*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[Sanlmar]

Dead men walking on Cleveland/Seattle RHE under 24.

My Bieber suspicion proved true, I think. Cleveland offense typically impotent too.


Woulda been a sweet +200 Seattle dog.

I have trouble doing a handicap and arriving at a bet then shutting my brain off on that game. There are multiple solutions to the puzzle. I find something I like and on a game and move on while ignoring other courses of action.

We cannot ignore fading the SpiderTack crew. Those bargains will only be there for a turn thru the rotation or two.

I want to be a better person, I really do.

[Sanlmar]

Shit, I knew we had this chat before.

You don’t listen to me and neither do I.

Deserve to lose this one. We move on

[Jah]

I had taken Detry at +1000 going into the final round last week on the Euro Tour. I’m glad I didn’t post it. He came in tied for 2nd and lost to a guy who was destined to win at a big number sooner or later, Armitage. Armitage shot 7 under and it was all over. Detry & Pieters are two young Belgium guys who have beautiful swings and just can’t seem to break through.

Kicking myself for not taking Larson on the road course +850. Figured too much could go wrong. It didn’t. Not going to be much value on him going forward. He’s the top driver with the top team right now.

As for the PGA this week, this is a tough venue. I put some money on Brooks at 10-1. I see him around 8-1 in most places. I have concerns. He is in the late wave and I can see if he doesn’t play great to start him taking a quick jet out of there after the morning wave Friday. But if he plays well and sticks around, you know he will be playing to win. I wouldn’t take him at less than 9-1.

Trendy pick, but I had to put a few bucks on Higgo at 50-1. The courses he won on in the Euro Tour are not even close to what he’s dealing with here. But I don’t want to miss the boat if he really is becoming a special player.

I have SY Kim at 9-1 on the LPGA. She’s won here before and I just feel likes it’s time.

This post brought Higgo to my attention, as no one else caught my eye this week. TYTY. Quite honestly almost cashed it out this morning for 2.5x.

[Daly]

Just came here to re read Jeff’s post…. I thought I remembered he backed Higgo.

Excellent excellent call. Well done

[Kalam]

Daly,

you got any college football season win totals you like yet?

[Daly]

Daly,

you got any college football season win totals you like yet?

Not yet - but won’t be long.

I did buy some bama For title at +300. It’s been all about video game offensive numbers the past few years but this bama D might be the best in a long time. Figure Bama always makes the dance and once there +300 will be cheap.

[Dan Druff]

Sucks that I was right about Gilbert but wrong about Bieber. Doesn't help anything when you have an RHE bet going.

At least the Padres won.

[Dan Druff]

Gone cold in these RHE, but I like this one a lot.

Tampa Bay (Glasnow) at White Sox (Lynn) - Under 23 RHE -115

[Daly]

Sometimes you try and beat them, sometimes you try and join them.

This is a join them week for me.

Rham +1100

Edit: I’m also playing Grace at +12500

[Sanlmar]

Gone cold in these RHE, but I like this one a lot.

Tampa Bay (Glasnow) at White Sox (Lynn) - Under 23 RHE -115

Glasnow Cole & Bauer were the spin rate topic du jour in 2018. Nickyballs and the Tampa papers said Glasnow was organic - he just tweaked his release point. Right.

These are all good pitchers but there is going to be some adjustment as we have seen.

Good luck.

I’m taking the Jays (Menorah) +121 vs Red Sox (Eovoldi). Also doing the 1st 5 +115 cause there might be weather.
Red Sox are right up there with the Dodgers when spin rate is discussed by team. What’s interesting is Sawk’s Cora has stated he can’t get involved with this issue given his criminal record. Sawks are so fucked with pitching.
As I mentioned in MLB thread, Eovoldi has seen his spin rate drop. Jays are just crushing the ball. Vlad is simply the best hitter in the game atm period. He is scaring my Ohtani MVP future

Cardinals 1st 5 -125

So there are two plays that should allow you to afford to indulge old data. I applauded the RHE unders angle when it was first promoted here. It was the bet for the .220 MLB with a no-hitter every night. That was 3 weeks ago. Nostalgia works on PFA not sports wagering

I got a smattering of RHE overs including Dodgers as an experiment.


As a free bonus ..... you think Buehler without goo will revisit his blister problems? I do too. Maybe he gets a note from his doctor?

[Sanlmar]

Just saw Jeffdime’s Higgio score. He made a case, bet it and it hit.

Impressed.

Entertaining to follow but I am not mentally strong enough for golf. Weak mind

[JeffDime]

Just saw Jeffdime’s Higgio score. He made a case, bet it and it hit.

Impressed.

Entertaining to follow but I am not mentally strong enough for golf. Weak mind

Thanks San.

In all honesty I wouldn’t recommend it to anyone. This year has been rough. You know going in that Golf will break your heart. It’s best when it’s just a misfire when you lose and there is no pain. The amount of 2nd, 3rds or equity favorites going into or during the round Sunday that haven’t worked out has definitely taken a toll on me.

Even if you just compress those numbers down to real legitimate winning chances (Throw out bets like Brooks losing by 4 to Morikawa at concession that is technically a 2nd place) the variance of a few of those not cashing for big money really sucks.

It is part of the deal when your fishing for big game. But JFC it is painful. It just seems I have minimized most of my wins and maximized most of my losses lately.

The LPGA has just been a huge disaster for me this year. Those two big bets on J and Lydia Ko when they were the equity favorites going into Sunday that didn’t materialize really hurt. A lot of random winners that were almost impossible to have on all three of the LPGA, PGA & Euro tours this year.

