No Country For Thin Men: 75% Of Americans To Be Obese By 2020

[mtnDew]

While much heart palpitations are generated every month based on how much of a seasonal adjustment factor is used to fudge US employment, many forget that a much more serious long term issue for the US (assuming anyone cares what happens in the long run) is a far more ominous secular shift in US population - namely the fact that everyone is getting fatter fast, aka America's "obesity epidemic." And according to a just released analysis by BNY ConvergEx' Nicholas Colas, things are about to get much worse, because as the OECD predicts, by 2020 75% of US the population will be obese. What this implies for the tens of trillions in underfunded healthcare "benefits" in the future is all too clear. In the meantime, thanks to today's economic "news", fat people everywhere can get even fatter courtesy of ever freer money from the Chairman, about to be paradropped once more to keep nominal prices high and devalue the dollar even more in the great "race to debase". Our advice - just pretend you are going to college and take out a $100,000 loan, spending it all on Taco Bells. But don't forget to save enough for the latest iPad, and the next latest to be released in a few weeks

Continued - http://www.zerohedge.com/news/no-cou...-be-obese-2020

[408Mike]

Firstly the standards by which obesity are measured need to be overhauled and secondly technology improves so fast you never know what is around the corner. I would say by 2020 nothing will have really changed (meaning the rise in obesity will basically be countered by emerging technologies as well as a trend shift away from unhealthy food etc). I am a big proponent of Le Chatelier's principle and I find it applies rather well to a complex system such as the general community type that humans live in. As the populations weight increases other factors will also rise to counter the increase and thus balance will be maintained.

For those who have never heard of it- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le_Chatelier's_principle

[Steve-O]

Meh, firstly the standards by which obesity are measured need and overhaul and secondly technology improves so fast you never know what is around the corner. I would say by 2020 either nothing will have really changed (meaning the rise in obesity will basically be countered by emerging technologies as well as a trend shift away from unhealthy food etc). I am a big proponent of Le Chatelier's principle and I find it applies rather well to a complex system such as the community type that humans live in. As the populations weight increases other factors will also rise to counter it and thus balance is maintained.

For those who have never heard of it- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le_Chatelier's_principle

^^^^What He said

The typical method used to determine obesity, BMI, is as useless as GDP is for determining the strength of an economy. Without looking at each individuals' bodyfat % and the distribution of their bodyfat (if two people have the same bodyfat % but one has a smaller waist than chest and the other has a smaller chest than waist one is far more likely to have health issues --I'll let you figure out which one) you really can't say one person is healthier than another. I know plenty of people who are considered obese that are much healthier than their slimmer counterparts.

When I was 25 I was 190 lbs, worked out 5 days a week, had a 31 inch waist, had perfect blood pressure and cholesterol levels and was considered "overweight" when I got life insurance. At 35, I work out once or twice a week, weigh 165 lbs, have a 32 inch waist, blood pressure is still perfect and cholesterol is still good (although not as good as it used to be) and I'm considered ultra-preffered or whatever the term is. Basically, the whole thing is so bassakwards that I'm getting a better rate at 35 than 25 for Term Life, and there isn't a chance in hell I'm healthier! All because my BMI.

[408Mike]

Meh, firstly the standards by which obesity are measured need and overhaul and secondly technology improves so fast you never know what is around the corner. I would say by 2020 either nothing will have really changed (meaning the rise in obesity will basically be countered by emerging technologies as well as a trend shift away from unhealthy food etc). I am a big proponent of Le Chatelier's principle and I find it applies rather well to a complex system such as the community type that humans live in. As the populations weight increases other factors will also rise to counter it and thus balance is maintained.

For those who have never heard of it- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le_Chatelier's_principle

^^^^What He said

The typical method used to determine obesity, BMI, is as useless as GDP is for determining the strength of an economy. Without looking at each individuals' bodyfat % and the distribution of their bodyfat (if two people have the same bodyfat % but one has a smaller waist than chest and the other has a smaller chest than waist one is far more likely to have health issues --I'll let you figure out which one) you really can't say one person is healthier than another. I know plenty of people who are considered obese that are much healthier than their slimmer counterparts.

