Bitcoins are officially donkdown

[Daly]

The coming crypto winter may well provide a buying opportunity but remember Baron Rothschild's maxim: "the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets." We're not nearly at that stage yet.

The thing to remember is crypto isn't doing anything for society except perhaps allowing people to cross borders without their illicit funds on their person (or use the banking system which triggers global reporting) and get money onto poker/gambling sites.

We had no crypto, basically, a decade ago and now that we have it, those two things above are their only use. Both are marginally important.

We don't need crypto. These are not stocks. There are 19,000 cryptos...and you or I could get a guy on fiverrr to make us another one in a morning. They're pretty unimportant and that should be clear as day by now.

Today's crash will tell a lot about the future of the crypto market, in the coming days.

BTC breached $20k and is currently at 19.1k.

ETH breached $1k and is currently at 994.

If these both don't recover, it could normalize being under these milestones, and the freefall might continue.

there are absolutely zero signals that this is in any way the bottom.

crypto has had what, 4 lehman moments in the last week? we would have had a lot more if a few institutions actually capital called some of the most vulnerable exchanges; in at least one very public situation they decided not to and allowed the exchange to derisk voluntarily.

this is probably going to sound hyperbolic but the next week will determine if crypto exists as a popular phenomenon. if we see one or two big dominos get liquidated and tip over, i mean... thats show business; no business, no show.

perhaps the conversation needs to pivot from 'will it go lower/higher' to 'what could make crypto a speculative asset again'..

At 200 week moving average, no bulls to be found, at cost of production….. the above…..

Time to buy

[Daly]

That said - I’d use a tight stop.

[sonatine]

[BetCheckBet]

Remember when Dow Jones hit 19k.

But ya this is probably not that….

[Forum Wars]

In late 2017 media all around the world was astounded by Bitcoin's meteoric rise. You could have sold all your BTC at the then peak for $19,783.06.

And, well, in plain simple terms it is correct to be wishing you did that. Now you could buy in for the low low price of a hair over 19,000.

Just found that odd.

[BCR]

I’ve never believed it’s going to zero, because while it doesn’t have much utility, hiding money, buying drugs online, betting on sports, stashing money if you live in some shithole where the currency fluctuates 1000% in a week are all really lucrative niche utilities.

That said, I’m starting to believe the bearest of bears who called $8k.

If it goes to zero it’s because the government somehow killed it. But it also seems as likely to be at $80k also in two years because it’s felt dead a dozen other times.

[Sanlmar]

An older person told me that, “you will know you are old when you view the happenings in the world as if you are from another planet”.

The tweet below is real. I took a snapshot the other day but didn’t save link. The establishment thinks they can control the finance narrative with rainbows.

The Marines did the same thing. I posted that too.

I am a libertarian. I give no fucks about your sexual preference. (You have never seen my ridicule the gay community on these boards) I really don’t want to hear about it either. I grew up in an era when polite society really didn’t talk about sex publicly. Some innuendo perhaps and a wink.

Ponzi schemes and baseball have nothing to do with sex. The FTC invoking gay pride in Ponzi fraud just blows my mind.

It’s not my world anymore

[TheXFactor]

[Daly]

Buy signal for sure….. fuck this guy in the face

[BetCheckBet]

Kevin O’Leary stated he is totally standing by crypto and still believes it is wave of the future. Talked about how all the top mit computers science grads are going into blockchain stuff. O’Leary also has 16 percent of his investments in crypto.

The fact is there is so much infrastructure built around this it certainly won’t die for quite some time. That being said I think alt coins will never be the same . I feel bitcoin probably won’t fall much further but what the hell do I know?

[sonatine]

Kevin O’Leary stated he is totally standing by crypto and still believes it is wave of the future. Talked about how all the top mit computers science grads are going into blockchain stuff. O’Leary also has 16 percent of his investments in crypto.

The fact is there is so much infrastructure built around this it certainly won’t die for quite some time. That being said I think alt coins will never be the same . I feel bitcoin probably won’t fall much further but what the hell do I know?

why would you feel that it wont fall much further? the driving factor behind these price drops are liquidations, not sentiment.

example; if a single bank margin calls saylor, microservices has to sell. they have 250m cash, 0 assets.

so they sell, and they drive the price lower. which results in more margin calls and more liquidations.

there are so many ... soooooo many 'funds' that have that sort of exposure.

