*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[snake_in_the_ass]

Made my first baseball bet tonight that I picked. Chi v nyy over 7.5. 5-0 1st inning. Wish I weren't so feckless. Would be appreciative of any ideas for tomorrow. Any sport will do.

8-0 Bust your cherry

Play of the day ... fade Cubs and ride Yankees all day. Last I looked Cubs 1st inning ERA was 9.5 Gotta be worse now.

Accepted:
5/6/2017 3:22:24 PM
Description:
Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 929 New York Yankees +116 for Game

Edit:
2017 Cubs are giving up the most runs in the 1st inning of any team in the last decade. hard to find stats past 2007

Maybe the worst ever.

So much value fading the Cubs fanboys and god I love the Yankees. Easily the most money off one team I've made this year. Some dumb luck, but I'll stick it out there for them.

Don't jinx the Yankees. I am going to need them to win the world series to make up for my losses:

MOBILE
03/08/2017
04:19 PM
Odds to win 2017 - World Series
TNT [14019] New York Yankees +3000

[snake_in_the_ass]

Padres +1.5 +120
Padres +213
Padres -1.5 +430

Not a wise move with a bad offensive team against Kershaw.

In fact, Kershaw thrives in these situations. He absolutely kills teams with weak offenses. I know you were attracted to the Dodgers facing a left-hander, but this was the wrong day to do it.

The Padres +1.5 +120 was the best of the three.

I don't mind losing those crazy -1.5 bets. I can hit 20-30% of those and still make a nice profit. I made a killing playing those last year but not running good this year with them. Dodgers looking good with that new kid. I think they should keep Toles, Puig, and the new guy in the outfield and dump Joc.

[Sanlmar]

Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 970 Minnesota Twins +162 for Game

Twins 3-0 top of 1st

Money on fire

Waited too long. Price falling fast. Still did it for the pure entertainment & social justice
Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 979 New York Yankees +115 for Game W

Degen confessions

5/7/2017 2:16:14 PM
Description:
BOSTON RED SOX at MINNESOTA TWINS Run Line TWINS +2.5 -135 L

[snake_in_the_ass]

Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 970 Minnesota Twins +162 for Game

Twins 3-0 top of 1st

Money on fire

Waited too long. Price falling fast. Still did it for the pure entertainment & social justice
Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 979 New York Yankees +115 for Game

Degen confessions

5/7/2017 2:16:14 PM
Description:
BOSTON RED SOX at MINNESOTA TWINS Run Line TWINS +2.5 -135

Horrible ending to that game. I would love to see the Yankees crush the Cubs tonight.

[Dan Druff]

I'm surprised everyone in here is taking a X book vs Y book approach.

A real sharp would take a book with .40 lines, any out is a good out so long as it pays. Do homework, get to a lean, shop for the best number, bet it and Cash. Don't worry about how much the book is making and from whom, so long as they aren't doing crazy promotions that can't win (indicative of a scam).

I have outs a sharp books where I generally bet overs and favorites, I have outs at square books where I tend to bet dogs and unders.

Can you explain what you mean here?

I fully understand the value of having both a sharp book and a square book. That 100% makes sense.

But how could you ever justify 40c lines on baseball (aside from massive +EV prop bets)?

I can't imagine there is a single baseball handicapper in the world who could show a profit on a book with 40c lines, unless that book was routinely "off" with its lines by a wide margin (which is uncommon these days).

Last year, I occasionally found a better price on Bovada with its 20c lines than on my other book with 10c lines, simply because Bovada was a square book. But that was rare, to the point where having Bovada as a secondary book for baseball side bets was fairly useless. (The NBA was a different story...)

[simpdog]

Spurs +5
Spurs moneyline

[Daly]

I'm surprised everyone in here is taking a X book vs Y book approach.

A real sharp would take a book with .40 lines, any out is a good out so long as it pays. Do homework, get to a lean, shop for the best number, bet it and Cash. Don't worry about how much the book is making and from whom, so long as they aren't doing crazy promotions that can't win (indicative of a scam).

I have outs a sharp books where I generally bet overs and favorites, I have outs at square books where I tend to bet dogs and unders.

Can you explain what you mean here?

I fully understand the value of having both a sharp book and a square book. That 100% makes sense.

But how could you ever justify 40c lines on baseball (aside from massive +EV prop bets)?

I can't imagine there is a single baseball handicapper in the world who could show a profit on a book with 40c lines, unless that book was routinely "off" with its lines by a wide margin (which is uncommon these days).

Last year, I occasionally found a better price on Bovada with its 20c lines than on my other book with 10c lines, simply because Bovada was a square book. But that was rare, to the point where having Bovada as a secondary book for baseball side bets was fairly useless. (The NBA was a different story...)

In a vacuum where there is only one book in the world and it offers .40 lines only it's impossible to make $$. That's not what's happening in the real world.

Sox are playing Yankees. I like Sox.

.10 book -105 Sox -105 Yankees. I bet Sox 105/100.

.40 book. This book has huge action booked the on the Yankees. -150 Yankees, +110 Sox. I bet Sox 100/110.

Where would you rather book your action?