When I was 25 I was 190 lbs, worked out 5 days a week, had a 31 inch waist, had perfect blood pressure and cholesterol levels and was considered "overweight" when I got life insurance. At 35, I work out once or twice a week, weigh 165 lbs, have a 32 inch waist, blood pressure is still perfect and cholesterol is still good (although not as good as it used to be) and I'm considered ultra-preffered or whatever the term is. Basically, the whole thing is so bassakwards that I'm getting a better rate at 35 than 25 for Term Life, and there isn't a chance in hell I'm healthier! All because my BMI.

Funny hearing you talk about BMI saying you are healthier now when in fact you were healthier then. For years my doctor used to laugh and say according to the books I am morbidly obese yet in truth I was the healthiest patient he had. When I was hmmm 22-23 I weighed between 230-250 which, at 5ft9, sounds like a lot. The healthy weight being roughly 155 or so so the books say had me almost 100lbs overweight yet my bodyfat has never been higher than 12-14%, ever in my life. Morbidly obese my ass lol.

[DirtyB]

^^^^What He said

The typical method used to determine obesity, BMI, is as useless as GDP is for determining the strength of an economy. Without looking at each individuals' bodyfat % and the distribution of their bodyfat (if two people have the same bodyfat % but one has a smaller waist than chest and the other has a smaller chest than waist one is far more likely to have health issues --I'll let you figure out which one) you really can't say one person is healthier than another. I know plenty of people who are considered obese that are much healthier than their slimmer counterparts.

When I was 25 I was 190 lbs, worked out 5 days a week, had a 31 inch waist, had perfect blood pressure and cholesterol levels and was considered "overweight" when I got life insurance. At 35, I work out once or twice a week, weigh 165 lbs, have a 32 inch waist, blood pressure is still perfect and cholesterol is still good (although not as good as it used to be) and I'm considered ultra-preffered or whatever the term is. Basically, the whole thing is so bassakwards that I'm getting a better rate at 35 than 25 for Term Life, and there isn't a chance in hell I'm healthier! All because my BMI.

Funny hearing you talk about BMI saying you are healthier now when in fact you were healthier then. For years my doctor used to laugh and say according to the books I am morbidly obese yet in truth I was the healthiest patient he had. When I was hmmm 22-23 I weighed between 230-250 which, at 5ft9, sounds like a lot. The healthy weight being roughly 155 or so so the books say had me almost 100lbs overweight yet my bodyfat has never been higher than 12-14%, ever in my life. Morbidly obese my ass lol.

I worked in population health management for 5 years. BMI is an extremely good tool to get a quick gauge of someone's health when you only know their height and weight. You are talking about what is very accurately called "The Bodybuilder Problem" with BMI. It affects a very small percentage of people. Just because you have a low body fat percentage doesn't make you healthy either. Injecting synthetic testosterone isn't exactly good for you.

As for the OP, it's complete bullshit. In 2008, 33.8% of American adults were obese. Today it's 35.7%. And this guy thinks that number is going to double in the next 8 years? No fucking way.

[408Mike]

Funny hearing you talk about BMI saying you are healthier now when in fact you were healthier then. For years my doctor used to laugh and say according to the books I am morbidly obese yet in truth I was the healthiest patient he had. When I was hmmm 22-23 I weighed between 230-250 which, at 5ft9, sounds like a lot. The healthy weight being roughly 155 or so so the books say had me almost 100lbs overweight yet my bodyfat has never been higher than 12-14%, ever in my life. Morbidly obese my ass lol.

I worked in population health management for 5 years. BMI is an extremely good tool to get a quick gauge of someone's health when you only know their height and weight. You are talking about what is very accurately called "The Bodybuilder Problem" with BMI. It affects a very small percentage of people. Just because you have a low body fat percentage doesn't make you healthy either. Injecting synthetic testosterone isn't exactly good for you.

As for the OP, it's complete bullshit. In 2008, 33.8% of American adults were obese. Today it's 35.7%. And this guy thinks that number is going to double in the next 8 years? No fucking way.

