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Thread: Bitcoins are officially donkdown

  1. #7521
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    In case you didn't get the El Salvador reference...

    https://twitter.com/#!/x/status/1467000621354135555

  2. #7522
    Canadrunk limitles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    lol el salvadoraments
    What's a Rico to do?

    Name:  D1A1E55C-A46F-4979-A5F0-5BDE44946B36.jpeg
Views: 225
Size:  329.4 KB
    unbounded
    Never Forget



  3. #7523
    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    lol el salvadoraments
    Can you recommend an ETF that mimics el Salvador trades?


    As an act of contrition for ignoring you I offer this not entirely unrelated chart showing margin over recent history. You will not be able to turn your gaze from this chart. Remember what I told you about the taper in 2022 and may god protect you from harm.

    When you get called you sometimes sell because you have to. Your sales have nothing to do with the quality of the asset.

    The institutional ownership of Bitcoin is a fascinating and ironic thing.

    Dot.com looks like a pimple. Just incredible incredible stuff. Borrowing to invest was not wrong as it was fucking free but…….. not forever.

    Name:  EAEEBD01-4902-48C0-95F3-D0811D4034C3.png
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    Comments
      
      JACKDANIELS: big yikes
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 12-04-2021 at 09:23 AM.

  4. #7524
    Look at margin during early 2020. How it shrank. It’s like a polygraph. This is gambling porn at its finest.

    Do you appreciate how fucked up this is? Do you?

    The market is fucking degenerate. It’s like those pay per head sportsbooks that allow you to wager on credit.

    What percentage of Bitcoin is margin? Just asking.

  5. #7525
    In my previous post I used the term “invest”. In before you ridicule me for doing so. Of course, nobody was “investing”.

    It was a land grab. Not wrong but also not investing.

    Special bonus:
    You know what was ironic? I do not think Trump benefitted one lick. He was the only person of means in America who didn’t bink the insane asset growth we enjoyed. Even your elderly boomer mother’s retirement assets crushed.

  6. #7526
    Chart again, cause I can’t stop. I am raw from wacking off to this chart.

    Look at how the “margin” goes green after dot com and housing. Oh, the memories we shared.

    Care to draw the future? Come up to my room and I will show you my etchings Sonatine.

  7. #7527
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    I do not think Trump benefitted one lick.

    gazprom shares. aka why all the 'investigations' into biden's son stayed in the tabloids and out of courts. some threads are too expensive to pull.

    correct me if im wrong but institutional investors can write off losses a lot more effectively than retail, yes?

    also id love it if you explained to me like im 6 how the 2008 CDO implosion resulted in positive credit balances. like obviously im not really understanding what im looking at here.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  8. #7528
    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    I do not think Trump benefitted one lick.

    gazprom shares. aka why all the 'investigations' into biden's son stayed in the tabloids and out of courts. some threads are too expensive to pull.

    correct me if im wrong but institutional investors can write off losses a lot more effectively than retail, yes?

    also id love it if you explained to me like im 6 how the 2008 CDO implosion resulted in positive credit balances. like obviously im not really understanding what im looking at here.
    Lack of margin debt.

  9. #7529
    Quote Originally Posted by gimmick View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post


    gazprom shares. aka why all the 'investigations' into biden's son stayed in the tabloids and out of courts. some threads are too expensive to pull.

    correct me if im wrong but institutional investors can write off losses a lot more effectively than retail, yes?

    also id love it if you explained to me like im 6 how the 2008 CDO implosion resulted in positive credit balances. like obviously im not really understanding what im looking at here.
    Lack of margin debt.

    interesting... this is where i really understand how green i am with this; simple concepts like this are difficult to really see/understand in 3 dimensions.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  10. #7530
    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by gimmick View Post

    Lack of margin debt.

    interesting... this is where i really understand how green i am with this; simple concepts like this are difficult to really see/understand in 3 dimensions.
    It's only positive in the sense that there's a lack of interest to borrow and/or loan.

  11. #7531
    Here's the whole article...

    https://www.advisorperspectives.com/...3-6-in-october

    ...and here's the inverted margin debt and sp500...



    ...the way the first chart was calculated creates a positive number usually when margin debt goes down. Very rarely could balances go green without it.

