If you want to reduce variance don't enter the tournament in the first place and play cash. Of course you don't want to reduce variance. You think winning $10 million dollars comes from making the low variance decisions?
This isn't a strategy forum but if someone raises and I have ~40 BBs then I'm not 3-betting for value with any hand I'm folding to a 4-bet. Kings are certainly the nuts here and remain so until you start approaching 100 BBs stack depths.
4 bets often times aren't at 100 bb's. It's also barely approaching 40bb's.Originally Posted by ShawnFanningsLimpDick
50/100 blinds starting stack say 10k.
raise to 250. reraise to 750-1000. 4 bet to 3000-4000.
No one is jamming 100 bb's there on a 4 bet. If you get 4 bet there and you're really convinced your kings are good just call. A shove isn't going to take them off at this point 99% of the time with the range they're representing. If an ace falls on the flop you can see how the opponent reacts, otherwise do what you want from there. You're not likely getting called with anything less than aces at that point. It's so unnecessary to shove pre-flop there when you're that deep.
I always wondered who actually bought "The Micon System"
So you think a sample size of 4 is good enough to prove that you are using a good strategy? Of all people you should be more in tune with the mathematics of poker and not influenced by results or how a single session plays out. Do you discuss strategy with Kessler? He cashes a fairly high percentage of tournaments yet loses money overall and constantly blames his cards and bad luck.
Players playing to survive is what makes this particular tournament so profitable for tournament experts. So many donks (like you) are trying so hard to make it to the next day, and then to cash saying to themselves all along that if they make it to the cash they will play to win which of course they won't, because they see people busting around them and so they play to make it to the next cash level.
Spend less time trying to prove you are always right and try exploring what the highly respected players do. Secretly join a training site and learn the mathematics of tournament poker.
This forum is a lost cause when it comes to nlhe please stick to limit and scams.Why in the hell would you commit anything higher than 50 bb's preflop with KK? Even 50 bb's is a huge stretch. You're suppose to be reducing variance, not increasing it.
You make to much sense your going to get flamed. I cant understand how someone with such a great math mind would even consider less then 10 tourneys to mean anything. I adated a style early on playing tourneys that was considered just bad by alot of tourney pros, but I did the opposite of what most were doing. Play tight when the blinds are low, so you can put your tourney life down the road on a flip. Not me I wanna play everyhand early because the blinds are low and the fish are still in. I either bust early or build my stack so I can lose some flips and still be in.So you think a sample size of 4 is good enough to prove that you are using a good strategy? Of all people you should be more in tune with the mathematics of poker and not influenced by results or how a single session plays out. Do you discuss strategy with Kessler? He cashes a fairly high percentage of tournaments yet loses money overall and constantly blames his cards and bad luck.
Players playing to survive is what makes this particular tournament so profitable for tournament experts. So many donks (like you) are trying so hard to make it to the next day, and then to cash saying to themselves all along that if they make it to the cash they will play to win which of course they won't, because they see people busting around them and so they play to make it to the next cash level.
Spend less time trying to prove you are always right and try exploring what the highly respected players do. Secretly join a training site and learn the mathematics of tournament poker.
I think if you sold a good% of yourself in the main event you would play better, and not make your goal just cashing but actually winning.
Last edited by ShadyJ; 07-13-2013 at 08:21 AM.
Thats why you shove. Your thinking is very backwards and typical. The only reason to flat is if you think they have air in their range that they will fold to a 5 bet, but play aggresively if you just flat.4 bets often times aren't at 100 bb's. It's also barely approaching 40bb's.
50/100 blinds starting stack say 10k.
raise to 250. reraise to 750-1000. 4 bet to 3000-4000.
No one is jamming 100 bb's there on a 4 bet. If you get 4 bet there and you're really convinced your kings are good just call. A shove isn't going to take them off at this point 99% of the time with the range they're representing. If an ace falls on the flop you can see how the opponent reacts, otherwise do what you want from there. You're not likely getting called with anything less than aces at that point. It's so unnecessary to shove pre-flop there when you're that deep.
anonamoose holy fuck you are stupid
I'm not getting it in with KK against a straightforward amateur when we both have around 34k and blinds are 100-200. I'm just not doing that, especially in a tournament where blinds move up very slowly, so chipping up immediately is not necessary.
I think what a lot of people are missing here is just how deep and slow-moving this tournament is.
The deeper and slower a tournament is, the less correct it is to gamble and race. This is because chips lost are more valuable than chips won (since they can't be replaced), and you have the luxury of time to get it in at a much better spot. This is actually the converse of the reason it's correct to shove with mediocre hands in late position when short.
I feel that too many people here are basing their advice upon online or local tournaments they've played, where folding KK preflop seems ridiculous, and where any guy who brags about routinely making great folds is probably a min-casher at best.
