Originally Posted by matos
On a more serious note, how low would it have to go for you to buy? I gotta think if it hits sub 100$ it has to bounce back righ?
Any long term / high yield investment strategy based on an entry price larger than about $20 is a coin flip. If I could get money online for it, Id stack way the fuck up at $20 and dump at $80. 6 months from now, I expect we will see btc selling for $90 +/- $15.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
Its worth pointing out that all the money I made on btc (and there was some but not much) came from micro trading, eg dumping at peaks, buying in a trench, and turning maybe 1-3% profit per transaction. It worked but it wasnt going to make me rich, least of all because often it would re-trench and Id have to wait a couple of weeks for a recovery swing.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
There's rapidly increasing volume as BC fumbles around in the $100's.
More buyers are showing up.
It could stay in the $100's for quite a long while.
The law of my username implies this.
Buying a stock on a downtread with the intent to hit it big on some bounce back is the equivalent strategy as martingaling. You will win small often but get crushed enough to not make it worthwhile.I think it might be worth it to jump in right after it falls to sub-100 (though wait for it to start moving back up), then dump shortly after it pops over 100.
Inevitably this is the path to something very low. Whether it happens in the next few days, weeks, months, or years, I'm not sure, but it will happen.
Why not just invest in something volatile that you feel is good long term?
If and when they hit sub 100 and people want to get in they should have a solid strategy in place in preperation for you worst. I was planning on buying in at sub 100 but this time around I have a odd feeling they will start spazzing out in a massive negative decline if they do hit $100.
If the trend is DOWN then most times you lose. However, there is some coin to be made during capitulation.Buying a stock on a downtread with the intent to hit it big on some bounce back is the equivalent strategy as martingaling. You will win small often but get crushed enough to not make it worthwhile.
Why not just invest in something volatile that you feel is good long term?
This thing is so emotional with so many noobs that excessive, fearful selling can be an opportunity for a retracement/bounce. Fibonacci is my god. Big red candles. Hopefully, three.
But you don't get rich on a big move off the bottom. You just want to bag some spare change.
There are no big bidders anymore. It may drift up after getting hammered but it does this on bullshit fractional trades. When you want to sell after bounce nobody is there to take any size off your hands.. this may change but I almost lost my shirt at $287 long - the floor disappeared from under me.
Here is something to whack off to Sonatine
Why is $100 a magic number?
Last edited by Sanlmar; 01-14-2015 at 01:27 PM.
Remember when the genius Micon said he was in "this for the long term play" at like 700 and we speculated he had to have a few mill laying around??
LOLOL.
Sanlmar: What happened in February '14 with that wick going all the way down to $100? Did someone actually trade at $100 back then?
$100 is a magic number because....
Sonatine has fat thumbs and misclicked. Just a fucked up trade. Nobodies using it.
Sanlmar: What happened in February '14 with that wick going all the way down to $100? Did someone actually trade at $100 back then?
$100 is a magic number because....
I think that $100 represents a reasonable translation of resources to currency and has a psychological resonance with people subconsciously looking for dollar parity. Just a (my) theory.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
Yup.
Everything about bitcoin has been psychological.
The real value of a bitcoin is 0. Not $140, not $40, not $5, not $0.1, but actual zero.
It is not tangible. It is not made of any physical materials. It is not tied to any currency, nor is it the primary currency of any governments. It only has value because people on the internet decided it should be worth something, and then others on the internet decided they wanted to buy existing coins because they thought they might go up in value.
Now, you can try to say that about the US dollar. Other than the negligible value of the paper, it also has no value in materials, and only has value because people say it does. But the dollar is also the primary currency of a country of 315 million people, as well as tied to many other world currencies. And even currency of small countries has value, as it's still a government currency, and it's what must be used for commerce between citizens of that country and the outside world.
Bitcoin is different. You don't have to use bitcoin in any locality. It's always an alternative currency. It is not backed by or associated with any government. In addition, it is vulnerable to major hacks which rob value and erode confidence -- an issue not faced by fiat currencies. Most importantly, almost all of its current value was derived from hype. Bitcoin didn't start out at $1200, $600, $180, $40, or even $5. It started out with a tiny value, and rose rapidly once the public became aware and excited by it. It only rose because of speculation, hype, and market manipulation.
Bitcoin is really no different than Beanie Babies from the '90s, except Beanie Babies actually carried a $5 or so real value because they really were tangible, cute stuffed animals that appeal to kids. Bitcoin doesn't even have that going for it.
So the remaining value of bitcoin -- $178 as I type this -- will disappear as people finally lose their remaining hope and confidence in it. There isn't going to be another boom. There isn't going to be another lasting run-up. We've seen all of bitcoin's warts -- the hacks, the mining scams, MtGox -- and nobody feels too confident anymore. The excitement is gone, and the pessimism is increasing.
