*** Official NFL/ NCAA Betting Discussion Thread

[chinamaniac]

I haven't done much research on anything from fantasy to betting yet but was cruising through a sportsbook and picked up a few futures for very small money

To win NFL MVP

Carson Palmer +50000

Def a super longshot but new scenery and Larry Fitzgerald and a couple decent receivers on his side I felt risking $12 to win $6000 here was a good play. More than likely they finish last in the division but if somehow they had a miracle season and won the division I would have to think Palmer would be a part of it.

Dez Bryant +15000

More than likely if Dallas were to put it together and have a monster year I would guess Tony Romo would be the focal point and get most of the credit. No wide receiver has ever won the award but I think that day may come to an end sometime over the next 10 years with these passing offenses. it is only a matter of time before some WR shatters Calvin Johnsons record and puts up 20+ TDS in the process. Dez Bryant may be the guy to do that. I dropped $12 to win $1800

Doug Martin +15000

Rookie season - 1454 yards 4.6 per carry, big play ability, and 49 catches. Thought it was worth taking a flyer risking $12 to win $1800



Josh Freeman +10000

Not a huge Josh Freeman fan but I am a fan of the weapons they have around him in Tampa. His completion % dropped about 7 % from 60 % to 54 % from his previous 2 seasons but I believe he was in a new system last year. he did manage an 8 game stretch last season where he threw 20 tds vs 4 picks but ended the season poorly. I thought risking $12 to win $1200 was a decent play here.



2013 Heisman Trophy - Odds To Win


Blake Bell (Oklahoma) +4000

We have seen 2 Oklahoma QBS win this in the past 8 years and the past 3 years all the qbs were mobile and scored double digit QBS on the ground. While Bell may not put up the rushing yards like RG3, Manziel or Newton he is certainly a threat around the goal line as he has scored 20 TDS rushing in his first 2 NCAA seasons in very limited duty! Add in he will be playing in an Oklahoma offense that can be explosive with the right mix of players in a high scoring conference and I like my chances laying $25 to win $1000 here

[ErickAA]

I am in a survivor pool, and have been checking out the week 1 games, and no game jumps out as a lock. Den -8 is the biggest spread, but am I really going to go against the super bowl champions and take a team (Denver) that has a bunch of new players, a bunch of injuries, and started off pretty slow last year??

IMO, the "safest" bet seems Indy -7 over Raiders, but I don't love it.

[chinamaniac]

I am in a survivor pool, and have been checking out the week 1 games, and no game jumps out as a lock. Den -8 is the biggest spread, but am I really going to go against the super bowl champions and take a team (Denver) that has a bunch of new players, a bunch of injuries, and started off pretty slow last year??

IMO, the "safest" bet seems Indy -7 over Raiders, but I don't love it.

Broncos now 8.5 and they should win this game @ home

I'd consider the steelers here @ home vs TENN over this game and N.E. @ Buff

While Indy should get better and probably win this game I would wait on them as they were outscored last season and a lot of things fell there way

[gut]

I am in a survivor pool, and have been checking out the week 1 games, and no game jumps out as a lock. Den -8 is the biggest spread, but am I really going to go against the super bowl champions and take a team (Denver) that has a bunch of new players, a bunch of injuries, and started off pretty slow last year??

IMO, the "safest" bet seems Indy -7 over Raiders, but I don't love it.

Broncos now 8.5 and they should win this game @ home

I'd consider the steelers here @ home vs TENN over this game and N.E. @ Buff

While Indy should get better and probably win this game I would wait on them as they were outscored last season and a lot of things fell there way

or, if you want to save teams like DEN or NE for later in the season, KC over JAX and Tampa over NYJ both look good to me right now, although both on the road.

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

Broncos now 8.5 and they should win this game @ home

I'd consider the steelers here @ home vs TENN over this game and N.E. @ Buff

While Indy should get better and probably win this game I would wait on them as they were outscored last season and a lot of things fell there way

or, if you want to save teams like DEN or NE for later in the season, KC over JAX and Tampa over NYJ both look good to me right now, although both on the road.

that shit always ends up fucking you when you take borderline teams on the road...while both KC and TB should win, ive seen so many people get fucked by taking the road team...especially in week 1...

wouldn't worry about saving teams yet...take your shot at a home team this early...if they lose so be it...

[gut]

or, if you want to save teams like DEN or NE for later in the season, KC over JAX and Tampa over NYJ both look good to me right now, although both on the road.

that shit always ends up fucking you when you take borderline teams on the road...while both KC and TB should win, ive seen so many people get fucked by taking the road team...especially in week 1...

wouldn't worry about saving teams yet...take your shot at a home team this early...if they lose so be it...

True, I would probably just take Denver myself, although I haven't played survivor pools for a few years. Last one I remember doing, I did well by picking the "heavy hitters" the first couple weeks, then figuring out who the 2 worst teams were and just picking against one of them every week. I want to say it was like CLE and STL a couple years back. Worked quite well.

[ErickAA]

I haven't done so, but it is a slow day at work so I might do it now, but I have a feeling if you historically took all the week 1 road fav's that were less than -7, you would be batting well under .750, and possibly under .500. I guess what I am trying to say is no way in fucking hell am I taking a small road fav in a week 1 survivor pool.

edit: What post above me said

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

I should clarify and say a well coached home team...so your NE, PIT, SEA, SF...teams like that...

in your first 4 weeks you should really let others eliminate themselves, that's when the pool really begins...

[Sandwich]

I am in a survivor pool, and have been checking out the week 1 games, and no game jumps out as a lock.

IMO, week 1 is when you should pick the Redskins over the Eagles. (normal survivor pool with no point spreads, I assume)

[gut]

I'd like the Palmer flyer if the Cards played in the AFC instead of the NFC. The imbalance between the conferences looks to be even worse than last year. Try to pick 6 playoff teams in the AFC, then say, project what the two wild cards would do in the NFC.

My very early guesses here would be HOU, NE, DEN, CIN winning divisions, with MIA and KC as wild cards. I think MIA and KC would be 6-10 easy in the NFC this season. Lots of camp and injuries still to come of course, but I'm sure we'll see (with NFL's scheduling) another couple horrible AFC playoff teams...like the Colts last year going 11-5 despite having a negative point differential.

[chinamaniac]

I'd like the Palmer flyer if the Cards played in the AFC instead of the NFC. The imbalance between the conferences looks to be even worse than last year. Try to pick 6 playoff teams in the AFC, then say, project what the two wild cards would do in the NFC.

My very early guesses here would be HOU, NE, DEN, CIN winning divisions, with MIA and KC as wild cards. I think MIA and KC would be 6-10 easy in the NFC this season. Lots of camp and injuries still to come of course, but I'm sure we'll see (with NFL's scheduling) another couple horrible AFC playoff teams...like the Colts last year going 11-5 despite having a negative point differential.

Ya def would be much better if he were in AFC, that said @ 500-1 I wouldn't care if the best teams in football were in this division and maybe 2 of em are

[chinamaniac]

Blake Bell (Oklahoma) +4000

We have seen 2 Oklahoma QBS win this in the past 8 years and the past 3 years all the qbs were mobile and scored double digit QBS on the ground. While Bell may not put up the rushing yards like RG3, Manziel or Newton he is certainly a threat around the goal line as he has scored 20 TDS rushing in his first 2 NCAA seasons in very limited duty! Add in he will be playing in an Oklahoma offense that can be explosive with the right mix of players in a high scoring conference and I like my chances laying $25 to win $1000 here

http://kfor.com/2013/08/20/is-freshm...g-quarterback/