Bitcoins are officially donkdown

[MumblesBadly]

Bitcoin price higher than gold.

During the gold bull market of the 70's, there were people lined up outside coin stores around the block waiting to get inside to buy coins. It didn't have a happy ending.

Yeah, but that precious metal bubble was because gold was partly marching in formulaic lockstep with silver when the Hunt brothers were trying to corner the futures market. The bubble burst shortly after the exchange raised the margin requirement, forcing the Hunts to quickly liquidate at unfavorable prices to try to cover their margin call.

Also, gold was partially linked with oil, and when the Saudis said "Fuck you, OPEC cheaters!" and opened the spigot on production in the mid 1980s, gold tumbled along with oil.

So, I'm not sure what is the modern equivalent co-factor regarding bitcoin. And China doesn't seem to really yet be doing much to shut down capital flight. And me thinks they don't mind the Yuan being a bit weak given risng wages there and the crackdown on corruption dampening profits.

[Sanlmar]

The Hunt Brothers and the Winkelvii.

Your post makes me want to revisit the Hunts version of

"The immense pain of losing a lot of money gambling in one day."

An epic tale. You know of a well done version of their story? Swear to god first time I read about them was in Sports Illustrated as a kid

[Mintjewlips]

 

 

 

 

 

sell at 1401

[Sanlmar]

The SEC approval of the BTC ETF's is the catalyst to this recent move.

If approved the Winkelvii's fund could see $300 million influx that will need matching underlying BTC asset. This is huge buying. Not to mention the SEC affirmation of BTC.

Imagine Black Rock or Vanguard (2 examples of ETF players) joining the action subsequently.

Risk/reward has gotta be 1:2 minimum. Hell, Bitcoin may not fall at all if SEC doesn't approve (Just joking Sonatine)

Here's some game theory regarding SEC approval:

You're the SEC guy leading the decision.
You approve and things go wrong - huge hack... further blockchain controversy like forking --> you lose your job

You approve and things go right ---> nobody gives you a pat on the back

There is a 3rd possibility ---> SEC renders NO decision. In which case, the ETF can proceed anyway.

I still say it's a no approval decision. But I think the gamble speculators are making is the right play.

This SEC thing is huge and I don't think we have yet to see the discussion heat up. Wait til next week.

[sonatine]

Bitcoin may not fall

[Mintjewlips]

Micon must be ballin right about now, right?

[Sanlmar]

Micon must be ballin right about now, right?

I don't know how he is coping with the pain right now. Xanax?

[Sanlmar]

PayPal isn't a currency, it merely houses and transfers currency. BitCoin is a currency because the value is independent, or at least nonparallel, with government currency.

“PayPal had these goals of creating a new currency. We failed at that, and we just created a new payment system.

I think Bitcoin has succeeded on the level of a new currency, but the payment system is somewhat lacking. It’s very hard to use, and that’s the big challenge on the Bitcoin side.”

- Peter Thiel

I left his second sentence in the interest of sanlmar honesty. Thiel's intent that PayPal be a new currency is more important as that was fact and the second sentence is his guess about Bitcoin.

The fact of the matter is that Bitcoin would immediately be rendered worthless if you closed the exchanges today. BTC only has value relative to fiat currency. You speculate then you are rewarded in dollars.

On the transaction/payment side it was enormously successful for the Chinese. Bitcoin wasn't the currency/yuan hedge but a method of transacting yuan to dollars or francs. It was just a method for exchange.

I leave the above to stand on its own merit.

I will add that Thiel is a made guy. He is a brilliant fag. Chess master at a young age. He was Milo at Stanford. He started a very conservative student paper that was nearly as outrageous as Milo. This is often forgotten or overlooked in his narrative. Love it.

Thiel was also very lucky. He didn't invent PayPal. That was another fellow he knew. He facilitated the development of PayPal and sold it to eBay literally a month before the Dot.com collapse for like $1.5billion. Luck meets opportunity or some such shit.

Nevertheless, he was theGodfather of the PayPal mafia. Elon Musk and the crew. Thiel is opinionated and balled hard with his hedge fund. He made big bets. He wasn't a Nancy-boy.

