hitting both gave me almost the same payout as a parlay but I felt like I was much more likely to win. Sure I risked one extra unit but the +9 and o33 felt right

Just because "to you" it was the better bet, doesn't mean it actually was. Your argument is about as mathematically sound as someone trying to argue why some weird variation of blackjack you see in all the casinos is higher EV than just playing normal blackjack. Druff is making a general argument based on actual mathematics and statistics, and your counterargument is a N=1 empirical argument based on your feelings. I hope you can understand and appreciate the difference.

I have teased totals myself on occasion, but I did it without any delusion this is ever better than just making a standard bet at -105. The only way this could possibly be true is if you had some sort of model that indicated moving the lines gave you enough higher EV to overcome the increased juice you were paying.

With all due respect, you're the worst sports bettor Ive ever saw. You say so much yourself. Why do you think I would listen to anything you have to say?

Furthermore, everyone coming in this thread talking about "this is -ev" or "that is -ev"; no SHIT its called sports betting. You arent beating it long term. If you think you are in it for long term money, you're a moron. So spare me that line of discussion as well. Its silly

Something like 38% of NFL games end up 1-7 point spreads. Adding 6 points to the line is obviously a huge deal. I honestly didnt know the math so I looked it up. In order for a two team teaser to be a break even bet at -110 you are essentially laying -235 on both lines. Now in my case would I have bet Philly +9 -235? Probably not. Would I have bet o33 -235? Possibly. But instead I parlayed both of those at -235 each and got a two teamer that pays -110. Understand? And Im fine with that. Its a spot I liked. I was right BTW

I have no grand illusion that I am solving sports betting. When discussing sports betting and your only line is "thats -ev" then the conversation is over. Its all -ev people!

[KidPresentable]

L. Markkanen points under 16.5 -115 (Bovada/5dimes)
L. Markkanen points + rebounds under 24.5 -120 (Bovada)
D. Fox under 12.5 points -110 (Bovada)

I can't really advise playing these anymore given the prices, but Whiteside unders if you feel like laying some serious juice.

[Daly]

I already have a bet in mind for the super bowl. By the numbers it's a solid bet. It's not some crazy exotic and everyone will be able to be it at 90% of books.

Rumor has it there is going to be a Radio show next week with some of the heaviest hitters in the PFA sports wagering universe.

If it happens I'll be releasing the play.

[Dan Druff]

Atlanta +2.5 (or moneyline)

That's the first pick.

Still analyzing the 5pm PST and later games (of which there are many)

[Tellafriend]

I already have a bet in mind for the super bowl. By the numbers it's a solid bet. It's not some crazy exotic and everyone will be able to be it at 90% of books.

Rumor has it there is going to be a Radio show next week with some of the heaviest hitters in the PFA sports wagering universe.

If it happens I'll be releasing the play.

If we get some sports Radio, how about a reasonable starting time?

[Dan Druff]

More:

Memphis +3.5 (moneyline of +140 ok)
Houston under 212.5

Still may post more

[Daly]

There better be a "Dilly Dilly" prop this year.