*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[Dan Druff]

Someone explain this to me.

Usually live bets on MLB run lines don't have much (or any) value because of all the extra juice.

Today I saw a mind-boggling one.

Teheran is pitching great for the Braves, and they were up 2-0 against the Pirates in Pittsburgh.

There were 2 outs in the bottom of the 7th.

I got under 4.5 at -133.

That seems like great value. Braves don't hit well, and they also have a decent bullpen. And there were just 2 1/3 innings left. If 2 runs scored, I would still win.

Both books I have were around the same line. One was -140, one was -133.

Only sad thing was that it limited me to a relatively small bet (365 to win 275) on the site with the better line, so that's what I did. That's about half what I would normally bet, but I would have actually bet more if I could have because I really liked this one.

Now in the bottom of 8th, still 2-0.

NH, that looks like an easy one

I thought about it some more and realized why the line was lower than I expected.

Basically if the Pirates score 2, then the bet loses no matter what because the game is tied.

I still think it was a good bet.

However right now the PIrates are threatening, 1st and 3rd 2 outs. If someone cracks a double or better, I lose. McCutchen is up. Uh oh.

At least they got rid of Teheran and put in their best reliever (Vizcaino).

Edit: Popped up. Out of the inning.

[Daly]

Historically you figure 1 run an inning. 1 out still left in the 7th and as you said if Pitt scores two and you are laying .33.

It cashed so that's all that counts. I don't think it was a big + EV spot there because of the .33

[Dan Druff]

Ended up closer than I thought. Final score 3-1, but Braves AND Pirates had runners at 3rd in the 8th/9th.

[Benford]

Ended up closer than I thought. Final score 3-1, but Braves AND Pirates had runners at 3rd in the 8th/9th.

F'd up the rep placement, was supposed to be on radio show thread.

[snake_in_the_ass]

The brewers really fucked me hard tonight. I have been making some timely bets against the Cubs lately but got burned tonight. At least I wasn't on that Egyptian airplane that is at the bottom of the ocean.

The Cubs offense is in hibernation mode. I think the Giants are going to give them a hard time this weekend. Might go for some revenge.

[Dan Druff]

Today's bets:

Chicago White Sox -1.5 +120 vs. Houston
San Diego +130 vs. San Francisco
Washington -115 at NY Mets

[Daly]

For those with you that have the book with the political props they just opened a window for Summer Olympics medal count.

Japan swept Judo and luck boxed into 6 golds in swimming in 2004 and cracked 10 Golds for the only time in modern history. To the best of my knowledge they don't have any Michael Phelps out there that can get 4-6 Golds on his own.

Japan under 14.5 Golds -160

[Dan Druff]

I really am horrible with these -1.5 run lines.

My CWS bet on Sale (8-0, best pitcher in AL so far) vs Houston and a bad pitcher was looking close but good, up 2-0 going to the 8th.

Houston got 1 run in 8th (solo HR), now I'm about to lose by 1 run yet again.

I realize the risk with those -1.5 lines, especially at home, but I've lost SO many of these in the 8th/9th innings. Like I think I'm 1-5 on them now, with all 5 of those losses coming in the last 2 innings.

[Dan Druff]

Yup, Sale goes up to 9-0 with a CG 4-hitter, but I lose the bet.

Such a joke. My Washington play easily won.

Almost went with Guerra (an underrated pitcher) with Milwaukee versus Chicago today, but Hammel's numbers scared me, so I didn't. Milwaukee won 5-3.

SD will make or break me today, but are down 2-1 after 4.

[snake_in_the_ass]

5/20 MLB

Giants +175
Rockies +170
Marlins +100
Oakland -130

[Dan Druff]

Padres suck. Can't score. 3-1 deficit in 7th seems insurmountable for this team.

[snake_in_the_ass]

Padres suck. Can't score. 3-1 deficit in 7th seems insurmountable for this team.

Padres are a streaky team. Their offense gets hot for 3 or 4 games and then it goes back into hibernation.

[Daly]

I really am horrible with these -1.5 run lines.

You are not the only one. In a game where truly awful teams still win more then 33% of the time getting a run helps a whole hell of a lot.

I've yet to meet a player who has been profitable betting run lines over the long term.

[Crowe Diddly]

Not exactly the right thread for this maybe, but since this is where everyone talked about the Odor-Bautista fight, figured I'd put this here. Firas Zahabi, head coach at Tristar Gym (GSP, Rory MacDonald, et al) breaks down the fight.

[BeerAndPoker]

All of the hype on the Cubs is deserved but lets not discount what the Chicago White Sox Chris Sale has done. He is 9-0, 1.58 ERA and two complete games through 41 team games played. That is really crazy imo. The guy could end up north of 25 wins.

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

I think san has managed to build an addition to his house off of the sauwks bets this year...

crazy stat...as a team they are batting 0.296...don't think ive seen anything like that 1/4 of the way through a season...its around 30 points better than anybody else in the AL...

[Charham]

ok boys, Arrieta has been money all year. However, I am going to pass today. Road game, both teams playing pretty well, Peavey seems to be doing better. Arrieta has to lose a few games this year, and this is the kind of game he might lose. anyone strongly disagree?

I am playing pirates, philly, mets and I think some value on Rangers.

[snake_in_the_ass]

5/20 MLB

Giants +175
Rockies +170
Marlins +100
Oakland -130

Lost 2 and getting raped in pending 2. Oh well. Try again tomorrow.

[Dan Druff]

ok boys, Arrieta has been money all year. However, I am going to pass today. Road game, both teams playing pretty well, Peavey seems to be doing better. Arrieta has to lose a few games this year, and this is the kind of game he might lose. anyone strongly disagree?

I am playing pirates, philly, mets and I think some value on Rangers.

I didn't see it as extreme as you, but i totally saw a thing like Cubs win 2-1, so I decided to pass on this, Otherwise I would have bet the -1.5 line (plus I've run awful on those lately).

Of course, Cubs now up 5-0 so a bet on them is pretty much money, unless it gets rained out (which is possible).

[Charham]

ok boys, Arrieta has been money all year. However, I am going to pass today. Road game, both teams playing pretty well, Peavey seems to be doing better. Arrieta has to lose a few games this year, and this is the kind of game he might lose. anyone strongly disagree?

I am playing pirates, philly, mets and I think some value on Rangers.

I didn't see it as extreme as you, but i totally saw a thing like Cubs win 2-1, so I decided to pass on this, Otherwise I would have bet the -1.5 line (plus I've run awful on those lately).

Of course, Cubs now up 5-0 so a bet on them is pretty much money, unless it gets rained out (which is possible).

I feel stupid I missed this one. Over thought it. For today, Lester a better pitcher, Cubs even without Hayward still rolling.