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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #5341
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Ulis (kentucky) o 8.5 asst+reb is good.

  2. #5342
    Serial Blogger BeerAndPoker's Avatar
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    It gets repetitive to say but Curry so clutch.

  3. #5343
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker View Post
    It gets repetitive to say but Curry so clutch.
    I had the under in that game, which was WAY on pace to win, and then got fucked by the OT.

    Why didn't OKC just hold the ball and let themselves get fouled, when up two with 11 seconds left? Huge boneheaded mistake.

    I did get off a +140 GS bet going into the the 4th quarter of the game. Oddly enough, a single three-pointer changed that to +300, so I wished I had bet then. I didn't want to compound it with another bet at that point. However I did consider firing +900 when they were down 11 with like 6 min left, knowing how GS can come back quickly at times.

  4. #5344
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by big dick View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    "I got a guy" telling me that if you can get better than +450 on Toronto to win the Eastern Conferance it's time to fire.
    Bet $ 357.14 to win $ 2,499.98 Result: Pending
    2015/2016 NBA Eastern Conference - Odds to Win
    Toronto Raptors 06/01/16 20:30 EDT +700
    Bovada is +550 on this.

    Would love to find a 7-1

  5. #5345
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    Odds for the spurs to win it all?

  6. #5346
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker View Post
    It gets repetitive to say but Curry so clutch.
    I had the under in that game, which was WAY on pace to win, and then got fucked by the OT.

    Why didn't OKC just hold the ball and let themselves get fouled, when up two with 11 seconds left? Huge boneheaded mistake.

    I did get off a +140 GS bet going into the the 4th quarter of the game. Oddly enough, a single three-pointer changed that to +300, so I wished I had bet then. I didn't want to compound it with another bet at that point. However I did consider firing +900 when they were down 11 with like 6 min left, knowing how GS can come back quickly at times.
    yeh, I had that game under as well - even in ot we still had a shot, but they scored like it was an all star game in ot....such a sick beat when you watch the replay.

  7. #5347
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Boston bet to win the east?

    Cavs looking awful lately, Toronto looks super inconsistent.

    I could see Boston stealing it. What prices are you guys seeing?

  8. #5348
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Boston bet to win the east?

    Cavs looking awful lately, Toronto looks super inconsistent.

    I could see Boston stealing it. What prices are you guys seeing?
    See 8 to 1 on vegasinsider

     
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      Sanlmar: Bird is the word.

  9. #5349
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    So...

    I almost took a huge dick up the ass and suffered perhaps my worst sportsbetting beat ever.

    I had Under 116 in the first half of the OKC/SAC game. The bet started off great, with just 18 points scored in the first 5 minutes.

    Unfortunately, the scoring rapidly picked up, and at one point in the mid-2nd, it looked like my pick was toast. Then scoring slowed again, and it appeared it would be a photo finish.

    I went into the final minute with a total of 106, so I was in pretty damn good shape.

    I was in even better shape with 1.2 seconds left (and the ball being inbounded). The total was 112. What could go wrong? The only thing I could imagine would be a 4-point play involving a three-point attempt (with the basket being made) and a foul. Not only was this fairly unlikely to occur in 1.2 seconds, but even if it did, I would still walk away with a tie.

    I could not picture a way I could possibly lose this.

    Yet I came fairly close to doing exactly that.

    Rajon Rondo took too long inbounding the ball, and got called for delay of game. It was the 2nd Sac delay of game, so that was an automatic technical. Durant made the free throw. Now it was a 3-point game, and a tie was unfortunately much more possible, but a loss was still pretty unlikely (though not nearly impossible as it had been before the T).

    So I tempered my frustration with, "Well, at least I probably won't lose."

    Then it happened. Another delay of game technical on Rondo! I've never seen this before in my life. Now it became a 2-point game, and a loss was very possible.

    Fortunately Sac missed the final shot, but it was a decent look, and I dodged the bullet.

    Just wow.

    Even when I win, I run bad.

     
    Comments
      
      Daly: Red rep for dragging the pot and complaining
      
      varys: and for all of these woulda been/ shoulda bet shitposts. Sorry druff
      
      Hockey Guy: sports betting is all about the win & you won so stop complaining. All the better IF you can get a good sweat & still win.

  10. #5350
    Diamond chinamaniac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Even when I win, I run bad.
    How is running bad if you won?

    Either u win or lose. What happens in between does not really matter unless you are using that info for other games.

  11. #5351
    Gold Charham's Avatar
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    I like an App called Flashscore. Its free and provides real time scoring on pretty much every sport and team around the world. druffs story reminded me that i personally don't like to sweat the games (other than football or when live betting) so prefer just to see scoring updates now and then.

  12. #5352
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Got a PGA guy who is always picking long shots to win and more often than they should they seem to end up in the top 10..... He's due to nail one so I'm tailing him so long as the price is right....

