Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #32321
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    Quote Originally Posted by jsearles22 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Year of the upsets....KC goes down in flames


    Can't wait to see some diehard Bengals fans superbowl bets. What were the odds pre-season?
    I’m not sure about preseason, but they were 100/1 mid season. I bet this same thing on Cincinnati and Carolina

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    Here's some Superbowl winner futures as the season went on. 66 to 1 for the Bengals preseason. Got as high as 180-1.

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  2. #32322
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    This must be the closest and most exciting playoff rounds in modern nfl history. Seems like it might be all time but I’m too young to make that call. Hope the superbowl does not disappoint. I think the bengals get their first sb win.

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  4. #32324
    Platinum JeffDime's Avatar
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    LPGA Drive On- Nelly Korda +700/+650

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    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by matos View Post
    This must be the closest and most exciting playoff rounds in modern nfl history. Seems like it might be all time but I’m too young to make that call. Hope the superbowl does not disappoint. I think the bengals get their first sb win.
    The more random the sport becomes the more fun it is for fans. Anything can happen. Truth is that is how the sport has been for much of the recent past.


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    Hey, Sanlmar, I heard recently that Massachusetts legalized sports betting is imminent. Could this be true? I've wanted to bet on so many of the games and matches discussed in this thread but never felt it was worth the ride to Foxwoods or New Hampshire to lay it down.

  7. #32327
    Platinum JeffDime's Avatar
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    These were all favorites or close last week, but you still need to time them right. I always give myself a chance at a big score. I had Rahm ( 1 stroke), Rory (Bed shit 72nd hole) & Morikawa (-7 after first 11 holes before bed shit). I was alive for absolute piles. Lydia saved the day for me. If she didn’t come through, I would probably need to be sent to the psych ward.

    I had Med with the tennis against Rafa. What a sore loser this asshole is. Rams I took the hook in the ass. But hey, Lydia won.

    Hope to be more active this week. I really like Nelly to get it done this week.

    As far as the bankroll I’m too tilted to do it. It’s up about 10 K but being sick last week I didn’t officially post Lydia with a dollar amount. It was 2K at 10-1 but I always count the losing bets and not the winning ones if I don’t make it official. Maybe I’ll find a solution going forward, it’s just I want to get the picks out sometimes and I just don’t take the time to make it formal. Main thing is enough of them cashed to be profitable.

    The bankroll would be up another 26.5 k if I counted the Herbert +650 (1K) and Lydia last week. I guess I’m superstitious now. So going forward I’ll probably just post picks.


    Hope everyone is doing well.

  8. #32328
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    I know a guy, who knows a guy, who knows the lucky bastard that made this bet. God bless him. The thing surprising to me is the two scores paying so well. They are both a reasonable total and a product of adding only 3s or 7s. Numbers you want (0,7,4) in a super bowl box contest. It dam sure beats playing lotto. I’m surprised it paid that well. If he was placing a number of different score combinations use multiples of TDs & FGs, of course the luck is something none of us will ever experience, but the correct strategy.

  9. #32329
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by country978 View Post
    Hey, Sanlmar, I heard recently that Massachusetts legalized sports betting is imminent. Could this be true? I've wanted to bet on so many of the games and matches discussed in this thread but never felt it was worth the ride to Foxwoods or New Hampshire to lay it down.
    It is fascinating that the very first state to have a legal lottery is amongst the last to legalized sports wagering.

    I imagine Wynn is looking to protect their position with that boondoggle casino in Boston.

    I predict the end of 2022 though. I will never sign up unless there are some huge bonus giveaways - there likely will be.

    I could never be a winning sports gambler if I paid taxes. It’s too hard and winning too slim for me. I wouldn’t bet for fun. I have a unique capacity to boycott stuff and snap (rage) quit things.

    Twitter has finally made it so that I can’t even read Posts without an account. Will I sign up? I am at a strange crossroads with that corrupt outfit. Not sure how that plays out for me.

     
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      country978: Encore Boston Harbor boondogle rep
      
      JoeD: Twitter is basically mind poison. Feels bad for the younger generation with no self discipline
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 01-31-2022 at 09:13 AM.

  10. #32330
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Btw I think the lottery is a bad thing for society. Those that can’t afford it play it. The odds are criminal. People should be free to live their lives and make bad choices though.

    I have never bought a scratch ticket since high school. I beg my wife not to play the stupid mega millions. I don’t even want to know how much she lights on fire when the number gets big.

    I hate the feeling of losing. I don’t need to pay for the privilege of feeling disappointed. I can do that for free.

  11. #32331
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    You're old enough to remember the blue laws in Massachusetts and the Sunday New Hampshire packie runs, yes?

  12. #32332
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by country978 View Post
    You're old enough to remember the blue laws in Massachusetts and the Sunday New Hampshire packie runs, yes?
    Wow. I gotta thank you. I wonder when the last time I thought about Blue Laws was? Good grief.

    I am old enough to remember.

    Used to go to church and return with a Sunday paper that weighed 5 lbs. I’d sit in far rear the of the family station wagon and read by myself. Parents were smart enough to leave me alone. I’d start with the comics then sports then the Parade magazine insert and fumble through the rest.

