Yeah, your dodgers made my day less stressful. I had Celtics -4, Dodgers -1.5, and then a ML parlay with the two at +134. I checked and it was 0-0 in the 4th. Next time I looked it was 7-0 Dodgers. That Tatum last second bucket made it a winning day, but your Dodgers were all comfort. Reds are bad man. And that Dodgers lineup is sick. Every time I looked it’s just another stud at the plate.Originally Posted by Dan Druff
And to be honest San, everytime I open the site a small part of me dies.
The noise right now is back to unbearable levels.
Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers will have under 6.5 strikeouts +110
10:10pm @home vs World Champion Atlanta Braves
give ya time to line up some credit
I’ll go over the splits and strike out & walk handicap in a bit.
Kershaw coming off near Perfect Game. He won’t last long
Braves are bottom 10 in strikeouts and top 10 walks. 19% so rate if I recall
Braves murder lefties. They see the ball great against southpaws.
Walks are very very important in strikeout props
Braves tagged Kershaw last year
I think the Dodgers crack Ynoa but let’s stay positive
Last edited by Sanlmar; 04-18-2022 at 05:39 PM.
God bless any/all of you who can bet baseball every night.
Tough grind.
Never said it was hockey.
I was wrong. NHL favorites were 22-0 before today. I can’t count
LOSER
genuinely surprised.
Math is idiotic
Just saw a current picture of Barry Greenstein and I’m more depressed than losing the Kershaw bet
Last edited by Sanlmar; 04-18-2022 at 08:16 PM.
San call me crazy but I think the books have been reading your posts....and the lines are inflated.
Philly +350
Detroit +385
Ottawa +200
Only have to win one.
Mine has Ottawa at +210 as well. Got a free bet to kill anyway, so lets go underdogs.
Personally I’m backing Burns/Horchel where I can get +1300 or better.
That said Clark/Tringale are +2900 in the real time exchange and are still hanging around at +7000 on some locals. If you like a value deal this is it.
Mine has Ottawa at +210 as well. Got a free bet to kill anyway, so lets go underdogs.
St. Louis Blues -128 vs Bruins
Fade Covid Sawks vs mighty Toronto
Speaking of Toronto. Leafs are most likely big favorite to fail. No Matthews. Bum Campbell in net for Leafs. Philly has legend Price in goal after a long absence. Toronto are the Dodgers of hockey.
Edit.
Price was in goal for Canadiens. I was scrambling with the start of baseball and hockey
Last edited by Sanlmar; 04-19-2022 at 03:15 PM.
There's the first one. Finishing ahead either way. Also the one I would have axed if only picking 2 of them lol.Mine has Ottawa at +210 as well. Got a free bet to kill anyway, so lets go underdogs.
Gd Philly blows.
Whoops won 2. Passing on GA tomorrow am but will be there Thursday San.
That’s works for me. I gotta hit the bank anyway.Whoops won 2. Passing on GA tomorrow am but will be there Thursday San.
Nice work.
Couple MLB dart-throws today
SD/CIN o8 -120
Gutierrez starting for Cinci is horrible, SD could easily cover on their own. Reds bullpen not good either. Reds bats have been ice-cold, but they are righty-heavy, and face young lefty Gore. Gore is a former top prospect whose mechanics got so out of whack he got demoted to rookie league last year. Had an average first start in the bigs this year after 1 strong AAA showing. I don't believe it yet.
MIN/KC o9 -110
Paddack does not look fixed yet. Lynch for KC is a former sandwich pick who has not figured it out yet in 16 starts in the bigs. Gonna guess it doesn't happen today for either of them.
Small parlay as well as both singles.
We might have a conflict for Thursday, Simp
Thursday
Panthers -605 vs Red Wings +420
Yup, same Red Wings that won +385
We can't bankrupt the bookies before the playoffs.We might have a conflict for Thursday, Simp
Thursday
Panthers -605 vs Red Wings +420
Yup, same Red Wings that won +385
So much for those dart throws.
I'll preface this by saying that I'm looking at this from the perspective of someone who played NBA DFS at a high level from 2016-2018 (until I decided to start playing high stakes H2H and went broke fast).
I've been having quite a bit of success with player props in NBA playoffs by targeting some specific scenarios.
I want to post the scenarios here and I'm interested if any of the sports betting experts can come up with a way to exploit these trends.
Books have made some of these props pretty expensive, so it's difficult.
One things I've noticed is that you can parlay multiple props for a specific player. The pricing is quite bad, but there is a strong correlation between some of these - as success in 1 area leads to more minutes/opportunity for the player.
Remember, this is specific to NBA playoff basketball.
NBA Player Props - Scenarios to Target
Scenario 1 - "Trusted Three and D" Guys
These are players who have a "three and D" role on their team, but are trusted by their coach and the stars on their team.
What Changes In The Playoff Environment?
- They see an increase in meaningful minutes
- Opposing coaching create defensive schemes throughout playoff series' focusing on putting the star players in uncomfortable situations
- Playoffs games are officiated differently than regular season, generally less fouls called.
This Results of This Environment on These Players?
1. An increase opportunity for blocks/steals from all "active defensive" players on the court.
- Lots of passes made under extreme pressure
- Shots taken out of tight coverage
- Less fouls called results in more potential blocks / steals
2. An increase in offensive opportunities from those "trusted" second tier players
- They need to be available to hit their shots when the stars
- More assist opportunities as they receive a pass from a star player in double coverage and find an open player for an easy basket
Who Are They?
1. Marcus Smart (Boston)
2. Seth Curry (Brooklyn)
3. Deandre Hunter (Atlanta)
NBA Player Props - Scenarios to Target
Scenario 2 - "Quick to Get Benched" Centers
These are centers who will start but have a real chance of getting benched if the game flow dictates it. They must not be part of the teams core defensive/offensive scheme. They must have a viable backup option. They should be poor ball handlers.
What Changes In The Playoff Environment?
- Coaches have developed plans on how to adjust in game based on game flow.
- Centers who play a traditional "big man" role become replaceable role players unless they are an integral part of the teams identity (ie. Rudy Gobert does not qualify but Andre Drummond does).
This Results of This Environment on These Players?
1. They have the potential to see extremely limited minutes despite being listed as a starter.
2. Their role is sometimes modified to focus on using their size to box out their opponents and allow the ball handlers to get rebounds due to increased defensive pressure.
Who Are They?
1. Steven Adams (Memphis)
2. Andre Drummond (Brooklyn)
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