I know san has the fucking DTs and lord only knows what the hell is going on with simp but think he might be ok since he has seemed to come to jesus with stock market gambooooooooling...
anyway found this interesting...
premise...lay the over 2.5 goals (buy the under 2.5 goals) on matches where the price is substantially in favor of over 2.5 goals for the game and then sell out as you get the time decay and look to be flat the position by 20' into the game...basically looking to lock in 20-30% profit on initial stake...
I am going to attempt to do a small sample test on this with tomorrow and Thursday's games if I remember to fire up my live betting...not really worried about shit going right because we are expecting it to, more trying to see what happens when shit goes wrong and you get that early goal and you have to bail outta the position...also trying to see how big the decay of the over is in the higher priced over games (inter-Brescia and man city-Liverpool) if there isn't a goal scored quickly...
GA is absolutely empty these days. I don't even show up any more.
Really hope the major leagues start up. Could find some edges, maybe more upsets due to shorter seasons/lack of preparation?
Stock market is going okay for me still off all time highs but chugging along.
Like the content here, will keep an eye on it.
first game in the books...
not overly impressed with the pricing that im seeing...the betfair markets that this guy was trading in seemed night and day as far as how dynamic they were compared to my DK live betting...my prices probably moved one time per 5 minutes...was expecting it to be a little more than that...but game 1 is profitable...will do the example calc for it after I finish collecting the data for the other games...
next two in the books...
interesting two games...bologna-Cagliari went exactly how we would want it to go...notice how that price really starts to accelerate in our favor between 15' and 20'...
the inter-Brescia game is very interesting...Ashley young scored at around 4:30 so just as we would have started to take off a little...but notice the price change between 5', 10', and 15'...you get a fucking MASSIVE spike in the over from -250 to -770 at minute 5 and then the bottom just falls out at minute 10 to -530 and then again at minute 15 to -455...they scored a PK at right around the 20 minute mark so that's pretty much all she wrote, but very interesting to see that price action when a goal is scored very early on...
got the data from today's games...scratching my head a little...but will post when I get the chance to do a writeup...
this might work really well in the betting markets like betfair has in europe, but in the live betting markets it seems to be a bit of a dud...
NBA Silver talking about a broadcast delay because no crowd noise and swearing gonna be loud and clear.
There goes in-game wagering if it comes to pass.
Silver, more than any commissioner, understands how how bread is buttered so will be interesting to see how this develops. In-game is the ONLY reason anyone would watch NBA
Dollars are still locked up tight
Everyone wants to hear the players shit talk live, but 98% of people are not prepared for what that shit talk would really be.
It would honestly make this place look like a chapel. It's not a thing you can just bleep as it comes, it's a torrent of sexual preference jokes in a deep sauce of n-words, on its best day.
Anyone see value live Rocket Mortgage golf?
Hubbard +2800?
Edit
Webb Simpson +180 v Ricky Fowler
Need some Blue Jays futures $
Last edited by Sanlmar; 07-03-2020 at 10:18 AM.
Ricky Fowler recovering from terrible blisters from too much practice.
Simpson lips out a 5’ putt to give Sanlmar a loss. Lol, WTF. Got it in good
Fowler falling apart
Same shit Simpson +290 @ hole 8 vs Fowler
Loss
Can you give me a ride to GA Monday, Simp?
Last edited by Sanlmar; 07-03-2020 at 11:04 AM.
Mls soccer
NE
Montreal
Over 1.5 live bet +100 at half.
Pound the under. Aside from the Patriots, it's very tough to win even 2 SBs in a decade in the era of parity. Of the teams that did it, none of them had the highest paid QB in the league the year they won because you need money to pay a supporting cast.
Mahomes is fantastic but a big part of what he does is create with his feet and as we've seen time and again, those guys get hit and they do not hold up as well as classic pocket passer types. Mahomes was hobbled by his ankle already last year.
If Mahomes plays out that whole contract without restructuring or renegotiating and is actually paid the full headline-grabbing number I'll give you $503M.
Finally, let's not forget, let's NOT forget Dude, they are coached by Andy Reid.
Last edited by Walter Sobchak; 07-10-2020 at 12:35 AM.
SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798
PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL
https://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/i...h-fixing-alert
Sorry San going to have to rely on WYNN puts to get your fix.
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