UFC 155 Predictions

[Hockey Guy]

Main Card:

Junior dos Santos (-220) vs. Cain Velasquez (+180) I had JDS by KO the first time so I see no reason to change.
Alan Belcher (-110) vs. Yushin Okami (-110) Very impressed by Belcher the last few fights. Okami's a big guy but I think he'll handle the size & keep it standing.
Jim Miller (-220) vs. Joe Lauzon (+180) Lauzon should never be this big of a dog. I like Jim Miller but he's not going to submit Lauzon. No way.
Constantinos Philippou (-110) vs. Tim Boetsch (-110) Boetsch, I feel, is over rated. I have Philippou by KO. He's just too fast.
Chris Leben (-150) vs. Derek Brunson (+130) We'll see if the year long drug suspension will affect Leben. Probably a good comeback fight opponent for "The Crippler"

Undercard:

Max Holloway (-380) vs. Leonard Garcia (+260) I'll take him just because he always seems to get odd judges decisions. Shouldn't be that big of a dog either. Good value & Garcia is entertaining but not very technical.
John Moraga (-200) vs. Chris Cariaso (+170) I like this matchup. Another good value as an underdog.
Todd Duffee (-300) vs. Phil De Fries (+250) Not sure why I'm picking him but if Duffee's head is in the game it could be an early night. If it goes beyond round #1 it could be a different story.
Michael Johnson (-240) vs. Myles Jury (+200) Liked his heart against Castillo but I'm not sold on the "NEW" Michael Johnson. I think he's average at best.
Erik Perez (-420) vs. Byron Bloodworth (+335) No idea just a guess.
Melvin Guillard (-130) vs. Jamie Varner (+110) 2 inconsistent performers. Who shows up? FOTN candidate.
Eddie Wineland (-115) vs. Brad Pickett (-105) FOTN candidate. This one will be fun. Good matchup but I'll go with Wineland's power & length.

Who you got? Who's the best dog to take a flyer on & why?
I have Lauzon as my best underdog because I actually think he will win. The other dogs I've picked have good value but I'm not necessarily convinced they win outright.

What do you think?

[ShadyJ]

Main Card:

Junior dos Santos (-220) vs. Cain Velasquez (+180) I had JDS by KO the first time so I see no reason to change.
Alan Belcher (-110) vs. Yushin Okami (-110) Very impressed by Belcher the last few fights. Okami's a big guy but I think he'll handle the size & keep it standing.
Jim Miller (-220) vs. Joe Lauzon (+180) Lauzon should never be this big of a dog. I like Jim Miller but he's not going to submit Lauzon. No way.
Constantinos Philippou (-110) vs. Tim Boetsch (-110) Boetsch, I feel, is over rated. I have Philippou by KO. He's just too fast.
Chris Leben (-150) vs. Derek Brunson (+130) We'll see if the year long drug suspension will affect Leben. Probably a good comeback fight opponent for "The Crippler"

Undercard:

Max Holloway (-380) vs. Leonard Garcia (+260) I'll take him just because he always seems to get odd judges decisions. Shouldn't be that big of a dog either. Good value & Garcia is entertaining but not very technical.
John Moraga (-200) vs. Chris Cariaso (+170) I like this matchup. Another good value as an underdog.
Todd Duffee (-300) vs. Phil De Fries (+250) Not sure why I'm picking him but if Duffee's head is in the game it could be an early night. If it goes beyond round #1 it could be a different story.
Michael Johnson (-240) vs. Myles Jury (+200) Liked his heart against Castillo but I'm not sold on the "NEW" Michael Johnson. I think he's average at best.
Erik Perez (-420) vs. Byron Bloodworth (+335) No idea just a guess.
Melvin Guillard (-130) vs. Jamie Varner (+110) 2 inconsistent performers. Who shows up? FOTN candidate.
Eddie Wineland (-115) vs. Brad Pickett (-105) FOTN candidate. This one will be fun. Good matchup but I'll go with Wineland's power & length.

Who you got? Who's the best dog to take a flyer on & why?
I have Lauzon as my best underdog because I actually think he will win. The other dogs I've picked have good value but I'm not necessarily convinced they win outright.

What do you think?

I thought I was the only one who said JDS would beat Cain. I think Cain has a much better chance in this fight then the 1st. I think hes going to win a few rounds using the clinch alot. I dont think hes going to keep JDS on his back, but I think he can dirty box him against the cage. I just dont know if he can avoid getting knocked out for 25 minutes though. I think CV wins the 1st 2 maybe 3 rounds before getting caught.

I disagree with alot of your picks, but I do like JLO a little bit. I think theres some line value, but if it was a pickem I'd take Miller in a 3 rounder, because the wrestling should be the difference. That said Im taking the line value.

