*** Official NFL/ NCAA Betting Discussion Thread

[Daly]

My play of the night is Jay Ajayi (Boise) Over 117 yards.

This was a great bet. The reason why I say that isn't because it paid, but because Air Force gave it every reason to not cash. They had the ball for what seemed like the whole 1Q and half the 2Q.

Tomorrow I like Geoff under 34 completions and Treggs under 105 yards. This is Ohio State boys, not northwestern.

Iowa kept Jordan Lynch to 56 yards, I have to think a injured Sam Richardson isn't getting over 57 rushing yards.

Not sure how to play it yet but Bama ain't going to let A&M run wild on them. Probably put some unders on A&M.

[BCR]

[QUOTE=BCR;191320]

NFL

Chiefs -4.5 w
Cleveland -1.5 l
Bengals +9/ Pittsburgh -1 teaser l

Steelers might be drafting in the top 5. They suck, and Pouncey's injury looks serious.


Rams -3.5 l
NYG + 3.5 l
NYG ml +150 l
nyg + 9.5/OVER 43.5 TEASER w

NCAA 7-3 ytd, Nfl 2-5


indiana -2.5
maryland -7
indiana +3.5/ maryland -1 teaser
Texas -3
Wisconsin +4
WISCONSIN +160
kENTUCKY +17

[ShadyJ]

RAS 4-5 ytd
BGreen over 61 Ball st over 63 K st over 57 WI over 52
Marshall -6.5
Midd Tenn st -4.5
S Fl-10.5

[ShadyJ]

Covers Expert Marc Lawrence digs deep into his stats machine to bring you the best betting numbers, trends and records for this week's football action in NCAAF and the NFL.

You killed my team, prepare to die

Alabama’s only loss of the 2012 season occurred at home in a 29-24 setback to Texas A&M.

The question is will the Tide extract their revenge or will the weight of being the defending national champion hold them down?

If you like Nick Saban, you’ll like knowing he shines in games when seeking revenge, going 32-17 SU and ATS in his college career – including 11-0 SU and 8-3 ATS when favored by more than seven points.

Saban is also an eye-opening 20-4 SU and 17-6 ATS in games involving a pair of undefeated teams, including 15-1 SU and 11-5 ATS with Alabama.

Granted, the Aggies are a jaw-dropping 35-4 straight up at home in games in which they are undefeated since 1984, but Texas A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin is 0-6 ATS in his career against .666 or greater foes with revenge.

Remember, it was Gandhi who said, “An eye for an eye will only make the whole world blind.”

Somehow, we think Nick Saban could care less.

Taking an early blow

In the majority of cases, rest is considered advantageous for most college football teams, especially late in the season.

An extra blow not only helps heal tired bodies but also gives coaches a chance to better study an opponent’s game film in greater detail. However, rested teams during the opening month of the season tend to develop dichotic personalities.

A week of rest right out of the box in a new season can either help or hinder a team – depending on their previous effort and venue.

In college football, teams in Game 2 playing off a loss with a week of rest are just 58-73 ATS since 1980, including 29-44 ATS when on the road. This week we find Boise State, Navy (away), Southern Miss and UAB (away) in this not-so-desirable role.

On the other side of the coin, college football teams in Game 2 playing off a win with a week of rest are 121-86-4 ATS since 1980, with Oregon State in this role next week.

When playing foes with wobbly defenses (allow 27 or more PPG on the season), these rested winners improve to 40-14 ATS, including 19-4 SU and ATS when playing away. Beware of the Beavers next week.

Phony baloneys

As we commonly allude to in this column, phony football teams manage to wins games on the scoreboard while losing in the stats.

While there wasn’t the usual amount of “inside-out” wins on the football front last weed, here are teams this week that were last week’s stat winners and losers…

Won the game, lost the stats: Akron, Fresno State, Tennessee and Purdue.

On the flip side, these are teams that lost the game but won the stats: Western Kentucky and Western Michigan.

On the NFL front, last week’s stat winners and losers included:

Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins and the St. Louis Rams – all won the game but lost the stats.

Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, New York Giants and the Oakland Raiders – all lost the game but won the stats.