BMI can only be a useful "quick tool" when you are screening for extremes. What do you really "know" about a male height 5ft7 weight 172? Female height 5ft10 wight 169.2? It's fucking useless, unless you hear "male 5ft9 weight 413lbs" you can not infer a damn thing.

Also I staunchly support doctor supervised HRT, I would love to hear you offer evidence that shows it's usage presents a health risk and seriously recommend aging males not go on it. If you want to compare apples to apples you would be shocked at how little an impact high doses had on me. Most users will report back similarly, steroids are just not the boogeyman you sometimes hear that they are. If you have a choice between a sedentary male with an average diet vs an active adult who also has an average diet, works out in the gym and runs 3x per week and uses some testosterone, which would you assume to be healthier? Happier? Longer life expectancy?

[DRK Star]

While reading this article, I ate two chicken wings.


:realtalk

[mtnDew]

While reading this article, I ate two chicken wings.


:realtalk

[BCR]

Funny hearing you talk about BMI saying you are healthier now when in fact you were healthier then. For years my doctor used to laugh and say according to the books I am morbidly obese yet in truth I was the healthiest patient he had. When I was hmmm 22-23 I weighed between 230-250 which, at 5ft9, sounds like a lot. The healthy weight being roughly 155 or so so the books say had me almost 100lbs overweight yet my bodyfat has never been higher than 12-14%, ever in my life. Morbidly obese my ass lol.

I worked in population health management for 5 years. BMI is an extremely good tool to get a quick gauge of someone's health when you only know their height and weight. You are talking about what is very accurately called "The Bodybuilder Problem" with BMI. It affects a very small percentage of people. Just because you have a low body fat percentage doesn't make you healthy either. Injecting synthetic testosterone isn't exactly good for you.

As for the OP, it's complete bullshit. In 2008, 33.8% of American adults were obese. Today it's 35.7%. And this guy thinks that number is going to double in the next 8 years? No fucking way.

It's a badly conceived tool. There are many average Joe's I know who might be carpenters, drywall guys, who are 5'7 167, with basically no fat. Just tightly wound guys, and that would be overweight. The bigger LOL is that the fear of girl's eating disorders caused them to apply the same chart to both women and men. I've never met a 5'7 167 girl in my life who wasn't real fat, and the chart has them as barely overweight with the guy. It's error lies far beyond BB'ers, the "Bodybuilding Problem" could be described as "the any active man with a job that's not in an office problem."

When a 5'6 girl who weighs 154 lbs is considered healthy, that's laughable. I've never met a girl that size who isn't at least 20-25 pounds overweight.


It is better than nothing though if you're an actuary, I'll agree with that.

[Dan Druff]

75% of people who appear on Live at the Bike are overweight.

[mtnDew]

75% of people who appear on Live at the Bike are overweight.

well, there you go! Hardcore proof.

+ Fat (smelly) people should be banned from playing (live) poker.

[Vwls]

A large percentage of Americans are overweight and this is a direct consequence of a culture of wealth. Where there is excess money, people overeat. I do find Mikey's reference to Le Chatelier's principle interesting, but the fact remains that no matter how you draw your statistics, Americans are fucking fat.

[Vwls]

While reading this article, I ate two chicken wings.

:realtalk

If there was only some sort of system on this board to give kudos for great posts.

[Steve-O]

Funny hearing you talk about BMI saying you are healthier now when in fact you were healthier then. For years my doctor used to laugh and say according to the books I am morbidly obese yet in truth I was the healthiest patient he had. When I was hmmm 22-23 I weighed between 230-250 which, at 5ft9, sounds like a lot. The healthy weight being roughly 155 or so so the books say had me almost 100lbs overweight yet my bodyfat has never been higher than 12-14%, ever in my life. Morbidly obese my ass lol.

I worked in population health management for 5 years. BMI is an extremely good tool to get a quick gauge of someone's health when you only know their height and weight. You are talking about what is very accurately called "The Bodybuilder Problem" with BMI. It affects a very small percentage of people. Just because you have a low body fat percentage doesn't make you healthy either. Injecting synthetic testosterone isn't exactly good for you.

As for the OP, it's complete bullshit. In 2008, 33.8% of American adults were obese. Today it's 35.7%. And this guy thinks that number is going to double in the next 8 years? No fucking way.

