*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[Sanlmar]

On a side note, Dodgers are making a mistake to bring Bellinger back to the minors this weekend.

What are they thinking?

Here is a team which needs all the offense it can get (because the starting pitching has been lousy, plus they can't hit left handers), and they're dropping their hottest hitter back down to the minors?

Why?

Unlike a pitcher, you don't need to keep a hitter down to a low number of innings played early in his career.

Bellinger has already proven all he needs in the minors. Now he's crushing the ball in majors. Great! This is exactly what they wanted, and yet they are likely sending him back down to rot in OKC.

Right now they have Adrian Gonzalez who has "tennis elbow" and can't hit for any power whatsoever. While Gonzalez hates going on the DL (and has done a great job in his career avoiding it), it's time. Put him on the DL when Joc Pederson comes back in a few days, let him recover, and let Bellinger play 1B. When Gonzalez is ready, then reevaluate -- such as perhaps benching Pederson if he continues to suck.

Oh, and Chase Utley needs to retire. Was a big fan of his hustle and he was great with the Dodgers for the time they had him, but it's time to hang it up. Dude is mostly grey and is now playing like it.

Kid will be back up for good by the end of the month or the start of June. I have to assume this is a time served decision similar to what the Cubs did to Kris Bryant.

This is a small market move. Care to guess what Dodgers spend for each win?

The Cubs were in a completely different spot with Bryant. Besides, whatever Theo does is correct.

Bellinger's hot mom is gonna be pissed

[Daly]

It's not out of bounds to say in 7 years a top level player will make $50M a year. Sounds crazy to say by Harper/Trout might come close. That one extra year of control is big.

I know it seems low rent by LA but I get it. I don't think this kid is top 2% so the analogy is weak but I think it applies for guys like Bryant or what CWS is doing with Moncada.

[BlunderMaker]

Damn you Druff for talking me out of that over.

[Sanlmar]

Duly rewarded for my faith in the Dodgers offense vs the the 2017 winless bum Samardzija (5 ERA) Dodgers made him look like Greg Maddox.

I'll never learn. You only make money fading Dodgers. What was I thinking?

Yup, those zeros Utley (0-4) & AGon (0-4 2 SO). Grandal can't get a bunt down. They are incapable of moving runners over. Dodgers didn't even score an earned run.

Weak.

Urias played per plan. 5 innings. Allowed base runners each inning. The usual walks. He's always walking a precarious tightrope of disaster. Kid will be fine someday. He's only 20. He's no phenom. Sorry Druff, I am correct about this kid. This is a very very typical Urias outing.

Dodgers suck. Every Giants Dodgers game is extra innings. A battle with the frigging last place Giants. Off to play the tough Padres. Don't tempt Snakeintheass

I did make $5 today though. Thx Druff

[snake_in_the_ass]

played these out of boredom:

dbacks -1.5 +395
phillies -1.5 +310

[snake_in_the_ass]

Dodgers suck. Every Giants Dodgers game is extra innings. A battle with the frigging last place Giants. Off to play the tough Padres. Don't tempt Snakeintheass

LOL. You know I will be all over those Padres.

[simpdog]

GS/Utah over 100 first half again

As long as Durant/Curry/Thompson play this is going to hit every time.

Last game Utah didn't score the first 4 minutes and it still hit 104 by half. They won't have such a poor start again this time.

Capital W --Hit 107 this time.

[Sanlmar]

I am starting to play tight and drifting away from our core values.

Yankees, fading Dodgers, Red Sox over rated totals & Cubs trailing live autobets. (Lousy Cubs starting pitching & good offense) Yup, Cubs come back again last night. Squandering free money

Nothing refocuses me like anger and the Dodgers may have done the trick. I need to harness that shit today as I look at stuff.

God I wish Kershaw was pitching

I often Tunein to local sports talk for some angry fan insight. AM570 LA Sports. What an empty numb & dumb fan base. Just lost bad and all they talk about is Vin Scully night. What a wasteland. No culture.

Edit:

Description:
Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 918 Baltimore Orioles/Boston Red Sox over 9½ -115 for Game. W

Red Sox Orioles has turned into bean ball and player ejections. Gonna be a fun shit show so I need a sweat

Two AAA pitchers called up almost simultaneously.
Sox Kendrick is 32yr old fringe guy without swing & miss stuff. Sox horrible at the corners.

Orioles Wilson is another guy who isn't striking out guys.

Lotta balls in play on a decent weather night in Fenway band box.

[BeerAndPoker]

[Sanlmar]

It looks like the degen sports gamblers have left PFA or become Mormans so I'll just post this for my own amusement

2:30pm
Cubs (Hendricks) -116
Yankees (Pineda) +106

Pineda is my boy here. There are wonky Henry type metrics like DRA (deserved runs average - vs era) that reveal this guy to be a hidden gem.

Unfortunately we aren't getting value imo.

For 2 years now I've been playing the LIVE Cubs trailing autobet. I'd be in a soup line otherwise.

This year, Cubs have come from behind 10 of their 16 wins.

The Total is 6.5 Hendricks was a Cy Young fraud last year. It was all defense. So Pineda value is wrong and so is Hendrick's.