Note: The New York Giants were triple-digit yardage winners, while Akron and Dallas were triple-digit yardage losers.

NFL total discovery

With no-huddle, quicker-pace play, and lots more offensive snaps per game being the new wave in the NFL these days, totals are expected to reach new heights.

Not so during Week 1, however, as over/unders evened out at 8-8 last week.

Interestingly, six of the seven games that did go Over involved the seven teams that had the most offensive plays in their contests, namely: Baltimore, Denver, Detroit, Dallas, San Francisco and Philadelphia – in that order.

Keep an eye on this evolving trend.

Stat of the Week

Atlanta Falcons head coach Mike Smith is 15-0 ATS in games off a loss of six or more points

[ShadyJ]

Where the action is: Books brace for Texas A&M money

Alabama isn’t the only group waiting to sink its teeth into Texas A&M this weekend.

College football bettors have been counting down the days to this SEC showdown ever since Johnny Manziel and the Aggies spoiled the Crimson Tide’s undefeated season with a 29-24 win in Bryant-Denny Stadium last November.

This spread was up as early as June when the Golden Nugget in Las Vegas opened Texas A&M as a 6-point home underdog. The LVH Superbook posted a similar line in July, tacking on a half-point hook.

With kickoff only days away, and a summer full of drama for “Johnny Football” in the past, sportsbooks are currently dealing Alabama as a 7.5-point road favorite. We talk to oddsmakers to see how the betting action has been so far, and where they expect the line to move before the 3:30 p.m. ET start.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Texas A&M Aggies – Open: +6, Move: +9.5, Move: +7.5

This line jumped significantly before the season started with rumors that Manziel could be suspended for his role in an autograph scandal, in which he was allegedly paid for signing memorabilia during last year’s BCS Championship weekend.

The spread, which was pulled from the board at many books, went up as high as Alabama -9.5 before the NCAA served up a slap on the wrist and only suspended the reigning Heisman winner for the first half of Texas A&M’s opener versus Rice. Since then, nerves have calmed and money has moved this back down around a touchdown.

The Crimson Tide are still the more popular pick among bettors, with about 67 percent of the total handle on the defending national champs. Since moving down, most books have drawn pretty solid two-way money but know the majority of the action will come Friday and Saturday.

“It’s a bit back and forth on juice, but the number is steady,” says Aron Black of bet365.com. “So far we are just shy of 3-to-1 Alabama ATS money to Texas A&M. Bama will be a banker for the parlays and some heavy-hit singles, but I expect to see some dog money on Texas A&M straight up Saturday.”

The Aggies are currently +240 moneyline underdogs after opening as high as +270 with Alabama coming back as a -300 road favorite to win SU.

The total opened at 54.5 at the Golden Nugget in June and has since climbed as high as 63 points before being bet down over the past week. Action on the under has driven the number to 60.5, with Alabama’s defense expected to prevail over the Aggies' high-flying offense.

Last year’s game played under the 54.5-point total. Texas A&M has topped the number in its first two games of the season while Alabama pushed with the 45-point total in its opener against Virginia Tech.

[ShadyJ]

Todays service play is G Tech -9 105. This goes off at 230 central. Im sure I will add some more later. GL everyone

[ShadyJ]

Todays service play is G Tech -9 105. This goes off at 230 central. Im sure I will add some more later. GL everyone

Adding a 11 am start ct

UCLA +3 -150 at bovada. Fuck at least offer the moneyline you greedy bastards

[BeerAndPoker]

Bovada is a shit book for many things including not allowing many moneyline plays in college sports. Some games they will let me lay to win $2k and others such as Michigan -36 they will only let me put to win $300 on it which has me firing on Michigan as I already liked them to blowout Akron in the first place.

[ShadyJ]

Todays service play is G Tech -9 105. This goes off at 230 central. Im sure I will add some more later. GL everyone

Adding a 11 am start ct

UCLA +3 -150 at bovada. Fuck at least offer the moneyline you greedy bastards

Adding Maryland -5
C Fl +5 every good service is on them. Corso picked them as his upset and Herbstreight said thats a nice pick. Its so lopsided on this one it scares me.
Utah -3

[ShadyJ]

Bovada is a shit book for many things including not allowing many moneyline plays in college sports. Some games they will let me lay to win $2k and others such as Michigan -36 they will only let me put to win $300 on it which has me firing on Michigan as I already liked them to blowout Akron in the first place.

