First time I bet against the Pats in several years and probably the last. This team is superbowl bound if they play defense like they did tonight. Bet against the GOD of coaching and I deserve to lose. I'm also cursed on picks I post as of late since I took Clemson a couple nights ago and they covered.
Sorry for the Brissett loss guys. I'll do better.Originally Posted by Daly
Looks like we have company aboard.... All the way down to +3/+125 now
I just got down in La Tech at +170/175. I mean I do make MTSU the favorite here but at 1.7-1 I think it's a decent bet. 3-4-5 points ain't going to mean shit in this game. It's going to be high scoring.
Might get a good line to bet against them next week.
What a heartbreaker.
I bet triple units (something I rarely do) on Colorado because I loved the value so much. Bet 1.4 units on Milwaukee +100, too.
Milwaukee won first, so I was happy for the moment.
Then Rockies break out 3-0 in the 2nd. Even happier.
Then Rockies are up 4-1 after 5, and I'm still happy.
Two horribly played balls make it 4-2 in the 6th, and then came the assfucking in the 7th. Walt Weiss left Boone Logan in to pitch when he couldn't throw strikes. Gave up a single and walked 3 straight batters. STILL left him in to face Yasmani Grandal, and.... BAM... grand slam. 7-4 Dodgers. Ended up the final.
So frustrating. My 3 bets averaged out to almost +190, it would have been like winning 6 -110 games in a row, had this held.
Fucking joke to lose this way. Why leave a pitcher in like that to flail when he can't throw strikes? Guess the Rockies just don't give a shit.
I think I saw that game closed at like +230 too , What was up with all the line movement there?
No idea... and sadly I was pretty much right with my bet, and horrible managing fucked me.I think I saw that game closed at like +230 too , What was up with all the line movement there?
Sorry for the Brissett loss guys. I'll do better.
never noticed this before, nate silver runs quant on sports: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...ex_cid=rrpromo
Teaser: Utah +3½ / U51½
Taking one more shot against the Dodgers today, despite how they broke my heart yesterday. This is only because Scott Kazmir, coming back from injury, has not had any minor league rehab starts, and admits he had discomfort during a 35-pitch bullpen session 3 days ago! This start has FAIL written all over it. Jon Gray looked excellent last time out.
Also going back to my bread-and-butter and taking the Phillies, who have a +133 line behind Hellickson, who has been very dominant over his last 2 starts. He faces Gabriel Ynoa, a rookie reliever who has never gone more than 4.3 innings this season.
Philies (Hellickson) +133 at NY Mets (Ynoa)
Colorado (Gray) +155 at Dodgers (Kazmir)
Warning: Both Hellickson and Gray threw CG shutouts last time out, which may affect their stamina.
You just broke more rules of teasing in one play then should ever be allowed.
Never cross zero.
Never tease a total
Absolutely positively never tease a total over 55
You just broke more rules of teasing in one play then should ever be allowed.
Never cross zero.
Never tease a total
Absolutely positively never tease a total over 55
I used to bet teasers a lot back when they were viable +EV bets in NFL. I miss those days.
Teasers are actually very -EV in most cases, but there is an opportunity in football (especially NFL) to take advantage of them if odds are good enough.
The basic premise is that you want to cross the "3" and the "7" with a 6-point teaser. So you would tease from -7.5 to -1.5, or +2 to +8. If your teaser bet is not "crossing" both 3 and 7, don't make it.
Of course, the reason for this is the common scores in football games often being separated by 3 or 7 points (since those are the amounts a team gets for a field goal and touchdown).
You don't tease totals because they cannot take advantage of this 3/7 factor.
You are also preferably looking for low total games when teasing the sides. This is because you want the extra 6 points you get to be more meaningful, which it is more likely to be in a low scoring contest.
Furthermore, you should avoid teasing teams which have a tendency to get blown out, as the 6 points will be meaningless in those situations. Ideally, you will tease a team which frequently finishes close to the spread.
You should also stick to NFL for teasing, rather than college.
However, even if you do all of the above, teasers are still -EV unless you get a proper line for them. You want +300 for a 4-teamer, +180 for a 3-team teaser and +100 for a 2-teamer. You won't find these lines on any reputable books anymore.
And never tease college football!!You just broke more rules of teasing in one play then should ever be allowed.
Never cross zero.
Never tease a total
Absolutely positively never tease a total over 55
2-1 Phillies early.
To be honest, neither pitcher looks good so far. Both teams have blown scoring chances already.
Ugh.
Just like yesterday.
Phillies up 3-1, pitcher stops throwing strikes, no one takes him out, 6 runs score.
Well, they took him out after 3 runs scored, then the reliever gave up a 3-run HR.
If Rockies can win, I still can win today.
I've had so many leads blown in past 2 weeks.
Ole miss -7 is a steal, book it while it's still at -7
"Druff would suck his own dick if it were long enough"- Brandon "drexel" Gerson
"ann coulter literally has more common sense than pfa."-Sonatine
"Real grinders supports poker fraud"- Ray Davis
"DRILLED HER GOOD"- HONGKONGER
Iowa/Rutgers U56
GL
Purdue -5.5
Oconnor u18.5
Oconnor under 243.5
Mckenzie under 107.5 -125
Engrahm under 120.5
Francois under 25.5
Francois under 305.5
Flowers under 264.5
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