today's PRO-LINE. super square this week aside from NYG
CIN -6.5
DAL -6.5
GB -4.5
NYG PROLINE moneyline (they gotta win by 4)
pays 19.18x
today's PRO-LINE. super square this week aside from NYG
CIN -6.5
DAL -6.5
GB -4.5
NYG PROLINE moneyline (they gotta win by 4)
pays 19.18x
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Chaps' 2017-18 NFL $$ Thread
I am in phone so doing my best to list okays from Memory. Might be off some.
Giants *3
Jets -1
Seahawks +6.5
Colts +3
Lions +7
Ravens/bengals tease
Patriots/raiders tease
Saints/dolphins tease (yes saints did miraculously cover the teaser line with that end of game FG)
Originally Posted by Kalam
The 2 most lopsided money games today are Bucs and Seahawks. So based on recent trends Panthers and Chargers are very +EV. Go for it Druff. Personally, I just cant pull the trigger.
Negative - Vegas moved the line significantly on both. Tells me they don’t want to take a position.
They have left the Jags/Giants number at 3 all week. That tells me they want to have a position on the Jags. I want my $$ to be with the boys who AC the desert.
Atlanta is another one. They have left that number at 6.5 all week, although i think they know if they move to 7 they will get all sorts of buyers.
Not calling lock but smart $$ on Jags.
I was listening to a podcast where a bet mgm employee was promoting their product, and they said these were 2 of the most lopsided positions they had. And he said that reflects the industry. They could be lying I guess. They are obviously selling a product, not trying to give bettors +EV bets against them.
Negative - Vegas moved the line significantly on both. Tells me they don’t want to take a position.
They have left the Jags/Giants number at 3 all week. That tells me they want to have a position on the Jags. I want my $$ to be with the boys who AC the desert.
Atlanta is another one. They have left that number at 6.5 all week, although i think they know if they move to 7 they will get all sorts of buyers.
Not calling lock but smart $$ on Jags.
Do you think sharps are buying back Carolina +13?
Last edited by Kalam; 10-23-2022 at 08:51 AM.
My understanding is unders have hit at something like 59% so far, and these things always correct over a season. So theoretically it should be +EV to just bet overs until it corrects back to around 50%, especially if you have -105 lines.
Betting on the Jags feels like a trap rn. Wth with the 5-1 team getting points?
Tom Brady is or is not going to retire mid-season?
They are still technically "winning" the division. It would be one thing if someone else was running away with the division, but they are still probably small favorites to be hosting a first round playoff games, so that might affect things.
country978 you were right. It did feel weird betting against the Giants, who have been underrated for the most part this year. I thought it was going to barely work out until near the end of the game, and indeed that trap line failed to trap the ploppies, who walked away feeling brilliant.
Now if you want to talk about an overrated team, it's the Chargers, whose 4-2 record is the product of playing lolbad teams thus far. They looked so bad against the terrible Broncos last week, and only won in OT thanks to a careless mistake during a punt return.
So the +195 on an upstart Seahawks team was pretty obvious this week, and it broke out to a 17-0 lead, and I felt like a genius. Unfortunately, Metcalf got hurt in the late 1st and it was all downhill, so now that Chargers are back in it, 17-14. They still are overrated, though, and I will probably keep fading them. But not next week because they have a bye.
It bears repeating, Betting nfl is tough
Brady has this fantasy of playing until 50. That fantasy probably ruined his marriage. I'm sure now he's realizing that Father Time is finally catching up with him. I doubt he retires midseason, but I highly doubt we will see him playing again next year. The impending divorce might be affecting his play, as well.They are still technically "winning" the division. It would be one thing if someone else was running away with the division, but they are still probably small favorites to be hosting a first round playoff games, so that might affect things.
Basically my thinking on this one. Giants are just too good this year.
Negative - Vegas moved the line significantly on both. Tells me they don’t want to take a position.
They have left the Jags/Giants number at 3 all week. That tells me they want to have a position on the Jags. I want my $$ to be with the boys who AC the desert.
Atlanta is another one. They have left that number at 6.5 all week, although i think they know if they move to 7 they will get all sorts of buyers.
Not calling lock but smart $$ on Jags.
Geez... a safety. How embarrassing. I hope this doesn't allow the Chargers get back into it and win. Still an 11-point lead, but you can't let shit like this happen when you're the visiting team and trying to hold a lead in the 4th quarter.
Denver under came in. This team has such a shit offense.
Seattle/LA game is over. Nice one. I was one of 2 or 3 people in my pool of 40 to be on the hawks. Thanks Druff!! Of course I also had the Jags so the week is out
PACKERS EAT SHIT
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Chaps' 2017-18 NFL $$ Thread
Another nice NFL Sunday for me. Makes up some for the bad start in the NBA I've had, and the inconsistent NCAAF results.
3-1, up 2.77 units today, thanks to the +195 Seahawks bet. Would've been a perfect 4-0 if Jax hadn't shit the bed in the 4th. None of my 3 wins were close.
Need Dolphins -1 as part of a teaser. Currently up 16-10 halfway through 3rd.
They have been in the red zone 5 times and only have 16 points to show for it, including the last trip where they ran on 3rd and 3 and 4th and 3 and got stuffed both times.
Getting a real bad feeling about this one. Dolphins could easily have 31 here and game over, but leaving the Steelers in it like they have, I am starting to smell an upset brewing.
I am having a great weekend (for me). Counting a couple NBA bets my record this weekend is 29-12 so far, sweating Dolphins to win by 1.
Surprised both of us are having a good day at the same time, as we are so often on the opposite side. For example, I had the Giants.
I imagine the books got beat up this weekend. Pending outcome of Miami and New England games most (all?) of the potential teaser bets have covered (including potential non Wongs like Bengals and Ravens) and a lot of public dogs covered (Giants, Jets, Seahawks, Commanders?).
McDanlels is not coaching a good game IMO.
For example, when up 16-10 it is 3rd and 3 from like the 15 yard line and he calls a run play that gets stuffed. Either kick the FG to go up 2 scores or throw a short pass. What are the odds of converting 4th and 3 and running. Has to be like 20%.
Then halfway through the 4th around the 50 yard line and same score it is 3rd and 3 and they throw a 40 yard bomb that falls incomplete and then punts. Again, throw a short pass, get the first down. This play calling really sucks. They just refuse to go up more than 6 points. They are just begging for Pittsburgh to steal this game.
Edit: Yep, Steelers get ball halfway through 4th and turn the switch and just slicing through the Dolphins D like butter, after doing nothing the whole game. But the Dolphins refused to put the game away, so now Pitt will take it.
Last edited by Kalam; 10-23-2022 at 07:09 PM.
Wow, Dolphins go straight into turtle mode on offense (I am not sure they got a single 1st down in the whole 4th Q) and beg Pittsburgh to take it, but Pickett throws two 4th Q interceptions to seal the Dolphins win.
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