*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[Dan Druff]

Okay, so let's look at a good RHE one for tonight. Dodgers/Astros

I'll use the H9 (hits per 9 inning) stat in place of BAA, which are very similar.

Bauer has a sparkling 4.4 H9
Luis Garcia of Houston has a 6.5 H9, and a good H9 rate in his time in the minors over the past few years.

The line is 25 for RHE.

Astros do lead MLB with a .269 team BA, which is very high for 2021. Dodgers are above average with .247.

However, Bauer should neutralize that somewhat, and I think 25 is too high.

Unfortunately, I stupidly typed this up before betting it, and it moved from -130 to -145 on BOL in the past few minutes, so I guess great minds think alike. But if you can find it at 130 or better on another site, go for it. I won't be betting it unless I find that line though.

[Dan Druff]

It's -120 on Bovada which is a great deal, so jump on that while you can

https://www.bovada.lv/sports/baseball/mlb then select "Total Runs Hits errors" from dropdown near top.

[Sanlmar]

Bauer, who was the canary in the coal mine on the Astros scandal, is pitching tonight for the Dodgers. Ironic b/c Dodgers chose to ignore the warnings explicitly delivered to Friedman.

Blogging Bauer is gonna be all over this for publishing material. He’ll also blow out his arm if need be for the justice story line . Dave Roberts will let him.

You will all receive a one day pardon if you take the Dodgers.

We all live vicariously through Bauer.

[Dan Druff]

Here's a "1st 5" moneyline for you.

Pittsburgh (Crowe) +105 vs. Cubs (T. Williams) - FIRST 5 INNINGS

In his last 4 starts, Trevor Williiams hasn't made it through 5 innings. In his last 8 starts, he never pitched into the 6th. His ERA is almost 6.00, his WHIP is 1.779. He had one good year (2018), and since then has been garbage.

This is a great "first 5" game to bet.

Sanlmar, this Bud's for you.

[Dan Druff]

I've got an NBA playoff pick tongiht.

Philadelphia vs Washington - Under 229

[Daly]

Here's a "1st 5" moneyline for you.

Pittsburgh (Crowe) +105 vs. Cubs (T. Williams) - FIRST 5 INNINGS

In his last 4 starts, Trevor Williiams hasn't made it through 5 innings. In his last 8 starts, he never pitched into the 6th. His ERA is almost 6.00, his WHIP is 1.779. He had one good year (2018), and since then has been garbage.

This is a great "first 5" game to bet.

Sanlmar, this Bud's for you.

Feeling degen tonight.

Took this, under 25.5 LAD HOU and Under KC TB 23.5

[jsearles22]

Here's a "1st 5" moneyline for you.

Pittsburgh (Crowe) +105 vs. Cubs (T. Williams) - FIRST 5 INNINGS

In his last 4 starts, Trevor Williiams hasn't made it through 5 innings. In his last 8 starts, he never pitched into the 6th. His ERA is almost 6.00, his WHIP is 1.779. He had one good year (2018), and since then has been garbage.

This is a great "first 5" game to bet.

Sanlmar, this Bud's for you.

Feeling degen tonight.

Took this, under 25.5 LAD HOU and Under KC TB 23.5

Neither pitcher in the KC vs TB has been particularly good recently. I’m on the o7

[padre33]

NBA- Wizards +8.5, Knicks -2

MLB- Reds +130, Padres -113, Padres 0ver 8 -105, Tigers +115. Tigers under 9.5 -110, Braves +130, Dodgers under 8.5, Rays over 7-105

NHL- Lightning -145 close out day Simp, Wild +125

[NickyPipes]

You whine and bitch like a woman! I don’t play penny stakes, let’s bet 4 figures or is that above your cry baby bankroll?

Wish I would have saw this earlier. I would not have bet $1000+ (yes, that is in fact above my bankroll) but I would have done $400 to your $1000

I would not have done this! You would have had to put up 4 figures at least to bet with Pipes! I know you are a drunk driver and I don’t respect that so I would have wanted you to feel the bitter sting of a loss of what I can assume for you is a weeks pay!

[Daly]

Feeling degen tonight.

