*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[BCR]

So take a look at the NBA recently. I was talking about this before.

Remove the Lakers and other inconsistent failteams. Focus on the good squads.

Look at some of these scores. Utah 96-49 right now over Portland. Phoenix 111-90 over Miami. Minnesota 132-102 over OKC. New York 107-77 over Dallas. Toronto 119-104 over San Antonion.

Now take out the good/decent teams which lost above (such as Miami and Dallas), and we're left with games where we pretty much know it's going to be a beatdown.

I am seeing good teams just absolutely shellack these bad teams, day after day.

I didn't see anything like this -- at least not so consistent -- in previous seasons.

My idea: Look for good teams versus bad/awful ones, bet an alt line where you give up as many points as possible and get a nice dog out the bet, and profit.

Any idea of reputable books which offer the highest paying alt lines like this? We're essentially selling points. Imagine getting a big dog line on Utah crushing Portland. Seems like you could print money.

I was doing this with the Cavs earlier this year and killing it. They won like 6 out of 8 by 30. I tried it a lot last year and it was mostly a fail. I was certainly down. What I found was taking like a Heat or Buck against a decent opponent at like -4 and taking it up to -8.5 +185 was the spot where it worked best. Just have the better team and hope they came to play.

It’s nice to only have to hit one of 3, but I still lost on average. I didn’t pick my spots well. Really have to pay attention to rest and injuries obviously. Not sure it’s beatable at any volume. Just in really selective spots where you get a good line early and take the alt before it moves. Good teams at home on weekends was probably the best spot if all other factors were in place. Young teams that play in party towns like Miami, as they go out too late. Really have to pick your spots.

[Sandwich]

Tonight I got Memphis Grizzlies -14.5 at +180, and waiting on the Morant points total to be released -- will bet it OVER up to 29.5 points.

Morant is 30.5 so no go for me. Instead I got Julius Randle UNDER 24.5 -125

[Dan Druff]

Okay, I'm tired of watching the Lakers lose as favorites and not getting any money out of it.

They're a mess right now. Defense was absolute shit last game, and they lost to the lol Rockets.

Washington +168 at Lakers

[Sanlmar]

Hey Simpdog.

Come April there isn’t going to be an empty seat to found at Gamblers Anonymous anywhere. I have mine listed on StubHub.

Wicked smaht, eh?

[Daly]

The first best time to bet Can Smith to win the Masters was after he didn’t win last year at 40-1

The second best time to best Cam Smith to win the masters was after he bested Jon Rahm earlier this season and his odds dropped to 30-1.

The third best time is right now. He will be trading with a 1 handle by tomorrow.

Can will spend the next few years in that 18-1 range depending on the course along side Rory, X, DJ, Spieth, JT et al.

He has arrived.

[Jah]

The first best time to bet Can Smith to win the Masters was after he didn’t win last year at 40-1

The second best time to best Cam Smith to win the masters was after he bested Jon Rahm earlier this season and his odds dropped to 30-1.

The third best time is right now. He will be trading with a 1 handle by tomorrow.

Can will spend the next few years in that 18-1 range depending on the course along side Rory, X, DJ, Spieth, JT et al.

He has arrived.

I had small money on him to win this tourney at 30-1. Not sure we will ever see him at that number again.

I got him to win the Masters in January at 35-1. I didn't love it then, but it was the best number I could find. I like it a lot more now.

[simpdog]

Hey Simpdog.

Come April there isn’t going to be an empty seat to found at Gamblers Anonymous anywhere. I have mine listed on StubHub.

Wicked smaht, eh?

Preview was today. So boring.

Ottawa vs Arizona no thanks. Going to be a long summer unless someone finds some mlb magic

[NaturalBornHustler]

Had Paul Casey today at +900 and right in the thick of it he smokes a drive center cut down 16 and it rolls into an old ballmark. In the fairway. Yes, a mark the literal size of a ball in a field 40 yds wide. No relief, and it totally derailed him. He was no good after that.