  12. #7532
    I was getting sad that the community was finally getting so dumbed down that they found no enjoyment in this kind of thing, Gimmick.

  13. #7533
    Quote Originally Posted by gimmick View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post


    interesting... this is where i really understand how green i am with this; simple concepts like this are difficult to really see/understand in 3 dimensions.
    It's only positive in the sense that there's a lack of interest to borrow and/or loan.

    wait is it a lack of interest or is it the credit market risking off? two very different things, obviously.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  14. #7534
    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by gimmick View Post

    It's only positive in the sense that there's a lack of interest to borrow and/or loan.

    wait is it a lack of interest or is it the credit market risking off? two very different things, obviously.
    They're mostly connected, but the chart indicates behavior/status/leverage related to margin accounts. And both are connected to interest rates.

     
    Comments
      
      Sanlmar: Ain’t it fascinating? A picture is worth a thousand posts
      
      sonatine:

  15. #7535
    Risk tolerance and/or lack of options move all of them.

     
    Comments
      
      sonatine:

  16. #7536
    Note the date you start to hear about stocks like ATT offering 8% coupon yield….. which it does btw. It’s due for a pop.

    and yes, this has everything to do with BTC.

    This all plays out in the next 10 months not tomorrow.

  17. #7537
    Looking at those graphs gives me a sense of dread, 401k really has no great hedge capability….

    Maybe slide some $$$into emerging market and high yield bond funds…blah

    WWSD…

  18. #7538
    https://www.thetanarena.com

    https://www.twitter.com/thetanarena

    4 million players in one week.

    Thetan Coin has potential to 10X.

    Make up to $100 an hour playing this game?



  19. #7539
    REAL GAMES LIKE OTHELLO DON'T NEED THE BLOCKCHAIN

  20. #7540
    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    I do not think Trump benefitted one lick.

    gazprom shares. aka why all the 'investigations' into biden's son stayed in the tabloids and out of courts. some threads are too expensive to pull.

    correct me if im wrong but institutional investors can write off losses a lot more effectively than retail, yes?

    also id love it if you explained to me like im 6 how the 2008 CDO implosion resulted in positive credit balances. like obviously im not really understanding what im looking at here.
    The advanced 6 year old explanation, now that i have more time. The chart uses these numbers...

    https://www.finra.org/investors/lear...gin-statistics

    ...and does this (A+B)-C=X for every month.

    A=Free Credit Balances in Cash Accounts

    B=Free Credit Balances in Margin Accounts

    C=Debit Balances in Margin Accounts

    X="Credit Balance"

    What you don't see is collateral and number of accounts. It's always an aggregate and only tracks FINRA/NYSE clients customers balances.

    Margin Debt movements matter the most because when they go up they lower A and B. And when debt goes down it either frees credit or erases accounts.

    They generally still go towards the same direction, but the velocity isn't the same, because even though they interact with each other larger market forces have a larger impact on the direction. Most of the time when they do move to different directions it is related to boom/bust cycles.

    A quick glance at few months in 2007-2009. All numbers are in billions. First the Januaries.

    2007 (90+156)-285= -39 balance

    2008 (142+276)-328= +90 balance

    2009 (93+156)-178= +71 balance

    Then a few select months when something happened.

    In August 08 Free Credit Balance in Margin accounts was 359b. In September 193b. Cash went up 16b and debt 7b. August "credit balance" was +158b and September was +-0b. 166b got erased as Free Credit from margin accounts. Most likely because the assets depreciated and/or people got called. This is one of the few cases where a positive "credit balance" going down is a negative indicator.

    In October 08 things went back to "normal" regarding what the numbers indicated. Cash down 7b, Credit down 6b and Debt down 67b. The "credit balance" was +54b. And here the neutral balance going up was a negative indicator.

    Also since the left hand side of the equation (A+B) is Free Credit it sort of means that as long as it's above 0 they could get more margin debt. Obv impractical, risky and since the figure is an aggregate it represents millions of different people. But the basic assumption is that they either don't want to borrow or someone doesn't want to lend. And that's related to risk tolerance, investment options and few other things i can't think of now. Oh availability of credit to lend at least.

    I'll compile where we are now in another post.

     
    Comments
      
      sonatine: genuinely thankful for this quality analysis

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