It’s a pass for me but there is zero chance i lay the -190.Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
I have a add
Finau >31.5
He’s never finished worse than 27th
It’s a pass for me but there is zero chance i lay the -190.
I have a add
Finau >31.5
He’s never finished worse than 27th
THE COST OF NFL DATA IS SOARING AND SPORTSBOOKS ARE NOT HAPPY
https://www.legalsportsreport.com/53...-data-dispute/
Edit
Legalized wagering is not the answer you were looking for.
Last edited by Sanlmar; 07-12-2021 at 06:17 PM.
Really interesting. I'll try to remember to discuss this on radio tomorrrow.
Reminds me a lot of the monster TV deal the Dodgers got with Time Warner (now Spectrum), which was 7 years ago, but still resonates today. Many LA-area providers still don't carry the Dodgers channel, because Time Warner demanded $5 per subscriber to carry the channel, in order to make up for their own bad deal.“Just because [Genius] made a bad deal, does not mean we are going to bail them out,” said the source.
Genius basically did the same thing, overpaying for the rights to distribute NFL data, and now feels obligated to overcharge the books for the data, in order to remain viable.
Oops.
I think the article is overstating the importance of in-play betting. If I ran a book, I'd probably just take the in-play data, cough up the 6%, and be done with it. The 4% for the pre-game data is LOL, because as the article says, the books basically just copy each others' lines nowadays anyway.
An error being made in the legalized betting market is not understanding the small margins in which sportsbooks operate, if they are to be able to offer 10-cent lines.
If the gubbmint is gonna suck up a healthy chunk of the profits, and then they have to also start coughing up big $ to the leagues and the data providers, there's not going to be much money left for the books.
The solution? 15 and 20 cent lines, obviously.
And that forces any winning sportsbettors (or at least those with the serious aspiration to win) back to the offshore books.
I understand that everyone needs their cut, if legalized betting is going to be a thing, but it shouldn't be at the expense of sportsbettors, who are already paying enough juice to where the vast majority can't beat it as it stands. Double the juice and we just get really bad carnage.
as somebody who lives in a state that has legalized sports betting i will say the books dont seem to be hurting for profits...
i dont know how many KC +75 or DAL/LAC game total OVER 75 bet specials they offer per year at either $25 or $50 a pop, but it's fairly substantial...probably to the point where you could grind out a nice Christmas/Hanukkah/Festivus for your family over the course of a year...
with that being said i do agree with san...i think ive mentioned this...ive had my limits laughably cut on certain bets on a couple of books where im 100% not in profit...i havent had the time or the give-a-shit to inquire as to why, but the fact they are cutting limits of losing bettors is fucking retarded beyond belief...but hey kudos to one book for letting me bet what i want on whatever i want...
I'm guessing they cut your limits because they perceive you're making +EV plays, even if you've lost so far. Same reason I've been kicked from some casinos when card counting in blackjack, despite being thousands down.
The limit cutting thing is going to come home to roost soon enough, though. It's nothing new, of course, but sportsbetting used to be something which kinda hid in the shadows -- a sinful thing people knew existed but didn't think or care about much if not involved.
Now that it's getting legalized all over the country and rolled into the mainstream, we have a lot of noobs who don't quite understand how it all works, and the vast majority have no idea that books treat "good" bettors better than ploppy bettors.
If word gets around that books are limiting anyone with a clue, the optics will be really bad. First, it will look unfair. Second, those who aren't limited will take a hard look in the mirror and think, "Wait, why aren't they limiting me? Am I really that bad?"
Most sportsbettors -- including recs -- operate under the delusion that they're skilled, and that only bad luck is keeping them from success.
This has already started.I'm guessing they cut your limits because they perceive you're making +EV plays, even if you've lost so far. Same reason I've been kicked from some casinos when card counting in blackjack, despite being thousands down.
The limit cutting thing is going to come home to roost soon enough, though. It's nothing new, of course, but sportsbetting used to be something which kinda hid in the shadows -- a sinful thing people knew existed but didn't think or care about much if not involved.
Now that it's getting legalized all over the country and rolled into the mainstream, we have a lot of noobs who don't quite understand how it all works, and the vast majority have no idea that books treat "good" bettors better than ploppy bettors.
If word gets around that books are limiting anyone with a clue, the optics will be really bad. First, it will look unfair. Second, those who aren't limited will take a hard look in the mirror and think, "Wait, why aren't they limiting me? Am I really that bad?"
Most sportsbettors -- including recs -- operate under the delusion that they're skilled, and that only bad luck is keeping them from success.
Draftkings lost ~500M last 12 months. They do this by offering .10 lines AND refunding Rham betters when we caught Covid and other “player friendly” promotions. What’s not being talked about is how much more they are limiting players.
Right now we are in the Moneymaker years of sports betting. Things got bad a few years ago but everything has relaxed again as public companies are fighting for market share more than profitability. In another 1-3-5 years the pendulum is going to shift and things will rapidly change once these companies need to show a profit vs expansion of market share.
In about 3 years .15 cent lines will be the standard. Might be some promotions or if you a cherry punter you may “qualify” for .10 lines.
Many Local books will continue to offer .10 lines to complete along with the existing cash settlement elements of the business.
The tragedy is the big reputable off shore books want to join the fray.
There is no reason for anyone of substance to cater to the dime business. Those that do come with the hidden “you aren’t getting paid” tax.