[jsearles22]

Had Paul Casey today at +900 and right in the thick of it he smokes a drive center cut down 16 and it rolls into an old ballmark. In the fairway. Yes, a mark the literal size of a ball in a field 40 yds wide. No relief, and it totally derailed him. He was no good after that.

The PGA rule regarding balls in fairways in divots or previous ball marks is absurd. You aim for the fairways, it’s where you want to hit it. But you have no control over where it stops. If you hit it in the rough/sand/trees/water etc you deserve whatever lie you get. If it’s in the fairways you should get relief from those player made issues imo.

[NaturalBornHustler]

Had Paul Casey today at +900 and right in the thick of it he smokes a drive center cut down 16 and it rolls into an old ballmark. In the fairway. Yes, a mark the literal size of a ball in a field 40 yds wide. No relief, and it totally derailed him. He was no good after that.

The PGA rule regarding balls in fairways in divots or previous ball marks is absurd. You aim for the fairways, it’s where you want to hit it. But you have no control over where it stops. If you hit it in the rough/sand/trees/water etc you deserve whatever lie you get. If it’s in the fairways you should get relief from those player made issues imo.

I tend to agree but the traditionalists would scoff at eliminating "rub of the green". The whole good shots rewarded, bad shots punished mantra of great courses doesn't seem to apply here.

[Jayjami]

Had Paul Casey today at +900 and right in the thick of it he smokes a drive center cut down 16 and it rolls into an old ballmark. In the fairway. Yes, a mark the literal size of a ball in a field 40 yds wide. No relief, and it totally derailed him. He was no good after that.

Dead money. Casey has never won a big tournament, other than one match play event. He wasn’t going to beat mullet boy. Betting him to finish top 10 in majors has some value though. He’s usually up there.

[NaturalBornHustler]

Had Paul Casey today at +900 and right in the thick of it he smokes a drive center cut down 16 and it rolls into an old ballmark. In the fairway. Yes, a mark the literal size of a ball in a field 40 yds wide. No relief, and it totally derailed him. He was no good after that.

Dead money. Casey has never won a big tournament, other than one match play event. He wasn’t going to beat mullet boy. Betting him to finish top 10 in majors has some value though. He’s usually up there.

If his ball doesn't find a pitchmark on 16 he is probably in a playoff with him. It destroyed Casey and gave Cam hope after he snapped it 100 yds into the trees. Casey played it perfectly until that happened.

[Dan Druff]

Denver -6.5 at Washington

[Dan Druff]

Okay... now at 4:40 PDT there is another game, which will be the first I bet this way.

I found BOL has an alt line of +285 on Knicks -20.5.

While the Knicks are by no means a great team, they have won by wide margins in 3 of their last 5 games, all on the road as well!

Portland is getting blown out routinely. The actual line on this game is Knicks -13/-12.5 (depending on the book), so you're basically getting about 3x your money on them winning by 21+ instead of 13.

Does anyone know of any other reliable books which have such lines? The problem with BOL is that this is in the prop section, so I imagine you're paying some kind of shitty juice here, whereas true alt lines might be better elsewhere.

[Dan Druff]

Denver was way ahead almost the whole way and easily covered.

Gonna be close whether or not this NY -20.5 hits.

Was 20 point lead at 3Q end, but presently sitting on 23 with 5 mins left. Trash time can be tough here.

[Sanlmar]

Okay... now at 4:40 PDT there is another game, which will be the first I bet this way.

I found BOL has an alt line of +285 on Knicks -20.5.

While the Knicks are by no means a great team, they have won by wide margins in 3 of their last 5 games, all on the road as well!

Portland is getting blown out routinely. The actual line on this game is Knicks -13/-12.5 (depending on the book), so you're basically getting about 3x your money on them winning by 21+ instead of 13.

