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Thread: *** Official NFL/ NCAA Betting Discussion Thread

  1. #1
    Diamond chinamaniac's Avatar
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    *** Official NFL/ NCAA Betting Discussion Thread

    I haven't done much research on anything from fantasy to betting yet but was cruising through a sportsbook and picked up a few futures for very small money

    To win NFL MVP

    Carson Palmer +50000

    Def a super longshot but new scenery and Larry Fitzgerald and a couple decent receivers on his side I felt risking $12 to win $6000 here was a good play. More than likely they finish last in the division but if somehow they had a miracle season and won the division I would have to think Palmer would be a part of it.

    Dez Bryant +15000

    More than likely if Dallas were to put it together and have a monster year I would guess Tony Romo would be the focal point and get most of the credit. No wide receiver has ever won the award but I think that day may come to an end sometime over the next 10 years with these passing offenses. it is only a matter of time before some WR shatters Calvin Johnsons record and puts up 20+ TDS in the process. Dez Bryant may be the guy to do that. I dropped $12 to win $1800

    Doug Martin +15000

    Rookie season - 1454 yards 4.6 per carry, big play ability, and 49 catches. Thought it was worth taking a flyer risking $12 to win $1800



    Josh Freeman +10000

    Not a huge Josh Freeman fan but I am a fan of the weapons they have around him in Tampa. His completion % dropped about 7 % from 60 % to 54 % from his previous 2 seasons but I believe he was in a new system last year. he did manage an 8 game stretch last season where he threw 20 tds vs 4 picks but ended the season poorly. I thought risking $12 to win $1200 was a decent play here.



    2013 Heisman Trophy - Odds To Win


    Blake Bell (Oklahoma) +4000

    We have seen 2 Oklahoma QBS win this in the past 8 years and the past 3 years all the qbs were mobile and scored double digit QBS on the ground. While Bell may not put up the rushing yards like RG3, Manziel or Newton he is certainly a threat around the goal line as he has scored 20 TDS rushing in his first 2 NCAA seasons in very limited duty! Add in he will be playing in an Oklahoma offense that can be explosive with the right mix of players in a high scoring conference and I like my chances laying $25 to win $1000 here

  2. #2
    I am in a survivor pool, and have been checking out the week 1 games, and no game jumps out as a lock. Den -8 is the biggest spread, but am I really going to go against the super bowl champions and take a team (Denver) that has a bunch of new players, a bunch of injuries, and started off pretty slow last year??

    IMO, the "safest" bet seems Indy -7 over Raiders, but I don't love it.

  3. #3
    All Sorts of Sports gut's Avatar
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    I'd like the Palmer flyer if the Cards played in the AFC instead of the NFC. The imbalance between the conferences looks to be even worse than last year. Try to pick 6 playoff teams in the AFC, then say, project what the two wild cards would do in the NFC.

    My very early guesses here would be HOU, NE, DEN, CIN winning divisions, with MIA and KC as wild cards. I think MIA and KC would be 6-10 easy in the NFC this season. Lots of camp and injuries still to come of course, but I'm sure we'll see (with NFL's scheduling) another couple horrible AFC playoff teams...like the Colts last year going 11-5 despite having a negative point differential.

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    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    I am in a survivor pool, and have been checking out the week 1 games, and no game jumps out as a lock. Den -8 is the biggest spread, but am I really going to go against the super bowl champions and take a team (Denver) that has a bunch of new players, a bunch of injuries, and started off pretty slow last year??

    IMO, the "safest" bet seems Indy -7 over Raiders, but I don't love it.
    Broncos now 8.5 and they should win this game @ home

    I'd consider the steelers here @ home vs TENN over this game and N.E. @ Buff

    While Indy should get better and probably win this game I would wait on them as they were outscored last season and a lot of things fell there way

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    Quote Originally Posted by gut View Post
    I'd like the Palmer flyer if the Cards played in the AFC instead of the NFC. The imbalance between the conferences looks to be even worse than last year. Try to pick 6 playoff teams in the AFC, then say, project what the two wild cards would do in the NFC.

