House buying, jesus christ.

[splitthis]

I've got a property that I've had since 2016 and I'm HODL'ing it for dear life as it is going to put 250k in my pocket whenever I so choose. Spring is going to be nuts. Prices on SFH are FLAT in my area which is unheard of (except for last winter lol) this time of year. Usually huge drop off in prices with January being bottom. Not this winter, which means when the weather breaks it is going to be bonkers. Going to take years for all the building to catch up and supply chain/labor issues are just going to complicate it even more. Housing starts were cut in half from 2010-2020. If you have a house and need cash I would refi but do not sell. Things will be in sellers favor for years to come.

We bought another house in June 2020 just pulled out $200k cash out 2.25% interest only. Pooh likes free money. I disagree we will be in a sellers markets for years to come though. 100% disagree actually. Once the Fed starts raising rates and if the 30 yr mortgage gets to 4.5% it's look out below time. This time won't be different.

Agree 100%. Don’t think it will be as bad as 2008, but definitely won’t be good. Coupled with inflation, property taxes will rise significantly on overvalued homes, leaving many that purchased homes with not enough wiggle room. This is what I am waiting for, don’t think it will take more than another year.

Sell high, buy low. If you have one to sell, I wouldn’t wait much longer.

[sonatine]

Did Sonatine ever pull the trigger and buy that house 8 years ago? If so, how did it work out?

few years later i bought something in the hudson valley in ny. good starter house, nothing fancy, but 2+ acres and a stocked trout stream behind me.

damned near doubled in value in the last 2 years but no telling how long that will last. its nice tho. no neighbors to speak of but i can get sushi delivered. see more deer and turkey than i do people.

looking to relocate back to PST time zone in the near future to be closer to family but honestly this housing market is a bad dream i cant wake up from.

like i checked houses north of portland, in vancouver. pre-covid there were about 30+ houses listed on over half an acre and over 2500 square feet for less than 600k.

yesterday, there were 8. and i dont mean for under 600k, i mean 8 total, at any price at all.

so yeah, we will see. no complaints tho.

[Pooh]

Depends how you want to play the game. If you think of a home as something you'd want to pay off 30 yr later then it's a waiting game to buy. If you would rather get a very low interest only 5/1 arm and roll the dice it almost doesn't matter what the price is. Go buy a house for a million dollars for less than 2k a month not including tax. That's the way I prefer it. Rates are going higher in the short/medium term. I think the housing market corrects 2024 possibly earlier. People have short memories once covid is over and life returns to normal. If you're like me and think it ends in 2022 people will be jonesing to get back to city life. Tons of people have moved to the 'burbs and miss city living. All you have to do is look at the Case-shiller index and you'll see just how big the housing bubble truly is. I'd bet money though when my loan adjusts in five years interest rates will be back where they are right now again because a recession is coming most likely 24/25.

[NaturalBornHustler]

I've got a property that I've had since 2016 and I'm HODL'ing it for dear life as it is going to put 250k in my pocket whenever I so choose. Spring is going to be nuts. Prices on SFH are FLAT in my area which is unheard of (except for last winter lol) this time of year. Usually huge drop off in prices with January being bottom. Not this winter, which means when the weather breaks it is going to be bonkers. Going to take years for all the building to catch up and supply chain/labor issues are just going to complicate it even more. Housing starts were cut in half from 2010-2020. If you have a house and need cash I would refi but do not sell. Things will be in sellers favor for years to come.

We bought another house in June 2020 just pulled out $200k cash out 2.25% interest only. Pooh likes free money. I disagree we will be in a sellers markets for years to come though. 100% disagree actually. Once the Fed starts raising rates and if the 30 yr mortgage gets to 4.5% it's look out below time. This time won't be different.

Yeah 2.25% isn't only free it's like they are paying you lol. When do you think 4.5% is happening? No time soon IMO. Every time it trends up a little it drops right back down. We are very far off from a full point rise in rates IMO. They will inch and inch maybe but it will take years IF we ever get there again. Save for a small blip a few years back we have been at or way below 4% for a full decade. And that still has nothing to do with supply and the other issues, which will be persistent. The market might "normalize" a bit but if anyone is waiting for a lean toward buyers market they are going to be waiting a long while IMO.

[Pooh]

We bought another house in June 2020 just pulled out $200k cash out 2.25% interest only. Pooh likes free money. I disagree we will be in a sellers markets for years to come though. 100% disagree actually. Once the Fed starts raising rates and if the 30 yr mortgage gets to 4.5% it's look out below time. This time won't be different.

