Tempting to fade the Lakers for what is very likely to be their elimination game. However, Phoenix has looked crappy lately, so I can't trust them to cover big.
Instead, let's go with this meaningless game:
Oklahoma City -4.5 vs Portland
OKC/Portland - Under 221.5
Whoa.
So the under was not in doubt. At about 9:30 left in the game, the score was 90-72 Portland. So it looked like a lock for the Blazers, and a lock for the under.
Well, guess what? With 1:06 remaining, it was 98-94 OKC!! Can you believe it? In about 8.5 minutes, the Blazers were so bad that they allowed a fellow failteam to outscore them 26-4 and take a 4-point lead.
Unfortunately, I never got another basket from OKC, and the final was 98-94. Lost the spread by 0.5 points, and of course the under covered by a ton.
Two MLB dogs for you
Pittsburgh (Brubaker) +159 at St. Louis (Wainwright)
Wainwright pitched just 2 innings this spring, and has been pitching in MLB since 2005. JT Brubaker has some talent and a decent spring. He's actually the pitcher more likely to pitch well today.
Cincinnati (Mahle) +162 at Atlanta (Fried)
Mahle is, again, an underrated pitcher who struck out 210 last year. In general, I love getting a +162 price on him pitching. In his last spring start, Fried gave up 6 runs, and threw just 4 of 84 pitches for swing and miss strikes!
Sandwich's MLB Correlated Parlay of the Week: Cleveland Guardians & Over 7.5, +269
Wizard of Oz, Dorothy & Toto were Kansas until they weren’t in Kansas anymore. I’m seeing 26mph crosswinds atm.Originally Posted by Sandwich
Normally, the pitchers are ahead of the batters opening day. The strike shortened spring training prolly changed that. Tempted to get all YRFI. Weather is whack tho. Gonna get a read on my impulse control first.
“Fuck Yu” Darvish is without his personal catcher, Caratini (traded), for the first time since middle school. The new pitching coach ain’t screwing around. So tempted to fade Padres 1st 5. Waaay more faith in Bumgarner to have his shit together opening day. Still gonna pass.
Padres traded Chris Paddack to Minny. Me and Paddack had a brief affair. I was in love. It ended poorly. I broke it off.
A reminder, the Padres now have the long time Indians pitching coach. The guy is an acknowledged genius.
I really don’t want to doubt what’s happening today in San Diego with my personal dollars.
I do not understand the total in St Louis with wind blowing out to right at 17mph. Couple ground ball guys but nobody is sharp today in my estimation. Mistakes happen. I’m not the only guy who has weather on my phone so this is some curious shit.
This is a live wagering day if anything. Meh.
LOLakers resting Davis + Lebron + Westbrick versus Golden State tonight.
Local radio was saying the Celtics may tank (tonight?) to get a better matchup in the playoffs. 10 min of aerobics for starter cause long layoff (10 days)
If I have time I’ll look into it but a bit busy. For once, do some work… will ya Simp?
Ok, it looks like all of the Celtics tanking has been priced in. -8.5 Bucks
Now unless you are a aficionado of stupidity wagering I suggest you look away at this point.
Teaser
Golden State Warriors -9½
Milwaukee Bucks -4
Now the risk we run is this:
The Phx Suns (unlike the Lakers) tried hard last night and actually closed a 30 point gap. Chris Paul and the other guys consigned to the uniform of tanking (street clothes and pimp chains) were actually motivating the 2nd string in the huddle during timeouts. The Suns coach was clearly into winning despite the General Manager’s wish.
Ya’ll ain’t gonna see none of that from the Lakers. Little concerned about Celtics but the playoff fix is more important then straight quitting like LeBum & LoLakers
I give and give. I’m like that.
Montreal Canadiens +137
I gave up 5 cents of line value to see goalie confirmation. It’s Jake Allen in net for the Canadiens. He’s not good. That’s being kind. It coulda been worse. Let’s set that aside for the moment
The Canadiens are facing the New Jersey Devils who have been an offensive juggernaut. Piles of dough made on NJD GIFT and 1P overs. They possessed that magical combination of sweet offense and terrible defense. Sadly, Jack Hughes is done for the year with a bad knee. He was their only reason for living. The Devils are terrible and like the LOLakers aren’t in the playoffs. They only scored one goal last game which demonstrates the Hughes absence and its effect.
The Canadiens have a new coach and have played with pride and grit despite being well out of contention. It’s a hockey thing so set aside your NBA notions. They have toppled many great powers., I bet them at +300 against Toronto on many occasions and am making an offer on an oligarch’s yacht come spring.
This tip should hopefully make up for your MLB losses whilst simultaneously appealing to the lottery mentality.
Cheers
I'm better at MLB than NBA betting. Every year I look forward to MLB season for 3 reasons:
1) Big Dodgers fan
2) I have 2 fantasy teams
3) MLB betting
Unfortunately, my opening game wasn't much to get excited about. The Pirates got stomped on 9-0.