[Crowe Diddly]

I thought I was the only one who said JDS would beat Cain.

It went off at like +110 for JDS the first time, so people were pretty evenly split.

Fucking PSYCHED for the fights. Gonna be all snowing like a bastard outside here too, which always makes everything a little bit more fun. Lotta bad-ass fighters capable of a lotta highlight-type shit on this card. I still have a bet on Guillard hanging from the last card (the book wouldn't cancel the bet since the fight was immed rescheduled), but I'm much less confident this time, especially if his head is all angry and fucked up and shit. Should be fun and possibly spectacular either way.

So the big news, though, is obv Jon Anik replacing Goldie in the booth with Joe. Should be interesting to see how they mesh, but I'm sure it'll be fine.

[Crowe Diddly]

Just because its kinda awesome, here's Brad Pickett's usual walk-out music. Picture the hat, suspenders and cut-offs, and give a listen.



Wallop, he's gone down, wallop he's gone down

Now once there was a boxing match, and both the boys was up to scratch
One had the chat and all of the lip, but the bloke with the poke said he would put the lip to kip
The lip shouted come on son, I'll have this fight in one
The lip danced all around the boxing ring
But he poked his chin too far in and a big left hook on the chin he took and wallop!
He's gone down

They goes and builds a rocket ship, and three blokes they pushed inside of it
They counted down the fuse was lit, they said send it up best of luck lunatics
They told them boys you'll soon adjust, just bring us back some lunar dust
The captain he shouted down when they got there, ain't it hot in here, I need some air
He's pulled the latch and opened the hatch and wallop!
He's gone down

Wallop he's gone down, wallop he's gone down
Wallop he's gone down, wallop he's gone down

One day I thought I'd have a bet, although I never been lucky yet
" Musn't Grumble" was the name of the horse
And the bloke from the stables said He's gonna win of course
I listened to the radio, the commentator said hello, here they come over the final fence
All of a jumble neck and neck but Musn't Grumble took a tumble and wallop!
He's gone down

I parks me lorry round the back, I goes indoors to have a snack
All of a sudden I hears a noise, I thought oh no here we go them bleeding boys
I ran outside got hold of this yob, I says to him you wanna job
It's you that keeps sodding about with my back lights
He started to holler let go of me collar, he gives me a smack I hit him back and wallop!
He's gone down

[NaturalBornHustler]

Hockey Guy has a pretty good track record might have to bet a bunch of his picks tonight.

[ShadyJ]

I thought I was the only one who said JDS would beat Cain.

It went off at like +110 for JDS the first time, so people were pretty evenly split.

Fucking PSYCHED for the fights. Gonna be all snowing like a bastard outside here too, which always makes everything a little bit more fun. Lotta bad-ass fighters capable of a lotta highlight-type shit on this card. I still have a bet on Guillard hanging from the last card (the book wouldn't cancel the bet since the fight was immed rescheduled), but I'm much less confident this time, especially if his head is all angry and fucked up and shit. Should be fun and possibly spectacular either way.

So the big news, though, is obv Jon Anik replacing Goldie in the booth with Joe. Should be interesting to see how they mesh, but I'm sure it'll be fine.

Go back and check Donkdown no one liked JDS and thats when CMoney made the Shady is God thread, because I was nailing every fucking UFC underdog. I could be wrong but Im pretty sure JDS wasnt +110. If someone can check on this that would be great I know CMoney knows because he crushed it.

[Crowe Diddly]

I could be wrong but Im pretty sure JDS wasnt +110.

You are indeed wrong on this one.

[ShadyJ]

It went off at like +110 for JDS the first time, so people were pretty evenly split.

Fucking PSYCHED for the fights. Gonna be all snowing like a bastard outside here too, which always makes everything a little bit more fun. Lotta bad-ass fighters capable of a lotta highlight-type shit on this card. I still have a bet on Guillard hanging from the last card (the book wouldn't cancel the bet since the fight was immed rescheduled), but I'm much less confident this time, especially if his head is all angry and fucked up and shit. Should be fun and possibly spectacular either way.

So the big news, though, is obv Jon Anik replacing Goldie in the booth with Joe. Should be interesting to see how they mesh, but I'm sure it'll be fine.

Go back and check Donkdown no one liked JDS and thats when CMoney made the Shady is God thread, because I was nailing every fucking UFC underdog. I could be wrong but Im pretty sure JDS wasnt +110. If someone can check on this that would be great I know CMoney knows because he crushed it.