[Dan Druff]

This really looks more like a massive correction than just a dip.

I think we can learn a lot by looking at the end of 2017. Bitcoin and other crytpos had just finished a huge run-up. How huge? In March 2016, BTC was about $400. By December 2017, it was almost $20k.

However, this was a time when it was believed crypto was on its way to widescale commercial adoption. When that didn't happen, we saw the crash of early 2018, and that seemed to be that.

But it wasn't. Somehow -- for reasons I can't explain -- there was crypto exuberance again, despite no good reason for it. Unlike earlier crypto run-ups (optimism for what it could be) and the 2016-2017 run-up (incorrect belief of impending widescale popular adoption), one could not rationally explain why crypto was suddenly hot again.

The NFT and shitcoin boom of 2021 -- probably somewhat inspired by Gamestop and other "dead" stock shenanigans early that year -- pushed it up even further.

But we all knew there was no utility for the vast, vast majority of this, and the price just seemed inflated as everyone jumped on the speculation train.

This seems to be the correction that has been inevitable. How far can it correct?

Remember, BTC was $400 in March of 2016.

[BetCheckBet]

Kevin O’Leary stated he is totally standing by crypto and still believes it is wave of the future. Talked about how all the top mit computers science grads are going into blockchain stuff. O’Leary also has 16 percent of his investments in crypto.

The fact is there is so much infrastructure built around this it certainly won’t die for quite some time. That being said I think alt coins will never be the same . I feel bitcoin probably won’t fall much further but what the hell do I know?

why would you feel that it wont fall much further? the driving factor behind these price drops are liquidations, not sentiment.

example; if a single bank margin calls saylor, microservices has to sell. they have 250m cash, 0 assets.

so they sell, and they drive the price lower. which results in more margin calls and more liquidations.

there are so many ... soooooo many 'funds' that have that sort of exposure.

Again what do I know (I am going by feel here not technical analysis). Which as you know I am very critical of using such an analysis myself.

I understand what liquidations are at a basic level but apparently people have been running bots that look for accounts to exploit that are on the verge of being liquidated. And when these bots cause the liquidation apparently they receive some sort of fucking bounty?

Can someone please explain how the fuck this happens in simple terms?

See article below
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/cr...110000697.html

[Sanlmar]

why would you feel that it wont fall much further? the driving factor behind these price drops are liquidations, not sentiment.

example; if a single bank margin calls saylor, microservices has to sell. they have 250m cash, 0 assets.

so they sell, and they drive the price lower. which results in more margin calls and more liquidations.

there are so many ... soooooo many 'funds' that have that sort of exposure.

Who would have thought that “foolishly spending all your money on material things” at the top would have been the most successful decision you could have made

[Gordman]

Kevin O’Leary stated he is totally standing by crypto and still believes it is wave of the future. Talked about how all the top mit computers science grads are going into blockchain stuff. O’Leary also has 16 percent of his investments in crypto.

The fact is there is so much infrastructure built around this it certainly won’t die for quite some time. That being said I think alt coins will never be the same . I feel bitcoin probably won’t fall much further but what the hell do I know?

why would you feel that it wont fall much further? the driving factor behind these price drops are liquidations, not sentiment.

example; if a single bank margin calls saylor, microservices has to sell. they have 250m cash, 0 assets.

so they sell, and they drive the price lower. which results in more margin calls and more liquidations.

there are so many ... soooooo many 'funds' that have that sort of exposure.

[BetCheckBet]

Also right now there is a whale with 200 million Solana who faces liquidation if Solana hits 22 dollars. Currently at 29. People are actively trying to find out who the whale is and have him reduce his position for fear about what this liquidation could do to Solana as a whole.

https://definalist.notion.site/Solan...b062f12a008d6b

[sonatine]

Also right now there is a whale with 200 million Solana who faces liquidation if Solana hits 22 dollars. Currently at 29. People are actively trying to find out who the whale is and have him reduce his position for fear about what this liquidation could do to Solana as a whole.

https://definalist.notion.site/Solan...b062f12a008d6b

SFO

[gimmick]

No idea about the bottom. Closest thing to calling the top for me was this from 22nd October last year...

"I hate giving people financial advice online, because the upside isn't worth the downside. That said, i'd sell right about now"

...couldn't even tell why exactly i felt around 64k was the top. I also called the 2018 crash. Fairly sure both were more about psychology than charts. There probably was a reason to be dialed in on both occasions and those were the only sell signals I've ever given in this thread.