However, Tyler Mahle and the Reds currently lead the "World Champion" Braves 6-1, so that one is looking solid. Given that the Reds were +162, that will make for a winning day if it holds.
Mahle is one of the more underrated pitchers in the game, and as I mentioned, struck out 210 last year. I was thrilled to get +162 on him, especially given that Fried got swing-and-miss on just 4 of 84 pitches in his last spring outing. That was going to be my only pick, but I kept looking at the facts that Brubaker looked good in spring, and old man Wainwright had only pitched 2 spring innings. So at the last second, I threw on that awful Pirates play, forgetting that when it's all said and done, they're still the Pirates.
Looking forward to watching the Dodgers on TV tomorrow. I'll try to make it out to a game this month.
2-0
The stupidity NBA teaser cashed without drama
The NHL +137 also won in the awful manner we predicted.
Making Stupidity Wagering great again.
Chicago White Sox -130
ChiSox feast on lefties. Always have. I don’t think anything has changed. Ex Sawks lefty E-Rod on mound for Tigers. Please remove the Tigers from your fail team list though.
You don’t need to get jabbed to bet Toronto RL @ home. Toronto doesn’t need the last at bat.
Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +105 for Game
Sneak peek at your 2022 NLCS Champion. The lowly Athletics - baseball should be ashamed. I swear the Dodgers pay Bauer more than the entire Athletics payroll. Not kidding
The haves vs the have nots is too ridiculous this year to pass up. I will host a remedial lesson on -200 or greater profitable maths to fulfill my community service requirement shortly.
Obviously we will be on the best pitcher in baseball, Scherzer, somehow. Hopefully he isn’t the amped up mental case he is prone to be in similar situations.
Sawks Yankees over is also on my radar. Sticky stuff Cole meh. Two good lineups who know each other too well not to mash.
Last edited by Sanlmar; 04-07-2022 at 10:01 PM.
Twins ml -115.
The kid Ryan is killing it. Named opening day starter over other established vets. Believe the hype there. Baldelli knows the unwritten rules, he wouldn't do that without warrant.
Homerish bet, yes. Still taking the rook over last years CY.
Also a small splash on LAD-COL u11.5
Weather. I know you know but the jump from 90 degree humidity to Minny has gotta suck.
All 5 of his starts last season were in "cold" September weather, outdoor up north. Shrug. Playing some guessing games now until we see some trends.Weather. I know you know but the jump from 90 degree humidity to Minny has gotta suck.
Was going to tail Druff today only on the Cinci pick but got busy with life and didnt bet anything. Sigh
I should post in this thread more. Will try to for baseball now. Hit a nice in-game ML on the oilers the other night when they were down 1-0 to the Sharks after two. In Connor we trust.
I don’t originate my own MLB plays. Here are a list of season long stuff I have in via some sharp fellas
Jays to win East +150
Brewers over 89.5
Gausman AL Cy +2000
Freeman most RBI +3300
Luis Robert over 29.5 HR
Luis Robert AL MVP +2800
J Rodriguez AL ROY +650
Merrifield most Hits +1500
Y Alvarez most RBI +1300
Freeman +3300 is intriguing, but I don't think so.
Last 4 Freeman seasons, games played: 162/162, 158/162, 60/60, 159/162. So the guy has been healthy 4 years straight, and doesn't take many days off.
Dodgers also figure to score a lot of runs. However, the bet does have a downside. Freeman hits second. This is less of a big deal than usual because of the new DH rule, but projected hitting 8-9 are Bellinger/Lux, who aren't exactly OBP machines. Betts is ahead of him, but you're usually driving in the guys who were up 2-3 spots before you.
Did your buddy say why he liked this one? Or just because it's Freeman and the line is +3300?
I actually like Luis Robert MVP at +2800 better. The guy hit .338 last year with 13 HR in 275 AB. He's 24 1/2 years old. Huge talent who could break out at any moment.
Of course, he'll have to outperform Ohtani and Vlad Jr., but Ohtani is injury prone, and Vladdy had two mediocre years prior to 2021. White Sox being good will also increase his chances of winning the award.
Agree with Brewers over 89.5 wins. NL Central is unimpressive. Pirates probably losing over 100 again. Even if Cardinals end up winning division, Milwaukee could easily still win 90+.
Big no on the Gausman +2000.
Merrifield +1500 hits leader is a good one. Was 4th in hits last year, trailing leader Trea Turner by just 11. Played all 162 games. Trea not batting leadoff in 2022.
Thanks for posting these.
Unfortunately none of my books have these futures, except Bovada, which has limited me to $12.50 (you read that right) on props.
So if anyone has any suggestions, I'm open to it.
Look for the Angels to score their first win today after yesterday's disappointing loss.
Reid Detmers is taking the mound for them, who struck out 11 and walked none in 5 2/3 innings of spring games (2 outings).
Mediocre Jake Odorizzi pitched just 2 innings this spring. Yes, both Trout and Ohtani are playing.
Angels -115 (Detmers) vs Houston (Odorizzi)
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