This tournament is different than all others. It has both a slow, deep structure and a healthy percentage of amateurs. This combination gives you a lot of chances to get your money in really good, rather than just trying to gamble and build by getting lucky. It also makes it tougher to make moves against players with good-but-not-great hands, because there are a lot more bad calls in this event than good folds. That's also a reason to wait until you actually hit something, and charge people big time. It's not a coincidence that my only two large pots were against second-pair-no-draw and top pair. If I got just a few more of those (and I'm not even talking about needing sets each time), I would still be there, instead of at home and frustrated about just missing the money.
People who say that I am not open to new ideas are incorrect. The fact that I was open to new ideas is the reason I changed my play style here in the first place. After 5 consecutive years of epic fail at the Main (not even getting close), I realized that I was doing it wrong, and after some conversations with other pros, concluded that a more conservative strategy in the early and middle stages was correct in this one. Or, simply put, take advantage of the luxury of time and wait for the donks to stack off against you, rather than shoving and praying. You're not going to convince me that I'm wrong about this, because I played 5 years with one style and 4 years of this one. Unless you've actually played the Main, it can be easy to dismiss what I'm saying as the rantings of a Kessler-like nit.
The one thing that I'll agree is with ShawnFanningLimpDick's statement that my goal shoudln't be cashing 19k on a 10k event. He's correct, and in fact that was my thinking when I shoved the AK. At this point, I was fairly short stacked (less than half of average), with an M of less than 13. I could have probably folded to the money, but I didn't want to do that. I wasn't in desperation mode by any means, but I just felt that flatting with AK was too weak at this point, especially against a loose early raiser and a flatter. My thinking was that just raising might get either one or two calls, and then I'd be in a really tough c-bet spot if I missed the flop. And I thought, "Time to gamble... I can't fear the bubble, and I'm not in bad shape unless someone has KK or AA, which isn't that likely since I have both a K and an A."
Well, oops. Someone did have AA.
I still think I was gambling too much in that spot and should have either flatted or raised, as that corresponds more to my overall strategy, but I was thinking at the time that it was time to get some chips and make a shot at a deep run, rather than worrying about squeaking in to a 9k profit on a 10k buyin.
Theres nothing wrong with your ak shove. I absolutely hating flatting ak in a tourney.
I personally dont disagree with this at all.
Gl Druff.
Last edited by Ryland; 07-13-2013 at 05:37 PM.
TAKE IT DOWN Todd
Interesting article on Skill v Luck in poker, using 2011 WSOP data, endorsed Freakonomics author Steve Levitt
factoids of note:
skilled players (as determined using Bluff Mag, Poker Player & WSOP tour rankings for 2010) averaged +30% ROI...not skilled (basically everyone else) -15% ROI
btw, being a previous bracelet winner did not correlate with +roi...indeed, previously bracelet winners had -16% roi in the 2011 WSOP
skilled players enter more events (smooth out variance) plus play to get big stacks/or bust before the cash bubble draws near, then as the bubble come near, they play aggressively to futher increase stack size and to put themselves into the top finishing spots where the real money is....the payoffs of the tourney reward this approach
http://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levi...s/WSOP2011.pdf
my read:
long ago when i first started studying gambling seriously, i heard a quote that what separates the professional gambler from all others is the pro can take terrific bad beat/down variance and keep going....most of us can't do that (i certainly can't)
playing the strategy of get big early and play for top money is high variance, and being staked is probably the best thing to reduce risk/relieve stress if one is going to play big money events...self financing is likely too much strain most people--and especially a family guy...
unless one is a sick action junkie/degenerate gambler, its better to just play smaller tourneys for fun, or seek +ev poker cash games/other casino opportunities than trying to conqueor big tourneys
and also, who wants to spent 3 days at the sausage party that is the WSOP when one has a nice woman to play bouncy-bouncy with?
(long before there was a PFA i had my Grenade & Crossbones avatar at DD)
There's definitely different ways to play these tournaments. Do you think Annette/Selbst/Mercier/any of the aggressive internet players would fold this? Hell no.
Sure the amateur could have AA, but they likely also have AK, KQ, AQ suited or something retarded. Unless you have watched them for a few hours and know they're playing super tight why wouldn't you want to get it in good against them?
Deep stack tourneys are a long haul but you also have to pick your spots and chip up. Unless you love min cashing.
Obviously you know the table better than us todd but flatting is the worst option there in my opinion. I always get suspicious of guys who flat (if they are tight players). IMO shoving is fine but I am a fan of the raise and fold technique considering if he raises you know he has you beat like 100% of the time because he thinks you will never fold.
Looks like Glazier took it similarly to Druff.
Just kidding Druff, hope you're over it by now.
So youd like to fold out everything worse but then fold because you got the info you were looking for?
Just because some random fish plays a hand like aa doesnt mean he has it. Now having to ak blockers makes it more likely.
If your playing someone that you know if they 4 bet they have aa, but will fold out everything worse then KK then you shouldnt be 3 betting with kk. You should be faltting big pairs and 3 bet bluffing them like mad.
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