I agree with Thiel's politics and attitude. He has not gone soft and love that he is a Trump advisor. The similarity between Thiel and Milo amuses me. I swear Thiel may have been Milo's inspiration. I joked it would be god if Milo found a place on Trumps staff. We got the original article.

It's all Kabuki theater - but it's a fun rabbit hole if you like to waste time as I do.

Skip to 8:30 Gringo for PayPal & Bitcoin. Frankly, anything Thiel says on any subject is worth a listen.



Edit:
Here's a little Thiel trivia and an investing term that will win you the last round of Jeopardy

Mimetic markets. The notion that people simply imitate others actions. (Irrespective of any thought). Sound familiar?

Thiel holds the concept of mimetic investing dear to his core approach. He knows who the fish are.

[GringoStar]

...

Skip to 8:30 Gringo for PayPal & Bitcoin. Frankly, anything Thiel says on any subject is worth a listen.



Edit:
Here's a little Thiel trivia and an investing term that will win you the last round of Jeopardy

Mimetic markets. The notion that people simply imitate others actions. (Irrespective of any thought). Sound familiar?

Thiel holds the concept of mimetic investing dear to his core approach. He knows who the fish are.

Extremely interesting, I appreciate it. PayPal has definitely been flirting with digital currency for awhile now, as they quietly own Venmo and various other technologies in the field.

My feeling is that one of two things will happen:

1) PayPal stops flirting and integrates with BitCoin in a rudimentary way (probably by charging huge fees to cover variance) and bitcoin price actually does skyrocket, while other companies scramble to catch up by throwing around a lot of investments toward rolling out new interfaces and protocol.

2) PayPal makes or adopts a new State-approved crytocurrency that does not supply the same degree of anonymity and ultimately gets around the issue Thiel references of being able to pay your taxes. While he seems fairly principled in the way he spoke about the merit of crytocurrency being primarily in its anonymity, I feel that the only way that ease-of-use improves is by removing regulations and certain security measures, which means compromising with the men with the guns (unless Costa Rica wants to give it a go, but unlikely without a true military).

[Sanlmar]

SEC’s First Bitcoin ETF Deadline is Actually March 13, Not March 11
https://news.bitcoin.com/secs-first-...-not-march-11/

Nobody has the date right. Even more important is that this is a deadline only and the decision might be made before that.

The first clue will be the price action ... not the announcement

That will be the most fun this week either way. Buckle up

[sonatine]

The first clue will be the price action ...

yeah because 98% of the market movements havent been predicated on chinese whimsey or anything.

[GringoStar]

SEC’s First Bitcoin ETF Deadline is Actually March 13, Not March 11
https://news.bitcoin.com/secs-first-...-not-march-11/

Nobody has the date right. Even more important is that this is a deadline only and the decision might be made before that.

The first clue will be the price action ... not the announcement

That will be the most fun this week either way. Buckle up

Isnt going through on the 13th.

[Sanlmar]

The first clue will be the price action ...

yeah because 98% of the market movements havent been predicated on chinese whimsey or anything.

The market always seeks to hurt the most people with one move. China seems like a big enough target.

[Dan Druff]

Sitting on 10.3 BTC, most of which I acquired recently, and I just lost $1000 thanks to today's crash.

[snake_in_the_ass]

I'm predicting a run to $5000+

Not me. I think bitcoins are going to get crushed in March/April.

Down $100/coin in past few days.

[Sanlmar]

Drilling
Just saw $1160
New low

[MumblesBadly]

Drilling
Just saw $1160
New low

I find this comment funny when I remember back to where bitcoin was trading when I first criticized the bitcoin doomsday predictions on this forum as likely being indicative of overconfidence bias.

[MumblesBadly]

Sitting on 10.3 BTC, most of which I acquired recently, and I just lost $1000 thanks to today's crash.

And you are complaining because you actually have the ability using bitcoin to relatively cheaply circumvent financial transaction restrictions related to online gambing/poker so that you don't have to relocate out of the US to make a living playing poker? And the political party you supported in the 2000s passed the ridiculous law that enacted those restictions?

[Mintjewlips]

UH OH

[GringoStar]

Yeah, I don't want to be an alarmist, but anyone holding Bitcoin for short-term investments should sell. It will be back up, but the last few days appear to be the plateau before a dive.

However, it's a good opportunity to re-buy several hundred dollars lower in a month or two and then watch it go back up.