Talk of "Wow, bitcoin may be $20,000 one day!" has been replaced by "I think bitcoin will settle at a reasonable price and then become more widely adopted" among the enthusiasts. Even the most optimistic bitcoin fanatics are having trouble trumpeting bitcoin's potential financial upside with a straight face.
I think that 2015 is going to be the "Yeah, we're over this" year of bitcoin, much like 1981 was the year that the United States abruptly decided that it was over disco.
I've had similar thoughts after the past week watching this market. It's more feel than reasoning for me so I'm probably very wrong
And I think there's a lot of people who held on during its meteoric rise, thinking, "Okay, I'm a millionaire now... but you know what I REALLY want? To be a twenty-millionaire!"
And then when various degradations occurred, they dismissed it as volatility, and kept faith that bitcoin was a new paradigm which would eventually recover to an even higher rate than the onetime 1200 peak.
They took the mentality of, "If I'm not selling now, the value at the moment doesn't matter."
Now it's seemingly irreversably depressed, and yet many are still living in that same dream world, still holding on to the belief that a recovery is around the corner.
One day bitcoin will be near worthless, and they will be telling friends about how they could have been a millionaire, but had the "balls" to try for much more.
And who at this site hasnt been guilty of the same while sitting on a huge stack at some online poker table?
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
Pressing the "SELL" button is so easy physically it is virtually infantile, yet so hard psychologically many professionals with advanced degrees have covered the subject.
Druff, first please let me admire and congratulate you for your savvy bitcoin investment. I'm sure the many hours you've spent researching, thinking about and talking about bitcoin was well worth it given your meager 60 or 70 percent loss. We can all learn from you and even if we became half the investor as yourself I think it would still be considered a major accomplishment. That said, why on god's green earth would anybody put any credence with what you have to say regarding bitcoin or any other investment? I swear you came in your pants last night during radio during the bitcoin segment and it was comical. The only thing I could think about was this guy actually bought bitcoins at $600 plus when they were once a buck and now he's droning on like he's Warren Buffet. Dude you lost your investment. And you sold out which is almost the bigger crime. We're talking about 1.5 fucking bitcoin, not 1000. Hold on and pray. It isn't like you'll be writing it off as a tax loss next year.
lol. Good ol Druff. Always good for a laugh when it comes to investment, business and real estate advice.
You won't find any time where I said Bitcoin has a long term or even medium term future.
I did say you could gamble and try to play the temporary ups and downs.
The fact that I bought a whopping 2 coins, instead of investing serious money, shows that this wasn't a serious attempt at investment, but rather just getting on board for a bit for fun.
I sold now because I see the writing on the wall that it's never coming back. So why not cash out $200 instead of zero?
People should take me seriously because I was right all along that Bitcoin was a fad that would eventually collapse, and that the "long term" players were going to be sorry.
The ones who should be criticized here are the Bitcoin fanatics who insisted that the fluctuations were just "volatility" and that it's here to stay.
With that said, if you don't believe me, we can do a bet where I will lay you 2:1 odds that we won't see Bitcoin at $400/coin again by Dec 31, 2015.
Let me know if interested.
10 bitcoin bet payable to me at the point where it hits 400 or 5 bitcoin on Dec31 2015 to you if it never hits 400?2:1 odds that we won't see Bitcoin at $400/coin again by Dec 31, 2015.
Why would I ever be caught dead betting on bitcoin? Seriously. There's actual real money to be made in the market but bitcoin has never struck my fancy. Face it, you're a clown when it comes to investing or trading or whatever you choose to call it. I love ya don't get me wrong but shit and won't you feel stupid as fuck if this thing goes back to the moon whether it be this year, next or never? If the money didn't mean shit then hold on to the bitcoin. Miracles do happen.You won't find any time where I said Bitcoin has a long term or even medium term future.
I did say you could gamble and try to play the temporary ups and downs.
The fact that I bought a whopping 2 coins, instead of investing serious money, shows that this wasn't a serious attempt at investment, but rather just getting on board for a bit for fun.
I sold now because I see the writing on the wall that it's never coming back. So why not cash out $200 instead of zero?
People should take me seriously because I was right all along that Bitcoin was a fad that would eventually collapse, and that the "long term" players were going to be sorry.
The ones who should be criticized here are the Bitcoin fanatics who insisted that the fluctuations were just "volatility" and that it's here to stay.
With that said, if you don't believe me, we can do a bet where I will lay you 2:1 odds that we won't see Bitcoin at $400/coin again by Dec 31, 2015.
Let me know if interested.
Do the opposite of Druff. If he is selling, you should be buying for a bounce. Bitcoin $300 shortly.
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