I steeped your Kelcey over pick. Had to pay -115 though. It is fine. Feels sacrilegious to not have action on the first game of the year. Will probably take KC +9 too, although haven't decided yet.
I steeped your Kelcey over pick. Had to pay -115 though. It is fine. Feels sacrilegious to not have action on the first game of the year. Will probably take KC +9 too, although haven't decided yet.
Had my first KHL experience this weekend. Not bad.
Some of these have moved, but I felt like sharing one time.
Tyreek Hill over 4.5 Rec - W
Chris Hogan over 3.5 receptions -L
Chris Hogan over 50.5 receiving - L
Alex Smith over 31.5 passing attempts -W
Alex Smith over 21.5 completion - W
Alex Smith over 238.5 - W
Chris Conley under 3.5 receptions - W
Kareem Hunt under 62.5 rushing - Big Big L
Brandin Cooks under 84.5 receiving - L
Mike Gilleslee under 50.5 rushing - W
Rex Burkhead over 26.5 rush & Rec - L
Rob Gronkowski under 5.5 receptions - W
Last edited by Daly; 09-08-2017 at 04:07 AM.
Over Gilleslee is my only regret tonight...Originally Posted by Daly
"I GOT NO TOE"
#FreeFluffler #FreeThisGuyIsCreepy #lockupGarrett
updated line compare before t he game...Props based on Historical performance and FFBL data (projects both public & private). I started doing this last yr after working with one of the best college prop guys out there (he’s on this site) and learning what he was doing. I’ll be posting these after I take them and share with some others. Last yr my sample size was 132 plays over 10 weeks (including playoffs) for a win ratio of 58.5% (hoping not variance but probably). I use historical stats + FFBL data to determine if something is playable. The results can be a bit odd sometimes as it will usually weigh heavily on overs or unders depending on the opponent’s historical defense. There are plenty of plays I would like to be on the under or over for but because sharps already knocked the line down so much before I get to it they become a NoPlay.
Plays are weighted as Small (1unit) /Med (2 unit) /Large (3 unit) and I am allocating 150units towards this (with no BR management obv) and will keep track of my record on here as best as I can. Anything I don’t post won’t count towards my record and if I end up losing at a horrible rate I’ll just stop. I also really try to avoid anything over -150 as much as possible and a price over that amount is usually downgraded (ex: Large to a Mid-Large or Mid). Goodluck and flame away.
6 -plays that if I had an SB or Bodog account I would have played the unders but sharps destroyed them before my book posted them.
3 -No plays given the lines were IMO perfect.
9- overs cuz I’m a fish…. (1 would have been an under but early money made it an over, can you guess?)
2- INT props, I love the brady one but the price is being destroyed and the Alex Smith one is a small because of the FFBL stats (historical data said either NP or No INT)
22units to win 17:
PS: If Daly or other prop players post their plays I’m almost sure they’ll be on the opposite of a lot (Some?) of these, but I believe that has to with me factoring in the FFBL projections on top of historical data. Again do not follow unless you agree, could end up as a 80% loser…..
"I GOT NO TOE"
#FreeFluffler #FreeThisGuyIsCreepy #lockupGarrett
He could have 200 yards tonight as could cooks but there are a lot of mouths to feedOver Gilleslee is my only regret tonight...
Welcome to the NFL Kareem Hunt
THERE GOES MY ALEX SMITH INT... FML
"I GOT NO TOE"
#FreeFluffler #FreeThisGuyIsCreepy #lockupGarrett
I got burned twice this year by the guy right in front of me in fantasy drafts who took Tyrek Hill when I was going to and I get it rubbed it in my face some more with these long TDs.
I guess I need to give a shout out to auto draft for drafting Hunt for me in Vegas1369's league. Sorry Brandon
I spoke too soon on this kid he went hard after that fumble.
Great Start...
"I GOT NO TOE"
#FreeFluffler #FreeThisGuyIsCreepy #lockupGarrett
I had a Miami O9 wins future that is going to be voided because they are not going to play this week because of the hurricane and they have no plans to make it up.
I have had this happen twice before (including LSU U10 wins last year) and both times I would have won the bet with the team playing only 11 games. So if things hold true to form Miami will go 10-1 or better this year.
7-5. Thankfully most of my guys couldn't get Hogan so it ended up being a better night for them.
I was wrong about hunt and how they would use him.
Let's hope they keep posting big numbers for cooks and little ones for hogan. Same targets show up next week and the results will be much different.
Pats backfield will be a $$ maker this year. Too few balls to go around too many players.
Had Toledo last year. Worst part was they didn't grade it until the end of the season even though it was a first week push.
I was surprised the under on Gilislee panned out. He had, if I remember correctly, just under 35 yards in the first quarter.7-5. Thankfully most of my guys couldn't get Hogan so it ended up being a better night for them.
I was wrong about hunt and how they would use him.
Let's hope they keep posting big numbers for cooks and little ones for hogan. Same targets show up next week and the results will be much different.
Pats backfield will be a $$ maker this year. Too few balls to go around too many players.
You probably felt fairly good in the Hunt under when he fumbled & lost his very first NFL touch. Rookies usually have a seat after that.
(•_•) ..
∫\ \___( •_•)
_∫∫ _∫∫ɯ \ \
S Alabama can't get a first down. I don't hunk Okie St is going to score all 68 by thenselves. This could be a problem.
yeah was thinking the same thing...was half paying attention to the game looked up and it was halftime...ive seen weirder shit in college football before...
Not calling lock but 68.5 points in the Nevada Toledo game might be low.
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