*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[Daly]

ZoD and I had a long exchange earlier today on a different matter. At the end I shared with him my Hot takes on the upcoming football season. I figured I’d share (some of this isn’t new)

BC over 5.5 was stealing (seeing 7 now), BC +15.5 vs Clemson in the game of the year is a buy,BC vs Umass -18 week 1 is a buy - think I’m going to be backing BC a lot early on this season.

FSU will be hard pressed not to win at least 7 games... really can’t see them not doing it.

UCLA won’t win 6 with that schedule

OHIO U will win the MAC - over 8.5 is good, but most seem to like under

Boise Boise Boise Boise, blue turf, blue turf..... I get it. But put me down for Fresno State in the Mountan West.

If you can find Auburn week one -2.5 buy it, will be 3 by kickoff if not already

Big Ben under 4450 passing yards is “lockish” - done it once in 15 years

T Gurley might go over 1350 yards but give me the under all day long. In today’s NFL it’s just incredibly hard to do.

Kamura Under 950 rushing is a play, over priced by 150 yards

D Watson led the league in fantasy points in the half season he started, buy in fantasy and for MVP

By week one of the Presason I have a list together for OROY..... this year I don’t have a good feel for anyone. None of the QB really stand out.

[Tellafriend]

So what is the GOY?

[Daly]

So what is the GOY?

“Vegas” (i think it’s the south point, but if someone knows for sure I’d love to hear it) picks out a handful
Of games in weeks 2-12 of the NCAAF season for people to bet on, AKA “game of the year”. I’m not suggesting BC vs Clemson in week 11 will be the “game of the year” to watch. I’m saying that anything over 2 TD is worth betting because I’m expecting the betting public’s opinions to change by the time the game rolls around.

[hongkonger]

So what is the GOY?

We are all the goys.

[Dan Druff]

I bet Cody +114 tonight.

[simpdog]

Yankees +105. Price folds in the playoffs I feel the same today.

Seattle -145. Jays on a little streak but let's face it they are awful.

[Sanlmar]

Yankees +105. Price folds in the playoffs I feel the same today.

These first 2 plays you don’t overthink. There are fundamental rules of wagering that you must follow if you like money over the long haul.

You’re getting plus money on Cole vs a rookie, Buehler, in August

MOBILE - BASEBALL - MLB - 929 HOUSTON ASTROS +105 FOR GAME

Astros Dodgers should be the Sunday Night game not Sawks Yanks

Rule 2: You autofade Price in playoffs or vs Yankees especially if you get plus money. The Yankees batters are gonna be knocking the manager’s door down trying to get in the lineup.

MOBILE - BASEBALL - MLB - 927 NEW YORK YANKEES +101 FOR GAME

The last one is a bit trickier. I like the recent Indians news too. It’s cheap Wade Miley imo

MOBILE - BASEBALL - MLB - 910 MILWAUKEE BREWERS -109 FOR GAME


Good to see you in action Simp

[Dan Druff]

Slumping lately.

Starting at 1:10pm PDT

Detroit (F. Liriano) at Oakland (Cahill) - Under 8.5 -119

[Charham]

Well I have been basically doing just a few sides, ML and RL, and then choices I feel really strong about, I just wait to live bet. Seems to be working very well. I load up pretty big bets on the live bets, since I am getting reduced odds but I only bet picks I feel very strong about and the game is unfolding in my favor. makes for some swings, and only good reliever teams do I go for.

[unchainedghost]

Well I have been basically doing just a few sides, ML and RL, and then choices I feel really strong about, I just wait to live bet. Seems to be working very well. I load up pretty big bets on the live bets, since I am getting reduced odds but I only bet picks I feel very strong about and the game is unfolding in my favor. makes for some swings, and only good reliever teams do I go for.

Kind of been doing the same

Also been betting e sports for zero reason at all. That needs to stop

[Sanlmar]

Well I have been basically doing just a few sides, ML and RL, and then choices I feel really strong about, I just wait to live bet. Seems to be working very well. I load up pretty big bets on the live bets, since I am getting reduced odds but I only bet picks I feel very strong about and the game is unfolding in my favor. makes for some swings, and only good reliever teams do I go for.

I am a menace to the thread and myself lately

I was almost motivated to review my history today. Laziness prevailed but I know I am having more success live. It’s like the difference between poker where you get to see your cards before betting versus pit games where you bet before the action starts.