    My very early guesses here would be HOU, NE, DEN, CIN winning divisions, with MIA and KC as wild cards. I think MIA and KC would be 6-10 easy in the NFC this season. Lots of camp and injuries still to come of course, but I'm sure we'll see (with NFL's scheduling) another couple horrible AFC playoff teams...like the Colts last year going 11-5 despite having a negative point differential.
    Ya def would be much better if he were in AFC, that said @ 500-1 I wouldn't care if the best teams in football were in this division and maybe 2 of em are

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    All Sorts of Sports gut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chinamaniac View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    I am in a survivor pool, and have been checking out the week 1 games, and no game jumps out as a lock. Den -8 is the biggest spread, but am I really going to go against the super bowl champions and take a team (Denver) that has a bunch of new players, a bunch of injuries, and started off pretty slow last year??

    IMO, the "safest" bet seems Indy -7 over Raiders, but I don't love it.
    Broncos now 8.5 and they should win this game @ home

    I'd consider the steelers here @ home vs TENN over this game and N.E. @ Buff

    While Indy should get better and probably win this game I would wait on them as they were outscored last season and a lot of things fell there way
    or, if you want to save teams like DEN or NE for later in the season, KC over JAX and Tampa over NYJ both look good to me right now, although both on the road.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    I am in a survivor pool, and have been checking out the week 1 games, and no game jumps out as a lock.
    IMO, week 1 is when you should pick the Redskins over the Eagles. (normal survivor pool with no point spreads, I assume)

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by gut View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by chinamaniac View Post
    Broncos now 8.5 and they should win this game @ home

    I'd consider the steelers here @ home vs TENN over this game and N.E. @ Buff

    While Indy should get better and probably win this game I would wait on them as they were outscored last season and a lot of things fell there way
    or, if you want to save teams like DEN or NE for later in the season, KC over JAX and Tampa over NYJ both look good to me right now, although both on the road.
    that shit always ends up fucking you when you take borderline teams on the road...while both KC and TB should win, ive seen so many people get fucked by taking the road team...especially in week 1...

    wouldn't worry about saving teams yet...take your shot at a home team this early...if they lose so be it...

  9. #9
    I haven't done so, but it is a slow day at work so I might do it now, but I have a feeling if you historically took all the week 1 road fav's that were less than -7, you would be batting well under .750, and possibly under .500. I guess what I am trying to say is no way in fucking hell am I taking a small road fav in a week 1 survivor pool.

    edit: What post above me said

  10. #10
    All Sorts of Sports gut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by gut View Post

    or, if you want to save teams like DEN or NE for later in the season, KC over JAX and Tampa over NYJ both look good to me right now, although both on the road.
    that shit always ends up fucking you when you take borderline teams on the road...while both KC and TB should win, ive seen so many people get fucked by taking the road team...especially in week 1...

    wouldn't worry about saving teams yet...take your shot at a home team this early...if they lose so be it...
    True, I would probably just take Denver myself, although I haven't played survivor pools for a few years. Last one I remember doing, I did well by picking the "heavy hitters" the first couple weeks, then figuring out who the 2 worst teams were and just picking against one of them every week. I want to say it was like CLE and STL a couple years back. Worked quite well.

  11. #11
    I should clarify and say a well coached home team...so your NE, PIT, SEA, SF...teams like that...

    in your first 4 weeks you should really let others eliminate themselves, that's when the pool really begins...

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by gut View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post

    that shit always ends up fucking you when you take borderline teams on the road...while both KC and TB should win, ive seen so many people get fucked by taking the road team...especially in week 1...

    wouldn't worry about saving teams yet...take your shot at a home team this early...if they lose so be it...
    True, I would probably just take Denver myself, although I haven't played survivor pools for a few years. Last one I remember doing, I did well by picking the "heavy hitters" the first couple weeks, then figuring out who the 2 worst teams were and just picking against them every week. I want to say it was like CLE and STL a couple years back. Worked quite well.
    I think that's a great strategy...if I can bet against the shittiest 2-3-4 teams in the league on the road, ill take my shots...usually you'll have a good idea of who those teams are after about 4 weeks...

