As good as the Porzingis bet has looked, the Gasol bet is off to a horrendous start as he has 5 and 4 halfway through the first. Smith still a toss up (5 points at half) and doesn’t help that he’s 0/3 on free throws.
Edit: and as soon as I hit enter Gasol hits another 3. Let’s hope for 2-1.
A low-scoring 4th and a last-minute junk 3 saved my Memphis bets, and turned an 0-4 day into a 2-2 day.
I'll take it.
Though I did bet half moneyline on Memphis, so it's actually a 1.5-2.5 day for me personally.
I'll still take it, given how everything was looking.
102-72-2 is now my record.
what a fucking ending! TYREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEKE!!!!!Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Somehow went an undeserved 2-1 and almost luck boxed into a 3-0 day. I'll gladly take the suckout with Dennis Smith since I still won the Porzingis under with the Knicks going to OT.
11-2 +8.85
Last edited by KidPresentable; 01-06-2018 at 12:49 AM. Reason: MATH
Rambling.
Odd times. Simplify it.
Falcons come in not really living up to their potential all year. With the exception of Matty making a bone headed play or two, this is a top 3 fantasy draft pick team at QB, RB, WR and WR2. Defense has been a bright spot. Offense sputtering under Sark.
Rams massively impressive and overachieved vs expectation in every aspect this year. Great young coach, maybe the best back in the league, good defense and the castoff WR from Buffalo doing well.
All things considered I cannot figure out why Atlanta is not favored by 1 or 2 in this spot-at least a pick em. Given their "bad" season they have only lost by 10 or more twice. They have played it close with things falling for or against them in the end. Not to mention the Rams are without a kicker.
I have put blinders on, ignored the media and continually funneled money into Atlanta +250 for the majority of the week. To my suprise it has moved to +210 and +5.5 today.
The Rams are a scary team to bet against, but do you find yourself saying "Man, I can't believe I bet Matt Ryan and the crappy Falcons vs the Rams!" or "I can't believe I bet Jared Goff, an undisciplined defense and a team with no kicker laying points in a playoff game!"?
Today all I have read about is this eventual Rams blowout and an easy meeting vs Foles in Philly. Meanwhile that line is ticking down. Tick. Tick. Tick.
It's hilarious that we as a society think everyone can be a dr, a lawyer, an engineer. Some people are just fucking stupid. Why can't we just accept that?
kelce under/under imo
Unless your betting these -150 props for fun, laying -150 or over on most props ( especially overs) is not a good play usually. Just to break even this has to win 60 % of the time.
I guess there are spots to lay -150 but they are few and far between.
INT and TD etc different story. But for receptions and yds and completions when you start laying -140 and up it becomes more difficult to eek out any profits.
Pretty much all sports betting is for fun. Anyone who thinks they are finding long term +ev spots are typically wrongUnless your betting these -150 props for fun, laying -150 or over on most props ( especially overs) is not a good play usually. Just to break even this has to win 60 % of the time.
I guess there are spots to lay -150 but they are few and far between.
INT and TD etc different story. But for receptions and yds and completions when you start laying -140 and up it becomes more difficult to eek out any profits.
But 100% these $20-50 props are for entertainment value mostly
It's hilarious that we as a society think everyone can be a dr, a lawyer, an engineer. Some people are just fucking stupid. Why can't we just accept that?
Well if they are for fun then have at it.Pretty much all sports betting is for fun. Anyone who thinks they are finding long term +ev spots are typically wrong
But 100% these $20-50 props are for entertainment value mostly
Just trying to lend a hand to you and some others on this board betting props as I have bet on thousands of props the past couple of years with tremendous , tremendous success...
I would agree that people trying to find +ev spots long term are typically wrong but let's be honest here, 99.9 % of sports bettors aren't even trying to find an edge and I would guess the 1 % who do try to find an edge , a high % of them cannot be honest with themselves and correct flaws in their methods or ways of thinking. I am not perfect by any means but the best trait I have when betting sports these days is trying to find flaws in why I am losing in spots. And one of the first things I learned betting high volume props is when you creep into that -140 plus thresh hold more often than not you are going into a black hole
best of luck
Last minute leans on B. Griffin over 13.5 rebounds + assists, D. Jordan over 15 rebounds, L. Williams over 23.5 points.
Those totals pretty much mirror their season averages. Warriors have not been great against big men and their front court is thin with Durant and West out (and unsure about Casspi). Also, without any competent guards aside from Lou Williams, Griffin figures to run the offense a decent amount. I hesitate to make these "official" as the Warriors just own the Clips and neither Jordan or Griffin have historically performed particularly well against the Dubs.
Last edited by KidPresentable; 01-06-2018 at 12:42 PM. Reason: Casspi not Casio.
I guess fortuitous for me that I didn't end up making these plays as Griffin goes out in the 1st quarter with a concussion. Not to mention West and Casspi both end up playing.
For the rest of the day:
J. Wall under 21.5 points -115
T. Gibson under 12.5 points -115
Keep the prop bets coming Daly et al.
Not easy to get on them in England but some of them get through.
I back a lot of horses and rarely think to post them on here.
So I respect the Druff’s and others who not only post but keep a public record.
Good stuff.
cmoney :It would be nice if Mexico could simply get human feces out of its drinking water
Nobody will have time to bet this, most likely, but just threw a super last minute bet on Brooklyn.
Line on Bovada is +3.5 -115, moneyline +140 is also good (that's what I bet)
Some books have 2.5 now though.
Anyway just posting it here for record, I don't expect you guys will have time. More picks coming shortly.
Horford is out btw.
Houston under 211.5
Cleveland under 221.5
Also:
Milwaukee Under 214
What an absolutely fucking brutal game as a Chiefs fan. 5 straight home playoff losses turns into 6. Kelce hurt within a few yards of hitting my prop bets. Butker breaks the Chiefs record for FG in a season even though he didnt start until week 4. He misses. The bullshit forward progress turnover that wasnt. Andy Reid should be fired. Hes a great coach in the regular season but has proven for 30+ years he cant win in the playoffs. We are ditching Alex Smith and going with Mahomes. Might as well ship out Reid too. They wont, but I dont see why not.
The only silver lining as a Chiefs fan is I knew this was going to happen. I bet Titans +7.5 earlier in the week and hoped KC would win small. About 5 mins before the game I had another feeling and fired again on the Tenn ML +350. I would have been fine losing those bets. I guess I can wipe up my tears with the couple hundo tonight.........
It's hilarious that we as a society think everyone can be a dr, a lawyer, an engineer. Some people are just fucking stupid. Why can't we just accept that?
Love it when my last-minute-posted pick wins, but probably no one could bet it, and I bet the moneyline because I was too confident, and then the moneyline loses but the spread covers, so I score a win for my PFA record but lose the money and no one else wins.
Anyway, as usual, I'm going to lose the Cleveland pick. Can't win involving that team. They're my reverse Knicks, where I always win.
Houston under started out horribly, but it has improved due to a semi-low 2nd and low 3rd (so far).
Milwaukee kind of a toss-up right now.
Love it when my last-minute-posted pick wins, but probably no one could bet it, and I bet the moneyline because I was too confident, and then the moneyline loses but the spread covers, so I score a win for my PFA record but lose the money and no one else wins.
Why would it "count for your pfa record" but you admittedly didnt even bet it? Whats the point in funny record keeping?
Maybe I'll start posting fake picks that I dont even have money on
It's hilarious that we as a society think everyone can be a dr, a lawyer, an engineer. Some people are just fucking stupid. Why can't we just accept that?
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