I am so tempted by the Total over but will elect to live bet. They say that poker is the only game in the casino where you can bet after you see the cards. This is the same shit. Let's see how these guys look first. The guys in the little grass huts misprice either side I'll take it. Cubs are live game gold but Yankees are still unrecognized money too

[Dan Druff]

Damn you Druff for talking me out of that over.

I'm not understanding.

You would have lost that over.

[Dan Druff]

played these out of boredom:

dbacks -1.5 +395
phillies -1.5 +310

Dbacks +395 didn't come close to winning, but that wasn't a terrible bet. They have a good offense (2nd most runs in the NL), so they can run it up pretty big, and thus getting paid 4-to-1 for a 2-run-or-more win isn't the worst thing to bet on.

Didn't like the Phillies one, though. This team doesn't score a lot. Lots of close games. They were this way last year, too. Plus you were only getting about 3-1.

I realize I'm writing about these after-the-fact when they both lost, but you should keep this in mind for next time.

I think I'm going to look into loading some $ on an online book and start betting. Baseball season is passing me by, and while I haven't been posting picks or keeping track, I've been pretty accurate so far in my predictions when I look at the lines and pick what I would have bet on.

[Daly]

"Holy s**t. This is trending towards our biggest NBA need of the entire year with 88% of bets on the Cavs minus the points" - @DaveMasonBOL

I fucking hate this bet but they don't AC the desert and all of that....

Toronto. +4.5

[snake_in_the_ass]

played these out of boredom:

dbacks -1.5 +395
phillies -1.5 +310

Dbacks +395 didn't come close to winning, but that wasn't a terrible bet. They have a good offense (2nd most runs in the NL), so they can run it up pretty big, and thus getting paid 4-to-1 for a 2-run-or-more win isn't the worst thing to bet on.

Didn't like the Phillies one, though. This team doesn't score a lot. Lots of close games. They were this way last year, too. Plus you were only getting about 3-1.

I realize I'm writing about these after-the-fact when they both lost, but you should keep this in mind for next time.

I think I'm going to look into loading some $ on an online book and start betting. Baseball season is passing me by, and while I haven't been posting picks or keeping track, I've been pretty accurate so far in my predictions when I look at the lines and pick what I would have bet on.

Arizona is #1 in runs and Phillies are right in the middle. The only consolation is that both teams lost because it would have sucked if either team won by exactly one run.

How about posting some plays, even if you are not betting them?

[Sanlmar]

"Holy s**t. This is trending towards our biggest NBA need of the entire year with 88% of bets on the Cavs minus the points" - @DaveMasonBOL

I fucking hate this bet but they don't AC the desert and all of that....

Toronto. +4.5

DaveMasonBOL. Another Daly gem. Never knew he was out there. Love it. No way, NBA though

Saw someone post props about BOL online poker room being the best currently. Despite (or because of) Brent Beckley i see a lot of improvements & I gotta say I am 100% satisfied with everything over there.

... and I rarely have anything positive to say about anyone or anything

I keep getting offers and emails from 5Dimes and have tried everything I can think of to unsubscribe from their mailing list.

[Daly]

#Raptors buyback finally hit the market, dropping the line back down to +4 at most offshore sportsbooks.

sportsinsights.com/free-nba-odds/

[Sanlmar]

Top 6 1 out / 2 on
Y 0
C 1

Laid it down just as Hendricks got pulled
5/5/2017 3:59:57 PM
Description:
NEW YORK YANKEES at CHICAGO CUBS Moneyline YANKEES +180

[simpdog]

Top 6 1 out / 2 on
Y 0
C 1

Laid it down just as Hendricks got pulled
5/5/2017 3:59:57 PM
Description:
NEW YORK YANKEES at CHICAGO CUBS Moneyline YANKEES +180

Were you betting either team when it hit 1-0?

Hopefully the Yanks go up 2-1 and then you can bet +180 on Cubs.

[Sanlmar]

Top 6 1 out / 2 on
Y 0
C 1

Laid it down just as Hendricks got pulled
5/5/2017 3:59:57 PM
Description:
NEW YORK YANKEES at CHICAGO CUBS Moneyline YANKEES +180

Were you betting either team when it hit 1-0?

Hopefully the Yanks go up 2-1 and then you can bet +180 on Cubs.

I had 2 Yankees on 1 out and tired Hendricks. Castro was the thrown out at plate
I was close

5/5/2017 4:12:07 PM
Description:
NEW YORK YANKEES at CHICAGO CUBS Moneyline YANKEES +550

I suggest you let me spew alone. Lol

[snake_in_the_ass]

Were you betting either team when it hit 1-0?

Hopefully the Yanks go up 2-1 and then you can bet +180 on Cubs.

I had 2 Yankees on 1 out and tired Hendricks. Castro was the thrown out at plate
I was close

5/5/2017 4:12:07 PM
Description:
NEW YORK YANKEES at CHICAGO CUBS Moneyline YANKEES +550

I suggest you let me spew alone. Lol

Yankees have had men on all day but can't get the key hit.