Back Druff to win the Main Event

[rickastley]

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?m...x=1&origin=MRL

obviously banned to US folk but the rest of you, place your bets now (no-one else has as yet)! thinking about putting micon in the market also...

nb. dash dudley is god

[PLOL]

Wish I had an account and I'd just bet against everybody (assuming the vig is reasonable and the markets are linked for margining). I'm guessing everybody is overpriced

[simpdog]

Wish I had an account and I'd just bet against everybody (assuming the vig is reasonable and the markets are linked for margining). I'm guessing everybody is overpriced

Looks like someone already took your idea...although you need a ton of cash to lay 400 to 1 odds for each player.

Big names are ~250-300 to 1 and then the rest are 400-500 to 1.

Micon did not make the cut. Todd how much did you pay to get on the list?

[Dan Druff]

That's great.

I had no idea until now.

I used to appear in the Pinnacle WSOP betting section, but mainly because the guy in charge was a friend of Dustin's and lurker on NWP, so he would make LOL last longer bets on there such as "Dustin Woolf or Todd Witteles" an in one case had me up against Sklansky in a last longer!

I have no idea who is in charge of Betfair's poker section, and why they chose me, but it's always flattering when that happens (even if it's just an old NWP lurker or current radio show listener.)

I was wondering if they just put all currently active bracelet winners as choices (in addition to well known pros without bracelets), but that's not the case. I searched for Eric Froelich, who has two bracelets and actively plays tournaments all year every year, and he wasn't up there.

[Dan Druff]

Anyway, this page is really confusing.

I see I have two numbers listed -- 450 ($5) and 500 ($3). I assume the dollar values mean the max available to bet.

At first I thought that these were +450 and +500, but apparently not. They're actually the multipler, so +450 is actually +45000, and +500 is actually +50000.

Still, these are terrible odds.

I would have to win the whole thing in order for you to get paid.

At first I thought I was listed as +500 to cash, which I thought might be reasonable, given the facts both that I don't have a wild play style, and that the field has a lot of donks and semi-donks at the beginning.

But 500-to-1 (and then 450-to-1) to WIN, in a field that is expected to be between 6000-7000 players?



That would be saying I have like a 12-14 times better chance of winning than the average player in the field, which is definitely NOT true.

[simpdog]

Anyway, this page is really confusing.

I see I have two numbers listed -- 450 ($5) and 500 ($3). I assume the dollar values mean the max available to bet.

At first I thought that these were +450 and +500, but apparently not. They're actually the multipler, so +450 is actually +45000, and +500 is actually +50000.

Still, these are terrible odds.

I would have to win the whole thing in order for you to get paid.

At first I thought I was listed as +500 to cash, which I thought might be reasonable, given the facts both that I don't have a wild play style, and that the field has a lot of donks and semi-donks at the beginning.

But 500-to-1 (and then 450-to-1) to WIN, in a field that is expected to be between 6000-7000 players?



That would be saying I have like a 12-14 times better chance of winning than the average player in the field, which is definitely NOT true.

Betfair is a betting exchange, so the values listed out there are all from people submitting bets against each person.

So you're betting against people, not the house....and the house takes I think ~5% cut on winning bets only.

[Dan Druff]

Anyway, this page is really confusing.

I see I have two numbers listed -- 450 ($5) and 500 ($3). I assume the dollar values mean the max available to bet.

At first I thought that these were +450 and +500, but apparently not. They're actually the multipler, so +450 is actually +45000, and +500 is actually +50000.

Still, these are terrible odds.

I would have to win the whole thing in order for you to get paid.

At first I thought I was listed as +500 to cash, which I thought might be reasonable, given the facts both that I don't have a wild play style, and that the field has a lot of donks and semi-donks at the beginning.

But 500-to-1 (and then 450-to-1) to WIN, in a field that is expected to be between 6000-7000 players?



That would be saying I have like a 12-14 times better chance of winning than the average player in the field, which is definitely NOT true.

Betfair is a betting exchange, so the values listed out there are all from people submitting bets against each person.

So you're betting against people, not the house....and the house takes I think ~5% cut on winning bets only.

Oh, okay.

So did I just get listed because someone put a reverse bet on me, hoping for takers?

Or did the house assign me as one of the players, and then people submit offers on either side?

[simpdog]

Betfair is a betting exchange, so the values listed out there are all from people submitting bets against each person.

So you're betting against people, not the house....and the house takes I think ~5% cut on winning bets only.

Oh, okay.

So did I just get listed because someone put a reverse bet on me, hoping for takers?

Or did the house assign me as one of the players, and then people submit offers on either side?

The house assigned you as a player yes. Not sure if you can email in to ask to put someone on list.