Obviously this is a massive hypothetical and more often than not you will have the better line at a .10 shop. This is not always the case though. How many times last year did you text me looking for a line and I had a book that had a better line than was available to you. They weren't always at a .10 shop.

[Sanlmar]

Accepted:
5/7/2017 11:32:22 PM
Description:
NEW YORK YANKEES at CHICAGO CUBS [BATTER PROPS] Moneyline YANKEES +180 W

Took it a few batters ago

Here comes the Judge

Regardless how this turns out - Cubs bullpen cooked - long late flight to Colorado

Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 906 Colorado Rockies +128 for Game

[BeerAndPoker]

Just wow at this Sunday Night Baseball game

[Sanlmar]

Yankees coming through huge for me past couple days.

The line for Cubs opponent Colorado dropped 10 points already.
+128 ---> +119

Travel, position players cooked, bullpen toast

Arrieta been such shit I woulda taken Rockies anyway.
Gift

[Sanlmar]

You want to be a part of it.... Are the Yankees winning - after just playing 18?

Snake, every night the Dodgers go off -200 and they're a .500 team.
Can you remember the last winning team they played?

Who has an RPI in the bottom half of league?

You know the answers to all of the above

Gardy goes Yardy. You'll know all of John Sterling's calls by the All Star break.

20c lines... what's holding Druff back from thread is knowing his son likes to eat. You're welcome to pahticipate nevertheless

[Tellafriend]

Where are we at today folks? Basketball anyone?

[Sanlmar]

Yankees have been so good to me I keep coming back. I know the story is out there now so maybe the early undiscovered value is diminishing

So thinking about Yankees Reds F5 over 5 +110

Sabathia thumbs down,  Yankees offense ++

Adleman thumbs down  Reds Offense +

Bullpens are good so not full game.

5 is a lot - but teams still not having a book on the Bombers young kids and how to pitch to them and a failure to execute even if they do have an idea.

Sabathia is trick or treat

Nothing else jumps out at me. Open to ideas. Definitely gonna be sitting with an open live betting window on Cubs Rockies.

Taking the under 10.5 when live opens up for the 4th inning. Mercifully I never got it in.

[Sanlmar]

Yankees coming through huge for me past couple days.

The line for Cubs opponent Colorado dropped 10 points already.
+128 ---> +119

Travel, position players cooked, bullpen toast

Arrieta been such shit I woulda taken Rockies anyway.
Gift

TBH I spaced on the news this would be a double header. Rockies 6 Cubs 1

I am walking away in disgust and tilt

Work getting in the way of making money. Kill me

[snake_in_the_ass]

Yankees coming through huge for me past couple days.

The line for Cubs opponent Colorado dropped 10 points already.
+128 ---> +119

Travel, position players cooked, bullpen toast

Arrieta been such shit I woulda taken Rockies anyway.
Gift

TBH I spaced on the news this would be a double header. Rockies 6 Cubs 1

I am walking away in disgust and tilt

Work getting in the way of making money. Kill me

MLB
Game 1
[982] Colorado Rockies +131 ( J Arrieta - R/ ACTION )

Notice I didn't care who the Rockies put on the mound. Arrieta is returning to his old self. Got greedy and didn't sign a 4 yr lucrative deal. He is trash.

[snake_in_the_ass]

So thinking about Yankees Reds F5 over 5 +110

Sabathia thumbs down.

Hopefully CC cleaned out the mini-bar in his hotel room last night.

[Sanlmar]

I had that Cubs Rockies bet and they cancelled it out on the rain out and nothing was up last night .

Hope you hit it hard. I was toying with the thought of 2 units.

You taking the Yankees Reds idea?

[snake_in_the_ass]

I had that Cubs Rockies bet and they cancelled it out on the rain out and nothing was up last night .

Hope you hit it hard. I was toying with the thought of 2 units.

You taking the Yankees Reds idea?

Not touching the Yankees game. I don't know if drunk CC or sober CC is going to show up tonight. Going to take my Rockies profit and bet them again in the night game.

[snake_in_the_ass]

I had that Cubs Rockies bet and they cancelled it out on the rain out and nothing was up last night .

Hope you hit it hard. I was toying with the thought of 2 units.

You taking the Yankees Reds idea?

Not touching the Yankees game. I don't know if drunk CC or sober CC is going to show up tonight. Going to take my Rockies profit and bet them again in the night game.

Rockies resting some players for game #2. Blackmon and Cargo so far.

[Sanlmar]

Not touching the Yankees game. I don't know if drunk CC or sober CC is going to show up tonight. Going to take my Rockies profit and bet them again in the night game.

Rockies resting some players for game #2. Blackmon and Cargo so far.

Lol, CC's minibar is empty.

I didn't post it but it worked out nice for me.

Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 957 Pittsburgh Pirates +174 for Game

Nova v Urias

I continue to not buy in to the Urias story. Cute story of a part time prospect who walks a lot and dances between the raindrops.

Nova is a man vs a boy.

Wish AGon not Bellinger was in the lineup. Even a hurt Bellinger is better than the other bum. Dodgers have a slightly better lineup but value is value.

I know you approve Snake.