[TheXFactor]

Wages are too fucking high.
Target paying $24 an hour?
In-in-out Burger paying $17 an hour.
Most other jobs paying $15 an hour?

How about you're all fucking fired, then offer to rehire at $7.25 an hour with zero benefits?

Rich CEO's have determined that everyone except them are making too much money.

Time for another recession.

[BCR]

This really looks more like a massive correction than just a dip.

I think we can learn a lot by looking at the end of 2017. Bitcoin and other crytpos had just finished a huge run-up. How huge? In March 2016, BTC was about $400. By December 2017, it was almost $20k.

However, this was a time when it was believed crypto was on its way to widescale commercial adoption. When that didn't happen, we saw the crash of early 2018, and that seemed to be that.

But it wasn't. Somehow -- for reasons I can't explain -- there was crypto exuberance again, despite no good reason for it. Unlike earlier crypto run-ups (optimism for what it could be) and the 2016-2017 run-up (incorrect belief of impending widescale popular adoption), one could not rationally explain why crypto was suddenly hot again.

The NFT and shitcoin boom of 2021 -- probably somewhat inspired by Gamestop and other "dead" stock shenanigans early that year -- pushed it up even further.

But we all knew there was no utility for the vast, vast majority of this, and the price just seemed inflated as everyone jumped on the speculation train.

This seems to be the correction that has been inevitable. How far can it correct?

Remember, BTC was $400 in March of 2016.

As far as I can tell, it’s totally a gamble on some millennial group psychology religion.

It has some utility for those of us who like grey market shit, but even drug dealers and shady poker site and sportbooks like to know what they’re holding. The utility for them is not needing to convert to cash immediately, but when something is swinging 50% in a month, it turns accepting btc into becoming another speculator.

Even after a decade, no one can really explain the need for it other than as a store of wealth.

I always find it amusing how btc enthusiasts hate gold bugs, but everything they say is what gold bugs have always said. Too much printed money. Fuck the traditional banking system. Both started in libertarian circles.

If I click on any btc news it’s either going to be an old man who hates it, or some young enthusiast talking about the next company ready to adopt it. But I’ve been hearing about the mainstreaming of BTC for 8 years now.

Like we need more ways to pay for shit. I have ten ways to pay for shit now. I’ve been to concerts where I can’t buy a beer with cash or credit card. I’m sitting there with a roll of hundreds in my pocket needing to pull up Apple Pay or google pay. Kids scanning QR codes for payment systems I didn’t know existed.

I don’t want to have to go through three factor authentication and hope some hacker doesn’t steal my btc to buy a beer. There are just way more convenient ways to pay for shit than btc will ever be, unless you’ve converted into a bitpay card, in which case it’s fiat currency anyway at that point.

I don’t doubt what BCB said, that a bunch of young minds are flocking to blockchain. It’s been trendy. But we also live in a world where 18 year olds call 28 year olds boomers, so trying to pick some arbitrary point that’s the bottom when it could all of a sudden flip and become their uncles crypto and nerdy to own is impossible to guess.

I liked your comment -for reasons I can’t explain. That statement describes all of crypto. At least early, when the economy hit a snag, it rose. Now it’s just in lockstep with the economy as a whole.

I laugh at myself looking at it drop and feeling cheap. Like I’m thinking what if it drops to $8k as I’ve seen bears say, how much would I buy? But at whatever price, I’m just gambling because I wouldn’t pay $8k for an ounce of gold. I’m gambling on it continuing to be the most popular millennial toy in an economy with inflation through the roof and young people continuing to have less disposable income with their salaries becoming less. The get your paycheck in crypto as a hedge against inflation argument is now a lie and untrue statement.

I legit laugh at myself with my thumb hovering over the buy button all the way down and thanking god I never push it. Something feeling cheap is only relative to what it was priced at one point, not it’s actual value.


I liked your post because it didn’t claim any insight. I feel like I’ve never read any btc explanation that has any true insight, yet all claim to. People feel very strongly one way or the other without the ability to articulate it, because it can’t be explained. It’s a pure gamble. The market is always a group psychology experiment, but btc is one on steroids.

If everyone who says buy or everyone who says it’s going to zero prefaced their recommendation with your -for reasons I can’t explain-it would be a lot more honest.