Dos Santos: +155 might have went off lower

[Crowe Diddly]

Go back and check Donkdown no one liked JDS and thats when CMoney made the Shady is God thread, because I was nailing every fucking UFC underdog. I could be wrong but Im pretty sure JDS wasnt +110. If someone can check on this that would be great I know CMoney knows because he crushed it.

Dos Santos: +155 might have went off lower

It did. The line went lower and lower all week, right up until the fight. What I posted above are the closing lines at the respective books.

[ShadyJ]

Obviously the line was pounded on fight day or the injury had the line drop but heres a story from bodog the day of the fight.


Tonight (Sat., Nov. 12, 2011) is a historic night. Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) invades the network television airwaves with its initial UFC on FOX broadcast from the Honda Center in Anaheim, California.

Though the card is packed full of fights that are sure to have fight fans -- new and old -- on their feet for the majority of the evening, only one fight will be broadcast on FOX, beginning at 9 p.m. ET.

The main event, Cain Velasquez vs Junior dos Santos, will be on full display. It's an advertisement to the mainstream world. It's a reason to start watching mixed martial arts (MMA), specifically the UFC's brand, for all of those who were previously unbelievers.

There's no telling what will actually happen. That's because in this unpredictable sport, anything can and often does happen. It's hard to say who will win, how and when it will occur in the fight, which is scheduled for five championship rounds. However, those minor details never stop us from speculating.

After the jump, check out the full and round-by-round odds (via Bodog.com) for "Velasquez vs. Dos Santos:"

For all you "prop bet"-loving Maniacs out there, this is the information you need to make a well-though out "investment" in tonight's historic action.

First off, there's the overall picture. Currently, the overall odds are:


Velasquez: -190

Dos Santos: +155

Interested in wagering on how this fight will finish? Here's what the odds look like for the "Result Props:"


Cain Velasquez wins inside distance: 5/6

Cain Velasquez wins by five round decision: 4/1

Junior dos Santos wins inside distance: 14/5

Junior dos Santos wins by 5 round decision: 8/1

Draw: 50/1

As you can see, the general consensus in the gambling community is that Velasquez will finish this fight inside the allotted five-round time period. But, if you a challenge and crave some adventure, you could win a buck or two by wagering that "Cignao" gets the finish before it's all said and done.

If you're really brave (and want to make a prospective killing), bet on this fight ending in a draw. We don't recommend it. You'd probably be better served by going out and buying yourself a lottery ticket.

The oddsmakers have also examined the odds regarding which round will be the round that sees this fight end. Here's what they came up with:


Cain Velasquez vs. Junior dos Santos completes 1 full round: -300

Cain Velasquez vs. Junior dos Santos won't complete 1 full round: +200




Cain Velasquez vs. Junior dos Santos completes 2 full rounds: -110

Cain Velasquez vs. Junior dos Santos won't complete 2 full rounds: -110




Cain Velasquez vs. Junior dos Santos completes 3 full rounds: +140

Cain Velasquez vs. Junior dos Santos won't complete 3 full rounds: -200




Cain Velasquez vs. Junior dos Santos completes 4 full rounds: +200

Cain Velasquez vs. Junior dos Santos won't complete 4 full rounds: -300

So there it is. Those are the full and detailed "prop bet" odds for "Velasquez vs. Dos Santos." For a more detailed UFC on FOX 1 betting guide and analysis, which inclues the best bets to make and the bets to avoid, be sure to check out our "UFC on FOX: Odds and betting guide for 'Velasquez vs dos Santos'" post right here.

Will any of you fine Maniacs be making any prop bet wagers this evening? Please, do tell.

[Hockey Guy]

Hockey Guy has a pretty good track record might have to bet a bunch of his picks tonight.

Good luck but remember, I haven't designated any as "locks" as this is a tough card because it looks like all the fights will be competitive on paper.

Garcia is definitely a flyer. I don't think he wins unless it goes to a decision & he seems to, because of his style(if you want to call it that), get odd judges decisions.

The more I think about Cariaso @ +170 the more I like him. The line has now moved to +138 so some late money has come in on him. This has entertainment written all over it.

As for JDS vs. Cain, I just thought the over the top praise for Cain in the pre-fight show was unwarranted. I had JDS all the way. That fucker is scary good on the feet & don't see Cain getting it to the mat this time around either. Injury or not, the KO the first time around wasn't a surprise to me.

I'm stoked for this card.

[ShadyJ]

Hockey Guy has a pretty good track record might have to bet a bunch of his picks tonight.

wanna make some small wagers?

Id take Okami and Varner. $20 each if either hits both we ship the $40 paypal? I'll do this with anyone that wants to if you have been around awhile.

[ShadyJ]

Hockey Guy has a pretty good track record might have to bet a bunch of his picks tonight.

