*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[Daly]

Fleetwood finally shot a decent first round number. He is now +750 from +1100 (+1200). He still shot -1 on the easier 9 and -4 combined. I do still like him around +800 or better. He did what he had to do Day 1 but is capable of much more. I’m optimistic on this one.

My Rory bet on the PGA has been tilting. Bet MGM has him a +950 from +800. Rahm even moved up. Typically favorites don’t float up like this but the weather, adding that unknown variable, may be the reason. Either way, prices on Rory and Rahm are better now. So if you jump on the Rory train late you will have better equity at most books.

Jesus Hatton really Took the week off eh?

[Daly]

So I’m sticking with my guys but if anyone decent stands out on the south course, which is magnitudes harder than the north course, they may be worth a stab overnight.

[JeffDime]

Pretty live in 3/5 three balls. The ploppeyer ones. Hovland, X and Louis. If we can hit those three we make a little over a unit. Varner shit the bed and Rickie is playing ok but Reed is too strong. These matchups/three balls are almost more about the opponents they are matched up with, then the actual golfer. I should of just kept this ploppy week.

[JeffDime]

Fleetwood finally shot a decent first round number. He is now +750 from +1100 (+1200). He still shot -1 on the easier 9 and -4 combined. I do still like him around +800 or better. He did what he had to do Day 1 but is capable of much more. I’m optimistic on this one.

My Rory bet on the PGA has been tilting. Bet MGM has him a +950 from +800. Rahm even moved up. Typically favorites don’t float up like this but the weather, adding that unknown variable, may be the reason. Either way, prices on Rory and Rahm are better now. So if you jump on the Rory train late you will have better equity at most books.

Jesus Hatton really Took the week off eh?

Fuck him. You got woody playing his tits off.

[JeffDime]

Pretty live in 3/5 three balls. The ploppeyer ones. Hovland, X and Louis. If we can hit those three we make a little over a unit. Varner shit the bed and Rickie is playing ok but Reed is too strong. These matchups/three balls are almost more about the opponents they are matched up with, then the actual golfer. I should of just kept this ploppy week.

Looks like need Louie to hang on to prevent the scoop. Lanto just caught fire and Hovland stalled. X I thought was the strongest play against Phil & Spieth. Very disappointing on the NC especially. Hitting the showers.

[Daly]

It’s early and the south course is where dreams go to die, but damnit Reed does fit the profile of the type of
Person who would win.

Palmer and Malnati pricing will be interesting overnight.

[Daly]

I wonder if the south course is tougher?

[Dan Druff]

Two picks today. One is a ploppy pick, one is not.

Ploppy pick:

Houston -4.5 vs Portland

Portland is a disaster right now, with no Nurkic, McCollum, and Covington. Houston is at full strength with its regulars.

Non-ploppy pick (starting 4:35pm):

LA Clippers at Miami - Under 212

A shitload of major players out. Clippers missing George, Kawhi, Beverly. Miami missing Butler, Dragic, their own Leonard, Igoudala, and others.

[nightmarefish]

Two picks today. One is a ploppy pick, one is not.

Ploppy pick:

Houston -4.5 vs Portland

Portland is a disaster right now, with no Nurkic, McCollum, and Covington. Houston is at full strength with its regulars.

Non-ploppy pick (starting 4:35pm):

LA Clippers at Miami - Under 212

A shitload of major players out. Clippers missing George, Kawhi, Beverly. Miami missing Butler, Dragic, their own Leonard, Igoudala, and others.

I also took the under in the Heat game.

[nightmarefish]

I wonder if the south course is tougher?

Ya, you think lol? I’ve played both courses several times, not sure how many strokes I’d put on it but there’s a significant difference.

[Dan Druff]

Great when the ploppy favorite actually scores zero point zero points in the first 3:38.

[Dan Druff]

BTW I confused starting times, so Miami is still open if anyone wants it. Game starts at 5:05 PT.

[Dan Druff]

I might have to swear off these public ploppy picks, even when I like them. Houston looks so bad. Super sloppy basketball on both ends, plus terrible shooting.

Getting killed 25-8 in the first 8 minutes by an injured Portland team is embarrassing.

[4BET]

Great when the ploppy favorite actually scores zero point zero points in the first 3:38.

Yes getting crushed in the early going

[nightmarefish]

Lillard shows up for the nationally televised games.

[Dan Druff]

Lillard shows up for the nationally televised games.

I was a bit worried about this, but today it's more of a matter of the Rockets NOT showing up.

[Dan Druff]

Okay, nice 15-2 run here for the Rockets. Finally they're playing. Back within striking distance.

[4BET]

Houston roaring Back!!!

[Dan Druff]

Okay, I've been wavering on this one all day, but I've decided to fire.

Phoenix vs. Golden State - Under 219.5 (Booker out)

(Note - Bovada has 220 right now)

[Dan Druff]

Bovada really is such trash. They have me down to tiny limits because they perceive me as a sharp.

I have $25 for props (thanks Daly), $50 for MLB, and $100 for NBA.

Once I get past that limit, they have to "review" each bet, and of course each review takes time so they can fuck me if the line jumps. Anyway, I was able to get four of these $110-to-win-$100 bets down on under 220 Suns, and suddenly the line fell to 219.5, so I probably single-handedly moved it.



What a joke book.