[rickastley]

I have no idea who is in charge of Betfair's poker section, and why they chose me

[Belly Buster]

Wish I had an account and I'd just bet against everybody (assuming the vig is reasonable and the markets are linked for margining). I'm guessing everybody is overpriced

Looks like someone already took your idea...although you need a ton of cash to lay 400 to 1 odds for each player.

Big names are ~250-300 to 1 and then the rest are 400-500 to 1.

Micon did not make the cut. Todd how much did you pay to get on the list?

It's a long time since I used betfair, but I think that you only have to have funds to lay the single highest price player in any one event, on the basis that only one person can win.

[ftpjesus]

Ok proof positive somebodys just throwing fucking darts to set odds for the ME.. Carbon literally has King Kong of the Donks Jamie Gold at 150-1 compared to Johnny Chan at 200-1 or Hellmuth 200-1. Jesus fuck are you kidding me Gold has a better chance to repeat then Johnny Chan or Hellmuth?? WTF are they smoking at Carbon sportsbook.. I Mean likely nobody on their list is going to win but the odds are asnine. Their own in house fav is Gus Hansen at 80-1 and well I give ya Ivey at 80-1 but I'd like to know how they base their consideration for how the hell they came up with these odds at all..

[Deal]

Aren't they expecting 7-8k runners? There is no way anyone in poker is even 100:1 in a field of 5000 runners. The game just has too much variance and the skill delta between any two of the top 30% of players is not very big at all. You can probably only writeoff 30% of the players as complete donkeys without a chance.

I would want 100:1 for GOD making the final table and 700:1 for him winning it. (Insert Ivey, cmoney, or any other player you want for GOD)

[anonamoose]

Aren't they expecting 7-8k runners? There is no way anyone in poker is even 100:1 in a field of 5000 runners. The game just has too much variance and the skill delta between any two of the top 30% of players is not very big at all. You can probably only writeoff 30% of the players as complete donkeys without a chance.

I would want 100:1 for GOD making the final table and 700:1 for him winning it. (Insert Ivey, cmoney, or any other player you want for GOD)

So you don't think that for the top of the top players over the course of playing this 100 times they wouldn't win once?

Maybe 100 times is a bit of a stretch, but I really don't think 200 to 1 is.

[Deal]

Aren't they expecting 7-8k runners? There is no way anyone in poker is even 100:1 in a field of 5000 runners. The game just has too much variance and the skill delta between any two of the top 30% of players is not very big at all. You can probably only writeoff 30% of the players as complete donkeys without a chance.

I would want 100:1 for GOD making the final table and 700:1 for him winning it. (Insert Ivey, cmoney, or any other player you want for GOD)

So you don't think that for the top of the top players over the course of playing this 100 times they wouldn't win once?

Maybe 100 times is a bit of a stretch, but I really don't think 200 to 1 is.

No I really don't think that is unreasonable. I also think that there are top ranked public opinion players that are that way because they luckboxed this one event. If Jerry Yang can win it then so could Micon. Variance is huge, the skill gap is fairly tight.

[PLOL]

Wish I had an account and I'd just bet against everybody (assuming the vig is reasonable and the markets are linked for margining). I'm guessing everybody is overpriced

Looks like someone already took your idea...although you need a ton of cash to lay 400 to 1 odds for each player.

Big names are ~250-300 to 1 and then the rest are 400-500 to 1.

Micon did not make the cut. Todd how much did you pay to get on the list?

You shouldn't need a lot of cash to lay 400 to 1 if they are linked for margining. That's how it used to be in the old InTrade days. I'd lay people 999 to 1 odds all the time

[PLOL]

Also, with all the Ivey talk, I saw yesterday he was 1 for 60 in WSOP cashes this year

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

Also, with all the Ivey talk, I saw yesterday he was 1 for 60 in WSOP cashes this year

not a good year for mr. ivey in 2 segments of the poker world...he's getting reamed online too...

[PLOL]

Also, with all the Ivey talk, I saw yesterday he was 1 for 60 in WSOP cashes this year

not a good year for mr. ivey in 2 segments of the poker world...he's getting reamed online too...

Haven't been following. What'd he do? Or just the whole FTP thing?

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

not a good year for mr. ivey in 2 segments of the poker world...he's getting reamed online too...

Haven't been following. What'd he do? Or just the whole FTP thing?

yeah that too...

but he's down like $2.5MM this year on full tilt...

[PLOL]

Haven't been following. What'd he do? Or just the whole FTP thing?

yeah that too...

but he's down like $2.5MM this year on full tilt...

Lol, by "reamed online" I thought you meant the nerds on 2+2 were chewing him out for something he did. Thanks for the info Mr. ChafedPenis