Took this, under 25.5 LAD HOU and Under KC TB 23.5

Neither pitcher in the KC vs TB has been particularly good recently. I’m on the o7

[Dan Druff]

Well I'm 2-0 in these RHE bets, but couldn't get much down on this one.

I hit my Philly under in NBA, despite a bad 2nd quarter, and Pittsburgh stunk it up, so that one lost.

Becoming a fan of these RHE bets though. You just gotta hit 'em early, as the line moves quickly on BOL, and it doesn't take much action to do it.

[Daly]

Well I'm 2-0 in these RHE bets, but couldn't get much down on this one.

I hit my Philly under in NBA, despite a bad 2nd quarter, and Pittsburgh stunk it up, so that one lost.

Becoming a fan of these RHE bets though. You just gotta hit 'em early, as the line moves quickly on BOL, and it doesn't take much action to do it.

When you in a market where they limit the stake and the lines are sensitive chances are you are in something that’s exploitable. Line shopping becomes important just like the player prop market.

Last night I saw the LAD HOU line as high as -140 but I also was able to find -110 on the Sunw@ger skin, and this as late as 1.5 hours before first pitch.

[Dan Druff]

Another RHE.

Detroit (Boyd) vs. Cleveland (Bieber) - Under 22 R+H+E -105

Game lined at 6.5 runs at some books!

Boyd has a nice 7.5 H9 so far, and Bieber is at 8.2, which should be trending lower.

[Dan Druff]

Here's an MLB over for you. Game 2 of a doubleheader.

Colorado (Senzatela) at Mets (Lucchesi) - OVER 5.5 -130 GAME 2 DH (7 innings)

[padre33]

Cubs, Padres big, Tigers, early..

Royals, Nats, Giants later

[Sanlmar]

Another RHE.

Detroit (Boyd) vs. Cleveland (Bieber) - Under 22 R+H+E -105

Game lined at 6.5 runs at some books!

Boyd has a nice 7.5 H9 so far, and Bieber is at 8.2, which should be trending lower.

I appreciate the work you’re doing here. You did a nice write up of your handicap the other day too.


I love this for all the reasons you stated about today’s MLB.

Cardinals even $ vs the dreadful Diamondbacks? C’mon. All you can eat.

While we are at it..... Can you find any 1st inning props on BOL? They definitely have a new contractor for their live & prop service. Not happy tbh. They are afraid of action.

[padre33]

Another RHE.

Detroit (Boyd) vs. Cleveland (Bieber) - Under 22 R+H+E -105

Game lined at 6.5 runs at some books!

Boyd has a nice 7.5 H9 so far, and Bieber is at 8.2, which should be trending lower.

I appreciate the work you’re doing here. You did a nice write up of your handicap the other day too.


I love this for all the reasons you stated about today’s MLB.

Cardinals even $ vs the Diamondbacks? C’mon. All you can eat.

While we are at it..... Can you find any 1st inning props on BOL? They definitely have a new contractor for their live service.

I 2nd that. Good pick on Philly under yesterday. I really think Sixers have a chance to win whole thing.

Looks like you'll be getting a nice rib eye from Ruths Chris on me Druff

[JeffDime]

Speith was the last betting favorite to win outright in a while on the PGA tour. Making it look like he may do it in back to back tournaments where he is the 10-1 or so betting favorite. He has missed one putt from inside 20 feet all fucking day.

[Daly]

Royals rays under 24.5
Angles As under 25

[NickyPipes]

You whine and bitch like a woman! I don’t play penny stakes, let’s bet 4 figures or is that above your cry baby bankroll?

Wish I would have saw this earlier. I would not have bet $1000+ (yes, that is in fact above my bankroll) but I would have done $400 to your $1000

Never in doubt, the Rays win another series and Pipes cashed another series bet. Was not bluffing on the 4 figures bet! Glad to bet Rays against Royals any day any amount! Great teams win series! Was glad they lost the first game so I got a sweat this time, it’s been smooth sailing and it will continue to be but it’s fun to ride a few waves now and again!

Looking at the Phillies this weekend, hopefully the Rays can get a good price against the overrated and talent wasting Phillies! No series bets as it’s a 2 game weekend series (weird), but hoping for some nice game prices, as I anticipate continued domination by TB!