*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[BeerAndPoker]

I also have a bet on Spurs -0.5 1Q. So far this is not looking great out of the gate but we will see.

Testing a theory here lately fading teams who are playing the second game of a back to back in the first quarter versus a team who didn't play the night before that has a better than .500 record. I would never fade a few teams like the Warriors for and probably not the Spurs or Thunder.

I won with Raptors -2.5 1Q earlier. Pistons had to travel after last nights game to Toronto to play a game starting 23 hours from the night before and they are getting rocked tonight in the overall game too.

[Dan Druff]

Hate to say it, BeerAndPoker, but a 1st quarter bet on Spurs is looking pretty bad right now.

As far as the game bet, a 7-point early deficit isn't good, but isn't that meaningful.

[BeerAndPoker]

Hate to say it, BeerAndPoker, but a 1st quarter bet on Spurs is looking pretty bad right now.

As far as the game bet, a 7-point early deficit isn't good, but isn't that meaningful.

Yeah, that one not looking good at all.

I beginning to think betting Cavs overs for the next few games might be worth looking at a lot if they are really going to stick to playing this tempo and continuing to do it well.

Three fouls on Aldridge in the first quarter. I realize the Spurs are without Duncan but Aldridge still should have been on the bench after the second one.

[Dan Druff]

Agree that Cavs look like a good over bet for awhile.

Spurs are lucky to only be 10 down. They are playing terribly, and don't seem to have an answer for the Cavs' fast pace. They also are shooting very poorly.

Whole game has looked like a mess. This is going to be a blowout unless they get things together.

[BeerAndPoker]

Last night was the same thing a wide open Kevin Love and he don't miss much when that happens.

[simpdog]

When does it become +ev to try for a middle?

If you have -4 -105 does it start to look good at +5.5 where we are? Or +6?

[Daly]

Hope you guys loaded up on that Cruz arbitrage.

[Daly]

So it looks like Lady GaGa for the National anthem. I found her doing one at a lgbt event in 2013. She clocked in at 2:14 but didn't even ham it up all that much. I'd feel comfortable saying over 2:14

[Daly]

So it looks like Lady GaGa for the National anthem. I found her doing one at a lgbt event in 2013. She clocked in at 2:14 but didn't even ham it up all that much. I'd feel comfortable saying over 2:14

Come full circle on this ESP because Bovada made the line 2:20. Under.

[VegasJim]

Liking Georgetown +4.5 @ Butler

[Daly]

Lillard under 24

[SlowRoll]

Pistons/Knicks Under 203
Pelicans -10.5

Suns +8 (I like this significantly less than the 2 above, but it still is a very tempting line as I think Phoenix could actually run away with this game if it plays out right)

This is more than I usually bet in a night, but these are all look like good spots to me.

[SlowRoll]

Are there any player props for Markieff Morris or Devon Book tonight? I cannot find any but of of these guys have amazing matchups and are now the #1 and #2 options for their teams and will see a lot of minutes tonight.

Booker will probably not guard Harden, so he shouldn't be a risk for foul trouble or getting tired from chasing him around - they will put PJ Tucker on Harden and allow Booker to focus on scoring as he will be facing Harden's lol defense.
Phoenix is now running their offense through Markieff and he is not shy about shooting. Houston is awful against power forwards... he should have a huge night tonight.

[IAmProfessionalTalk]

Agree on Phoenix. I make them +5/+5.5 here.

[DRK Star]

http://abc7chicago.com/sports/raw-vi...adium/1188710/

[Daly]

My best bets for the super bowl....

GaGa under 2:175 -150
McManus first KO touchback -200
Newton Over 30.5 PA
Tolbert Under 10.5
Olsen O 5 -135
Gatorade Orange +100
MVP Thanks God First +200

[Drexel]

My best bets for the super bowl....

GaGa under 2:175 -150
McManus first KO touchback -200
Newton Over 30.5 PA
Tolbert Under 10.5
Olsen O 5 -135
Gatorade Orange +100
MVP Thanks God First +200

Daly,

Thanks for coming on the show last night. Again- apologies for the fail and keeping you waiting so long.

I'd love to have you back on. You come off like many of the touts I hear on local radio here in Vegas except you're much more educated and articulate.

Definitely would like to do a march madness show with you and China next month.

Godspeed

[Daly]

My best bets for the super bowl....

GaGa under 2:175 -150
McManus first KO touchback -200
Newton Over 30.5 PA
Tolbert Under 10.5
Olsen O 5 -135
Gatorade Orange +100
MVP Thanks God First +200

Daly,

Thanks for coming on the show last night. Again- apologies for the fail and keeping you waiting so long.

I'd love to have you back on. You come off like many of the touts I hear on local radio here in Vegas except you're much more educated and articulate.

Definitely would like to do a march madness show with you and China next month.

Godspeed

You have to be kidding me? It was my pleasure. NCAAB is probably the weakest link in my chain but I'm always up to talk Gambling, Poker or Vegas.

Best of luck and keep the hits coming.

[Daly]

Point of clarification from my guest appearance on the Drexel show.... I do think that Denver +6 is the bet on the game. I'm not so hot on the Den ML. I stand by my comments on the Denver D being disrespected and I think they hold Car to 24-21 points. I do think that wI'll be enough to get it done. I see this as a 21-17 Carolina W.

[BeerAndPoker]

Point of clarification from my guest appearance on the Drexel show.... I do think that Denver +6 is the bet on the game. I'm not so hot on the Den ML. I stand by my comments on the Denver D being disrespected and I think they hold Car to 24-21 points. I do think that wI'll be enough to get it done. I see this as a 21-17 Carolina W.

Denver defense is very good but don't discount the fact that Peyton is a dinosaur QB who could throw an interception at any moment pinned deep where Carolina scores off that. The same could go for Cam but I don't think it will.

Carolina defense is also under rated by many coming into this game versus a team that has really struggled to score at times. This Carolina team made the best offense in football look like trash in their last game forcing seven turnovers.

If the Panthers score 24 points that might be enough for them where they win in a 24-17(or less) type of game.

Some great defenses can get lit up when their offense can't move the ball so they give their opponent mid field position after going three and out punting it away.

Then we have Cam Newton who can really puzzle the Broncos defense in ways they haven't had to deal with all year.

If Carolina does put up a bunch of early points it will be very tough for Denver to come back. This isn't Seattle who had a more consistent offense this year after like week 6 then Denver has.

If Denver does win it will be some 17-14 type of game imo.