*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[Dan Druff]

Starting soon:

Cincinnati (Ashcraft) +133 at Pittsburgh (M. Keller)

Can you believe Pittsburgh is 13-7, and leads the NL in scoring? It's true.

But some of this is a mirage, as a lot of their big output games were either in Colorado, or against bad pitchers.

Graham Ashcraft is not a bad pitcher. He's off to a tremendous start in 2023, with a 1.42 ERA, and throws 95-98 mph with above average movement. He even held his own visiting the tough Braves in Altanta.

Mitch Keller isn't bad, but he's not great. His velocity isn't as good as Ashcraft's, he has a 25/10 K-BB ratio, and he's averaging about a hit allowed per inning. His CSW also isn't particularly impressive so far.

This looks like a letdown game for upstart Pittsburgh, and even though the Reds are bad, some of that has been due to poor pitching. They're still averaging well over 4 runs per game.

[Dan Druff]

Two more picks:

Yankees (D. German) -126 vs Toronto (Kikuchi)

Domingo German has a 19/5 K-BB ratio in just 14 innings, and has posted 39% and 43% CSW ratios in 2 of his 3 starts. Not the biggest fan of his in previous years, but he's looking pretty good thus far. He faces Yusei Kikuchi, who is coming off a good start against the Rays, but otherwise hasn't been impressive. He gave up a lot of hard hit balls in his previous two starts, including the one against the weak Royals, where he lucked out and only gave up 1 ER.

The so-far-underachieving and banged up Yankees are at home and have the much better pitcher going tonight.




San Francisco (DeSclafani) -110 vs Mets (Lucchesi)

DeScalfani is a weird pitcher, who seems to be either excellent (2021, 2023) or awful (2022) in a given year. Fortunately it's an odd year, and he's killing it so far, in what appears to be a major bounceback from his disasterous 2022 which ended in injury. He has a 16/0 K-BB ratio, and a 1.42 ERA, to go with a 0.634 WHIP thus far.

He faces the Mets who are starting a guy off Tommy John surgery, who has never registered an ERA below 4. He last pitched in MLB in 2021.

[Sanlmar]

Nice write up Druff.

Any of you FanDuel DraftKings guys know the mechanics of double result wagering? The Angels scream halftime full time. The Angels bullpen is not as bad as appears at first glance. Uh, Ohtani Day. How else do you celebrate the greatest player of multiple generations?

Islanders -125 NHL



I’m grieving over the Bruins. They were hit by the plague running thru locker room. Bergeron out. Ullmark sick. Pasta hurt but playing amd prolly sick. Its a national tragedy

[Dan Druff]

A walk and two weak singles, and the Pirates are up 2-0.

This fucking team. Somehow with a roster of failplayers they keep just getting it done.

[Sanlmar]

Germán engineering


Ullmark is playing with one of those IV’s on a pole you can walk around with. Kreijce is out. Total calamity. I’m still rolling cause I’m a degenerate

Finally sports that actually matter to bet on

[Dan Druff]

Germán engineering


Ullmark is playing with one of those IV’s on a pole you can walk around with. Kreijce is out. Total calamity. I’m still rolling cause I’m a degenerate

Finally sports that actually matter to bet on

I used to bet against German, as he was often overvalued, especially when the Yankees were rolling along, and they were up against a mediocre team with a good pitcher.

I winced for a second before backing him here, but I had to go with the data. At the moment it's 2-1 Blue Jays, and the Reds pulled into a 2-2 tie. Both are looking like low scoring affairs, in this schizophrenic age of MLB where every team seems to either put out gobs of offense or struggle to score, with little in between.

Dodgers gave up 13 runs today, while almost being the victims of a perfect game, against a no-name pitcher named Smyly.

Weird times we are in. Very tough on sports handicappers when major changes are made to the game or how it's played. Between the super-high NBA totals, the 3-point revolution brought on by Curry, and the changes in baseball involving the 3-outcome approach, the shift, and the ban of the shift, we must always be on our toes.

Haralabob had it a lot easier when he employed a computer guy to figure out that 2nd half NBA totals weren't being adjusted properly based upon the 1st half, and they made a killing until it was corrected.

Nothing good ever lasts.

[DJ_Chaps]

stars loves throwing crumbs, strange degen parlay only way to get a few units together if it hits


Nikola Jokic Double Double/Denver To Win @ 1.91
Player Performance Doubles - Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Friday, April 21, 2023, 10:30 p.m.