Does anyone know of any other reliable books which have such lines? The problem with BOL is that this is in the prop section, so I imagine you're paying some kind of shitty juice here, whereas true alt lines might be better elsewhere.

Fan duel and Draftkings offer crazy alt lines. I know guys who ladder NBA scoring props on the legal sites. 18 pts +100 19 pts +150 20 pts +300 … that concept.

It came as a revelation to me that the legal books offer the most degenerate derivatives and props imaginable. There ought to be a law. LOL. It was counter intuitive to me.

I see no reason why you couldn’t register on one of these sites under you girlfriend of whatever to lurk the alt lines to gain some reassurance about the value being offered by BOL. I suggest this because the bonuses for new user sign up and such might someday be very very tasty for you. Stay a virgin.

Ooops….. I just remembered guys talking about alt line on Bovada. There you go.

[Sanlmar]

When are you going to smash the Lakers? That seems the most obvious alt candidate. Maybe the public is catching up. I hear so much talk.

[Dan Druff]

Okay... now at 4:40 PDT there is another game, which will be the first I bet this way.

I found BOL has an alt line of +285 on Knicks -20.5.

While the Knicks are by no means a great team, they have won by wide margins in 3 of their last 5 games, all on the road as well!

Portland is getting blown out routinely. The actual line on this game is Knicks -13/-12.5 (depending on the book), so you're basically getting about 3x your money on them winning by 21+ instead of 13.

Does anyone know of any other reliable books which have such lines? The problem with BOL is that this is in the prop section, so I imagine you're paying some kind of shitty juice here, whereas true alt lines might be better elsewhere.

Fan duel and Draftkings offer crazy alt lines. I know guys who ladder NBA scoring props on the legal sites. 18 pts +100 19 pts +150 20 pts +300 … that concept.

It came as a revelation to me that the legal books offer the most degenerate derivatives and props imaginable. There ought to be a law. LOL. It was counter intuitive to me.

I see no reason why you couldn’t register on one of these sites under you girlfriend of whatever to lurk the alt lines to gain some reassurance about the value being offered by BOL. I suggest this because the bonuses for new user sign up and such might someday be very very tasty for you. Stay a virgin.

Ooops….. I just remembered guys talking about alt line on Bovada. There you go.

Not a bad suggestion regarding Draftkings/Fanduel. Too bad I can't actually bet with them.

Does anyone here use Heritage? I know they have have a great rep. Do they offer alt lines? I don't want to fuck with any of the shifty or semi-shifty books which either slowpay or fuck people over. And I can look at Bovada (obv I have an account & money there), but their dog lines on everything tend to be complete shit.

When are you going to smash the Lakers? That seems the most obvious alt candidate. Maybe the public is catching up. I hear so much talk.

Trust me, I regret not hammering against the Lakers all season. The few times I did, I ran bad and lost. But yeah, they were an alt-line printing machine if you faded them. Sadly I knew from before the beginning of the season that the team would be a fail, and yet I never capitalized on it.

[Dan Druff]

Anyway my first huge favorite alt line experience was positive.

Knicks won by 30, easily covering by 9.5. I'll be looking at Portland again for this type of bet.

Interestingly, the other two I considered (Phoenix/Houston, SA/OKC) both would have failed. But there's a reason I decided not to do these two. San Antoino is a failteam itself, and I couldn't trust them to blow out even a horrible team like OKC. Houston has been playing better as of late, and has lost by more than 17 only once since February 25. Even against mighty Phoenix, they still only lost by 17, thus failing the -20.5 line BOL was offering.

Of the three candidates today, NY was the only one I liked at a +285-ish line, and indeed that was the only one which covered the 20.5.

[Sanlmar]

For the same reason you didn’t bet any of the 1stP overs today (4-0) I won’t bet the NBA beat downs.

Yet it’s the same season long phenomena for both leagues.

It is very very cool to see someone scoop the chips though, Todd. Love it. That is top shelf wagering.

I would like to read something about this very 2022 development and the writer’s assessment as to why.