@Daly
--Ok, time to get serious. Obviously lines have changed and I understand you dont necessarily endorse current lines, but I went through this thread and some recommendations you have are:
WF under
Auburn over
Louisville over
Virginia under
Michigan over
Utah over
Pitt over
--Anything else?
--Any thoughts on Clemson U10.5? Even if the QB gets better, he really is going to not blow 2 games?
Looks like a fairly complete list at the moment.Originally Posted by Kalam
Think Pitt to win division is worth a stab
Utah to make playoff and win playoff - more so as an asset to hedge with.
I’m sure I’ll have some more plays as we get closer to kickoff.
I think Clemson has too much “change” to say where they will land. Could see them walking to a 12-0 season. Could see them struggling to score and going 8-4 in a true bad season. High variance team.
I’ve won like 13 of my last 15 baseball bets as I’ve been riding Cleveland and dodgers run lines, so I’m sure the wagering thread jinx will take over.. If Tristan happens to be off simp, he’s your guy in this series who has the chance to give up multi homers. Sometimes he gets his fastball more belt than chest and has a bad outing. Im obviously betting against that, but if you like your jays and want a sweat if he has an off day on extra value.
Single @
+120
Open
Aug 13 • 2022
Ticket ID: 4871199248
Moneyline: STL Cardinals
MIL Brewers @ STL Cardinals
Single @
+104
Open
Aug 13 • 2022
Ticket ID: 4871230907
Moneyline: CLE Guardians
CLE Guardians @ TOR Bluejays
“I know a guy” who has line of sight into several thousand accounts. If he is to be believed this is his worst baseball season ever. Every night everyone is taking the favorites and they are just mopping up. No though mt required and it’s square city. There have been the occasional night where all the -200 to -350 favorites go down and within 3 days the players make it all back and then some. He’s never had a losing summer before.
He’s a little worried about September. If the public gets off to a good start “we will have to go into the vault”
His advice was to mind your counterparty risk. If you got a smaller book who has been paying out all summer waiting for fall to get here and it’s all Bills/KC/Tampa covers to start the year people may have some problems getting paid out.
I imagine what kills a book is a run like the Dodgers have had. I’m never laying -270 unless it’s some dumb parlay. They’ve covered the —1.5 almost every night during their streak, often at plus money. I basically bet them any time they are —1.5 +125 or above.
“I know a guy” who has line of sight into several thousand accounts. If he is to be believed this is his worst baseball season ever. Every night everyone is taking the favorites and they are just mopping up. No though mt required and it’s square city. There have been the occasional night where all the -200 to -350 favorites go down and within 3 days the players make it all back and then some. He’s never had a losing summer before.
He’s a little worried about September. If the public gets off to a good start “we will have to go into the vault”
His advice was to mind your counterparty risk. If you got a smaller book who has been paying out all summer waiting for fall to get here and it’s all Bills/KC/Tampa covers to start the year people may have some problems getting paid out.
The books clearly don’t even want dodgers action atm making the -1.5 -177, so I laid off today.
Good to hear us squares are having a run. We can’t always lose.
Looks like a fairly complete list at the moment.
Think Pitt to win division is worth a stab
Utah to make playoff and win playoff - more so as an asset to hedge with.
I’m sure I’ll have some more plays as we get closer to kickoff.
I think Clemson has too much “change” to say where they will land. Could see them walking to a 12-0 season. Could see them struggling to score and going 8-4 in a true bad season. High variance team.
Would you lay this much juice on auburn?
Singles
(1)
@ -165
Minimize
Close
Over 5.5
Number of Games Won - Excluding Bowl Games & Play Offs
For 5.5? Absolutely.
Would you lay this much juice on auburn?
Singles
(1)
@ -165
Minimize
Close
Over 5.5
Number of Games Won - Excluding Bowl Games & Play Offs
Who is dealing that?
For 5.5? Absolutely.
Who is dealing that?
Legal book. Betrivers.
These states
https://unitedgamblers.com/articles/...etrivers-legal
My book has 6.5. It is shaded to the under -130, but that is still a pretty big disprepancy.
Legal book. Betrivers.
These states
https://unitedgamblers.com/articles/...etrivers-legal
You know what people are killing? MLB first 5 totals.
They are offered on Bovada and some legal books. I don’t know who originates these lines but they are doing a bad job. Looks like there aren’t any traders at the books looking over this action. It’s prolly so thin.
I see guys who post their action every morning and crush every day. Not touts or twitter touts. Just guys.
I don’t have access. I ain’t legal and I will never use Bovada so it’s painful but I’m strong and grudges are ore important to me than money.
Maybe I’ll copy pasta a couple days of picks and torture you too if anyone is interested.
For all the loyalty I have for Betonline I am having trouble with a withdrawal and am awaiting a phone call. Lotta crypto exchange problems these days and I wonder how the processors are doing too. Don’t mess with me man.
First withdrawal for me since Massachusetts passed legislation - doubt that’s it though.
Last edited by Sanlmar; 08-13-2022 at 11:44 AM.
Starting soon
Texas (Dunning) -114 vs Seattle (M. Gonzales)
Texas down 3-0 early, but they're trying to come back for me and win my 6th in a row.
Because of a betting hiatus I took (partially because of my Canadian vacation, partially because I was just not feeling it), I haven't lost since July 22.
Yep. 3-3 now.
Very quickly erased 3-0 deficit from 4 quick hits on the first pitch.
Still runners at 1st and 3rd.
gogogo
Make that 6 in a row
5 small dogs & 1 small fav
I doubt many/any of you are sick enough to bet any major money on preseason NFL. But let me say if I bet the saints tonight I’d fucking jump off a tall building and end it.
Just awful coaching and play in general.
I feel like this is the type of game I’m on the other side of all the time (I bet Texans kind of biggish).
Another nfl over….. think that’s 14 opening week?
Remember the “rules integrity fee”
Can you imagine a situation where the Celtics just lost game 5 to golden state to go down 2-3 in a 7 game series and then everyone bets millions of dollars on that result…..
But then an hour or so before game 6 started the NBA issues a presser saying that a foul wasn’t enforced correctly and as a result they are going to change the score of the series from 2-3 to 3-2.
Understand there is a huge LIV related fuck you to cam smith as he is heavily rumored to be here to play these last few weeks before he goes to collect a 125M draw from the Saudis. That’s “probably” *wink wink* what this definitely isn’t about here…… but this is some banana republic type shit.
I passed on betting cam smith this weekend because of LIV related pressure but I didn’t think it would come down to the PGA fucking him over
To square the circle on the below…. They waited until the following day to enforce this.
That's really awful.
3.5 - 1 is a shitty payout for a parlay but no point spreads. I’d be willing to guess there were some sharps out there back in the day nailing these
I just looked at my books odds for CFB championship, and Ohio St, Georgia and Alabama all have short odds, Clemson is +1100, and pretty much EVERYONE else is +5000 (Or very close, some name brands like USC and Michigan slightly lower odds). Crazy how top loaded those odds are.
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