This is part of what makes you great … no one who LIKES football would get behind that offense. I can’t believe that’s Russel Wilson. What happened to him?Originally Posted by Dan Druff
LFG Broncos
This is part of what makes you great … no one who LIKES football would get behind that offense. I can’t believe that’s Russel Wilson. What happened to him?
LFG Broncos
Great defense by Broncos here. Got lucky on that out-of-bounds catch though.
Just need a damn FG here to win. gogogo
If Cleveland Guardians were playing I never would have put myself thru this ordeal
INT plz
What a horrendous mistake on that punt catch. Disasterous way to lose if that's what happens.
I would say this was a bad beat, but it's really not. Can't win if you can't score for 3.5 quarters.
I wanted to go to be an hour ago but couldn't believe you took Denver and then they kept it so close the whole way. Shitty game.
Some kind of crazy NFL total unders record so far I would imagine.
I would say this was a bad beat, but it's really not. Can't win if you can't score for 3.5 quarters.
Chargers usually find a way to lose that type of game. Russ last two 2nd halfs have been some of the worst QB play since Ryan Leaf.
Tough beat Druff
Druff, great start to the season. Hats off. However, I wouldn't get too far over your skis. From your NBA and MLB I can tell you are generally a contrarian and under bettor. You figure out the bet no recreational better would ever dream taking and then take it. Which is a fine strategy. Possibly even a long term winning one.I'm not a huge NFL fan but I decided to get into it more this year, mainly because I was interested in trying my hand at betting it.
But you are correct that I analyze these games from a pure bettor's standpoint rather than an NFL fan's standpoint, which is different than how I approach MLB and NBA, also being longtime fans of those sports.
There are a few factors also working in my favor so far:
- There have been some clear underrated teams thus far, and clear overrated teams, and for whatever reason, the lines haven't adjusted much
- A lot of games expected by sharps to go under have gone under, and if they haven't, they've been close
- In general, the results have favored the positions taken by sharp and semi-sharp NFL bettors. I have seen other poker players bragging on social media that they've gotten off to a great start this year.
But as a lifelong NFL bettor I can let you know this year is an anomaly so far with all the dogs and unders winning at the clip they have. Some years teasers didn't lose. You could blindly stack -7.5 favorites teased to 1.5 and it was printing money. Most books actually adjusted teaser odds from -110 to -120 because they were getting crushed so bad. This year I am not sure I have won a single NFL Wong teaser involving a favorite. It really is crazy.
His Y/A was 6.7. Herberts was 4. Both QBs were under a lot of pressure 2nd half and didn't seem to handle it well. But it didn't look like any of the receivers were getting open either. Just bad offense all around. But no reason to single out Russ, especially as he was arguably the more effective QB in this game.
Can I hear an amen?Druff, great start to the season. Hats off. However, I wouldn't get too far over your skis. From your NBA and MLB I can tell you are generally a contrarian and under bettor. You figure out the bet no recreational better would ever dream taking and then take it. Which is a fine strategy. Possibly even a long term winning one.
But as a lifelong NFL bettor I can let you know this year is an anomaly so far with all the dogs and unders winning at the clip they have. Some years teasers didn't lose. You could blindly stack -7.5 favorites teased to 1.5 and it was printing money. Most books actually adjusted teaser odds from -110 to -120 because they were getting crushed so bad. This year I am not sure I have won a single NFL Wong teaser involving a favorite. It really is crazy.
Ecclesiastes 3:1-8
For everything there is a season …
Druff knows the game is always changing. The very reason I can’t watch the NFL anymore is prolly the very same reason he’s winning.
I do not want Druff to get all introspective though. Successful gamblers generally lead unexamined lives. This isn’t Yoga.
its probably short term bias from last weeks Thursday night game. I had a large wager on Denver and the interception at the end of regulation was terrible. Tonight they were equally bad, I feel Herbert should have more freedom at the line of scrimmage to get into something he likes. Play calling was conservative tonight and Mike Williams should have more 1on 1 opportunites against another really good Pat SurtainHis Y/A was 6.7. Herberts was 4. Both QBs were under a lot of pressure 2nd half and didn't seem to handle it well. But it didn't look like any of the receivers were getting open either. Just bad offense all around. But no reason to single out Russ, especially as he was arguably the more effective QB in this game.
If you love pain you’re gonna love the chargers vs seahawks. Seahawks +7 seems obv but I defer to Druff.its probably short term bias from last weeks Thursday night game. I had a large wager on Denver and the interception at the end of regulation was terrible. Tonight they were equally bad, I feel Herbert should have more freedom at the line of scrimmage to get into something he likes. Play calling was conservative tonight and Mike Williams should have more 1on 1 opportunites against another really good Pat Surtain
If you going to jump on this you will need to press play today.
The CJ is played at one of the longest courses on the PGA tour. “Gun to head” this makes Rham, Fitz and Cam Young my personal top picks for this weekend.
The other top 10 driving length and “tee to green” player in the field is sitting there at 125-1 at some locals. Bookmaker hung him at 100-1 and he was instantly hammered down to 60-1.
Kurt Kitayama
A steal at 100-1 or better
Ill make a separate thread for this. Todd was good enough to take $100 of my escrow with PFA and out it on Kurt (at 90-1). If Kurt goes on to win we are going to do something fun with the proceeds.
Sat out the 2-game opening NBA day.
Now time to get going with the NBA season with a large slate of picks.
Indiana -102 vs Washington (+1 ok)
Orlando +130 at Detroit (+3 ok)
New York +155 at Memphis (+4 ok)
Oklahoma City +10.5 at Minnesota
Oklahoma City at Minnesota - Under 225.5 -110 (225 ok)
New Orleans +130 at Brooklyn (+3 ok)
San Antonio -110 vs Chicago
Well, this isn't going how I hoped.
Of the bets I made:
Orlando down by 8 in late 3rd, after good start.
Indiana down by 10 in the late 3rd, behind whole way.
New Orleans up by 8 at the half (finally a good one).
New York down by 15 at the half, down the whole way.
OKC, which needs to lose by 10 or fewer, down by 15 in mid-2nd.
OKC under is on pace to win at the moment, but scoring has picked up.
San Antonio is getting clobbered by 17 in mid-2nd.
At the moment, even if the two good ones hold up (which is by now means a lock), I'll go 2-5, and lose 2.71 units.
Noble comeback attempt by Orlando, who tied it at 99 and had all the momentum, but they shit the bed and are about to lose.
NY now doing a similar comeback run. Hopefully I hit that. Then the day can't be terrible.
NY had a late comeback & lost in OT.
Orlando had a late comeback and tied it, but lost.
Indiana had a late comeback but ran out of time.
Shitty.
But I did hit NO +130 and both OKC picks (though under almost got fucked by fouling), so I ended up 3-4, down 0.88 units. Glad I could count on the Nets to be terrible.
Not good, but not devastating.
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