Leon Draisaitl & Viktor Arvidsson both Over 0.5 Goals @ 6.00
Player Performance Parlays - Edmonton Oilers @ Los Angeles Kings
Friday, April 21, 2023, 11:10 p.m.

San Francisco Giants @ 1.82
Money Line - New York Mets (J Lucchesi) @ San Francisco Giants (A DeSclafani)
Friday, April 21, 2023, 11:16 p.m.


Stake:
US$2.00 Free Bet
Potential Returns:
US$39.69

[Dan Druff]

Did you see how they Perfect Game ended? Collision between catcher and third baseman.

So the rays took out faucher and brought in a lefty vs the white Sox. Known lefty killing team. Got it. Now that’s strange. Watching hockey and missed the live over.

Yeah. Super weird.

Reds back down 3-2. Keller has pitched the better game. Ashcraft is out. Keller mostly pitched very well, and is still in.

Yankees have their usual issue of not being able to score. They've allowed an MLB best 59 runs, but can't score runs. Today is no different. Sad!

[Dan Druff]

Something worth noting about the Pirates is that they have very good back end relief pitching.

You have this Holderman guy (getting holds) in the 8th, and David Bednar in the 9th, who tends to be lights out. This prevents teams from mounting late comebacks against them. On the other side, I don't like seeing myself down 2 runs to them late. Seems hopeless. Pittsburgh only managed 6 hits and no HR, so for them to have 4 runs here kinda sucks.

And the Yankees just fell behind 4-1.

Not gonna be a good day. Go Giants?

[Daly]

Fun fact: the under is un betable in the nhl playoffs.


Used to be the other way around. Now teams just say fuck it and pull the goalie for a hour

[Sanlmar]

Fun fact: the under is un betable in the nhl playoffs.


Used to be the other way around. Now teams just say fuck it and pull the goalie for a hour

Islanders game

I wouldn’t bet a playoff total with your money

I think Minny pulled @ 4:30. Gave me chills

[Sanlmar]

Islanders Canes just beating the hell out of each other brawling at the end of the game. Hearns Hagler

I forgot Bruins were playing

NBA players hugging and making dinner plans after a loss with their opponents

[Daly]

Fun fact: the under is un betable in the nhl playoffs.


Used to be the other way around. Now teams just say fuck it and pull the goalie for a hour

Islanders game

I wouldn’t bet a playoff total with your money

I think Minny pulled @ 4:30. Gave me chills

Lesson learned

[Sanlmar]

Ohtani is pitching atm.

NYTimes article

What’s it like to be Shohei Ohtani? Only Bo would know.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/sports/...kson-similiar/

Will read after the game.

Couldn’t solve the double bet riddle for that game but I have action F5 in a mix

[Dan Druff]

Welp. One of those days. 0-3 incoming.

No offense. Reds got 2 runs, Yankees got 1 run, and at the moment, the Giants have zero point zero in the 6th.

That's 3 runs in 23+ innings.

[Sanlmar]

Nice write up Druff.

Any of you FanDuel DraftKings guys know the mechanics of double result wagering? The Angels scream halftime full time. The Angels bullpen is not as bad as appears at first glance. Uh, Ohtani Day. How else do you celebrate the greatest player of multiple generations?

Islanders -125 NHL ✅



I’m grieving over the Bruins. They were hit by the plague running thru locker room. Bergeron out. Ullmark sick. Pasta hurt but playing amd prolly sick. Its a national tragedy

I’m having a night but that alt total BTTS parlay brought me so much joy.

There is a whole alt parlay culture out there that is kinda weird and interesting. I’m not talking about the Bud Light Biden type alt culture. I’m talking wagering. Oh, never mind

[simpdog]

Imagine if the oilers had ullmark or swayman……

Glad playoffs only come once a year for NHL.

Everyday this week staying up too late watching the West Coast games.

And don’t get me started with my Leafs. I have lost at least a month off the end of my life from game 1.

[Sanlmar]

Imagine if the oilers had ullmark or swayman……

Glad playoffs only come once a year for NHL.

Everyday this week staying up too late watching the West Coast games.

And don’t get me started with my Leafs. I have lost at least a month off the end of my life.

Plus you are so completely amped after the games there is no chance you are coming down without Xanax and Bourbon.

Last Monday with the pair of overtimes in two epic games was a really rough start to the week. It’s worse than the Australian Open.

The Oilers shoulda gotten Vejmelka IMO. Bruins are still better than the Oilers woulda been with the goalies Ullmark and Swayman. Oilers are only one line deep. McDavid needs to get outta town like Ohtani.

[NickyPipes]

Sergei Pavlovich +130

[Sanlmar]