For example, Betanysports is prolly 5Dimes undergoing sanitizing and sterilization for US licensing.
Vegas is a monument to the fact that the public can’t do math or just doesn’t care. Recreational gambling is not a crime and is fun for most. Recreational wagering on sports will be huge enough to sate the corporate gambling biz. RIP Benny Binion and his kind.
I have predicted the demise of the Golden Age of Sports Wagering. I’m prepared now to sign the death certificate
Despite appearances, I don’t NEED to sports wager. I haven’t set foot in the Boston Encore, for instance. Or any of the other new casinos. I hate losing more than I like gambling.
I just had a random flashback about paying time for poker at Foxwoods when it was the biggest room in the US. Sigh. More rake is better, I guess
Last edited by Sanlmar; 07-13-2021 at 11:29 AM.
But wagering on the All Star Game IS responsible gambling.
Over 10.5 -120 and 11 even
Good pitching beats good hitting…… unless it’s in the thin atmosphere of the moon that is Coors where your shit doesn’t “bite”. Hot weather too. I don’t know if it’s humidor balls or not.
Ohtani might get wacked around too but the YES 1st inning is -150 and above. Someone might talk me into it though.
Last edited by Sanlmar; 07-13-2021 at 11:41 AM.
I just looked again and the over is running away from you.
Wonder if there is news about balls.. maybe they leave them out in the sun Nicky.
Mrs Daly and I are headed to Vegas in 2 days. I found out that “all tables” strip or freemont at all $15 min in the mornings and $25 at night. MGM all craps tables were $50 on Fri and Sat.
My guess is we hit the tables early one day in old Vegas and hope for some $10 limits…… if we don’t get them I’m perfectly willing to send the better half to the spa and hit the poker table.
Early morning $5 or $10 craps with the old timers makes me so so happy.
I have found it to be a universal phenomenon almost every where I go. The retired guys seek out a bargain and are up at 5AM anyway. They will likely know each other and trash talk and kibitz. Craps is the only team sport in the pits.
I will ask a floor man or pit boss if there is a regular crew like that and which table (or casino if they will tell)
It’s still a loser but it’s fun. A couple of hundred can last for hours
Geez, I want to be the over in the ASG, but 11 runs seems insane. Anyone betting this one?
I have way too much money on The Open already…… and I may not be done yet.
Wait til you get a load of the 6:5 blackjack almost everywhereMrs Daly and I are headed to Vegas in 2 days. I found out that “all tables” strip or freemont at all $15 min in the mornings and $25 at night. MGM all craps tables were $50 on Fri and Sat.
My guess is we hit the tables early one day in old Vegas and hope for some $10 limits…… if we don’t get them I’m perfectly willing to send the better half to the spa and hit the poker table.
I dumped $400 on the under, 11. I have never bet on an ASG in my life, fuck I have not watched one in years. I went to the one in Houston years ago, left in the 4th inning. Dumb game.
So as I mentioned I am headed to LV and when I get there I’ll be shopping for one bet that I know is available. I’m invested through some locals and via an offshore but I want another 1K-2k down so long as I can get the right price. The bet I’m looking at is as low as +700 and as high as +4000. I think the +700 is much much closer to being right and these 20/30/40 to one prices are way way off. I’ll share as soon as I’m invested.
I have shopped week one and there are a few I really like. I tend to think the value is finding teams that are way better than people think or teams that are going to be really really horrible and bet them for value in weeks 1-4. Admittedly it becomes much more difficult to find winners in week 5 and after, although I’ll try my best.
I think Tenn will be much improved this year at least to being a mid tier SEC team. It’s been a rough few years for the Vols and I think a blowout on opening night on nationwide primetime will be a feel good moment. Bowling green may be the worst team in the NCAA this year. I’m going to repeat that. BOWLING GREEN IS GOING TO BE FUCKING AWFUL. Like the best kid in your local high school 20 team conference gets to go to tenn sit 3 years and maybe earn the right to play after adding 30 lbs of muscle and 3 years of experience and practice. All the BG starters are brand new true freshman and were at best the 20th best kid. They are going to get run the fuck over. 32 won’t be enough - Tenn could win this by 80 if they want too.
Alabama is going to kill Miami. I know what Bama lost on O. They have good talent to backfill. Wont matter because the Bama D might be the best we have seen to date. This team is going to kill people, again. Happily lay the 17.
NC St -17.5 can play this game from both ways. USF is hurting. They aren’t trash level like BG but they need a rebuild. NC State Will be that ACC team this year that surprises people. As I already said I think NC state sails over the 6 win number.
Tulane will be sneaky good this year. This is OU’s chance to win a Natty. If the later is going to pan out they will beat Tulane by more than 22.
I’m not buying the G Tech hype. I am however convinced that this is the worst No Ill team since before the days of Jordan Lynch. They won’t be worse than Bowling Green, but they aren’t good. Tech -16.5
Been a while since anyone has said this but Rutgers will be decent this year. Not good, but a decent mid level Big Ten Team. Temple will be the worst AAC team. They have a lot of work to do. Scarlet -13
Florida State is a sleeping giant. They cleaned up on the transfer portal. They could easily clip 10 wins this year.
Florida State is a sleeping giant. They cleaned up on the transfer portal. They could easily clip 10 wins this year.
No shot
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