Let em do it and it will crash and burn. Half the idiots will be up at the podium this fall trying to explain why despite their best estimations there just wasn’t a demand for -120 bets.Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Let em do it and it will crash and burn. Half the idiots will be up at the podium this fall trying to explain why despite their best estimations there just wasn’t a demand for -120 bets.
Don’t kid yourself, my off-shores want to pahticipate in licensing (maybe delusional) so they will block me and appear righteous.
Meanwhile, the battle & bleeding at the Sportsbook could last as long as Afghanistan. Do you think Wynn Encore will suddenly learn the meaning of P&L?
The podium? The licensing fee is $5 milly. They expect to pull $80m total in fees. That buys a lot of goodwill going forward.
The very definition of a Pyrrhic Victory, Daly
Last edited by Sanlmar; 07-23-2021 at 08:31 PM.
Admittedly low tech approach here but I’ve had some decent luck over the years. Hard part is finding a local guy who is ok with you sending in 5-10K worth of season long bets. Name of the game here isn’t going 100%….. 60% in a bad year is just fine. These are all at or below projection based on a full 17 games played. Safe to say if any of them miss even one game I’d feel very comfortable chalking up a W.
Yards/tackles+Assists - all unders (obviously)
All unders
Mahomes 5100
Ryan 4600
Barkley 1200
Henry 1675
Zeke 1175
Sanders 1100
Jefferson 1400
Toney 475
Wagner 145
Baker 130
Davis 133
Smith 147
Don’t kid yourself, my off-shores want to pahticipate so they will block me and appear righteous.
Meanwhile, the battle & bleeding at the Sportsbook could last as long as Afghanistan. The very definition of a Pyrrhic Victory, Daly
Sorry sir I’m going to pass on the BC +21.5 vs Clemson -120. I will however give you -120 on the BC QB, who has been averaging 360 Yards PG vs Wake Forest and Louisville, for a max bet of under 350.5 Passing yards.
I forgot about unders like Mahommes 5100. Mahommes is offered as the face of load management 2021
Ok, I lied about futures in less than 15 minutes
Mahomes was 100% going to top the equivalent of 5100 last year…… until they benched his ass in the last week of the season for a “meaningless game”.
The lines I posted require the player to have a good season AND play 17 to go over. Taking the under on these is the poker equivalent of shoving vs calling when you on the short stack. When you bet the under you can win a few different ways.
Player gets hurt
A RB o-line breaks down
Coach changes philosophy from one year to the next
Player busted for not taking Covid vax
Any way will do
I just found one local out of the bunch that was still hanging Vikings +180 to win the Norris - I just maxed it
I’m not one to speak ill of pretty much any posted bets. With that said, your Zeke under is very puzzling to me. Care to explain your thinking there? 1175 over 17 games would be WELL under his career averages. In fact his career RYPG goes over 1175 at 13 games so he’d seemingly have some wiggle even if he missed a game or two.
They’ll obviously protect Dak early in the year etc. Zeke supposedly in best shape of his life. He’s vaccinated. I’m admittedly a fish on these props but that one screams over to me.
It's hilarious that we as a society think everyone can be a dr, a lawyer, an engineer. Some people are just fucking stupid. Why can't we just accept that?
I’m not one to speak ill of pretty much any posted bets. With that said, your Zeke under is very puzzling to me. Care to explain your thinking there? 1175 over 17 games would be WELL under his career averages. In fact his career RYPG goes over 1175 at 13 games so he’d seemingly have some wiggle even if he missed a game or two.
They’ll obviously protect Dak early in the year etc. Zeke supposedly in best shape of his life. He’s vaccinated. I’m admittedly a fish on these props but that one screams over to me.
This thread (should be) designed to question bets. I appreciate questions.
The main set of NFL projections I work from call for him to play in 16.5 games and carry the ball 275 times for 1160 yards. this assumes he plays the 16.5 games and has ~4.35 YPC. I’d be careful about taking the earlier years and trying to extrapolate them out 5 years later. One of the reasons why the Cowboys felt ok drafting him fourth overall is they had the NFL’s best O-Line assembled to put him behind. That’s no longer the case, not even close. In addition this Cowboy D was fucking dogshit last year. They didn’t get any better this year. Teams that are down 14-0 at the end of the 1Q tend to abandon the running game.
The over reaching thing here is this could be one I lose. I’m not staking my life on this one bet. But I’m willing to wager, because there are a few ways to win and a semi flawless season to beat me.
Agreed, plus Pollard is a stud also. DAL gonna run Zeke hard, cause they are paying him, but that line is not what it was.
This thread (should be) designed to question bets. I appreciate questions.
The main set of NFL projections I work from call for him to play in 16.5 games and carry the ball 275 times for 1160 yards. this assumes he plays the 16.5 games and has ~4.35 YPC. I’d be careful about taking the earlier years and trying to extrapolate them out 5 years later. One of the reasons why the Cowboys felt ok drafting him fourth overall is they had the NFL’s best O-Line assembled to put him behind. That’s no longer the case, not even close. In addition this Cowboy D was fucking dogshit last year. They didn’t get any better this year. Teams that are down 14-0 at the end of the 1Q tend to abandon the running game.
The over reaching thing here is this could be one I lose. I’m not staking my life on this one bet. But I’m willing to wager, because there are a few ways to win and a semi flawless season to beat me.
I am debating finally trying the "all under" strat on yardage futures this year. Go under on like 40 of them.