    Let's give another dog a shot this week..... Team: Risking / To Win Ticket#:
    STRAIGHT BET Mar 03 PROP GOLF - WGC CADILLAC CHAMPIONSHIP - WINNER
    [72032] MARC LEISHMAN +7000 142.00 USD / 9940.00 USD

  13. #5353
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    What is up with that Atlanta Golden State total?

    225 ---> 213.5

    Edit:
    Curry ankle.

    Still watching

    edit:
    249245984
    NBA[511] ATLANTA v GOLDEN STATE o213-110 RISK $132.00 TO WIN $120.00

    can't be worse than Brooklyn LA
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 03-01-2016 at 06:04 PM.

  14. #5354
    Plutonium big dick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Got a PGA guy who is always picking long shots to win and more often than they should they seem to end up in the top 10..... He's due to nail one so I'm tailing him so long as the price is right....

    Let's give another dog a shot this week..... Team: Risking / To Win Ticket#:
    STRAIGHT BET Mar 03 PROP GOLF - WGC CADILLAC CHAMPIONSHIP - WINNER
    [72032] MARC LEISHMAN +7000 142.00 USD / 9940.00 USD
    im in gl
    03/01/16 21:06 EST
    Bet $ 28.57 to win $ 1,999.90 Result: Pending
    WGC Cadillac Championship 2016 - To Win (Others available on request)
    Marc Leishman 03/06/16 11:30 EST +7000

  15. #5355
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    What is up with that Atlanta Golden State total?

    225 ---> 213.5

    Edit:
    Curry ankle.

    Still watching

    edit:
    249245984
    NBA[511] ATLANTA v GOLDEN STATE o213-110 RISK $132.00 TO WIN $120.00

    can't be worse than Brooklyn LA
    Igoudala out too.

  16. #5356
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Anyone know what was up with the betting on Portland today?

    Opened at 4 on the road against NY, which seemed like a great spot. Line jumped to 5.5. Then a ton of money came in for NYC throughout the day, bringing it to -4.5 -105.

    Scared me, and I didn't bet it.

    Portland crushed as expected.


  17. #5357
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Druff will tell you about the winning bets he was thinking of making but didn't.

    I'll tell you about a bet I actually made that won - but I shouldn't have.

    I just wanted to watch some basketball on a slow night. I really want to get engaged with the Warriors story and the NBA. I didn't even know the 2 stars were on the bench. I just saw the line action and assumed it was mispriced. I was just degen'ing a little interest for myself.

    It took OT to clear the Warrior Hawks over by one friggin point. Yeah, I am ashamed.

    I was still pausing and fast forwarding through that crap - even with a bet. Dreadful.

    Adam Silver & David Stern approve of sports betting cause they know it's the only reason any sane person would sit throught that shit. Reminds me of Jai alai frontons in Florida back in the day. Jai alai was just a fast paced game (that NOBODY understood) that served as an excuse for pari-mutual wagering. David Stern sees the NBA the same way. He's right.

    The NBA is now just a confederacy of millionaires. They are all pals from AAU. They never learned to hate each other in college.

    No pride. No hate. No rivalries. Nothing better exemplified that than the All Star game. It was like a alumni lunch.

    I grew up with mid & late 80's NBA. Isiah Thomas, Lambeer, Bird, Magic, etc. These guys warred since college. They hated each other. Even in the All Star games it was game on. Trash talk and fists.

    I could give two shits about the Warriors. The old school Bulls would wipe the court with these guys. Such is today's NBA.

    Time for NCAA.

     
    Comments
      
      DRK Star: applause
      
      varys: Agree with all but the end. Warriors -3 on neutral court vs 97 Bulls
      
      IAmProfessionalTalk: ^agree with my man varys here
      
      big dick: great post

  18. #5358
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    I am done with the degen NBA

    Preseason baseball Tigers v Yankees

    Ticket #
    249566245 MLB[911] NY YANKEES Action EV Risking $100.00 To Win $100.00

    Tigers bullpen pitching BP. Nothing changes

     
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      IAmProfessionalTalk: even money on a fair coin flip rep

  19. #5359
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    varys: Agree with all but the end. Warriors -3 on neutral court vs 97 Bulls
    IAmProfessionalTalk: ^agree with my man varys here

    Gonna ask a dumb question.

    IAPT what are you running when you pronounce what the right price is? The above, for instance. Maybe the 97 Bulls is just an opinion but in other instances you say something to the effect, "the correct price should be x"

    I remember cmoney put together skunkworks for simulations or some such shit.

    Care to talk about this?

  20. #5360
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    varys: Agree with all but the end. Warriors -3 on neutral court vs 97 Bulls
    IAmProfessionalTalk: ^agree with my man varys here

    Gonna ask a dumb question.

    IAPT what are you running when you pronounce what the right price is? The above, for instance. Maybe the 97 Bulls is just an opinion but in other instances you say something to the effect, "the correct price should be x"

    I remember cmoney put together skunkworks for simulations or some such shit.

    Care to talk about this?
    For contemporary stuff I have models which get regressed to market based on their relative suckitude.

    For 1997 Bulls time machine stuff I don't actually have a number but I could come up with something I'd be confident gambling on if the opportunity presents.

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