Good luck but remember, I haven't designated any as "locks" as this is a tough card because it looks like all the fights will be competitive on paper.

Garcia is definitely a flyer. I don't think he wins unless it goes to a decision & he seems to, because of his style(if you want to call it that), get odd judges decisions.

The more I think about Cariaso @ +170 the more I like him. The line has now moved to +138 so some late money has come in on him. This has entertainment written all over it.

As for JDS vs. Cain, I just thought the over the top praise for Cain in the pre-fight show was unwarranted. I had JDS all the way. That fucker is scary good on the feet & don't see Cain getting it to the mat this time around either. Injury or not, the KO the first time around wasn't a surprise to me.

I'm stoked for this card.

Agreed

Some good fights but nothing im really excited to see other then the Main Event.

[ShadyJ]

Hockey Guy has a pretty good track record might have to bet a bunch of his picks tonight.

Good luck but remember, I haven't designated any as "locks" as this is a tough card because it looks like all the fights will be competitive on paper.
Garcia is definitely a flyer.I don't think he wins unless it goes to a decision & he seems to, because of his style(if you want to call it that), get odd judges decisions.

The more I think about Cariaso @ +170 the more I like him. The line has now moved to +138 so some late money has come in on him. This has entertainment written all over it.

As for JDS vs. Cain, I just thought the over the top praise for Cain in the pre-fight show was unwarranted. I had JDS all the way. That fucker is scary good on the feet & don't see Cain getting it to the mat this time around either. Injury or not, the KO the first time around wasn't a surprise to me.

I'm stoked for this card.

Im pretty sure they both had some serious injuries going into the fight, so thats a wash, but the location of that punch was a little bit lucky. Who knows it may have stopped Cain from a longer beating. Hopefully we find out tonight. I'm a huge JDS fan and hope he dominates for a long time hes just a great person.

[Hockey Guy]

Hockey Guy has a pretty good track record might have to bet a bunch of his picks tonight.

wanna make some small wagers?

Id take Okami and Varner. $20 each if either hits both we ship the $40 paypal? I'll do this with anyone that wants to if you have been around awhile.

I'll take Belcher for $20 straight up. I'm no touching Guillard though. He wins by first round KO or gets submitted.

Post here to book.

[Hockey Guy]

Im pretty sure they both had some serious injuries going into the fight, so thats a wash, but the location of that punch was a little bit lucky. Who knows it may have stopped Cain from a longer beating. Hopefully we find out tonight. I'm a huge JDS fan and hope he dominates for a long time hes just a great person.

Exactly. Both guys were injured. Cain plays the excuses down now but somebody in his camp made sure everybody knew he was injured. I still don't think it makes a difference. I predict TKO2.

[ShadyJ]

wanna make some small wagers?

Id take Okami and Varner. $20 each if either hits both we ship the $40 paypal? I'll do this with anyone that wants to if you have been around awhile.

I'll take Belcher for $20 straight up. I'm no touching Guillard though. He wins by first round KO or gets submitted.

Post here to book.

What I cant get the dog at even money?

[Hockey Guy]

I'll take Belcher for $20 straight up. I'm no touching Guillard though. He wins by first round KO or gets submitted.

Post here to book.

What I cant get the dog at even money?

Nope. 2 totally inconsistent guys. I wouldn't bet either one. Should be a good fight though.

[cmoney]

MY BETS

500 ON CAIN SUBMISSION @ 22-1
500 ON JDS SUBMISSION @ 10-1
500 ON A DRAW @ 100-1 (LOL)

AND BIG BETS ON A FEW DOGS.

[simpdog]

Hockey Guy has a pretty good track record might have to bet a bunch of his picks tonight.

Good luck but remember, I haven't designated any as "locks" as this is a tough card because it looks like all the fights will be competitive on paper.

Garcia is definitely a flyer. I don't think he wins unless it goes to a decision & he seems to, because of his style(if you want to call it that), get odd judges decisions.

The more I think about Cariaso @ +170 the more I like him. The line has now moved to +138 so some late money has come in on him. This has entertainment written all over it.

As for JDS vs. Cain, I just thought the over the top praise for Cain in the pre-fight show was unwarranted. I had JDS all the way. That fucker is scary good on the feet & don't see Cain getting it to the mat this time around either. Injury or not, the KO the first time around wasn't a surprise to me.

I'm stoked for this card.

Just read an article about Garcia and how he's fighting for his career....I think he's pumped.

I still like the main event under 1.5 rds. Can someone tell me why this doesn't happen? I guess if Cain holds him up against the cage for all of round 1 maybe it doesn't, but I see this being a KO either way within first 2 rds.