And judging a person's ability at a poker table by how they stack their chips is a quick way to guage their experience, WHEN YOU HAVE NOTHING ELSE TO GO ON. Judging a person's height and weight tells you very little about their health. Saying Americans are overweight or obese is subjective; overweight to what? and what are the real-world implications of being a 27 on the BMI compared to a 23?

Hate quoting the Wiki, but:

"Mathematician Keith Devlin and a restaurant industry association The Center for Consumer Freedom argue that the error in the BMI is significant and so pervasive that it is not generally useful in evaluation of health.[19][20] University of Chicago political science professor Eric Oliver says BMI is a convenient but inaccurate measure of weight, forced onto the populace, and should be revised.[21]

"A study published by JAMA in 2005 showed that "overweight" people had a similar relative risk of mortality to "normal" weight people as defined by BMI, while "underweight" and "obese" people had a higher death rate"

"In an analysis of 40 studies involving 250,000 people, patients with coronary artery disease with "normal" BMIs were at higher risk of death from cardiovascular disease than people whose BMIs put them in the "overweight" range (BMI 25–29.9).[23] In the "overweight", or intermediate, range of BMI (25–29.9), the study found that BMI failed to discriminate between bodyfat percentage and lean mass. The study concluded that "the accuracy of BMI in diagnosing obesity is limited, particularly for individuals in the intermediate BMI ranges, in men and in the elderly. ... These results may help to explain the unexpected better survival in overweight/mild obese patients."[17]

"A 2010 study that followed 11,000 subjects for up to eight years concluded that BMI is not a good measure for the risk of heart attack, stroke or death. A better measure was found to be the waist-to-height ratio"

"BMI is particularly inaccurate for people who are fit or athletic, as the higher muscle mass tends to put them in the "overweight" category by BMI, even though their body fat percentages frequently fall in the 10-15% category, which is below that of a more sedentary person of average build who has a "healthy" BMI number"


I don't think there is anythnig in the above studies that makes BMI calculations any more relevant than the human eye. Like 408Mike said, the extremes are where the dangers are, you can see when someone is grossly overweight (fat) and when they are sickly thin. BMI was first developed in the mid-1800's, I think it's time we moved on to something a little more modern.

[badbilly32]

im sooo glad ive peeled off 35 lbs in the last three months and am now at a trim 130,i will now be able to make fun of all those fat lazy fucks in 3 years.......hahahahaha all you fat fucks!(i really miss the bevis and buthead that i used to put in this spot)

[Vwls]

i really miss the bevis and buthead that i used to put in this spot

[ErickAA]

The scary thing is that it seems like most doctors are completely unable to use common sense or their own eye, they rely solely on BMI and do not even understand its severe limitations. I went into the doctor for a sports injury not too long ago and the doctor looked at a BMI chart, determined I was obese and asked if I wanted nutrition counseling. This is despite the fact she could look at me with her own eyes and see I was not obese (5'11", 195).

[badbilly32]

i really miss the bevis and buthead that i used to put in this spot

as i get older' its the simple things in life that make me ohhh so happy tyty vwls

[Vwls]

That was one of the original collection of emoticons I installed on NWP... it made it over to DD along with a few others. If Druff wants, I can send him the collection to install here as well, but in the meantime, try searching through Photobucket.com for the ones you like - they are all linkable.

[408Mike]

Funny hearing you talk about BMI saying you are healthier now when in fact you were healthier then. For years my doctor used to laugh and say according to the books I am morbidly obese yet in truth I was the healthiest patient he had. When I was hmmm 22-23 I weighed between 230-250 which, at 5ft9, sounds like a lot. The healthy weight being roughly 155 or so so the books say had me almost 100lbs overweight yet my bodyfat has never been higher than 12-14%, ever in my life. Morbidly obese my ass lol.

I worked in population health management for 5 years and this makes me an expert. BMI is an extremely good tool to get a quick gauge of someone's health when you only know their height and weight. Here, let me support my position with facts data and logic.

Does anyone else not hear anything Barry is saying? It sounds like fucking crickets, I must have a bad connection. Barry, you there? Hello?