I have way too much attitude and prejudice pregame. It’s a leak.

Keep up the success live and hurt ‘em bad, Charham

[Dan Druff]

Boston (Pomeranz) at Toronto (Stroman) - Under 9.5 -120

[Dan Druff]

The Boston under loooking pretty good in the 8th.

All day I've considered the Angels under.

But I can't pull the trigger. Jacob Turner is just awwwwwwwwwful, and he even sucked in the minors.

I can't in good conscience bet that one.

[Dan Druff]

3-1 at the end of 7.

Boston hangs 4 in the top of the 8th, and now it's 5-3. JD barely hit a 3-run shot.

So once again, it's gonna be close. I have one more run that can be allowed in the final 1.5.

This also sucks because now I can only win if the bottom of the 9th is played, so the game going from 3-1 to 5-3 the other way has created another 0.5 innings of play.

[Dan Druff]

Lost in the bottom of the 9th. Unbelievable.

3-1 after 7 in an under 9.5 game is an extreme favorite to win.

It's definitely gotten tougher to pick these unders, but I've also run really terrible in most of the close ones.

[garrett]

The odds go thin come end of year/playoffs

The edge is thin except for the end of season mismatches.

[Sanlmar]

Lost in the bottom of the 9th. Unbelievable.

3-1 after 7 in an under 9.5 game is an extreme favorite to win.

It's definitely gotten tougher to pick these unders, but I've also run really terrible in most of the close ones.

Positively no regrets losing this.

Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 914 Boston Red Sox/Toronto Blue Jays over 5 -115 for 1st 5 Innings

First, this was Pomeranz starting for the Sawks. You were incredibly lucky to even be in the game. Despite your fluky Pomeranz luck, he was awful.

We have been through the Pomeranz thing a dozen times. He has cost you money before. Fortunately for you, he is probably never going to start again for the Sawks. He was that bad today.

Next, the Sawks middle relievers are not good.

At best they are sorting things out. I choose to think Dombrowski failed to address post season relief. This has been his MO since Tigers Scherzer/Verlander

Dombrowski is 1-11 post season. Those kind of results you earn. Kinda like the Dodgers, right?

The Sawks post season pitching has the potential to be a heart attack. Meanwhile they will come from behind against the trash opposition.

[Sanlmar]

The odds go thin come end of year/playoffs

The edge is thin except for the end of season mismatches.

There are times I think Druff approaches games from the perspective that neither starting pitcher (or staff) is as bad as they appear. He perceives value in these spots.

You will rarely see him plant himself in the midst of two Aces squaring off.

I thought the Dodgers under was two good pitchers who had recent quality starts pointing toward even better results.

MOBILE - BASEBALL - MLB - 930 LOS ANGELES DODGERS/OAKLAND ATHLETICS UNDER 8 -110 FOR GAME

Manaea was excellent in his latest start, holding the Blue Jays to only one run in six innings, leading to the win to lift his record to 10-7. The third-year right-hander has been the A’s best starter this season, sporting a 3.38 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in 141.1 innings logged on the year. He held the Dodgers to only two runs in five innings in a 4-0 loss earlier this season in his first career meeting against L.A. Manea is showing great control, walking only two batters over his last three starts.

Rich Hill will get the starting nod for the 16th time of the season, eying his fourth consecutive Quality Start. Hill was sharp in his previous start, limiting the Brewers to only two runs (one earned) in six innings, resulting in a no-decision in a 6-4 Dodgers’ win. The 6-foot-5 veteran left-hander has been excellent in three straight starts, and he features a solid 3.63 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP

Both relief staffs were quality.

MOBILE - BASEBALL - MLB - 926 HOUSTON ASTROS/SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS UNDER 7 +112 FOR GAME

Keuchel v Bumgarner

Enough said

There are plenty of good spots. Lotsa tough mismatches too


Good pitching generally trumps good hitting.


I am not without sin. I did some bad things today too.

[Charham]

Week 1 NFL Line’s out. Pretty much every game is less than a three point spread. Need a CMoney appearance here for a bold week 1 pic! Anyone else here reading the tea leaves?

[Charham]

Another day, and no MLB pics. 3-4 interesting road teams, I will load up on live depending how the pitchers start off. But I am not coming close to pulling the trigger before. Kershaw and Arrieta at home in their prime were getting -300, now much lessor pitchers and teams on the road seem to be getting -300. Can't make money on that except to start taking the other side for value.