I think the LPGA experiment will be put to a close. So tough and value sucks. Going to focus more on the men’s tours. I’m sure this will mean you will see the Kos and Sei Young win a lot going forward.

Back to business, I agree with Daly that Rahm is the guy to beat this week. DJ started to pull the ball again like he did back in the Genesis. The price sucks, but I understand why it’s there. May wait a day or two because I don’t see Rahm’s price going below 10-1 as the public will start looking for value elsewhere.

[JeffDime]

Just a quick note on Koepka. He was playing well Tee to green last week but once he starting missing every putt he clearly made the decision that he was not going to mess around with the knee and stopped getting down to read the putts. He was knocking putts by the hole 7 or 8 feet and smiling.

As a guy who had money on him of course this pissed me off but it was something I was sure could happen. He rather miss the cut if he is out of contention, especially a week before a major. He is not a guy who hits it dead that much. His proximity to the hole is not elite and he will for sure have to putt much better this week to have a chance. He also isn’t a guy who seems to go super low. That is part of the reason he is so good in majors because pars are good.

Going to wait at least a day to bet, but even with the missed cut you can’t sleep on Brooks here. Question is, can he get down and read them with the knee?

Just a real problem this year in general is how much stats, recent form and even past performance has not factored in. Guys have just come from absolute nowhere to win. Golf is a streaky game but this year that seems ring even more true. JT can hit one dead from 260 yards for a tap in Eagle and then drive it into the parking lot the next shot.

[Sanlmar]

Cincinnati Reds +120 for 1st 5 Innings

Big pitching mismatch but Milwaukee getting love from those who shop brand names

I see Sizzle down there. I have KC & SDG in a +188 parlay
Kansas City Royals -144

[padre33]

Notre DaMe -150 very good hitting team against bottom of rotation.
Cubs +124 Cubbies playing well and prefer Arrieta over Peterson getting plus money.
Padres -155 Rockies best pitcher but a really bad team. Padres not hitting well hoping yesterday and a happy plane ride gets them going
Sixers-2.5 they are imposing their will. After Doc challenged Simmons he is looking to push and create as much as posssible

I like Canadiens and Islanders both as dogs in the hockey series

[Daly]

Back to business, I agree with Daly that Rahm is the guy to beat this week. DJ started to pull the ball again like he did back in the Genesis. The price sucks, but I understand why it’s there. May wait a day or two because I don’t see Rahm’s price going below 10-1 as the public will start looking for value elsewhere.

The smart move after picking chalk is to keep my trap shut. He wins he is supposed to win. He plays like an asshole and misses the cut I look like a jerk.

I don’t have to tell you about the ebb and flow of player form and how guys just naturally cycle up and down the player list. Remember last year when DJ decided he was back and went into GOD mode? Unless I miss my guess I think we going to see Rham do something similar over the summer. Feels like he has cleared any hurdles he had in his way and all his top level piers are having issues in some form or fashion.

Maybe I’m wrong but I guess we shall see. I got this feeling if you bet him at 12/10 -1 for the next 15 weeks he’s going to bink 3-4 of them.

[Daly]

Couple of adds to the US Open cart

Rory > 21.5 -125

Grace > Westwood -120

I think Rham > Rory is about as good a matchup spot as you can get but it’s already -170….. need to think about this one.

[JeffDime]

Back to business, I agree with Daly that Rahm is the guy to beat this week. DJ started to pull the ball again like he did back in the Genesis. The price sucks, but I understand why it’s there. May wait a day or two because I don’t see Rahm’s price going below 10-1 as the public will start looking for value elsewhere.

The smart move after picking chalk is to keep my trap shut. He wins he is supposed to win. He plays like an asshole and misses the cut I look like a jerk.

I don’t have to tell you about the ebb and flow of player form and how guys just naturally cycle up and down the player list. Remember last year when DJ decided he was back and went into GOD mode? Unless I miss my guess I think we going to see Rham do something similar over the summer. Feels like he has cleared any hurdles he had in his way and all his top level piers are having issues in some form or fashion.

Maybe I’m wrong but I guess we shall see. I got this feeling if you bet him at 12/10 -1 for the next 15 weeks he’s going to bink 3-4 of them.

Cant disagree with any of that. The way Rahm played Rounds 2 and 3 at the Memorial was the best golf I’ve witnessed in years. He has all the tools to be the top guy for many years. It would make sense for him to break through here. This may be a time where I just hold my nose and swallow the price.

He has no weaknesses and his quick swing has very little that can go terribly wrong mechanically like it can with Rory or a lot of other top guys. He can get steep and push the ball a bit sometimes, and that’s nit picking. He doesn’t make many doubles or crooked numbers. If he putts anywhere close to how he did at the Memorial, he should be lights out.

He also can grind out a tournament or crush one. He can go super low one round or put together 4 solid rounds. I’m hoping he floats up to 11 or 12 -1. But it’s time for him to grab that mantle. Totally agree.

[Sanlmar]

I could not have played this any better. Runline +165

Kenley Jansen. Druff knows the pain I feel.

Dodgers 3-1 top of 9th

[Sanlmar]

That really was an amazing Dodgers bullpen performance from the 4th inning. 6 relievers NO RUNS

I talk some shit but the bullpen numbers are now respectable if not admirable

Tonight I heard the Dodgers have had the most IL days in the MLB.