Boutier fucking done after 6 holes and I’m not exaggerating. JFC.
Boutier fucking done after 6 holes and I’m not exaggerating. JFC.
Let's talk spring training betting, where there may be an opportunity.
I think big dogs could be of value in spring training -- but with a caveat.
The advantage to taking big dogs in the spring is that starting pitchers usually don't go more than 3 innings -- and often less than that. Additionally, there are some fail relievers brought in who have zero point zero chance to make the team (or MLB ever), and are just being given some pseudo-MLB experience so the team can look at them a bit better. These pitchers will sometimes get bombed and decide the game. They appear for all teams. This brings on an unpredictability which does not exist in the regular season, where typically all pitchers are MLB quality.
So when you get a team for +180 or +200 in the spring, that can often be great value.
The caveat? There are split squad games where the underdog team barely has any MLB players on the field. There are also games where all or most of the stars are being rested on the underdog team, while the favorite team has most of its regulars. That's how you see weird lines like KC -180 (which won, by the way).
It's also not particularly easy to get lineups in advance, in many cases.
Oh, and there's caveat #2. Big favorites are somehow doing well this year in the spring, from my casual observation. Additionally, the Dodgers (10-3) and Orioles (10-2, and leading right now) are crushing it, and they're often among the big favorites.
But I might play with this a bit and start my MLB betting early.
I'll say one more thing about MLB.
The sport is much easier to bet in the first 2 months. Then it gets significantly harder.
Advanced pitching metrics such as spin rate, velocity, and CSW (called strikes / whiffs) can give you an idea of which pitchers are throwing well, and which are either in decline or starting slowly. As the season wears on, these metrics become less important, as you have a much better idea how everyone is looking (as do the books). But this allows you to fade a good pitcher from 2023 with declining metrics, or to back a sleeper who seems to be on the rise.
While my picks will always be "1 unit" for record keeping here, I might bet bigger during the first 2 months.
I'll try to post some of the metrics I'm using when I post baseball picks in the early regular season, as I did last year.
Kings +2.5
We must cherish the good times. Even if for a few holes.
pepperdine -9.5
Very last minute:
NHL
Toronto vs Boston - Under 6 -113
when I saw this at 7.15, I went to get some live and I could find it. Just got the U5.5 -102 and it was only 1 min in. What happens that the game starts 20 minutes late?Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Anyway Good luck Mr. Druff.
spurs +11
That was easy. We just needed a scoreless 3rd period.
EZ game
Never a doubt
Pepperdine was up 56-9 at half
Druff, this man deserves a special notation by his name. Keep em' coming doc.
Druff, this man deserves a special notation by his name. Keep em' coming doc.
This
Dr has been on fire.
Entering boxing match in a few hours today.
Anthony JOSHUA versus Francis Ngannou 6pm eastern time Friday (today)
Has anyone bet on this yet?
elon-3.5
heat +8.5
Orlando at New York - Under 204.5
There are currently 22 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 22 guests)
Reply With Quote
