Originally Posted by
Kalam
I am grunching most of the last month of this thread, so apologies if this has already been posted.
But Daly, any good CFB O/U's yet?
I posted something a few weeks back. I can tell you what I got but (thankfully for me) most of it got hammered.
Top play per value is/was CJ Stroud to win the Heisman. I got it in as good as 40-1. It’s 16/20 now and the moment they make him the formal starter it’s 7-1. If it turns out the high school kid gets the job (or anyone else) it goes from 200-1 to 7-1 the same way a Clemson/OU/Bama QB would.
I bet some Bama to win NC at +300. Not a ton of value but I can’t see a situation where they don’t make the final 4 and when they do I can’t see them being even money or worse. O won’t be the same but the D will be the best they have had in 10 years, and that’s saying something.
I’m high on UAB. Over 7.5 wins and to win the conference.
I was in South Carolina over 3.5 early and it’s moved to 4 at a lot of places. If you can find 3.5 even at a price I do really think it will be hard to not get to 4 with that schedule.
NC State might be the one team that’s disrespected in gambling circles more than any other team over the past few years. Last year was a straight rebuild and they finished in the top 25. I don’t think they challenge clemson but over 6 feels like a safe bet. It’s moved to 6.5 in some places.
I don’t get Ark St being lined at 3.5 wins. Louisiana got a near unanimous 9 first place votes in the sun belt west division coaches poll. Ark St was picked second and was the only other team with a first place vote. I do see 5 losses on the schedule but I can’t see them not eeeking out 4 after you figure C Ark and ULM and the rest of the coin flips.
The Vols continue to be in neutral. The all world LB transferred out to Bama. I see 4 if not 5 clear losses on the schedule. Getting to 7 seems a lot more unlikely than falling short of 6. Give me under 6 and I’ll hope for the best.
If you like holding your nose and going for it UMASS, who is legitimately awful, total is 1.5 wins. As you might expect there are a ton of games where they have zero chance including week 1 vs Pitt where they are 37 point dogs. They have UConn, URI, Maine and NM St to find 2 wins. I passed in it but there is some respected $$ over 1.5.