Dallas finished with the 27th ranked o-line last year according to PFF. But they are ranked #6 going into this season. Why is that you ask? La’el Collins, Tyron Smith, and Zack Martin played little to none last year. They are all 3 back and considered healthy. To say this line was decimated in 2020 would be an understatement. 3 fresh future hall of famers and 2 solid young guys in Connor Williams (6th best run block score among guards) and center Biadasz who had the highest run block win rate among all centers with 81%. Mike McCarthy known for O-line and so is Joe Philban.
This thread (should be) designed to question bets. I appreciate questions.
The main set of NFL projections I work from call for him to play in 16.5 games and carry the ball 275 times for 1160 yards. this assumes he plays the 16.5 games and has ~4.35 YPC. I’d be careful about taking the earlier years and trying to extrapolate them out 5 years later. One of the reasons why the Cowboys felt ok drafting him fourth overall is they had the NFL’s best O-Line assembled to put him behind. That’s no longer the case, not even close. In addition this Cowboy D was fucking dogshit last year. They didn’t get any better this year. Teams that are down 14-0 at the end of the 1Q tend to abandon the running game.
The over reaching thing here is this could be one I lose. I’m not staking my life on this one bet. But I’m willing to wager, because there are a few ways to win and a semi flawless season to beat me.
I’d sprinkle some Zeke o1500 +500 or better if I could find it
It's hilarious that we as a society think everyone can be a dr, a lawyer, an engineer. Some people are just fucking stupid. Why can't we just accept that?
Dallas finished with the 27th ranked o-line last year according to PFF. But they are ranked #6 going into this season. Why is that you ask? La’el Collins, Tyron Smith, and Zack Martin played little to none last year. They are all 3 back and considered healthy. To say this line was decimated in 2020 would be an understatement. 3 fresh future hall of famers and 2 solid young guys in Connor Williams (6th best run block score among guards) and center Biadasz who had the highest run block win rate among all centers with 81%. Mike McCarthy known for O-line and so is Joe Philban.
I’d sprinkle some Zeke o1500 +500 or better if I could find it
Zeke most rushing yards +1300
The 3M is going to be won by someone going super low. Matthew Wolff sits 5 back. He has the potential to post super low scores. If he can avoid matching bogeys with the birdies he could be a long shot. Pretty good spot to get it in at +6000 IMO.
Due to split tees on Saturday he will also be the first off. Chance to throw something crazy out in the morning wave.
It's hilarious that we as a society think everyone can be a dr, a lawyer, an engineer. Some people are just fucking stupid. Why can't we just accept that?
i thought this was so cute and pithy when that strongly worded statement from the NFL came out...
'jerry we're gonna have you forfeit your game against the redskins cause half your team has the 'rona'...
'billy bob, we didn't make you forfeit anything for getting a rub and tug, but cam and the boys have the C-19, so you're just gonna have to take the L here'...
let me kno how that one goes, rog...
I don’t think anyone is forfeiting. My intuition about the dollars tells me that’s unlikely. They do have 3rd string players and a practice squad. Large guys who drive the Zamboni.i thought this was so cute and pithy when that strongly worded statement from the NFL came out...
'jerry we're gonna have you forfeit your game against the redskins cause half your team has the 'rona'...
'billy bob, we didn't make you forfeit anything for getting a rub and tug, but cam and the boys have the C-19, so you're just gonna have to take the L here'...
let me kno how that one goes, rog...
We need to stop working around Covid. It’s a fact of life, and not a temporary or passing condition. Maybe the NFL is an example of a business that has adapted. Billy Bob has prolly already figured this out.
What I was suggesting was the element of increased variance for us to face - especially with futures. They continue to increase. Previously, we waited til everyone was fine. Not now. You play whatever you can round up.
Last edited by Sanlmar; 07-23-2021 at 11:34 PM.
Anyone have any Olympics bets? China to win most medals? Fuck China but it is a reasonable bet.
SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798
PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL
Jj Watt under 7.5 sacks
This thread ain’t political except as on how it impacts wagering
Yesterday i was having a cocktail up in the woods at camp and put the TV on. I knew woman’s soccer already lost. Then the US woman had a crew/rowing team. They lost. They were waxing poetic about a 39 year old doctor from Boston, a “great story”.
The whole time I’m thinking there is some 23 year old at Harvard/brown/ivy who is a downing bad ass who is leading her team on the “head of the Charles”. Sure the 39 year old is a “great story” but is this the best we got?
Really feels like politics have got in the way for the US.
agreed on all accounts...I don’t think anyone is forfeiting. My intuition about the dollars tells me that’s unlikely. They do have 3rd string players and a practice squad. Large guys who drive the Zamboni.
We need to stop working around Covid. It’s a fact of life, and not a temporary or passing condition. Maybe the NFL is an example of a business that has adapted. Billy Bob has prolly already figured this out.
What I was suggesting was the element of increased variance for us to face - especially with futures. They continue to increase. Previously, we waited til everyone was fine. Not now. You play whatever you can round up.
however i do wonder about your first point...yup there's the third stringers, practice squad guys, guys that were trying to make it from the XFL but when would the networks say 'fuck this shit', we paid $X billions for patrick myhomes, christian mccaffery, etc, not for some guys from some DII schools...ratings plummet and they get real fucking pissed...kinda like the 'load management' shit from the NBA...
too much money is at stake...ESPNs ratings from what i understand are already in the shitter...dont think they can afford to put a shitty NFL product out there...
unrelated note...texas and oklahoma to the SEC?
i understand all the money yadda, yadda, but it just seems wrong...bama/florida, bama/lsu, florida/tennessee, florida/georgia, bama/auburn, etc...the old school SEC rivalries built upon years and years of friday night lights and suitcases of money...oklahoma/flordia? seems wrong and weird, but it's the direction we are headed i guess...
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