Yeah but what other options do US players really have? At least we know we can get our money out. I've done 2 withdrawls in the last few weeks and received in about a week.

[BeerAndPoker]

Bovada is a shit book for many things including not allowing many moneyline plays in college sports. Some games they will let me lay to win $2k and others such as Michigan -36 they will only let me put to win $300 on it which has me firing on Michigan as I already liked them to blowout Akron in the first place.

Yeah but what other options do US players really have? At least we know we can get our money out. I've done 2 withdrawls in the last few weeks and received in about a week.

Very true. The only options I trust are Five Dimes and Heritage. I use the book in America's Card Room on occasion. BetDSI is ranked as a good book but I don't know enough about them to comment.

[shortbuspoker]

I, as an Alabama fan, don't think that Manziel will be the deciding factor of the game. Alabama is breaking in a new O-line, but Texas A&M has a horrible run defense. Saban will most likely start the game pounding the ball and if the A&M defense cannot hold the will get decimated no matter what Manziel does.

A&M gave up 306 rushing to Rice and 240 to Sam Houston State. If they allow Yeldon to run like that, the game is a no brainer. Saban is smart enough that he will run, run, and run to eat clock and keep Manziel and the offense off the field. If the Bama O-line holds early and allows Yeldon and Foster to wear down the A&M defense, the game will effectively be over at the half.

[SrslySirius]

Can we get a separate thread for NFL betting discussion?

[BeerAndPoker]

Can we get a separate thread for NFL betting discussion?

Come back on Sunday imo.

I'm not for or against the idea but I take it your not much of a college fan Srsly?

[ShadyJ]

Can we get a separate thread for NFL betting discussion?

Check back tomorrow and there will be lots of NFL posts

[cla]

Averted from the NFL to take SC pretty big -13 today. Trojans will absolutely roll BC today, I put zero stock in to wsu game. I have seen wsu do the same thing to several other P12 teams in the past.

USC big.

[ShadyJ]

Averted from the NFL to take SC pretty big -13 today. Trojans will absolutely roll BC today, I put zero stock in to wsu game. I have seen wsu do the same thing to several other P12 teams in the past.

USC big.

14.5 at Bovada. I would consider USC if it was at 13 gl

[Sanlmar]

Yeah but what other options do US players really have? At least we know we can get our money out. I've done 2 withdrawls in the last few weeks and received in about a week.

Very true. The only options I trust are Five Dimes and Heritage. I use the book in America's Card Room on occasion. BetDSI is ranked as a good book but I don't know enough about them to comment.

Those shady offshore books.

There are many entrepreneurs in South Boston & Charlestown who always entertain a reasonable proposition. In fact, they will match nearly any Internet sale price you show them.

Behave yourself though your health is not their primary concern.

Boston College +14.5
Southern Cal.

Take Boston College and points. Lots of analysis out there. Except to add, the line is pushed by last years Trojan euphoria with Matt Barkley. People early in season are slow to come around. Sorta like the Pats game Thurs.

I have my resume and blue blazer ready for Monday if I am wrong.

[BeerAndPoker]

Bovada is a shit book for many things including not allowing many moneyline plays in college sports. Some games they will let me lay to win $2k and others such as Michigan -36 they will only let me put to win $300 on it which has me firing on Michigan as I already liked them to blowout Akron in the first place.

HOF! Fail Pick of the year here by me. Akron ML +14500 had a massive chance to cash.

[cla]

Averted from the NFL to take SC pretty big -13 today. Trojans will absolutely roll BC today, I put zero stock in to wsu game. I have seen wsu do the same thing to several other P12 teams in the past.

USC big.

14.5 at Bovada. I would consider USC if it was at 13 gl

It was -13.5 placed on Monday.

Looks like the offense is getting back on track now so no more gimme lines. D about pitched a shut out.

Would like to take a stab on the Cal ml, but my book is only offering sides.