  13. #13
    Serial Blogger BeerAndPoker's Avatar
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    Patriots changed up so much this year and I see they are still predicted to win 11 games. I know Brady had a bunch of random receivers the one season they got to I believe the AFC Championship game before losing but the changes this year are big and Brady was younger back in that time.

    Luckily for New England the whole Hernandez shit happened in the time in did so it will be less of a distraction now but still I think people are overvaluing the Pats due to their history of always being competitive in the current era.

    Pat's under 11 wins is something I should have jumped on sooner so I'm not sure I will bet it now as the price has got worse.

  14. #14
    you think their division is good enough for them not to go 6-0?

    I still think the AFC east is shitty enough that they should be a favorite to go 6-0 in the division...if they do that then they have to play .500 football outside the division...which looking at their schedule they could be able to pull off...

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    Quote Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker View Post
    Patriots changed up so much this year and I see they are still predicted to win 11 games. I know Brady had a bunch of random receivers the one season they got to I believe the AFC Championship game before losing but the changes this year are big and Brady was younger back in that time.
    His best regular season QB play has been recent though

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by chinamaniac View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker View Post
    Patriots changed up so much this year and I see they are still predicted to win 11 games. I know Brady had a bunch of random receivers the one season they got to I believe the AFC Championship game before losing but the changes this year are big and Brady was younger back in that time.
    His best regular season QB play has been recent though
    Brady being older now, IMO, actually helps with this change. He's been there, seen that, knows how to get receivers on the same page as him. Talent-wise, they're really only missing Hernandez (and Gronk I guess with injury if he's out for some time). Amendola is a Welker clone, I'd rather have Dobson right now than Lloyd, and Edelman still lingering around. Assuming Gronk can play a fair amount of games, passing game shouldn't get hit too hard. Plus, Belichick is a master at building the system around the talent.

    I'd guess 5-1 in their division. Miami once being the most likely loss. EJ Manuel and Geno Smith are wildcards if they get to start (and they both should), maybe BUF or NYJ can steal one.

  17. #17
    @MIA is the one game that id think they could lose in the division...

    I don't think that the jets or bills can do enough offensively to get into it with the pats...plus they have a much superior running game than they have had in recent years which should take pressure off of what might be a little less talent in the passing game...

  18. #18
    Serial Blogger BeerAndPoker's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chinamaniac View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker View Post
    Patriots changed up so much this year and I see they are still predicted to win 11 games. I know Brady had a bunch of random receivers the one season they got to I believe the AFC Championship game before losing but the changes this year are big and Brady was younger back in that time.
    His best regular season QB play has been recent though
    That's true two seasons ago.

    I've changed by mind they will probably get 11 wins or so as I was underestimating the Tebow factor.

  19. #19
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    This is my list.

    NCAA NC
    50/600 Texas A&M (whoops)
    350/8000 Georgia
    1/1000 Tenn
    1/1000 Miss St

    NCAA Game of the Year
    360/300 Bama -6.5 >Texas A&M
    330/300 Fresno +1 > Boise St
    330/300 Michigan -3 > Penn St

    Week 1 NFL
    360/300 Tampa Bay -2.5
    345/300 New England -7
    330/300 NE/Buff Under 52
    220/200 NE/Buff Under 51

    NFL Futures
    300/5400 A Brown DROTY
    300/2400 J Jones DROTY
    300/900 C Johnson most Rec Yards
    300/1050 AD most Rush Yards
    500/435 Tom Brady Less Than 4800.5 Passing yards
    500/435 A Foster Less Than 1375.5 Rushing Yards
    500/435 M Lynch Less Than 1475.4 Rushing Yards
    550/500 Colts Less Than 8.5 Wins

    (Edit - The Bama line is 6.5, not 7... at least it used to be)
    Last edited by Daly; 08-09-2013 at 07:50 PM.

  20. #20
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Haven't actually booked these yet... but this is my prelim shopping list for week 1 NCAA

    U mass +44.5
    NC State -13.5
    Auburn -15
    Georgia -1.5 3 units
    Fla St -10 2 units
    LSU -4

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