Yeah 2.25% isn't only free it's like they are paying you lol. When do you think 4.5% is happening? No time soon IMO. Every time it trends up a little it drops right back down. We are very far off from a full point rise in rates IMO. They will inch and inch maybe but it will take years IF we ever get there again. Save for a small blip a few years back we have been at or way below 4% for a full decade. And that still has nothing to do with supply and the other issues, which will be persistent. The market might "normalize" a bit but if anyone is waiting for a lean toward buyers market they are going to be waiting a long while IMO.

Dimon from JPM said today he'd be surprised if we get less than four hikes this year alone. 90% chance first hike in March. Personally, I don't think they hike til May or June but what the hell do I know? Election year so I think they go slow unless inflation continues to rip which is will 100% until mid year at the minimum. I think there's a decent chance we see inflation come down a bit second half this year. 4.5% mortgage rate? By end of 23 I'd guess.

[garrett]

We bought another house in June 2020 just pulled out $200k cash out 2.25% interest only. Pooh likes free money. I disagree we will be in a sellers markets for years to come though. 100% disagree actually. Once the Fed starts raising rates and if the 30 yr mortgage gets to 4.5% it's look out below time. This time won't be different.

Yeah 2.25% isn't only free it's like they are paying you lol. When do you think 4.5% is happening? No time soon IMO. Every time it trends up a little it drops right back down. We are very far off from a full point rise in rates IMO. They will inch and inch maybe but it will take years IF we ever get there again. Save for a small blip a few years back we have been at or way below 4% for a full decade. And that still has nothing to do with supply and the other issues, which will be persistent. The market might "normalize" a bit but if anyone is waiting for a lean toward buyers market they are going to be waiting a long while IMO.

He is absolutely right here

another reason Housing Prices are flying up isnt actually that only, Covid and Materials huge Material backups happened, Supplies prices went up so obviously that gets passed onto the home buyer and well you get, significantly rising housing prices, when Materials actually really do all go up also, which is what is happening now actually. And so the spike in house prices is due to the Supply/Demand actually in the Market and how right now, Supply is short, their is no housing actually depending on where/what but South Florida this Market here moving way up, and honestly for real Supply Shortage reasons in this Market here, South Florida I dont see housing prices down here at all now, going down, due to a real shortage in Supply (houses avail) and now, the prices to build more just went up big time so, maybe people missed this significant move, up

Very interesting and from a timing standpoint, lucky if you did actually buy in before this and imo honestly, going to stick now housing price being high, the American Dream right thats what i was raised thinking a home was. Anyway due to at least for sure in some more popular Markets like here, housing prices are not coming down here for a while i think. This time and the move up was different and why, and its due to a Supply Shortage and Material Costs going up so you're gonna pay to own now more.

[Sanlmar]

Depends how you want to play the game.

If you give back a 2.5% mortgage - ever - I’m getting on a plane.

30 years from now people will gawk at that paper and beg you to regale them with stories of the great give-a-way

[garrett]

Depends how you want to play the game. If you think of a home as something you'd want to pay off 30 yr later then it's a waiting game to buy. If you would rather get a very low interest only 5/1 arm and roll the dice it almost doesn't matter what the price is. Go buy a house for a million dollars for less than 2k a month not including tax. That's the way I prefer it. Rates are going higher in the short/medium term. I think the housing market corrects 2024 possibly earlier. People have short memories once covid is over and life returns to normal. If you're like me and think it ends in 2022 people will be jonesing to get back to city life. Tons of people have moved to the 'burbs and miss city living. All you have to do is look at the Case-shiller index and you'll see just how big the housing bubble truly is. I'd bet money though when my loan adjusts in five years interest rates will be back where they are right now again because a recession is coming most likely 24/25.

Pooh you are dead wrong here

This housing Market now across the US, is different than the Collapse in 2007/2008 actually in one major difference that is NOT happening now with these Market circumstances and that is, loose lending. Loose lending and Mortgage Backed Securities so Wall St exposure is what folded the 2007/2008 housing collapse, and right now and this Market actually has none of it, none of it. Pooh this Market happening right now is NOT a loose lending Market at all people getting the Mortgages now will pay them, plan too and are not just stretching them out the Max 30 years like 2008 maybe, so they could then pay the minimum for the longest period of time and keep their Mortgage as low as an apartment was. THAT is what people were thinking in 2007 and what led to the collapse among other things, that is NOT happening right now at all. And im not here to be you're Economics professor but i can assure you all everything about this now healthy and going to STICK because it is for the right reasons move up now, that is why and this is different.

This is NOT a loose lending Market at all which led to the collapse or much of it in 2007/2008 this is different this is a healthy real and forever Move up, hope you own today because if you didnt lose up to now youre making money in this housing market now or should be.

[sonatine]

its incredible to think that all it took to make a drunk father beating janitor a master of economics is mild brain damage.