    We’d hang out in the yard with the neighborhood fathers and friends. Sunday brunch. I don’t think we played organized youth sports on Sunday either.

    Definitely made the packy runs to Nashua. So funny. Lol, anyone ever checking for ID’s.

    Times have changed. Sunday is just another day. Everyone running around on Sunday - working, shopping & sports.

    I had my own Sunday routine with my kids. We didn’t do church but did the family breakfast thing. They remembered it as it turns out. I get these random texts that crack me up.

    I was just reminiscing about Dunkin Donuts actually baking donuts in the store. Now that going waaaay back. I wouldn’t eat a donut from a factory today

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      country978: loved reading about this
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 01-31-2022 at 10:18 AM.

  13. #32333
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    Ben will remember the Sunday drives to the Vegas Strip. Playing slots with dad while wearing the fake mustache.

    Mustache covered with mustard from the hot dog on a stick.

  14. #32334
    Gold PositiveVariance's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeffDime View Post
    I know a guy, who knows a guy, who knows the lucky bastard that made this bet. God bless him. The thing surprising to me is the two scores paying so well. They are both a reasonable total and a product of adding only 3s or 7s. Numbers you want (0,7,4) in a super bowl box contest. It dam sure beats playing lotto. I’m surprised it paid that well. If he was placing a number of different score combinations use multiples of TDs & FGs, of course the luck is something none of us will ever experience, but the correct strategy.
    I'm with you on this one JD, I'm shocked that this paid out 29k to 1. Both being "predictable" scores.
    Just think of how many various combinations you can make with say a $2,000 investment at $20 per parlay. You can bet 100 different combinations.

    JD, do you know if he was a sharp bettor? Or just a dude that plopped down a $20 and hit the jackpot?


    Even the payouts for the correct scores on each games are surprising at 220-1 for Bengalês/Chiefs and 130-1 for Rams/49ers.

    After seeing this I'm definitely going to take a look at the payouts for the exact score on the Super Bowl.
    Last edited by PositiveVariance; 01-31-2022 at 10:50 AM.

  15. #32335
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    Quote Originally Posted by PositiveVariance View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by JeffDime View Post

    I know a guy, who knows a guy, who knows the lucky bastard that made this bet. God bless him. The thing surprising to me is the two scores paying so well. They are both a reasonable total and a product of adding only 3s or 7s. Numbers you want (0,7,4) in a super bowl box contest. It dam sure beats playing lotto. I’m surprised it paid that well. If he was placing a number of different score combinations use multiples of TDs & FGs, of course the luck is something none of us will ever experience, but the correct strategy.
    After seeing this I'm definitely going to take a look at the payouts for the exact score on the Super Bowl.



    And why do you think the books so openly publicize these wins?

    The lotto is just a tax on the poor. And these exact score bets are quite simply lotto tickets.

     
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      PositiveVariance: They are definitely -EV bets. There are definitely +EV opportunities by betting just a few numbers. Downside is massive variance.
    It's hilarious that we as a society think everyone can be a dr, a lawyer, an engineer. Some people are just fucking stupid. Why can't we just accept that?

  16. #32336
    Welcher jsearles22's Avatar
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    Also 100 combinations sounds like a lot, but it’s really only 10 x 10. And it’s not just the score but who won too. So say there are 5 scores you like (31-27, 27-24, 28-24, 35-28, 38-28); you then have to bet each team to win by those scores and all the corresponding combinations. Then you have to be right twice.

    Suffice it to say the true odds are much higher than 29,000/1
    It's hilarious that we as a society think everyone can be a dr, a lawyer, an engineer. Some people are just fucking stupid. Why can't we just accept that?

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    Quote Originally Posted by JeffDime View Post
    LPGA Drive On- Nelly Korda +700/+650
    With no Kos entered this weekend a Korda victory seems likely. I do like Lexi and Brooke Henderson to win something this season but have no idea when that might happen.

    By the way, Lydia's 3rd round par saves on the 17th and 18th holes this past weekend when she was struggling a bit were great to watch!

  18. #32338
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jsearles22 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by PositiveVariance View Post

    After seeing this I'm definitely going to take a look at the payouts for the exact score on the Super Bowl.



    And why do you think the books so openly publicize these wins?

    The lotto is just a tax on the poor. And these exact score bets are quite simply lotto tickets.
    I am transfixed by the Caesars ads with BSmoove, Halle Berry, the Manning triplets et etc. The ad spend on this is beyond comprehension. The production value is remarkable. Poker ad spend was a pimple in comparison.

    Half a million fits their present scale for publicity. Every single guy who places a bet today will have seen this story. Promise you

    Crypto.com is another one. The crypto.com spend is gonna be a mark of the early 2020’s when kids look back. Poor guy Matt Damon nuked his career. Wonder what he made for the ad? Hope he took fiat.

  19. #32339
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    Leafs first period -0.5 +100
    First period over 1.5 -150
    Leafs -1.5 -130

    Take your pick.

    Hawks -120

  20. #32340
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Leafs first period -0.5 +100
    First period over 1.5 -150
    Leafs -1.5 -130

    Take your pick.

    Hawks -120
    Can’t remember what it was but I tailed your last hockey pick and it paid. Never did thank you.

    Oilers reg and some kind of Kane prop? McDavid points?

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